J Med Internet Res. 2021 May 1. doi: 10.2196/28876. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested associations between trends of web searches and COVID-19 traditional metrics. It remains unclear whether models incorporating trends of digital searches lead to better predictions.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between Google Trends searches of symptoms associated with COVID-19 and confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. To develop predictive models to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic based on the combination of Google Trends searches of symptoms and conventional COVID-19 metrics.
METHODS: An open-access web application was developed to evaluate Google Trends and traditional COVID-19 metrics via an interactive framework based on principal components analysis (PCA) and time series modeling. The app facilitates the analysis of symptom search behavior associated with COVID-19 disease in 188 countries. In this study, we selected data of eight countries as case studies to represent all continents. PCA was used to perform data dimensionality reduction, and three different time series models (Error Trend Seasonality, Autoregressive integrated moving average, and feed-forward neural network autoregression) were used to predict COVID-19 metrics in the upcoming 14 days. The models were compared in terms of prediction ability using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the first principal component (PC1). The predictive abilities of models generated with both Google Trends data and conventional COVID-19 metrics were compared with those fitted with conventional COVID-19 metrics only.
RESULTS: The degree of correlation and the best time-lag varied as a function of the selected country and topic searched; in general, the optimal time lag was within 15 days. Overall, predictions of PC1 based on both searched termed and COVID-19 traditional metrics performed better than those not including Google searches (median [IQR]: 1.56 [0.90-2.49] vs. 1.87 [1.09-2.95], respectively), but the improvement in prediction varied as a function of the selected country and timeframe. The best model varied as a function of country, time range, and period of time selected. Models based on a 7-day moving average led to considerably smaller RMSE values as opposed to those calculated with raw data (median [IQR]: 0.90 [0.50-1.53] vs. 2.27 [1.62-3.74], respectively).
CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of digital online searches in statistical models may improve the nowcasting and forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic and could be used as one of the surveillance systems of COVID-19 disease. We provide a free web application operating with nearly real-time data that anyone can use to make predictions of outbreaks, improve estimates of dynamics of ongoing epidemics, and anticipate future or rebound waves.
PMID:34156966 | DOI:10.2196/28876
