J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn. 2021 Mar 3. doi: 10.1007/s10928-021-09743-2. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
The quantitative description of individual observations in non-linear mixed effects models over time is complicated when the studied biomarker has a pulsatile release (e.g. insulin, growth hormone, luteinizing hormone). Unfortunately, standard non-linear mixed effects population pharmacodynamic models such as turnover and precursor response models (with or without a cosinor component) are unable to quantify these complex secretion profiles over time. In this study, the statistical power of standard statistical methodology such as 6 post-dose measurements or the area under the curve from 0 to 12 h post-dose on simulated dense concentration-time profiles of growth hormone was compared to a deconvolution-analysis-informed modelling approach in different simulated scenarios. The statistical power of the deconvolution-analysis-informed approach was determined with a Monte-Carlo Mapped Power analysis. Due to the high level of intra- and inter-individual variability in growth hormone concentrations over time, regardless of the simulated effect size, only the deconvolution-analysis informed approach reached a statistical power of more than 80% with a sample size of less than 200 subjects per cohort. Furthermore, the use of this deconvolution-analysis-informed modelling approach improved the description of the observations on an individual level and enabled the quantification of a drug effect to be used for subsequent clinical trial simulations.
PMID:33660229 | DOI:10.1007/s10928-021-09743-2
