Nevin Manimala

Statistics Canada’s proposal to collect a range of detailed financial data from 500,000 Canadians has certainly touched a nerve.

Many commentators argue this invades privacy and is overreach, while only a few brave pundits defend the plan. The tide of public opinion has turned and our system of official statistics is under serious threat.

Three questions need answering.

First, why does Statistics Canada need financial transactions data?

Second, how does direct access to financial records make official statistics more reliable and efficient?

Third, are the financial data that Statistics Canada wishes to access all that different from the information already shared by the financial industry?

The origins of the census

To answer the first question, let’s go back to before Confederation. Legislation passed in 1847 specified the need for population counts and the collection of criminal statistics. It directed the government (at that time the Province of Canada) to complete a census of population and to:

“…institute inquiries and collect useful facts and statistics relating to the Agricultural, Mechanical and Manufacturing interests of the Province…to promote improvements in the Province and to encourage immigration from other Countries.”

The present-day Statistics Act closely reflects the sentiments of this initial legislation.

Official statistics, comprising the census and other “useful facts and statistics,” serve both public and private purposes.

Public purposes include diverse activities like allocating government grants for arts and sports, calibration tax revenue models, planning major infrastructure and calculating key economic indicators such as the unemployment rate and consumer price index.

Private uses include special extracts from the census to target postal codes to locate boomers or millennials in direct mail campaigns. Population projections are basic to business planning. Elsewhere, I have argued that reliable and valid official statistics are essential to combating fake news in our post-truth society.

In other words, official statistics are a public good serving Canadian society.

‘Methodological innovations’

Second, to understand why it’s important to have direct access to financial data, we need some context on the many methodological innovations that have maintained our official statistics as population grew and Canada expanded.

One notable innovation directly related to the current controversy was the Corporation and Labour Unions Returns Act of 1964 (CALURA) that replaced business surveys with direct access to corporate tax returns.

In addition to eliminating response burden, such direct access to tax data improved response rates, accuracy and timeliness of reporting.

Scandinavians share lots of data, including financial information, and it’s replacing census surveys. Here’s the Danish Danske Bank, the largest in northern Europe. Shutterstock

Direct access to administrative data is the future for official statistics, including the census, as the Scandinavian countries have demonstrated. In those countries, administrative data such as tax files, health records and school enrolments are replacing census surveys — they are faster and more accurate.

Finally, what’s so special about accessing financial transactions?

Let’s be clear, arms dealers and drug cartels do not use credit unions. What Statistics Canada wants is the humdrum of everyday existence. Payments for groceries, rent, utilities and online shopping and other routine financial transactions data will supplement and perhaps eventually replace the Survey of Household Spending (SHS), an expenditure diary maintained by a small random sample of Canadians.

Market researchers have long experienced falling response rates in their private surveys, but now official surveys are encountering it, and policy-makers are worried.

The household survey underpins the consumer price index, a core economic indicator needed to set interest rates and to index many types of public and private payments. Household expenditure data also forms a basis for the proposed market basket measure of poverty. Quite simply, these are data we need to get right to support public policy.

Read more: The promise and problems of including ‘big data’ in official government statistics

Banks routinely share customer data. Those zippy ads showing millennials using an app to check their credit scores fail to mention that these scores rely on financial institutions sharing customer information with Equifax and other clearing houses.

Statistics Canada also collects our income data directly from Canada Revenue Agency for the census and without our prior consent.

Why all the turmoil?

So why the turmoil over this latest proposal? Three reasons appear plausible.

First, in the face of regular data lapses like the Equifax breach of 2017 and the recent massive cyber-attack on Facebook, Canadians are justifiably skeptical about any promise their data are secure within any system.

Second, management at Statistics Canada, despite claims of extensive consultations with the financial industry and the privacy commissioner, seems to have forgotten what sales people call the “value proposition.”

Why does Statistics Canada need such access? Who will benefit? This has not been made clear even in the request StatsCan sent to banks.

Finally, the initiative appears to be driven by government, creating for some ominous Big Brother overtones.

So where do we go from here?

First, Statistics Canada needs to press “pause” and develop a more fulsome rationale for accessing this information. It is politically tone-deaf to point to recent changes to the Statistics Act that allows Statistics Canada to compel such access.

With the banks now threatening legal action, continued doubling down threatens public trust in our official statistics. Most Canadians do not understand how Statistics Canada supports public policy or private business.

Benefits need to be explained

Specifically, it needs to show why accessing financial transactions data will improve the reliability and timeliness of its information and what benefits will result from such access. It also needs to go beyond assertion and demonstrate the highest level of data security.

