Curr Med Res Opin. 2026 Feb 1:1-11. doi: 10.1080/03007995.2026.2621287. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Disordered mineral metabolism is associated with adverse outcomes in dialysis populations, but its prognostic significance in non-dialysis CKD is less well defined. This study evaluated elevated serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and hyperphosphatemia as predictors of mortality and renal outcomes in non-dialysis CKD.
METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, patients from a tertiary renal clinic were followed for >12 months. Elevated ALP was defined as >105 U/L in females or >130 U/L in males; hyperphosphatemia as phosphate >4.5 mg/dL. The primary outcome was mortality, and the secondary outcome was a composite endpoint (ESKD progression, dialysis initiation, or doubling of serum creatinine). Kaplan-Meier, log-rank, and Cox regression analyses were performed (STATA; p <.05).
RESULTS: Among 360 patients (mean age 53.7 ± 13.9 years; follow-up 14 ± 4.2 months), elevated ALP was present in 31.7% and was associated with higher mortality (24.6% vs 8.9%, p <.001) and composite events (45.6% vs 33.9%, p = .03). Hyperphosphatemia occurred in 38.1% and was associated with increased mortality (21.2% vs 9.4%, p = 0.002) and composite outcomes (57.4% vs 25.6%, p <.001). Elevated ALP independently predicted mortality (HR = 2.37; 95% CI = 1.36-4.15; p = .002) but not composite outcomes. Hyperphosphatemia predicted both mortality (HR = 2.59; 95% CI = 1.47-4.57; p = .001) and composite events (HR = 2.55; 95% CI = 1.80-3.60; p <.001). Subgroup analyses demonstrated the highest mortality risk among patients with concurrent elevations in ALP and serum phosphate.
CONCLUSIONS: Elevated ALP independently predicted mortality, while hyperphosphatemia predicted both mortality and CKD progression. Monitoring these biomarkers may improve risk stratification and guide future interventional studies.
PMID:41620976 | DOI:10.1080/03007995.2026.2621287
