Nevin Manimala

By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman

With the 2019 Triple Crown in our rearview mirrors, I thought we’d kick off the second half of the racing season with a different type of post than usual.

Summer is just around the corner, and Saratoga is less than a month away, so the focus of racing fans will soon turn to juvenile racing as well-bred youngsters with high-profile connections hit the track and take aim at the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 2020 Triple Crown.

Therefore, now seems like as good a time as any to address a very old question—are foals produced by graded stakes-winning mares more or less likely to win stakes races than foals produced by less accomplished mares?

Old-time breeders used to believe high-class, heavily-raced mares were less likely to produce stakes-winning foals than mares who accomplished little or nothing on the track. And while we see no shortage of stakes winners produced by unraced or unaccomplished mares, isn’t that to be expected since they greatly outnumber graded stakes-winning mares?

The May 18, 2019 edition of BloodHorse magazine included a BloodHorse MarketWatch section that might be of interest to handicappers. An article by Nicole Stafford included several charts highlighting the produce records of “all mares that produced North American foals from 2000-07,” sorting the broodmares into categories based on their racing accomplishments and detailing the percentage of their foals that achieved stakes-caliber racing class.

The results are eye-opening. The main takeaway? Graded stakes-winning mares produce significantly higher percentages of stakes winners (8.2%), graded stakes winners (4.1%), and Grade 1 winners (1.4%) than all other categories of mares, including stakes-winning mares, which produce 6.2% stakes winners, 2.2% graded stakes winners, and 0.6% Grade 1 stakes winners.

Further down the list, unraced mares produce 3.6% stakes winners, 1.0% graded stakes winners, and 0.3% Grade 1 winners. Mares who won at least one race (but never placed at the stakes level) fare slightly worse, producing 3.2% stakes winners, 0.8% graded stakes winners, and 0.2% Grade 1 winners.

To put it another way, graded stakes-winning mares are approximately 5-7 times more likely to produce a Grade 1 winner than mares who never won or placed at the stakes level. Even stakes-winning mares are 2-3 times more likely to produce Grade 1 winners than those less accomplished mares.

Furthermore, if a graded stakes-winning mare is a half or full sibling to another graded stakes winner or a mare that produced a graded stakes winner, the stats are even more impressive. Mares that fit this category produce approximately 9.5% stakes winners, 5.2% graded stakes winners, and 1.7% Grade 1 winners.

You can argue the reasons behind these stats all day long. Superior genetics surely plays a factor, along with the fact that graded stakes-winning mares are much more likely to be bred to a top stallion than unaccomplished mares.

But if you see a two-year-old out of your favorite graded stakes-winning mare hit the track this summer, you can rest assured this well-bred youngster has a significantly better chance than most runners to become a stakes winner.

One Play for Stephen Foster Day

The Stephen Foster Handicap (G2) might be the highlight of the stakes-packed June 15 card at Churchill Downs, but the horse I’m most excited to play is running in the Regret Stakes (G3), a 1 1/8-mile turf test for three-year-old fillies.

#4 Varenka held her own against high-class company as a maiden last year, finishing second behind Newspaperofrecord in the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2) and fifth behind that same rival in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), where she was beaten just 1 ½ lengths for second place.

Trained by Graham Motion, Varenka took the winter off, but returned to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on May 11 at Belmont Park with a terrific rally from off the pace. The early fractions were pedestrian (:25.04, :50.47, and 1:15.28), yet Varenka managed to pass six horses in the final five-sixteenths of a mile, blazing the distance in :27.99 per Trakus to win going away by two lengths.

This was a remarkable performance considering that the race was otherwise dominated by speed horses and was assigned a speed-favoring Closer Favorability Ratio (CFR) of 9 (on a 1-to-100 scale) by RacingFlow.com. An exceptional effort is required for late runners to win races like these, so I give Varenka a lot of credit for overcoming this unfavorable scenario.

As a daughter of Ghostzapper out of a Dynaformer mare, Varenka should relish the opportunity to stretch out to 1 1/8 miles in the Regret Stakes. I’m expecting her to unleash another powerful finish and win with ease on Saturday.

Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the weekend stakes races?

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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY... AT 443 PM MDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19
MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STORM MAY REACH
BILLINGS BY 5:30 PM MDT. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HALFBREED LAKE WILDLIFE, ACTON, MOLT AND COMANCHE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM, AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. && 

While small farms can play an important role in supporting rural economies, many owners struggle to earn a decent living which can lead to a difficult choice – sell up or try to get more land to become commercially viable. This situation is helping drive up the average size of an EU farm.

