JAMA Netw Open. 2025 Aug 1;8(8):e2527284. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.27284.
ABSTRACT
IMPORTANCE: Long-term back problems impact an individual’s ability to participate in the workforce productively, potentially resulting in financial stress and furthering inequities. Estimates of future productivity losses could inform advocacy and policy making.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the productivity losses of long-term back problems in working-age Australians (aged 15-64 years) over the next 10 years (2024-2033).
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This modeling study used a dynamic population-level model to simulate the population of working Australians with long-term back problems. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and workforce participation data were obtained from the 2022 National Health Survey. Excess all-cause mortality, absenteeism, and presenteeism data due to long-term back problems were derived from published sources.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcomes were years of life lost, full-time equivalent workers lost, and productivity losses due to long-term back problems. Productivity losses were estimated as productivity-adjusted life-years and associated costs to Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP).
RESULTS: In 2024, 2 950 538 Australians had long-term back problems, which was projected to increase to 3 258 612 million by 2033. Long-term back problems resulted in an estimated loss of 3 394 255 productivity-adjusted life-years over the 10-year period, equating to a loss of more than 638 billion Australian dollars in Australia’s GDP. Reducing the relative prevalence and incidence of long-term back problems by 10% was estimated to result in a gain of 41.4 billion Australian dollars in GDP over the 10-year period.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this modeling study estimating future productivity losses from long-term back problems, substantial economic gains could be achieved from reducing the prevalence and impact of the condition. This model highlights the need to assess the effectiveness of interventions on work-related outcomes.
PMID:40844779 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.27284
