J Environ Manage. 2026 Apr 12;405:129654. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129654. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
This study introduces the Ecosystem Carrying Capacity Assessment System (ECCAS), a unified web-based platform that integrates multi-source geospatial data, physical models, and statistical tools within a modular architecture to dynamically assess ecosystem carrying capacity, quantified as water-sustainable gross primary productivity (GPPs). The platform enables scenario-based simulations by coupling future climate projections with adjustable socio-economic parameters and provides interactive visualization to improve accessibility for non-expert users. Applied to China’s Loess Plateau, a water-limited region undergoing large-scale ecological restoration, ECCAS reveals that 24% of vegetated areas historically exceeded sustainable water thresholds, with pronounced overuse in mountainous regions. Future projections indicate consistent increases in GPPs across all scenarios, with the largest growth reaching up to 50% by the 2050s, highlighting both opportunities for carbon sequestration and emerging pressures on water resources. The modular design ensures transferability to other dryland regions, providing a flexible and interactive platform for supporting land and water management under changing environmental conditions.
PMID:41974081 | DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129654
