J Math Biol. 2026 Apr 3;92(4):62. doi: 10.1007/s00285-026-02387-1.
ABSTRACT
The widely used incompatible insect technique based on Wolbachia for the control of mosquito-borne diseases might be limited in field since high temperature has an adverse effect on some Wolbachia, which reduces its density in mosquitoes and induces incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) when the larval habitats experience large temperature fluctuations. By analyzing a model of delay differential equations, we identify a threshold CI intensity, below which the infected male release would not reduce but instead increase the stable adult population level, a phenomenon called suppression paradox, which caused by the overcompensation effect of adult mosquitoes increasing when larval density decreases. For Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in Guangzhou, our simulations predict that paradox would occur if CI intensity is no more than 0.6094. Besides, to reduce at least of the wild adult mosquitoes in the peak season within 8 weeks, we find that the CI intensity should be no less than 0.96, and the least release ratio is sensitive to the CI intensity.
PMID:41928035 | DOI:10.1007/s00285-026-02387-1