Statistics Canada reports to Navdeep Bains, a government minister. Instead, it should report to Parliament. THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Patrick Doyle

This issue is now partisan, partly because Statistics Canada is an agency of government. The chief statistician reports to the Minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development.

If the chief statistician were to report to Parliament in the same way as the auditor general, then such requests could have broader political support.

Both policy lobbyists and industry benefit from a robust system of official statistics, and it’s Parliament that offers a superior oversight capacity from a less partisan vantage.

Official statistics are a public good, benefiting all sectors of society. Their most important role is grounding intelligent public policy with facts.

Statistics Canada needs to be able maintain the pace of innovation in collecting and publishing data by accessing timely information on Canadian society. However, this must rest on clear and effective policies to manage privacy and secure data. Having StatCan report to Parliament and not a government minister may help.

Hopefully, Statistics Canada can salvage this proposal quickly without further damage being done to our system of official statistics.

© 2018 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

No. 17 Kentucky defeated Middle Tennessee State 34-23 in a non-conference college football game at Kroger Field in Lexington on Saturday. The Wildcats (8-3, 5-3 SEC) return to action on Saturday, Nov. 24 vs. Louisville (2-9, 0-8 ACC) at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville. Kickoff time is 7 p.m.

Click here to view a complete statistics report from Saturday’s game vs. Middle Tennessee State.

Click here to view the SEC standings.

Click here to view Kentucky’s schedule.

The inspector general of the U.S. Department of Interior concluded in a report Friday that administrators at Haskell Indian Nations University underreported crime statistics for a two-year period and failed to follow internal policy when handling misconduct complaints.

The agency’s report said employees of the university in Lawrence told investigators they felt “bullied and intimidated” by Haskell President Venida Chenault. The document concluded the president influenced, through her presence at a meeting, a family member’s appointment to a high-level campus job.

Inspectors with the Interior Department said allegations that surfaced during the inquiry regarding a Haskell instructor’s sexual assault of a student were referred to the Lawrence Police Department.

Chenault, who has been president of the four-year federally operated university since January 2014, couldn’t be reached at her office for comment.

The university enrolls about 1,000 students representing about 140 tribal nations and Alaska native communities.

The report said Haskell’s administrative staff “inaccurately reported crime statistics in 2014 and 2015.” The university’s crime reports for 2016 and 2017 weren’t available to the federal investigators.

The inspector general’s office said Haskell’s annual reports on crime listed a total of three offenses in 2014 and five in 2015. However, the report said, the actual number of offenses that should have been reported was 19 for 2014 and 32 for 2015, based on law enforcement documents.

“A Haskell employee said she adjusted statistics because she feared the Haskell president,” the report said. “The employee said she tried to explain the requirements to the president, but it just made her angry. The employee said, ‘I know it’s wrong, but I’m scared to death, you know. I mean, I need this job.’ “

Chenault told federal investigators Haskell’s annual crime reports were inaccurate but she denied intentionally misrepresenting the statistics.

The Haskell president was the subject of complaints from employees and students that she ran afoul of anti-nepotism rules by allowing her son, Joshua Arce, to lead the university’s information technology department while also working as acting dean of students and, for brief periods, as acting president of the university. In 2016, Arce’s role was limited to the IT job.

Interior Department investigators said, without naming Chenault, that university officials failed to “consistently follow Haskell’s guidelines for handling complaints.”

An unnamed Haskell employee told investigators that university policy allowed victims and subjects of complaints to select a trained advocate, but no trained advocates existed at the university and untrained advocates were assigned by Haskell staff.

A Haskell employee, not identified in the inspector general’s report, said campus policy dictated that students be issued a timely warning after an alleged sexual assault.

In November 2014, the report said, the Haskell president was informed of the on-campus assault of a student. The employee told inspectors Chenault replied, “I don’t want to do that.” Several notices of the incident were subsequently placed in a campus dormitory.

The federal report revealed Chenault “admitted she treated an allegation of sexual assault differently because the victim was male” and confirmed Haskell mishandled allegations that an instructor raped a student and, in the process, “likely re-victimized the student.”

The Interior Department’s investigators reported the president was asked whether allegations of intimidation of staff reflected reality.

“Well, I think perception is reality, right?” Chenault said. “I’m sorry that people have those perceptions.”

The president told the inspector general’s office some senior staff at Haskell resisted change because they were near retirement or didn’t want to be held to higher standards.

