Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2026 Mar 8;47(3):1833-1844. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202502182.
ABSTRACT
Henan Province plays a crucial strategic role in maintaining national food security. Exploring the collaborative evolution of water resources and cultivated land resources, as well as their driving factors, is of significant importance for achieving the goal of building up strength in agriculture. Using Henan Province as the study area, this study constructed an evaluation index system for the carrying capacity of water resources and cultivated land resources based on statistical data from 2005 to 2023. The entropy method was employed to determine the weights of the evaluation indices and quantitatively assess the carrying capacity levels. The Haken model was used to analyze the synergistic effect between the two resources, while a modified gravity model and social network analysis were applied to reveal the characteristics of the synergistic network. Additionally, the GeoDetector was employed to explore the driving factors of the collaborative relationship. The results indicate that: ① From 2005 to 2023, the water resource carrying capacity index of Henan Province increased by 0.123, rising from a low capacity level to a higher level, while the cultivated land resource carrying capacity index increased by 0.132, rising from low to high capacity, with Pingdingshan City still maintaining a general capacity level. ② From 2005 to 2023, the synergistic degree between water resource carrying capacity and cultivated land resource carrying capacity increased from 0.424 to 0.557, rising from low-level synergy to high-level synergy. Except for Pingdingshan City, which was at a medium-level synergy, all regions in the province achieved high-level or above synergy. ③ The synergistic effect between water resource carrying capacity and cultivated land resource carrying capacity in Henan Province had formed a complex, multi-threaded spatial network structure. During the study period, the stability and connectivity of the spatial network improved, with the intermediary roles of cities weakening, resource control becoming more decentralized, and the network becoming more balanced. The connections and interactions between regions became more significant. ④ Cultivated land resource carrying capacity, as a sequence parameter, determined the current level of water resource carrying capacity and dominated the path and direction of their synergy. Per capita water resources, residents’ consumption level, agricultural electricity intensity, and per capita net income of rural residents were the core driving forces of the synergy between water and cultivated land resource carrying capacity, which were simultaneously influenced by multiple factors and interactions. The findings provide decision-making references for the collaborative evolution and dynamic adaptation of water and cultivated land resources in Henan Province.
PMID:41830261 | DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202502182
