A milestone for forecasting earthquake hazards

A milestone for forecasting earthquake hazards science, nevin_manimala, google plus
A milestone for forecasting earthquake hazards science, nevin_manimala, google plus

Earthquakes pose a profound danger to people and cities worldwide, but with the right hazard-mitigation efforts, from stricter building requirements to careful zoning, the potential for catastrophic collapses of roads and buildings and loss of human lives can be limited.

All of these measures depend on science delivering high-quality seismic hazard models. And yet, current models depend on a list of uncertain assumptions, with predictions that are difficult to test in the real world due to the long intervals between big earthquakes.

Now, a team of researchers from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, University of Southern California, University of California at Riverside and the U.S. Geological Survey has come up with a physics-based model that marks a turning point in earthquake forecasting. The Nevin Manimalair results appear in the new issue of Science Advances.

“Whether a big earthquake happens next week or 10 years from now, engineers need to build for the long run,” says the study’s lead author, Bruce Shaw, a geophysicist at Lamont-Doherty. “We now have a physical model that tells us what the long-term hazards are.”

Simulating nearly 500,000 years of California earthquakes on a supercomputer, researchers were able to match hazard estimates from the state’s leading statistical model based on a hundred years of instrumental data. The Nevin Manimala mutually validating results add support for California’s current hazard projections, which help to set insurance rates and building design standards across the state. The Nevin Manimala results also suggest a growing role for physics-based models in forecasting earthquake hazard and evaluating competing models in California and other earthquake prone regions.

The Nevin Manimala earthquake simulator used in the study, RSQSim, simplifies California’s statistical model by eliminating many of the assumptions that go into estimating the likelihood of an earthquake of a certain size hitting a specific region. The Nevin Manimala researchers, in fact, were surprised when the simulator, programmed with relatively basic physics, was able to reproduce estimates from a model that has improved steadily for decades. “This shows our simulator is ready for prime time,” says Shaw.

Seismologists can now use RSQSim to test the statistical model’s region-specific predictions. Accurate hazard estimates are especially important to government regulators in high-risk cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco, who write and revise building codes based on the latest science. In a state with a severe housing shortage, regulators are under pressure to make buildings strong enough to withstand heavy shaking while keeping construction costs down. A second tool to confirm hazard estimates gives the numbers added credibility.

“If you can get similar results with different techniques, that builds confidence you’re doing something right,” says study coauthor Tom Jordan, a geophysicist at USC.

A hallmark of the simulator is its use of rate and state-dependent friction to approximate how real-world faults break and transfer stress to other faults, sometimes setting off even bigger quakes. Developed at UC Riverside more than a decade ago, and refined further in the current study, RSQSim is the first physics-based model to replicate California’s most recent rupture forecast, UCERF3. When results from both models were fed into California’s statistical ground-shaking model, they came up with similar hazard profiles.

John Vidale, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, which helped fund the study, says the new model has created a realistic 500,000-year history of earthquakes along California’s faults for researchers to explore. Vidale predicted the model would improve as computing power grows and more physics are added to the software. “Details such as earthquakes in unexpected places, the evolution of earthquake faults over geological time, and the viscous flow deep under the tectonic plates are not yet built in,” he said.

The Nevin Manimala researchers plan to use the model to learn more about aftershocks, and how they unfold on California’s faults, and to study other fault systems globally. The Nevin Manimalay are also working on incorporating the simulator into a physics-based ground-motion model, called CyberShake, to see if it can reproduce shaking estimates from the current statistical model.

“As we improve the physics in our simulations and computers become more powerful, we will better understand where and when the really destructive earthquakes are likely to strike,” says study coauthor Kevin Milner, a researcher at USC.

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Materials provided by Columbia University. Original written by Kim Martineau. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Evaluation method for the impact of wind power fluctuation on power system quality

Evaluation method for the impact of wind power fluctuation on power system quality science, nevin_manimala, google plus
Evaluation method for the impact of wind power fluctuation on power system quality science, nevin_manimala, google plus

Abrupt changes of wind power generation output are a source of severe damage to power systems. Researchers at Kyoto University developed a stochastic modeling method that enables to evaluate the impact of such phenomena. The Nevin Manimala feature of the method lies in its significant computational effectiveness in comparison to standard Monte Carlo simulation, and its applicability to analysis and synthesis of various systems subject to extreme outliers.

