Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Apr 5;119(14):e2111372119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2111372119. Epub 2022 Mar 28.
ABSTRACT
SignificanceRecord-setting fires in the western United States over the last decade caused severe air pollution, loss of human life, and property damage. Enhanced drought and increased biomass in a warmer climate may fuel larger and more frequent wildfires in the coming decades. Applying an empirical statistical model to fires projected by Earth System Models including climate-ecosystem-socioeconomic interactions, we show that fine particulate pollution over the US Pacific Northwest could double to triple during late summer to fall by the late 21st century under intermediate- and low-mitigation scenarios. The historic fires and resulting pollution extremes of 2017-2020 could occur every 3 to 5 y under 21st-century climate change, posing challenges for air quality management and threatening public health.
PMID:35344431 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2111372119
