LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: Boiling Bulls

LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: Boiling Bulls statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus

If you throw a frog into boiling water, the frog jumps right out. If you place a frog in a pot and boil the water slowly, the frog stays put, blind to the impending danger. I never want to meet the sadistic human who figured this out, but the analogy seems appropriate for natural gas bulls trapped in a lower for longer price environment.

From March 1st through mid July, the continental U.S. experienced incredibly bullish weather for nat gas consumption that defies historical statistics. Cold temps led to unprecedented April withdrawals shaving ~210 BCF from EIA storage vs. five-year average comps. The “April ice box” for the upper half of the country immediately turned into super hot South Central weather with Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana on fire supporting demand in the critically important Henry Hub region. For new readers, natural gas pricing is determined at the Henry Hub in Louisiana which has been the largest and most important natural gas trading point for the past 40+ years.

Frac’ing flipped the natural gas universe upside down starting in 2008, and widespread efficiency advancements are allowing producers to increase output with lower capital spending than ever before. You can see this clearly in any long-term price chart plotting L48 gas production against Henry Hub spot. For some reason, the bull camp will turn to any alternative thesis to justify natty’s imminent return to higher pricing. The most popular consensus opinions at the moment are huge LNG export demand coming in 2019 along with marginal production cost being higher than ~$2.60. Following closely behind is the idea that pipeline limitations from the Permian will limit production growth. This one truly has me scratching my head. All three are wrong, and we’ll get into the reasons why in my next article.

Outside of a low probability, short-term winter weather event, $4+ pricing is not happening anytime soon. There’s simply too much natural gas in North America for $4 pricing to return unless we enter the next Ice Age and Canada stops selling gas to the L48.

After close to 5 months of bullish weather, longer-range forecasts turned neutral/bearish for the second half of July and beyond early this month. Prices barely made it above $3 at the height of the heat wave in late June, and quickly crumbled below $2.75 as traders were reminded weather can go both ways. The market is always sending signals to the open minded, and the fact prices couldn’t hold above $3 despite an unusually long stretch of bullish weather is the biggest bearish data point of all.

Here’s the CME price curve into early 2019:

LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: Boiling Bulls statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus

Source: CME Futures website

The CME curve is telling you the market is not worried about the twin EIA storage deficit. This is not a surprise to anyone who read my April article “Losing My Religion” detailing the reasons why historical EIA storage averages are no longer the right way to forecast future price direction.

The old model was far away production fields in Texas and Louisiana feeding storage facilities in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through narrow pipes. Storage was needed near the end markets to service local winter demand given the limited capacity of the long-haul pipes during peak cold weather. Gauging prices based on storage differentials made a lot of sense when the old model ruled the kingdom.

Frac’ing has consistently dismantled the old model for the past 10 years, and the Appalachian production miracle was a happy accident adding fuel to the fire. No one expected the world’s most prolific shale gas basin to be located next to some of the largest demand centers on the planet. The Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions are building out midstream capacity improvements to get low-cost Appalachian gas to these key markets. Perhaps we’ll finally see a new pipeline to NY/New England given the incredible benefits of having clean, domestically produced natural gas less than 200 miles away in Pennsylvania.

The new model is built on high capacity pipelines connecting Appalachian production centers to local distribution hubs given the close proximity to major markets. The collective huge production capacity of the EIA South Central region will be used to satisfy LNG export and Mexican demand increases. The Eagle Ford, Permian, Haynesville and Anadarko shales have higher combined dry gas output than Appalachia. Storage is not totally irrelevant, but as we discussed in “Losing My Religion”, historical EIA averages are the wrong metric to use with monster pipelines like Rover, Atlantic Sunrise, Nexus, MVP, Leach Express, etc. expanding outbound capacity in all directions. Yes, there will be delays and explosions and the occasional hiccup. Bigger picture, over the next 24 months, significant new midstream capacity increases will cement the pivotal roles of Appalachia and the South Central shales for the North American gas market.

Gas prices are likely to stay in the $2.55 to $2.95 trading range for the next two to three weeks until the market gets clarity on August/September weather. EIA’s year-over-year storage comparisons are weak through late October. Traders are playing it cautious given there are only 42 days until September 1st. With the end of summer staring directly at the market, traders will focus on weather as the major demand catalyst. Aggressive traders should consider DGAZ between $25 and $26 and UGAZ near $49-51 as prices fluctuate rapidly on weather expectations. It would take substantial bullish weather to prevent large September/October injections, and that will be a headwind for the market until we get to winter. On the flip side, significant bearish weather cannot be ruled out. If August weather fizzles and September is average, there will be a tsunami of physical gas in the market with substantial pipeline capacity scheduled to come online by November 15th. Traders should maintain a bearish outlook heading into the fall, but that doesn’t mean you ignore the occasional long opportunity.