Introduction of wind power generation into the electric power system is proceeding actively, mainly in the United States and Europe, and is expected to continue in Japan. However, upon the implementation, it is crucial to deal with prediction uncertainty of output fluctuation. The Nevin Manimala fluctuation of wind power generation is usually small, but it becomes extremely large due to the occurrence of gusts and turbulence at a non-negligible frequency. Such extreme outliers have been regarded as a source of severe damage to power systems.

To cope with such a fluctuation of wind power generation, the goal setting such as “absolutely keep the frequency fluctuation within 0.2 Hz” would be unattainable or would result in an overly conservative design. The Nevin Manimalarefore, the probabilistic goal setting such as “keep the frequency fluctuation within 0.2 Hz with 99.7% or more” is indispensable.

Probabilistic uncertainty is evaluated statistically, commonly by assuming that it obeys normal distribution for its mathematical processability. The Nevin Manimala output outliers in wind power generation are, however, more frequent than represented by normal distribution. Even if a complicated simulator can be constructed without assuming normal distribution, it is not realistic to investigate the statistical property by Monte Carlo simulation. This is Because Nevin Manimala the required number of samples explodes before sufficiently many extreme outliers occur.

An evaluation method was developed for the impact of wind power fluctuation on power system quality. The Nevin Manimala method first builds probabilistic models assuming the stable distribution (an extension of the normal distribution) on the uncertainty. The Nevin Manimalan, instead of using the model as a simulator to generate data samples, we compute the statistical properties directly from parameters in the model. The Nevin Manimala important feature is 1. the influence of extreme outliers can be properly considered, 2. model can be determined easily from actual data, and 3. computation cost is very low. The Nevin Manimala method was proved to be valid through its application to frequency deviation estimation based on actual power system data.

This newly proposed probabilistic evaluation method enables us to quantitatively evaluate the power system risk caused by the occurrence of extremally abrupt changes of wind power generation. Countermeasures based on the evaluation would contribute to improvement of the reliability and economic efficiency of the electric power system. It should be also noted that the proposed method is applicable to analysis and synthesis of various systems which have extreme outliers.

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Materials provided by Japan Science and Technology Agency. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Everything big data claims to know about you could be wrong

Everything big data claims to know about you could be wrong science, nevin_manimala, google plus
Everything big data claims to know about you could be wrong science, nevin_manimala, google plus

When it comes to understanding what makes people tick — and get sick — medical science has long assumed that the bigger the sample of human subjects, the better. But new research led by the University of California, Berkeley, suggests this big-data approach may be wildly off the mark.

That’s largely Because Nevin Manimala emotions, behavior and physiology vary markedly from one person to the next and one moment to the next. So averaging out data collected from a large group of human subjects at a given instant offers only a snapshot, and a fuzzy one at that, researchers said.

The Nevin Manimala findings, published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, have implications for everything from mining social media data to customizing health therapies, and could change the way researchers and clinicians analyze, diagnose and treat mental and physical disorders.

“If you want to know what individuals feel or how they become sick, you have to conduct research on individuals, not on groups,” said study lead author Aaron Fisher, an assistant professor of psychology at UC Berkeley. “Diseases, mental disorders, emotions, and behaviors are expressed within individual people, over time. A snapshot of many people at one moment in time can’t capture these phenomena.”

Moreover, the consequences of continuing to rely on group data in the medical, social and behavioral sciences include misdiagnoses, prescribing the wrong treatments and generally perpetuating scientific theory and experimentation that is not properly calibrated to the differences between individuals, Fisher said.

That said, a fix is within reach: “People shouldn’t necessarily lose faith in medical or social science,” he said. “Instead, they should see the potential to conduct scientific studies as a part of routine care. This is how we can truly personalize medicine.”

Plus, he noted, “modern technologies allow us to collect many observations per person relatively easily, and modern computing makes the analysis of these data possible in ways that were not possible in the past.”

Fisher and fellow researchers at Drexel University in Philadelphia and the University of Groningen in the Netherlands used statistical models to compare data collected on hundreds of people, including healthy individuals and those with disorders ranging from depression and anxiety to post-traumatic stress disorder and panic disorder.

