Adjusting AAFC’s supply and demand estimates with today’s lower stocks estimate, 2019-20 crop year supplies could be over 1 million metric tons lower than 2018-19 and stocks could be destined to fall for a third consecutive year to a level below the previous five-year average. Of course, harvest is pending and bears watching.
Statistics Canada estimated Canada’s soybean stocks at a record 700,000 mt on Aug. 31, up from 651,000 mt a year earlier and just slightly higher than the estimate utilized by AAFC in its September supply and demand tables. Today’s data release shows farm stocks falling by 33.6% to 95,300 mt year-over-year, while commercial stocks were reported to rise by 19% to 604,500 mt. Despite the jump in stocks, the stocks/use ratio for 2018-19 is calculated at a bullish 8.2%, unchanged from the previous crop year.
Final estimates for 2018-19 show significant imports of 1.1 mmt, up 181% from the five-year average volume of imports.
Current AAFC estimates for 2019-20 soybeans points to production forecast to fall due to lower seeded acres and yield, imports to fall to more traditional volumes and both export and domestic demand to fall slightly. Ending stocks for 2019-20 are estimated at roughly 450,000 mt, which would be below the five-year average, while actual harvest data remains pending. The largest wildcard for soybeans remains the potential for a return of Chinese business, with little more than a trickle flowing to this country each month in the 2019 calendar year.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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