The report said investigators didn’t find evidence Chenault showed favoritism towards a subordinate employee working on a doctorate degree, nor did investigators substantiate allegations the president improperly authorized purchases of computers.

Officials in the inspector general’s office said the report would be forwarded to directors of the Bureau of Indian Education and the Bureau of Indian Affairs.

Bears coach Matt Nagy said something recently that surely made former coach Lovie Smith smile down in Champaign.

With the Bears leading the NFL with a plus-13 turnover differential, Nagy discussed the importance of defensive takeaways.

“That’s one of the stats that matter as you go through this,” Nagy said. “[It’s] making sure that you get the football on defense, and you don’t give it up on offense, and when you pair those together you’re always going to be in every game, usually, unless something crazy happens.”

But it’s only one stat that illustrates why the Bears are 6-3 and playing the Vikings for first place in the NFC North at Soldier Field on Sunday night. Here’s a look at the numbers behind the Bears’ season:

Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky (10) celebrates after a touchdown against the Lions on Sunday. | AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Strength of schedule

When it comes to strength of schedule, the Bears have played the easiest schedule of any team so far this season.

Five of the Bears’ six victories have come against five of the NFL’s worst teams: Cardinals (2-7), Buccaneers (3-6), Jets (3-7), Bills (3-7) and Lions (3-6). They still have the lowly Giants (2-7) and 49ers (2-8) on their schedule.

The Bears’ path to 6-3 is partly why some pundits aren’t buying their success. It’s also why Sunday’s game against the Vikings on prime time is viewed as a statement game.

But strength of schedule can be misleading to an extent. According to Pro Football Reference, the Eagles had easiest schedule in the NFC season en route to a 13-3 record — and that didn’t preclude them from winning the Super Bowl.

The Rams’ rise last season also was aided by their schedule. They were tied with the Seahawks for the second easiest slate in the NFC, trailing only the Eagles.

The Patriots played the weakest schedule of any team during the 2016 season, and then they won the Super Bowl later in February 2017, according to Pro Football Reference.

A season before that, the Panthers had the easiest schedule of any team, went 15-1 and reached the Super Bowl, too.

The point here is that you who you play.

Part of the reason why good teams tend to have a low strength of schedule is because those good teams are defeating teams, consequently making the records of their opponents worse.

Point differential

One argument against the use of strength of schedule is point differential. The Bears didn’t merely just defeat bad teams this season; they obliterated them.

The Bears are currently fourth in point differential with a plus-94, trailing the Chiefs (113), Rams (104) and Saints (98).

In general, point differential can be a considered a strong indicator of the best teams in the NFL. The Eagles and Patriots were tied with a league-best plus-162 last season, and of course, they played in the Super Bowl.

That’s a trend, too.

Nine of the last 10 teams that played in the last five Super Bowls were either first or second in point differential.

The 2015 Broncos are the only outlier. They won Super Bowl 50 against the Panthers but were the 10th-best team in terms of point differential during the regular season.

Trubisky’s ratings

The Bears are winning because quarterback Mitch Trubisky is developing.

There are currently 14 quarterbacks who have traditional passer ratings over 100 this season. Trubisky is 11th at 101.6. He’s ahead of many notable quarterbacks, including Cam Newton (101.2), Ben Roethlisberger (100.9), Deshaun Watson (100.8), Andrew Luck (98.4) and even Tom Brady (94.7).

Traditional passer rating, though, has long been considered a flawed statistic. It’s why ESPN created total QBR and Pro Football Focus established its own grading system.

This is where the Great Trubisky Debate comes in, too.

According to ESPN’s total QBR — which “incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties” — Trubisky is currently the NFL’s fourth-best quarterback with a 75.1 mark. Trubisky only trails Drew Brees (86.2), Patrick Mahomes (83.6) and Philip Rivers (75.4) in that system.

PFF, which grades every single play and throw, doesn’t see the same, though.

In PFF’s most recent rankings, Trubisky is rated as their 28th best passer. He has the highest percentage of negatively-graded throws (23.8 percent) of any starting quarterback. According to PFF, each throw has varying positive and negative degrees that it can be graded. Trubisky’s rushing grade, though, does lead all quarterbacks.

Trubisky’s ratings certainly stand out when compared to Jay Cutler’s Bears run. It’s early but they’re not even in the same conversation. Cutler’s best passer rating was 92.3 in 2015. His best total QBR was 70.9 in 2013.