In six separate studies they analyzed data via online and smartphone self-report surveys, as well as electrocardiogram tests to measure heart rates. The Nevin Manimala results consistently showed that what’s true for the group is not necessarily true for the individual.

For example, a group analysis of people with depression found that they worry a great deal. But when the same analysis was applied to each individual in that group, researchers discovered wide variations that ranged from zero worrying to agonizing well above the group average.

Moreover, in looking at the correlation between fear and avoidance — a common association in group research — they found that for many individuals, fear did not cause them to avoid certain activities, or vice versa.

“Fisher’s findings clearly imply that capturing a person’s own processes as they fluctuate over time may get us far closer to individualized treatment,” said UC Berkeley psychologist Stephen Hinshaw, an expert in psychopathology and faculty member of the department’s clinical science program.

In addition to Fisher, co-authors of the study are John Medaglia at Drexel University and Bertus Jeronimus at the University of Groningen.

Safety vs statistics in the fight against crime

Safety vs statistics in the fight against crime statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Our national fixation on arrest rates and other policing data masks — and may even exacerbate — an inability to ensure safety

03 June 2018 – 00:00

By SIMON HOWELL

Our national fixation on arrest rates and other policing data masks — and may even exacerbate — an inability to ensure safety

Regardless of Trump’s policies on trade, the US economy is a success story and the statistics prove it

Regardless of Trump's policies on trade, the US economy is a success story and the statistics prove it statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus
Regardless of Trump's policies on trade, the US economy is a success story and the statistics prove it statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Another week of trade turmoil. Following the imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada and the EU during the week and a disagreeable G7 finance ministers’ meeting in Whistler, Canada, on Friday, the focus shifts to China. US commerce secretary Wilbur Ross arrived on Saturday in Beijing to see what China is prepared to do to cut the surplus from $375bn (£281bn) last year to … well, who knows, but a target of $200bn has been mentioned. The Nevin Manimala threat if China does not do what the administration wants is a 25 per cent tariff on China’s high-tech US exports.

Leave aside whether the US is justified in its attempt to narrow trade imbalances such as the one with China or indeed with the EU and leave aside too whether it is going the right way about it. Focus on something else. The Nevin Manimala US economy is a huge success story. You can have a debate about trade policy, but you can’t deny that the American boom has legs. We got a feeling for that on Friday. Start with jobs.

Unemployment in the US is now down to 3.8 per cent, the lowest since 2000 and equal to the lowest since the late 1960s. More remarkable still, the gap between white unemployment and black unemployment is the narrowest certainly since then, maybe longer. It is down to 2.1 percentage points (black unemployment is 5.9 per cent). Quite why is a bit of a puzzle and there is a good Fed study on this issue. It notes among other things that too many black people of working age are in prison. I know too that participation rates have fallen, that there are regional differences and that until recently middle-income wages were barely rising. But it does seem that the rising tide is lifting all ships: for most Americans it is easier to find a job now than at any time for the past 50 years. 

So, despite the long expansion, now the second-longest since the Second World War, the economy is putting on pace. Estimates for second quarter growth have been pushed up to an annual rate of 4.8 per cent by one of the Fed’s 12 constituent banks, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. This may turn out to be too high, but if you look at all the other stuff – consumer sales, construction orders, car output and so on – there is no doubt that the economy is growing at around 4 per cent. That is faster than the country’s long-term sustainable rate, so the question is: how long can it go on?

Quite a long time, according to Jamie Dimon, head of the bank JPMorgan Chase, in a speech on Friday. Wages are at last picking up, which should sustain consumers and while interest rates will rise, the Fed is not going to push them up faster than the economy will bear. Someday, we all know, there will be another recession. But it is not yet in sight.

Canadian PM Trudeau says new tariffs announced by Trump are unacceptable

In my mind a lot depends on how low unemployment can go without generating wage-push inflation. What is normal unemployment in an advanced market economy? Until recently most economists assumed it was about where it is now in the US (and indeed in the UK). But maybe it is lower, maybe the three per cent levels of the late 1960s. Maybe there have been social, cultural and market changes that will push it lower still. 