According to Dr Teresa Pinto Correia, an expert in rural landscape management at Évora University in Portugal, if the true value of small farms was better understood then they could access more governmental and financial support.

‘Small farms are producing much more than what is in the statistics,’ she said. ‘In some cases the official statistics show (what is) close to the reality, but there are very clear cases showing that the production estimates of small farms are underestimated.’

These farms are an important way to contribute to the food system, she adds, because they support rural food security as well as shorter transport distances and more seasonable production which can have less negative environmental impacts.

Dr Correia is leading the SALSA project which found the production gap after analysing 800 small farms across 25 regions in the EU and 100 small farms across five regions in Africa. Dr Correia says the gap possibly comes from official statistics not accounting for food that is used on the farm to feed family, friends or animals. Food grown on farms often meet between 25% and 40% of that farm’s own requirements.

The farms in the study were mostly defined as those with less than five hectare operations and ranged from potato farmers in Poland to olive farmers in Greece and some growing a variety of crops in France, Portugal and Norway.

The team used satellite images to analyse the land and crop patterns of the small farms, and then interviewed farmers to get an overall estimate of the production capacity for a selected number of crops. They cross-checked figures with agricultural experts and finally compared numbers from each farm against official statistics of production from that region.

Paper trail

The production gap unearthed by SALSA could mean these small farms are being undervalued. Dr Correia says their unreported food does not create a paper trail and that means they are producing a lot more food than ends up in certain statistics.

For example, the EU categorises the size of farms on their economic value. They say that small and very small farms make up almost 70% of total farms, but account for only 5% of the total crops and livestock sold from them. The underestimation found by SALSA means the small farms they examined would be unfairly represented in these types of statistics and that could cause them to be undervalued by markets, banks and governments.

In general economic terms, the more produce a farm provides the more value it has to the market, which often means bigger operations can end up getting preferential treatment. Very large farms in the EU already produce 71% of standard agricultural output, but account for just 6.3% of total farms.

‘Small farms’ potential to place more products in the market or increase production is not considered by official (government) regimes which look more at much larger farms,’ said Dr Correia. ‘If there was more support for small farms they could have a much bigger role (in food production).’

Support

Later this year, SALSA will present their findings to the European Commission which is currently planning the direction of agricultural policies from 2020 onwards. Dr Correia hopes the project will help convince decision-makers to see small farms as more of a way to improve food security and the economic resilience of rural communities.

According to Alan Matthews, Professor Emeritus of European agricultural policy at Trinity College Dublin in Ireland, small farms can be productive and profitable when they specialise in quality produce. He is referring to enterprises such as vineyards, orchards or farms that add value to their produce – for example turning milk into ice cream, or fruits into jams.

While he acknowledges the important role small farms play in supporting rural households and their communities, he says the strong trend of people leaving agriculture for a better quality of life elsewhere seems to be an inevitable trend. 

‘In every country in the world over a long period of time, half a century or more, we observe people moving out of agriculture,’ he said.

For that reason, support should help those who want to set up or remain on small farms in the most productive and sustainable way, he says.

‘(Support) should go to small farms not because they are small but where they are better at managing the land (than bigger enterprises),’ said Prof. Matthews.

And small farms are not necessarily more environmentally friendly, particularly where there is a high concentration of livestock or if they run intensive horticulture or vineyard enterprises. And with one third of EU farmers over 65 years of age, the adoption of more modern sustainable practices and technology can be a challenge, especially if operating a less productive small farm, according to Prof. Matthews.

‘Their level of skills and education is simply not the same as some of these incomers that start small farms and seem to be able to make a great success at it,’ he said.

When it comes to food security, these farms play very different roles in different EU countries, says Prof. Matthews. For example, eastern and southern European small farms could play a bigger role in feeding households, he says, than those in the west which are often less diverse but plugged into the international cash crop markets. Any support would therefore need to account for a range of factors.

SALSA’s findings could lead to better technology and training assistance for small farmers, while policy could help create a more level playing field on the market.

But the big question, Prof. Matthews says, is how to best support every farmer to be economically and environmentally sustainable, regardless of their size.  

The research in this article was funded by the European Union. If you liked this article, please consider sharing it on social media.