Rigs, DUCs, WTI, and Midstream continue to be the dominant factors impacting the price curve. Specifically, I’m watching Appalachian DUC inventory and weekly production trends.

Thank you for reading and good luck with your trades. Looking forward to your comments and feedback. If you enjoyed this article, please click “Follow” under my profile.

Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL, GOOG, LNG, FOX, FB, DIS, NFLX, MSFT.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I frequently trade UGAZ/DGAZ and UWT/DWT. Active trades are posted in the comments under my latest article.

16 statistics that show how Louisiana’s children are struggling

16 statistics that show how Louisiana's children are struggling statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus
16 statistics that show how Louisiana's children are struggling statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus

Terrapin Flyer, Creative Commons

Children in poverty

Kathleen Flynn, NOLA.com l The Times-Picayune

Children in poverty

Children whose parents lack secure employment

AP Photo/Annie Rice

Children whose parents lack secure employment

Children in households with a high housing cost

John McCusker, The Times-Picayune archive

Children in households with a high housing cost

Teens neither in school nor employed

Matt Rose, Times-Picayune archive

Teens neither in school nor employed

The mind-boggling statistics from Tash Sultana’s world tour

The mind-boggling statistics from Tash Sultana's world tour statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus

In the last 18 months, Melbourne’s Tash Sultana has toured 20 countries, travelled 414,187 kilometres, and even made music history in London – all before the release of a debut album.

The next leg of the self-taught multi-instrumentalist’s tour kicks off on Tuesday (July 24) in New Zealand. Her schedule has her continuing to travel the globe until November 2019 with what’s expected to be one the most exciting LPs to come out of Australia, the yet-to-be-released Flow State (out August 31).

From bedroom videos and street busking, to the world stage at festivals like Austin City Limits, Appletree Garden, and Coachella, and on US sign-post slots like NPR, and Late Night With Seth Meyers, Tash Sultana is one of Australia’s proudest exports.

Not only is she pulling unparalleled live numbers, both at home and overseas, she’s still riding the wave of her Notion EP, which took out three spots on the triple j Hottest 100 and grabbed her a Top 10 spot on the ARIA chart.

The mind-boggling statistics from Tash Sultana's world tour statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plusMonterey, CA. Photo: Dara Munnis.

To better understand just how mind-boggling her achievements are from the last 18 months alone, we’ve put together a few statistics from her Notion World Tour, featuring the number of days she’s spent travelling, the number of crew members she has, the percentage of her life that’s been spent on tour, and more.

20 mind-boggling statistics from Tash Sultana’s world tour

20 countries visited, including United States, Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Germany, Ireland, Italy and United Kingdom.

15,000 tickets in London sold at Brixton Academy. Fun fact: Tash Sultana is the first artist in world to sell out three dates at Brixton without an album released.

12,500 tickets sold in Amsterdam

12,000 tickets in Cologne, in Western Germany

12,000 tickets sold in Berlin

5,000 tickets sold in Zurich

3,000 tickets sold in Milan

55,000 tickets sold in Europe this September

7,400 tickets sold at Melbourne’s Margaret Court Arena last December, the venue’s biggest-ever attendance record for a local or international act.

The mind-boggling statistics from Tash Sultana's world tour statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plusGeorge, WA. Photo: Dara Munnis.

6,500 tickets sold in Toronto for this August

5,000 tickets sold at Shrine Auditorium in LA

200M Spotify streams off her Notion EP

245 shows in the past 18 months

414, 187 kilometres travelled in the past 18 months

257, 376 miles travelled in the past 18 months

972 days spent travelling

8.34% of Tash Sultana’s life so far has been spent on this world tour

1.1, the number of trips to the moon Tash could have taken with the distance she travelled

8.8, the number of times Tash could have circled the Earth with the distance she travelled

10 crew members

The mind-boggling statistics from Tash Sultana's world tour statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plusGeorge, WA. Photo: Dara Munnis.


How a 9-Year-Old Boy’s Statistic Shaped a Debate on Straws

How a 9-Year-Old Boy's Statistic Shaped a Debate on Straws statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus
How a 9-Year-Old Boy's Statistic Shaped a Debate on Straws statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus

That figure, just over 170 million straws per day, does not include those purchased for home use or attached to juice boxes, among other uses. But, even if it did, it’s unlikely that the estimate would be as high as 500 million, said David Henkes, a senior principal at the firm.

“I don’t believe that consumers are using another couple hundred million straws at home every day,” he said.

