Zhonghua Wei Zhong Bing Ji Jiu Yi Xue. 2023 Oct;35(10):1039-1044. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20230519-00380.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the 28-day survival status and influencing factors of adult patients with sepsis, providing reference for early diagnosis of sepsis prognosis and reducing sepsis mortality.
METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. A total of 160 adult patients with sepsis in the department of intensive care unit of the 940th Hospital of Joint Logistic Support Force of PLA from January 2021 to December 2022 were enrolled. The general information, laboratory examination results within 24 hours after admission, clinical treatment measures, and prognosis of patients were collected. Univariate analysis and binary multivariate Logistic regression were performed to screen the risk factors that might affect the short-term prognosis of patients with sepsis. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was plotted to analyze the predictive value of various risk factors on the short-term death risk of sepsis patients.
RESULTS: A total of 160 patients with sepsis were enrolled, of whom 91 survived in 28 days, and 69 died with a mortality of 43.12%. Compared with the survival group, the patients in the death group were older, more severe, had higher blood lactic acid (Lac) level, and had more complications such as hypertension and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). A total of 22 related factors were statistically significant: age, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, length of hospital stay, Lac, interleukin-6 (IL-6), fibrinogen (FIB), international normalized ratio (INR), ratio of prothrombin time (PT) to healthy people, prothrombin activity (PTA), PT, thrombin time (TT), oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), ratio of AST to alanine amninotransferase (ALT), serum creatinine (SCr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), site of infection, history of hypertension, concurrent MODS, implementation of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), and treatment with vasoactive drugs. Combined with the results of the univariate analysis, variables that might affect the short-term prognosis of septic patients were included in the multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The results showed that APACHE II score ≥ 20 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.106, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.003-1.219], Lac ≥ 5 mmol/L (OR = 1.430, 95%CI was 1.041-1.964), combined with hypertension (OR = 13.879, 95%CI was 1.082-178.016), concurrent MODS (OR = 98.139, 95%CI was 18.252-527.672) was an independent risk factor for 28-day death in adult septic patients (all P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the combination of the four indicators including APACHE II score, Lac, combined with hypertension, concurrent MODS, had predictive value for short-term outcomes in patients with sepsis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was higher than that of the 4 indicators alone [AUC (95%CI): 0.952 (0.918-0.986) vs. 0.745 (0.670-0.820), 0.816 (0.748-0.883), 0.608 (0.518-0.699), 0.868 (0.810-0.927)], the sensitivity was 94.2%, and the specificity was 90.1%.
CONCLUSIONS: APACHE II score within 24 hours, Lac, combined with hypertension, and concurrent MODS are independent risk factors for short-term mortality in adult septic patients in ICU. The combination of these indicators can make meaningful early clinical judgments on the short-term prognosis of septic patients, thereby reducing the mortality.
PMID:37873707 | DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20230519-00380