Final Area Baseball Statistics

Batting Average
Player, School	Avg
Brock Stoner, Elg.	.623
Kwauve Booker, MH	.489
Evan Ulrich, BV	.474
Tate Tobin, High.	.453
Fletcher Holquist, BV	.444
Ben Atiyeh, BV	.433
Gabe Detwiler, MH	.418
Nate Blevins, Rid.	.413
Mason Kurtz, BV	.410
Clay Matthews, High.	.407
Trevyn Feasel, NU	.403
Connor Lust, Rid.	.390
Nico Wade, Card.	.390
Sam Leach, Rid.	.378
Wyatt Reeder, N’mor	.369
Mack Anglin, High.	.368
Joel Krebehenne, NU	.361
Talan Monticue, RV	.360
Avery Harper, Card.	.359
Hunter Mariotti, N’mor	.357
Jacob Hoffman, MH	.356
Reese Weissenfluh, High.	.355
Robert Curren, Ple.	.351
James Emery, RV	.351
Joey Hamon, MH	.348
Robert Curren, Ple.	.343
Brennon Newell, Ple.	.340
Owen Peters, Ple.	.337
Danny Vaught, Card.	.337
Aiden Davis, MH	.333
Bryce Lowry, Ple.	.333

Home Runs
Player, School	No
Mack Anglin, High.	5
Tate Tobin, High.	5
Kwauve Booker, MH	3
Gabe Detwiler, MH	2
Chris Bood, N’mor	1
Jonathon Curren, Ple.	1
Dakota Downard, N’mor	1
Kase Orahood, NU	1
Brayden Stark, Ple.	1
Brock Stoner, Elg.	1
Ryland Thomas, N’mor	1
Ashden Turrill, NU	1
Zach Wilson, MH	1

RBI
Player, School	No
Mack Anglin, High.	32
James Emery, RV	28
Kwauve Booker, MH	26
Fletcher Holquist, BV	24
Connor Lust, Rid.	24
Tate Tobin, High.	23
Gabe Detwiler, MH	22
Sam Mitchell, MH	22
Jaden Slone, RV	22
Mason Kurtz, BV	21
Nate Blevins, Rid.	20
Kolton Honeter, Card.	20
Sam Leach, Rid.	20
Nick McAvoy, Card.	20
Zane Dine, Ple.	19
Trevyn Feasel, NU	19
Trey Brininger, Card.	18
Reese Weissenfluf, High.	18
Clay Matthews, High.	17
Kase Orahood, NU	17
Brock Stoner, Elg.	17
Evan Ulrich, BV	17
Justin Hix, Elg.	16
Hunter Mariotti, N’mor	16

Runs
Player, School	No
Avery Harper, Card.	32
Brock Stoner, Elg.	30
Tate Tobin, High.	30
Gabe Detwiler, MH	29
Ethan Castle, RV	28
Nico Wade, Card.	27
Trey Brininger, Card.	26
Clayton Lust, Rid.	26
Kwauve Booker, MH	25
Sam Leach, Rid.	23
Nick McAvoy, Card.	22
Robert Curren, Ple.	21
Kolton Honeter, Card.	21
Connor Lust, Rid.	20
Talan Monticue, RV	20
Nate Blevins, Rid.	19
Aiden Davis, MH	19
Trevyn Feasel, NU	19
Joe Greene, Elg.	19
Danny Vaught, Card.	19
Reese Weissenfluh, High.	19
Justin Brown, Elg.	18
Bryce Lowry, Ple.	18
Clay Matthews, High.	18
Mack Anglin, High.	17
Anthony Padovano, NU	17
Adam Beard, Rid.	16
Carsen Newell, NU	16
Kase Orahood, NU	16
Owen Peters, Ple.	16
Ryland Thomas, N’mor	16

Steals
Player, School	No
Brock Stoner, Elg.	25
Justin Brown, Elg.	20
Nate Blevins, Rid.	19
Joe Greene, Elg.	16
Kwauve Booker, MH	15
Trevyn Feasel, NU	15
Trey Brininger, Card.	14
Robert Curren, Ple.	14
Gabe Detwiler, MH	14
Landon Mabe, Elg.	14
Nico Wade, Card.	14
Clayton Lust, Rid.	13
Nick McAvoy, Card.	13
Sam Leach, Rid.	12
Owen Peters, Ple.	12
Carter Andrich, Elg.	11
Aiden Davis, MH	11
Avery Harper, Card.	11
Wyatt Reeder, N’mor	11
Danny Vaught, Card.	11
Riley Conners, MG	10
Tate Tobin, High.	10
Reese Weissenfluh, High.	10