Freedonia Group, a market research firm that covers a broad range of industries, arrived at a higher estimate: 142 billion straws last year, or 390 million per day.

For both firms, rigorous analysis is critical, as clients rely on the data they provide to make business and investment decisions.

The estimates, part of broader reports on food service products, relied on interviews with businesses all along the supply chain, from manufacturers of disposable packaging to distributors to customers. They represent months of work by teams that included analysts and economic experts.

The Foodservice Packaging Institute, an 85-year-old trade association, would not share its internal figures, saying only that it estimates that fewer than 250 million straws are used each day, within the range given by the consultants.

But that’s besides the point, the institute’s president, Lynn Dyer, said in an email.

“Whether it’s 500 million or 500 a day, we shouldn’t lose sight of the real issue: Straws should be disposed of properly and should never, ever be littered on land or in waterways,” she said.

Mr. Cress, who will be a high school senior this fall in Shelburne, Vt., agrees that the precise number is less important than the waste: “We use far too many straws than we need to, and really almost any number is higher than it needs to be.”

Long-term fall in crime is over as statistics show spike in robbery and murder

Long-term fall in crime is over as statistics show spike in robbery and murder statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus
Long-term fall in crime is over as statistics show spike in robbery and murder statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus

The government has been warned it is “sleepwalking into a nightmare” as new figures show murder, robbery and stabbings increasing sharply in England and Wales.

The number of police officers has hit a record low, amid claims funding cuts have driven up violent crime and “encouraged” offenders.

Almost half of all criminal investigations have been closed with no suspect identified, and the proportion ending with someone being charged or summonsed to court fell to just 9 per cent in the year to March.

Diane Abbott MP, the shadow home secretary, said: “With violent crime increasing and detection rates falling so fast, it’s clear the police desperately need our support. 

“But this Tory government has broken its promise to protect funding, with police funding cut in real terms and fewer police officers on our streets. 

“While the government continues to deny any link between the rise in serious crime and the cuts to police officer numbers, today we see what an appalling and traumatic impact Theresa May’s decisions have had on our society.

As home secretary, Ms May told police officers to stop “crying wolf” about the impact of budget cuts in 2015, but her successor Sajid Javid pledged that he would fight for more police funding in a government-wide spending review.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that “after falling in recent decades, the overall level of crime is now stabilising”.

Sajid Javid pledged to fight for more police funding three years after Theresa May told officers to stop ‘crying wolf’ over the impact of cuts (PA)

In the year to March, the number of homicides recorded by police rose by 12 per cent, knife crime offences were up by 16 per cent and robbery rocketed by 30 per cent. 

A total of more than 40,000 knife offences was the highest number since 2010-11.

The ONS said only a “small proportion” of incidents, which include threatening someone as well as stabbings, resulted in people being taken to hospital, with the NHS recording 4,656 admissions in England.

Police have warned that “feral” knife attacks are becoming more brutal, seeing victims stabbed and slashed multiple times.

A wave of killings has sparked a government crackdown on deadly weapons including “zombie” knives, which will become illegal to possess.

Louise Haigh, the shadow policing minister, told The Independent the rise in violence would come as “no surprise to communities who have had their safety disregarded by this government”.

She added: “It is not a coincidence that crime is rising at a time when neighbourhood policing has been decimated. At the same time victims are being seriously let down as tens of thousands of crimes are not resulting in a charge.”

Sarah Jones MP, chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Knife Crime, said the situation had become a ”public health emergency”. 

“We need concrete action,” she added. “The roots of this problem spread far and wide. It’s no coincidence that annual school exclusion figures released today also show a huge rise. Increasing numbers of children are being marginalised and unsupported, and we need drastic action to turn this around.”

Figures show that murders have increased for the fourth consecutive year following a long-term decline, and are mainly concentrated in London and other cities.

Robberies rose by almost a third, and statisticians said that although improvements in police record-keeping contributed to the rise it “may reflect a real change”.

Cyclist pulls out ‘zombie knife’ and attempts to smash a car window

The ONS said robberies were “disproportionately concentrated in London and other metropolitan areas”, amid alarm over violent muggings by attackers on mopeds who frequently target phones.

Firearms offences increased by 2 per cent overall, and vehicle-related theft was up by 17 per cent according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales.

The survey, which records people’s experiences rather than what is reported to police, found that 80 per cent of the people did not experience any crime in the past year.

Meghan Elkin, head of crime statistics at the ONS, said the only type of crime that significantly fell was computer misuse.

The 31 per cent drop has been put down to a fall in computer viruses causes by increased awareness among the general public, who are protecting their devices better.

