JAMA Health Forum. 2026 Mar 6;7(3):e260078. doi: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2026.0078.
ABSTRACT
IMPORTANCE: Many US cities track firearm violence with annual homicide counts, which may not capture prevention gains, nonfatal injury trends, and stretches of peace. Metrics that quantify days without shootings provide an opportunity to communicate resilience and guide action. To provide a fuller picture, we introduce 4 novel metrics-shooting-free days (SFDs), shooting death-free days (SDFDs), consecutive shooting-free days (CSFDs), and multiple shooting-free days (MSFDs)-that, to our knowledge, have not previously been calculated across major US cities.
OBJECTIVES: To introduce, compute, and compare the 4 novel metrics across the 10 largest US cities from 2015 through 2024 and to test temporal trends.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Repeated cross-sectional, time-series analyses of daily gun violence incidents measured in 10 US cities with populations exceeding 1 million using Gun Violence Archive data to construct city-day observations from all fatal and nonfatal shooting incidents recorded between January 1, 2015, through December 31, 2024. Linear regressions were used to estimate annual trends. Data were analyzed from June 2025 through January 2026.
EXPOSURES: Calendar year and city, operationalized as city-year panels derived from daily counts of persons shot (killed or injured).
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: SFDs are defined as days per year with no shooting incidents; SDFDs, days with no shooting deaths; CSFDs, maximum number of consecutive days per year with no shooting incidents; and MSFDs, days with fewer than 2 people shot. Outcomes were computed per city per year and calculating the mean across years.
RESULTS: Of the 10 cities, Chicago had the lowest means (1.6 SFDs, 86.9 SDFDs, 0.6 CSFD, and 9.6 MSFDs per year) whereas San Diego had the highest (291.5 SFDs, 337.6 SDFDs, 24.2 CSFDs, and 347.3 MSFDs). A pronounced pullback occurred from 2019 through 2021. Phoenix and Dallas-Fort Worth had significant declines in all 4 metrics. Overall trends were significantly downward: -4.79 SFDs per year (P < .05), -4.50 SDFDs per year (P < .05), -0.30 CSFDs per year (P < .05), and -8.37 MSFDs per year (P < .01). Jacksonville, was the only city to show a significantly improved metric, in MSFDs (0.84 days per year; P < .05).
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These novel metrics highlight periods of success and safety rather than focusing on negative outcomes. Metrics varied widely, worsened overall during the study decade, and highlighted cities with policies and practices that could be replicated. Incorporating shooting-free metrics into public dashboards can motivate communities, sharpen accountability, and guide interventions in US cities.
PMID:41823961 | DOI:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2026.0078