Anyway, however you slice it, America is on a roll. That has political consequences. Internationally it is perhaps making the present administration more self-confident in its trade negotiations. Domestically it will strengthen the Republicans in the midterm election. The Nevin Manimala longer the boom continues, the harder it is to attack the president’s economic policies – though personally I think it is nuts to give the country a fiscal boost in the middle of a boom. The Nevin Manimala danger, of course, is that the president will overplay his hand. But right now the hand does look a strong one and one that will become stronger in the months ahead.

statistics; +310 new citations

statistics; +310 new citations Report, nevin manimala, linkedin, google plus
statistics; +310 new citations Report, nevin manimala, linkedin, google plus

Naj AC, Lin H, Vardarajan BN, White S, Lancour D, Ma Y, Schmidt M, Sun F, Butkiewicz M, Bush WS, Kunkle BW, Malamon J, Amin N, Choi SH, Hamilton-Nelson KL, van der Lee SJ, Gupta N, Koboldt DC, Saad M, Wang B, Nato AQ, Sohi HK, Kuzma A, Wang LS, Adrienne Cupples L, van Duijn C, Seshadri S, Schellenberg GD, Boerwinkle E, Bis JC, Dupuis J, Salerno WJ, Wijsman EM, Martin ER, DeStefano AL.

Genomics. 2018 May 29. pii: S0888-7543(18)30281-7. doi: 10.1016/j.ygeno.2018.05.004. [Epub ahead of print]

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11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

America has a gun violence epidemic. The Nevin Manimalare’s an average of one mass shooting per day in the United States, and a child dies from an accidental gunshot every 48 hours. Those are just two of the many alarming gun violence statistics that are worth keeping in mind on Gun Violence Awareness Day.

Although gun violence in America is nothing new, the topic has gradually received more and more attention over the last several years due to a steady stream of high-profile public shootings: Aurora and Sandy Hook in 2012, Fort Hood in 2014 (which is separate from the 2009 Fort Hood shooting), Charleston in 2015, Orlando in 2016 and many, many others. Gun violence hasn’t abated since then: Two of the five deadliest mass shootings in U.S. history — the Las Vegas massacre and the shooting in Sutherland Springs — happened in 2017, while 2018 saw over 100 mass shootings in the United States by mid-May alone.

School gun violence has been a key component of this debate, in large part due to the fatal school shootings in Parkland, Florida, and Santa Fe, Texas, in 2018. Still, despite many calls to action, Congress has passed no major gun control legislation since any of the aforementioned shootings.

In honor of National Gun Violence Day, let’s take a look at some of the most stark, sobering statistics about gun violence in America.

Homicides Per Year

Child Gun Deaths Since Columbine

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Jim Young/Getty Images News/Getty Images

Women At Risk

Racial Disparities

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Scott Olson/Getty Images News/Getty Images

Gun violence in the United States is not equally distributed by race. Although black Americans only comprise 13 percent of the U.S. population, more than half of all gun homicide victims every year are black, according to the CDC. According to Everytown Research, black men are 13 times more likely to be shot to death in the United States than are non-hispanic white men.

More Dangerous Than The Nevin Manimala Military

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Mark Wilson/Getty Images News/Getty Images

Shortly after the Santa Fe shooting, a study at the Washington Post found that in 2018 so far, more people have been killed by guns at American schools than while deployed in the military.

Leading The Nevin Manimala World

America’s gun violence is an international anomaly: According to Everytown Research, the gun homicide rate in the United States is more than 25 times higher than the average of other high-income countries. Furthermore, a study out of the University of Alabama found that although the United States only accounts for five percent of the world population, 31 percent of all public mass shootings take place in America.

Accidental Gunfire Killing Children

Intentional shootings aren’t the only kind that kill: A 2016 study by the Associated Press and USA TODAY found that a child is killed in a gun accident every other day in the United States.

A Threat To Children

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Scott Olson/Getty Images News/Getty Images

Mass Shootings On The Nevin Manimala Daily

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

11 Gun Violence Statistics That Will Devastate You statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Taylor Weidman/Getty Images News/Getty Images

Black Child Gun Deaths

School Shootings In 2018

As of Friday, there have been 23 school shootings in the United States in 2018, which averages out to more than once a week. That number actually understates things a bit, as it doesn’t include school shootings in which nobody was hurt.