“Most crime types are staying the same, but we’ve seen increases in some types of theft, like vehicles and burglary, and less common higher-harm offences including homicide, gun and knife crime,” Ms Elkin told The Independent.

“Some of the increase in knife crime might be down to improvements in recording, but we do think there’s a genuine increase there because we’ve seen a rise in admissions to NHS hospitals.”

In the same time period, the number of police officers in England and Wales fell to 122,404 – the lowest number since comparable records began in 1996.

Home Office statistics showed there was an overall increase in the total police workforce, which was driven by staff rather than police officers.

There were decreases in the number of police officers, Police Community Support Officers and special constables compared with the previous year, as well as officers in “frontline roles”.

The teenagers murdered in London in 2018

Around 2 per cent of police officers – around 2,300 – are on long-term sick leave, and the Police Federation has demanded better support and mental health services to help them cope with traumatic incidents and a spate of terror attacks.

“These new figures are proof, as if we even needed it, that policing in the UK is on the critical list,” said the association’s vice chair, Ché Donald.

“We have a government who recently launched their Serious Violence Strategy – yet failed to make one single mention of the falling numbers of officers, which they were rightly criticised for. You would think that every time we have the same conversations about rising crime, particularly violent crime, it would be a wake-up call for the government. But instead it just feels like we are sleepwalking into a nightmare.”

Separate Home Office data showed that police forces closed 48 per cent of investigations without identifying a suspect in the year to March.

The figure rose to three-quarters for theft, compared with around 15 per cent for domestic abuse, 7 per cent for rape and 2 per cent for drugs offences. 

The proportion of crimes that resulted in a charge or summons fell from 11 per cent to 9 per cent in the year, as part of a “downward trend” since the government introduced new counting rules in 2015.

Home Office analysis said the drop may be partly caused by a rising number of “complex” crimes like sexual abuse and the volume of digital evidence now seized on phones and other devices.

Alex Mayes, the policy and public affairs adviser at Victim Support, said: “A large part of the recovery process for victims is obtaining justice, and failure to do so can make it difficult for them to move on.  

“Reporting rates are already quite low – especially for cases of domestic abuse and sexual offences – and for many this is because they believe that the police won’t be able to do much about it. 

“This news has the potential to reinforce these perceptions, undermine public confidence and further deter reporting. This is particularly concerning, as for some not reporting the crime can make it harder for them to seek the help they need and deserve.” 

The Association of Police and Crime Commissioners said leaders were working to tackle the underlying causes of crime and keep communities safe.

On the number of unsolved crimes, the association’s performance lead Matthew Scott said: “It is important to acknowledge that police help victims in a number of ways, including through safeguarding, and much of the vital support given to victims is delivered through local charities.”

CDC releases shocking statistics about liver cancer

CDC releases shocking statistics about liver cancer statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus
CDC releases shocking statistics about liver cancer statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus

(WDTN) — A new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reveals shocking numbers about deaths from liver cancer.

According to the CDC, liver cancer deaths have risen by 43 percent since 2000.

Mark Allan sits down with Dr. James Oullette, a Surgical Oncologist with Premier Health, to discuss just how serious those numbers are and what you can do to reduce your risk of liver cancer.

statistics; +356 new citations

statistics; +356 new citations Report, nevin_manimala, linkedin, google_plus
statistics; +356 new citations Report, nevin_manimala, linkedin, google_plus

Basu B, Krebs MG, Sundar R, Wilson RH, Spicer J, Jones R, Brada M, Talbot DC, Steele N, Ingles Garces AH, Brugger W, Harrington EA, Evans J, Hall E, Tovey H, de Oliveira FM, Carreira S, Swales K, Ruddle R, Raynaud FI, Purchase B, Dawes JC, Parmar M, Turner AJ, Tunariu N, Banerjee S, de Bono JS, Banerji U.

Ann Oncol. 2018 Jul 17. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdy245. [Epub ahead of print]

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Scott’s story more than statistics

Scott's story more than statistics statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus
Scott's story more than statistics statistics, nevin_manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google_plus

NILES — As Adam Scott talks, you have to remind yourself he’s from New York State.

The hint of a twang in his inflection confuses the average person. The left-handed pitcher seemingly has to be from south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

But he grew up 30 minutes southeast of Rochester, N.Y., going to Canandaigua (N.Y.) Academy. Wikipedia says the New York town of more than 10,000 is referred to as “The Chosen One.”