Wins
Player, School	No
Zach Ahern, NU	6
Sam Leach, Rid.	6
Tate Tobin, High.	6
Mack Anglin, High.	5
Ben Atiyeh, BV	5
Joey Hamon, MH	5
Devin McFarland, MH	5
Brennon Newell, Ple.	5
Kase Orahood, NU	5
Avery Harper, Card.	4
Kaden Lester, Rid.	4
Cam Miller, Elg.	4
Adam Beard, Rid.	3
Nate Blevins, Rid.	3
Chris Bood, N’mor	3
Trey Brininger, Card.	3
Devin Dillinger, MH	3
Kolton Honeter, Card.	3
Ben Mayse, RV	3
Micah Orr, NU	3
Nico Wade, Card.	3
Riley Young, NU	3

Strikeouts
Player, School	No
Brennon Newell, Ple.	83
Sam Leach, Rid.	68
Mack Anglin, High.	65
Devin Dillinger, MH	59
Nico Wade, Card.	55
Devin McFarland, MH	46
Kase Orahood, NU	46
Tate Tobin, High.	46
Joey Hamon, MH	45
Brayden Black, N’mor	44
Andy Anthony, BV	43
Avery Harper, Card.	40
Ben Atiyeh, BV	38
Kaden Lester, Rid.	38
Chris Bood, N’mor	29
Joel Butterman, MG	29
Brock Stoner, Elg.	29
James Emery, RV	28
Connor Wrentmore, RV	28
Riley Young, NU	27
Ben Mayse, RV	27
Robert Curren, Ple.	26
Zach Ahern, NU	24
Nate Blevins, Rid.	23
Cam Miller, Elg.	23
Owen Mott, High.	23
Adam Beard, Rid.	22
Riley Conners, MG	20

ERA
Player, School	Avg
Mack Anglin, High.	0.44
Mason Kurtz, BV	1.37
Zach Ahern, NU	1.56
Nate Blevins, Rid.	1.75
Brayden Stark, Ple.	1.78
Zach Mitchell, BV	1.80
Owen Mott, High.	1.83
Kaden Lester, Rid.	1.97
Adam Beard, Rid.	2.10
Jack Weaver, High.	2.10
Andy Anthony, BV	2.14
Tate Tobin, High.	2.17
Brennon Newell, Ple.	2.12
Connor Wrentmore, RV	2.24
Cam Miller, Elg.	2.31
Micah Orr, NU	2.41
Hunter Mariotti, N’mor	2.42
Ben Atiyeh, BV	2.48
Sam Leach, Rid.	2.51
Joey Hamon, MH	2.63
Devin McFarland, MH	2.68
Riley Young, NU	2.86
Ben Mayse, RV	2.90
Kase Orahood, NU	2.92
Chris Bood, N’mor	3.07
Brayden Black, N’mor	3.17
Mostyn Evans, N’mor	3.27
Kolton Honeter, Card.	3.29
Kwauve Booker, MH	3.15
Carter Sager, Elg.	3.39
Bryce Lowry, Ple.	3.50
Nico Wade, Card.	3.59
Joe Greene, Elg.	3.74
Avery Harper, Card.	3.80
Devin Dillinger, MH	3.85
Gabe Detwiler, MH	4.10
Robert Curren, Ple.	4.29
Brock Stoner, Elg.	4.99

Saves
Player, School	No
Owen Mott, High.	3
Riley Young, NU	3
Zach Ahern, NU	2
Kwauve Booker, MH	1
Bryce Lowry, Ple.	1
Cam Miller, Elg.	1

LUZERNE COUNTY – (WBRE/WYOU) Pennsylvania State Police have released stats regarding their two day “Operation Night Hawk” initiative in Luzerne County.
More than 100 state and municipal officers participated in the unique DUI enforcement initiative on Friday and Saturday.

Arrest statistics are as follows:

DUI Arrests: 121

Misdemeanor Arrests: 32

Felony Arrests: 5

Driving Under Suspension Citations: 46

Driving Under Suspension DUI Related: 12

Seatbelt Citations: 16

Child Seat Citations: 4

Speeding Citations: 11

Other Traffic Citations: 330

Underage Drinking Arrests: 3

Misdemeanor / Felony Wanted Individuals Arrested: 15

Motorists Contacted: 1115

During the course of this proactive DUI enforcement effort, a PSP Sergeant observed a burglary in progress and took the actors into custody in Lackawanna County. Also in Lackawanna County, a Trooper apprehended a convicted felon who was reported to have fired shots in a crowded area. The firearm was also recovered. In Luzerne County, Troopers recovered a vehicle that had been reported stolen from Centre County and arrested the driver. And a significant drug seizure was also made during a traffic stop initiated by a PSP Corporal.

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