More measurements

The Bears are the only team in the NFL to rank in the top five in scoring offense (No. 5, 29.9 points scored) and scoring defense (tied-No. 4, 19.4 points allowed).

But advanced statistics also can be used to highlight the Bears’ success.

The Bears have the 10th-best offense and the top-rated defense, according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average measurement.

DVOA places a percentage on teams and can sound complicated. But Football Outsiders’ explanation of it can be boiled down to: “DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down.” It’s then compared to a league-average baseline based on situations.

DVOA also can be applied to individual players. Trubisky is rated ninth among quarterbacks in DVOA, which is currently ahead of Newton, Brady, Carson Wentz and even Aaron Rodgers.

What does DVOA say about success overall?

It’s an indicator of playoff teams.

As a team, the Bears currently rank fifth in total DVOA behind the Chiefs, Rams, Chargers and Steelers. The Super Bowl-winning Eagles were fifth in total DVOA last season.

The Super Bowl-winning Patriots, Broncos and Seahawks finished first, eighth and first in 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively. It’s a trend that continues.

EXTRA POINTS

Floyd back in flow

In the eyes of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, outside linebacker Leonard Floyd is just getting started after making his first sack this season against the Lions last week.

To Fangio, everyone has underrated the impact that Floyd’s broken right hand had on his production this season. It was a significant detriment.

“Hopefully, he’ll continue and start getting some more [sacks] and playing good,” Fangio said. “A lot of what happened with Leonard, too, is those first four weeks with his hand, especially the first three with the cast, we probably played him too much.

“You guys are seeing him not being productive and start asking about a bunch of questions. And then the first game where he had the small cast on, he wasn’t confident enough to throw it in there consistently. He was a little tentative. So I don’t think we’ve seen what he can or can’t do until these last couple of games.”

Floyd was noticeably better against the Lions. He hit quarterback Matthew Stafford three times, including twice on stunts to the inside.

“He’s very athletic, he’s very relentless and he’s slippery,” Fangio said of using Floyd on stunts. “So he can sometimes get through the cracks better than other guys.”

Searching for answers

When it came to game-planning for the Vikings’ defense, one film probably stood out to the Bears: the Eagles’ 38-7 rout of the Vikings in the NFC Championship on Jan. 21.

The Bears’ offense, of course, is similar to the Eagles’ because of their head coaches: Doug Pederson and Matt Nagy.

Backup quarterback Nick Foles completed 26 of 33 passes for 352 yards and three touchdowns as the Eagles scored 38 unanswered points to advance to the Super Bowl.

“We look at everything; we do,” Nagy said when asked about last season’s NFC Championship.

But he didn’t want to make too much out of it.

“These coaches are good coaches,” Nagy said. “They understand that everyone looks at every thing so they adjust and they’ve done that.

“So we look at lots of games, and then we’ve just got to decide what we want to end up doing from the games we look at. Then that’s the chess match.”

TWITTER Q&A (for more questions/answers click here)

Would a pursuit of Le’Veon Bell be worth it in the offseason? — @amorley618

A: I knew this question was coming. Never say never, but the Bears don’t have as much salary-cap space in 2019 as they have been in the past under general manager Ryan Pace. Of course, that can change. All it takes is a few cuts. Bell is special player but he’s looking for a major payday. Right now, I don’t think the Bears will be the team to give it to him. Other positions – pass rusher, safety and offensive line – should be priorities in the offseason. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Bell. Fair or not, his character will be questioned by teams after he decided to not play this season. If you read the reports from Pittsburgh, his choice to not sign his franchise tag certainly seemed to infuriate his old Steelers teammates. It sounds as if promises in the locker room were broken. The Steelers also are quite happy with James Conner, a third-round pick in 2017 who is further proof that good running backs can be found later in the draft. There also is another dynamic to consider with the Bears. Bell has the same agent, Adisa Bakari, as Jordan Howard. Bakari also represented Matt Forte, who left the Bears after the 2015 season.

Seems like the team has been much healthier this season than in the past years. Have they done something differently than in years past? — @pelonedgar1

A: It starts with the Bears’ staff changes. Andre Tucker replaced Nate Breske as the Bears’ head trainer, while Jason Loscalzo took over for Jason George as their strength and conditioning coach. Coach Matt Nagy’s cautious approach has helped, too. It includes his “infamous” decision to sit his starters in the preseason. But the Bears have battled injuries since training camp. They’re just better built to handle them on the field. When inside linebacker Danny Trevathan was out in camp, Nick Kwiatkoski filled in. Tight end Adam Shaheen was placed on injured reserve but the Bears still had Trey Bruton. Losing right guard Kyle Long also isn’t the same as it was a few years ago. The Bears are a deeper team. For example, they could afford to sit and rest Khalil Mack, their best overall player, and Allen Robinson, their best receiver, against the Jets and Bills.

