Modeling and Simulation of the Role of Mass Testing in Controlling COVID-19

Bull Math Biol. 2026 Feb 21;88(3):42. doi: 10.1007/s11538-026-01593-8.

ABSTRACT

This study explores the role of mass testing in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic using an age-stratified compartmental model. The model evaluates the impact of different testing strategies on the pandemic’s reproduction number, $R_0$ , while also considering social distancing measures and demographic characteristics. The analysis highlights the importance of combining mass testing with isolation strategies to reduce the spread of the virus. The simulations demonstrate that in countries characterized by high levels of elderly cohabitation with younger individuals, vertical isolation is insufficient; horizontal isolation with work restrictions, alongside testing and susceptibility reduction measures, is crucial. For aged developed countries, where cohabitation of the elderly with younger individuals is less prevalent, and for least developed countries, where the population has a predominantly youthful age structure, pandemic control is more feasible with fewer tests. The study also emphasizes the critical role of identifying asymptomatic cases to achieve optimal epidemic control. Lastly, the cost-effectiveness of various testing strategies is examined, providing insights for public health policy decision-making.

PMID:41721946 | DOI:10.1007/s11538-026-01593-8