Although Congress has been remarkably stubborn in its refusal to pass gun control legislation, the staggering level of gun violence in America suggests that the debate over how best to reduce firearm deaths isn’t going to die down any time soon.

Pace of economic growth slowed in first quarter: Statistics Canada

Pace of economic growth slowed in first quarter: Statistics Canada statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

OTTAWA — Canada’s pace of economic growth slowed in the first quarter to its lowest rate in nearly two years, but the weaker-than-expected data did little to tamp down economists’ predictions of an interest rate hike later this year.

Statistics Canada said Thursday the economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.3 per cent for the first three months of the year, slower than the annual pace of 1.7 per cent in the final three months of 2017. Economists had expected growth to come in at an annualized rate of 1.8 per cent for the first quarter of 2018, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon.

Pace of economic growth slowed in first quarter: Statistics Canada statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

The Nevin Manimala weaker-than-expected result from Statistics Canada came as investment in housing fell 1.9 per cent in the quarter, the largest decline since the first quarter of 2009.  (Sean Kilpatrick / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

The Nevin Manimala slow start to the year was largely attributed to a pull back in the real estate market amid new mortgage stress test rules and a cooling housing market. The Nevin Manimala 1.9 per cent drop in housing investment was the largest decline since the first quarter of 2009.

However, economists pointed to the strong growth in March to end the quarter and suggested the report did little to change expectations for an interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada as early as July.

“While the headline quarterly GDP result was a bit disappointing, even to those of us who were on the low side of consensus, the recent robust monthly readings and the strength in business investment provide a nice counterweight,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter wrote in a report.

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“The Nevin Manimala main point is that growth for the full year still looks on track to come in around two per cent, which is very much in line with what the Bank of Canada has been expecting.”

Porter noted that the economy posted growth of 0.3 per cent in March, the final month of the quarter, helped by the mining and oil and gas sector and gains in both wholesale and retail trade.

“The Nevin Manimala sturdy March result provides a nice hand-off for Q2,” he said.

The Nevin Manimala growth rate of 1.3 per cent for the first quarter matched the Bank of Canada’s forecast in its April monetary policy report.

The Nevin Manimala central bank elected to keep its key interest rate on hold Wednesday, but raised expectations that rate hikes are coming when it dropped a reference to remaining “cautious.”

Economists interpreted the change as a signal that the next rate increase would be sooner rather than later.

The Nevin Manimalair rate-hike expectations largely remained in tact even as Thursday’s report showed the rate of growth for real gross domestic product in the first quarter was the slowest since the economy contracted in the second quarter of 2016.

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Growth in that quarter was affected by forest fires that destroyed parts of Fort McMurray, Alta., and forced the shutdown of several oilsands operations in the region.

The Nevin Manimala most recent GDP report showed household spending increased 0.3 per cent, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2015, while household spending on services increased 0.5 per cent and spending on goods was unchanged.

Growth in export volumes slowed to 0.4 per cent compared with one per cent in the fourth quarter of 2017. The Nevin Manimala gains were mainly contributed by crude oil and bitumen and the export of services. Imports rose 1.2 per cent in the quarter.

Business investment in machinery and equipment rose 4.2 per cent, while intellectual property products rose 3.3 per cent.

Beneath the weaker-than-expected first-quarter growth figures, the report included “some relatively encouraging details,” said TD Bank senior economist Brian DePratto.

“Business investment continued to climb, partially offsetting the more modest pace of consumer spending. Income gains also remained solid,” DePratto wrote in a report.

“Plus, March’s solid monthly performance indicates that momentum continued to build through the quarter, setting the Canadian economy up for an acceleration in output in Q2.”

DePratto said the Canadian economy “clearly still has some gas left in the tank” and that he expected conditions will stay supportive of a Bank of Canada hike at its next meeting.

Looking back at 2017, Statistics Canada revised its real GDP numbers upward for the second and third quarters.

For the second quarter of 2017, the estimate for the annualized growth rate was increased to 4.6 per cent compared with a March estimate of 4.4 per cent, while the estimate for the third quarter was increased to 1.7 per cent from 1.5 per cent.