J Med Virol. 2022 May 6. doi: 10.1002/jmv.27841. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Providing sensible estimates of the mean incubation time for COVID-19 is important yet complex. This study aims to provide sensible estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID-19 by capitalizing on available estimates reported in the literature and exploring different ways to accommodate heterogeneity involved in the reported studies.
METHODS: Online databases between January 1 of 2020 and May 20 of 2021 are first searched to obtain estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID-19 from available studies, and meta-analyses are then conducted to generate synthetic estimates. Heterogeneity of the studies is examined via the use of Cochran’s Q statistic and Higgin’s & Thompson’s I2 statistic, and subgroup analyses are conducted using mixed effects models. The publication bias issue is assessed using the funnel plot and Egger’s test.
RESULTS: Using all those reported mean incubation estimates for COVID-19, the mean incubation time is estimated to be 6.43 days with a 95% confidence interval (CI) (5.90, 6.96), and using all those reported mean incubation estimates together with those transformed median incubation estimates, the estimated mean incubation time is 6.07 days with a 95% CI (5.70,6.45).
CONCLUSIONS: The reported estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID-19 vary considerably due to multiple reasons, including heterogeneity and publication bias. To alleviate these issues, we take different angles to provide a sensible estimate of the mean incubation time of COVID-19. Our analyses show that the mean incubation time of COVID-19 between January 1 of 2020 and May 20 of 2021 ranges from 5.68 days to 8.30 days. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
PMID:35524338 | DOI:10.1002/jmv.27841
