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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A Machine-Learning Approach for Estimating Subgroup- and Individual-Level Treatment Effects: An Illustration Using the 65 Trial

Med Decis Making. 2022 May 24:272989X221100717. doi: 10.1177/0272989X221100717. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

This article examines a causal machine-learning approach, causal forests (CF), for exploring the heterogeneity of treatment effects, without prespecifying a specific functional form.The CF approach is considered in the reanalysis of the 65 Trial and was found to provide similar estimates of subgroup effects to using a fixed parametric model.The CF approach also provides estimates of individual-level treatment effects that suggest that for most patients in the 65 Trial, the intervention is expected to reduce 90-d mortality but with wide levels of statistical uncertainty.The study illustrates how individual-level treatment effect estimates can be analyzed to generate hypotheses for further research about those patients who are likely to benefit most from an intervention.

PMID:35607982 | DOI:10.1177/0272989X221100717

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