R Soc Open Sci. 2025 Jun 18;12(6):241934. doi: 10.1098/rsos.241934. eCollection 2025 Jun.
ABSTRACT
We construct a multiscale model of dispersion of mountain pine beetles in western North American forests. Dispersion is modelled at a macroscale (regional scale) by a novel nonlinear stochastic process for population density. This is coupled to a microscale (tree scale) model of population dynamics using a sequential approach, which assumes that dispersion occurs on a slower time scale than local dynamics. We conduct a numerical investigation of the multiscale model properties. While the model depends on a relatively small number of parameters, it can produce a wide range of behaviours, including dispersion patterns qualitatively similar to those of mountain pine beetle infestations. We also conduct a Bayesian calibration for key parameters in the model using synthetic and real data.
PMID:40535940 | PMC:PMC12174937 | DOI:10.1098/rsos.241934
