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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Postmortem Submersion Interval Estimation of Bodies Recovered from the Jingzhou Reach of the Yangtze River by Aquatic Decomposition Score

Fa Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2025 Dec 25;41(6):552-558. doi: 10.12116/j.issn.1004-5619.2023.431205.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To explore the method of postmortem submersion interval (PMSI) estimation for bodies from the Jingzhou reach of the Yangtze River, utilizing an aquatic decomposition score.

METHODS: A total of 105 cases of known PMSI bodies recovered from the Jingzhou reach of the Yangtze River were collected from the cases handled by the Jingzhou Branch of Yangtze River Shipping Public Security Bureau from 2018 to 2022. Considering the average monthly temperature, these cases were categorized into summer and winter groups, with the threshold set at 20 ℃. For each case, the total aquatic decomposition score (TADS) was assessed using the aquatic decomposition score table. The relationship between TADS and PMSI was explored using statistical approach, and two regression equations were established respectively through the natural logarithmic transformation of PMSI. Six bodies recovered in 2023 from the Jingzhou reach of the Yangtze River were selected to verify the equations.

RESULTS: In both summer and winter groups, PMSI was positively correlated with TADS (R2>0.70). The regression equation of summer group was TADS=5.117+4.825×ln(PMSI), and for the winter group, it was TADS=3.191+3.967×ln(PMSI).

CONCLUSIONS: The decomposition degree of the bodies can be used to estimate PMSI combined with the feature of water temperature of the Jingzhou reach of the Yangtze River.

PMID:41796028 | DOI:10.12116/j.issn.1004-5619.2023.431205

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