EPISODE 192

http://serve.castfire.com/audio/3567403/hoge-and-jahns-episode-192_2018-11-15-171503.64kmono.mp3

November 15 at 3:00 AM

“When they declare victory at 4 percent unemployment, it is not good enough. Because 4 percent unemployment means an 8 or 9 percent unemployment in some cities for black women. It means a 16 percent unemployment rate for black men. It means young veterans coming out of Iraq and Afghanistan, a 20 percent unemployment rate. So our work really isn’t done.”

— Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), remarks at the National Action Network Conference, Nov. 14, 2018

For 2020 presidential hopefuls, the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 50 years is a challenge. So prospective candidates have acknowledged it but argued that it is still not good enough.

Readers may recall that in October, we noted that Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) was traveling around Iowa with a line in stump speech that suggested the unemployment rate was so low because people were working two or three jobs. Her staff said she was not asserting a fact, simply raising something she had heard anecdotally. But the day the fact check ran, the line was suddenly gone from her speech.

Now, another prospective 2020 candidate is taking a different tack. Speaking before the National Action Network, the civil rights organization founded by the Rev. Al Sharpton, Gillibrand decided to focus on the fact that, for some people – African American men, women and young veterans, specifically – the unemployment rates are still high.

But her numbers seemed off. Let’s take a look.

The Facts

The overall unemployment rate was 3.7 percent in October, the lowest since December 1969. Here are the claims Gillibrand made:

• 8 or 9 percent unemployment in some cities for black women
• 16 percent unemployment rate for black men
• 20 percent unemployment rate for Iraq and Afghanistan veterans

The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that in October, the unemployment rate was 6.2 percent for African American men and 4.9 percent for African American women.

Gillibrand spokesman Alex Phillips said the senator accidentally dropped a word – “young” – from her prepared remarks and meant to say “young black men” and “young black women.”

Using detailed, but not seasonally adjusted, BLS data for October, one can calculate that the unemployment rate for African American men and women ages 18 to 24 was 16.4 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively. Those are, indeed, the numbers used by Gillibrand. She just failed to use the word “young.” The BLS breaks out the numbers as 18 to 19 years old and 20 to 24 years old, but the raw numbers are presented, so a calculation combining those two categories is possible.

(During the 2016 campaign, then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump used to falsely claim the unemployment rate for black youths was 58 percent. His staff came up with that statistic by including not only people seeking work, but everyone who was not in the labor force at the time, such as students. He also included 16- and 17-year-olds, who are mostly students. That statistic was wildly off base and earned Four Pinocchios.)

Unemployment figures for African Americans are even higher than the national average in some cities, such as in Buffalo and Erie, N.Y.

As for “young veterans,” BLS data that is not seasonally adjusted shows that for “Gulf War-era II veterans” ages 18 to 24, the unemployment rate in October was 12.6 percent. (Seasonally adjusted data is only available for all Gulf War II veterans, showing a rate of 2.7 percent.)

Here again, Gillibrand got it wrong. Phillips said Gillibrand used 20 percent because “she misspoke the stat off the cuff,” but “her point remains unchanged” that the numbers are unusually high for young veterans. She noted that as recently as March, it was 16.4 percent for veterans 18 to 24 years old.

The Pinocchio Test

Regular readers know that we generally do not award Pinocchios when a politician admits error. We certainly can understand a slip of the tongue, but it is never a clever idea to try to ad-lib a statistic.

Somehow, Gillibrand managed to mangle three statistics in three consecutive sentences before a large audience. If you are trying to make the case that you can provide better economic stewardship, you need to get the numbers right first.

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2018-11-15 12:41:49 UTC

Washington Post Rating:

“When they declare victory at 4 percent unemployment, it is not good enough. Because 4 percent unemployment means an 8 or 9 percent unemployment in some cities for black women. It means a 16 percent unemployment rate for black men. It means young veterans coming out of Iraq and Afghanistan, a 20 percent unemployment rate.”

Kirsten Gillibrand

Senator (D-N.Y.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/gillibrand-botches-unemployment-numbers-at-post-election-event/2018/11/14/581b745c-e857-11e8-8449-1ff263609a31_video.html

in a speech at the National Action Network Conference,

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

2018-11-14