Neurol Res. 2025 Nov 25:1-14. doi: 10.1080/01616412.2025.2592911. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To develop a predischarge model for predicting 1-year post-discharge all-cause mortality in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) following endovascular treatment (EVT).
METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 947 patients with aSAH who were discharged alive between April 2021 and April 2023 from four neurointerventional centres in China as the training cohort. Candidate variables were selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) combined with the Boruta algorithm. Based on these features, six models – logistic regression (LR), XGBoost, random forest (RF), AdaBoost, decision tree, and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) – were developed and compared. The optimal model was selected by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The external validation cohort comprised 692 aSAH patients discharged alive between April 2023 and April 2024 from two additional centres. Model performance was evaluated using AUC, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Given the imbalanced outcome distribution, we applied the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) to further assess model generalisability.
RESULTS: Among 1,639 patients alive at discharge, 67 (4.1%) died within 1 year. LASSO and Boruta jointly identified five key predictors for model construction: age, modified World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (mWFNS) grade, ICU length of stay (ICU-LOS), C-reactive protein (CRP), and monocyte-to-HDL ratio (MHR). The random forest achieved the best discrimination in training set and remained strong in external validation cohorts.Moreover, SMOTE training yielded further improvements in generalisability.
CONCLUSION: Random forest model enables individualised pre-discharge risk stratification and may guide perioperative management.
PMID:41289577 | DOI:10.1080/01616412.2025.2592911
