Kidney Res Clin Pract. 2025 Dec 4. doi: 10.23876/j.krcp.25.224. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major global public health concern. However, a major challenge in addressing the AKI burden is the lack of global data on AKI-related mortality and its predictions, leaving significant limitations in understanding its trends over time. Therefore, we aimed to estimate AKI-related mortality rate trends and forecast future deaths.
METHODS: We evaluated the temporal trends in age-standardized AKI-related mortality from 1996 to 2021 across 43 countries using the World Health Organization Mortality Database, with future projections through to 2050. Temporal trends were assessed based on age-standardized mortality rates, and future projections up to 2050 were calculated using a predictive model that considered attributable risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
RESULTS: Age-standardized AKI-related mortality rate per 1,000,000 people remained stable from 1996 to 2021 (10.47 [95% confidence interval (CI), 8.84-12.11] to 9.94 [95% CI, 8.32-11.57]). Although age-standardized mortality rates were lower in high-income countries (HICs) compared to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), HICs exhibited a modest but statistically significant increasing trend (from 5.83 per 1,000,000 people [95% CI, 4.21-7.46] to 7.30 [95% CI, 5.66-8.95]), whereas LMICs showed a declining trend (from 19.66 [95% CI, 16.78-22.53] to 15.33 [95% CI, 12.37-18.29]). Projections indicate that mortality will rise to 11.36 per 1,000,000 population (95% CI, 10.65-12.07) by 2050, primarily attributable to population aging.
CONCLUSION: This global time-series modeling study highlights rising AKI-related mortality in HICs and/or aging populations. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to mitigate future AKI-related deaths.
PMID:41342156 | DOI:10.23876/j.krcp.25.224