How did this year’s fourth-round pick of the Cleveland Indians end up about 13 hours south, playing for the Wofford (S.C.) Terriers? Wofford Coach Todd Interdonato saw Scott play in a tournament in Florida, and invited the Canandaigua native to campus. No reason to go elsewhere. Scott, a 6-foot-4, 225-pound left-handed pitcher was coming to Wofford, proving that a northerner could succeed in the south.

That’s where he met his girlfriend and friends, which accounts for his current dialect.

“My roommates are hillbillies,” Scott laughed. “We jokingly say that. They’ve got some real southern accents. Just being around it, I’m sure I picked it up.”

It wasn’t the only thing he learned along the way. Life has taught Scott some hard lessons.

He pointed to the side of his lower left leg, and is constantly reminded of the screw put in his left elbow. He suffered injuries two seasons apart at Canandaigua Academy, about 30 minutes southeast of Rochester, N.Y.

He walked to the field on a one-lane road. Scott thought he could get past his friend’s car, which was on the surface. One gave. It was his leg.

“The bone came out right there,” said Scott, who was scheduled to pitch for the Mahoning Valley Scrappers on Monday against the Hudson Valley Renegades. That game was canceled due to poor field conditions and an impending weather front.

He’s had minimal work this season with seven strikeouts, one walk and no ERA in four innings of work with Mahoning Valley in two games. He had 368 innings in four years with the Terriers, one of the best to pitch at Wofford.

Scott, who played power forward in basketball at Canandaigua Academy, thought of the horrific injury to Louisville’s Kevin Ware in the 2013 NCAA Elite Eight game against Duke — seeing his knee buckle as he jumped to defend a 3-pointer and landed awkwardly, suffering an open fracture of the tibia. Ware’s was in the front. Scott’s was off to the side.

“I had flashbacks,” said Scott, who admits he’s a fan of college basketball and slightly favors the University of North Carolina because of Ty Lawson — that’s if he had to pick a team.

Scott’s senior year, his left elbow popped. Bone fracture, which explains the screw in his arm.

“Don’t want them to happen again, but don’t wish it never happened,” Scott said. “It really made me appreciate and understand how quick things can change like that and appreciate every moment I’ve got.”

Even the choice not to purse a basketball career. It crossed his mind.

“Looking back on it now, it would’ve been a pretty bad choice,” Scott said.

His father, Robert, and sisters Elizabeth and Margaret, all graduated from the University of Buffalo.

For a time, Adam thought he’d be there, giving him one more year with Elizabeth, who played volleyball with the Bulls. He was one of the Buffalo volleyball program’s biggest fans, but the proverbial foam finger could’ve been held in favor of Elizabeth and Margaret — the reason he’s playing professional baseball.

Margaret passed an opportunity to be a college softball pitcher, instead pursing mechanical and aerospace engineering. She lives in Raleigh, N.C., working in the oil industry.

Her work ethic inspired Adam to be a better baseball player.

Elizabeth led her volleyball team. Teammates followed, but so did Adam — learning how to be a leader. She’s a social worker in Winston-Salem, N.C.

“They’ve got life figured out way better than I ever will,” said Adam, who majored in finance and accounting.

He’s been a good fit at Mahoning Valley. Pitching coach Jason Blanton, who has known Scott only for the past couple of weeks, has seen it firsthand.

“Just expect him to do what he’s doing,” Blanton said. “He’s been very good in the clubhouse. He fits in with his teammates. He’s got a good work ethic.”

Blanton didn’t scout the Major League Baseball draft’s 133rd overall pick the Indians selected, but knew he was a strike thrower.

Scott’s background overshadowed numbers, which weren’t overwhelming as far as win-loss percentage as a starter (26-21) at Wofford.

“We were expecting high things out of him out of what we read,” Blanton said.

Scott is seen as a starter, with his allotment of pitches. He throws a fastball, changeup, curveball and slider. He wants to sharpen his slider and try to keep right-handed batters off balance with the changeup.

It’s about perfecting his craft, making his own path in the Indians farm system.

“I work off of my fastball 100 percent, move it in and out to both lefties and righties — keep them off balance,” Scott said. “I try to tunnel every pitch off of those spots.

“I defintely feel very confident in my ability to let that fastball do a lot of the work, let those other pitches look that much better.”

Blanton likes the life to Scott’s fastball and his command to both sides of the plate, the spinning breaking ball, there’s no hesistation.

“Right now, I would have him keep doing what he’s doing,” Blanton said.

Overcome, learned, progressed, that’s Scott, who unlike the sport of baseball, isn’t based off the numbers.

“Numbers only tell a part of the story,” Scott said. “I don’t think any of that stuff can tell who I am and me at my core. I’m very confident in who I am. In numbers, you can’t really see that.”

Ironic since this is baseball, a sport dominated by statistics.