J Med Virol. 2022 Oct 21. doi: 10.1002/jmv.28248. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
With increased transmissibility and novel transmission mode, monkeypox poses new threats to global public health in the background of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Empirical estimates of the serial interval, a key epidemiological characteristic of an infectious disease, could provide insight into the virus transmissibility. So far, little is known about the serial interval of the monkeypox. Estimation of serial interval relies on contact tracing data, which is limited for the monkeypox epidemics. In this study, we proposed a statistical method applying on a limited contact tracing data to estimate the serial interval of the monkeypox. Public-available contact tracing data of global monkeypox cases were collected and 21 infector-infectee transmission pair was identified. We estimated a mean serial interval of 5.6 days with right truncation and sampling bias adjusted and calculated the reproduction number of 1.33 for the current global monkeypox outbreaks. Our proposed statistical models provided a preliminary understanding on the transmission potential of the current monkeypox outbreaks. Our analysis highlights the need for continuous surveillance on the monkeypox transmissibility. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
PMID:36271480 | DOI:10.1002/jmv.28248
