Zhongguo Xiu Fu Chong Jian Wai Ke Za Zhi. 2026 Mar 15;40(3):414-421. doi: 10.7507/1002-1892.202601044.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the changing trends and attributable risk factors of low back pain disease burden in Chinese population from 1990 to 2023, and to predict the related disease burden of low back pain in 2030.
METHODS: Based on the 2023 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database, the incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and characteristics and trends of risk factors among Chinese individuals with low back pain from 1990 to 2023 were analyzed, the age and gender differences in disease burden were assessed, and the disease burden in 2030 was jointly predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average model and age-period-cohort model.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2023, the number of incident cases, the number of prevalent cases, and YLDs in Chinese low back pain population showed an upward trend, from 29.989 1 million cases, 68.636 3 million cases, and 7.732 4 million person-years to 41.383 6 million cases, 95.324 0 million cases, and 10.635 9 million person-years, respectively. The incidence rate, prevalence rate, and YLDs rate increased from 2 543.31 per 100 000, 5 820.89 per 100 000, and 655.77 per 100 000 to 2 892.65 per 100 000, 6 663.01 per 100 000, and 743.43 per 100 000 respectively. However, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized YLDs rate showed a downward trend, from 2 859.73 per 100 000, 6 636.60 per 100 000, and 740.83 per 100 000 to 2 164.80 per 100 000, 4 929.78 per 100 000, and 551.92 per 100 000, respectively. The burden of low back pain in women was significantly higher than that in men and increased with age (peak at 50 to 59 years old). Attribution analysis showed that smoking, occupational factors, and high body mass index (BMI) were the main factors leading to the increase of YLDs, and there was a gender difference. The tow model showed that the age-standardized incidence rate, the age-standardized prevalence rate, and the age-standardized YLDs rate for low back pain would decrease year by year from 2023 to 2030.
CONCLUSION: The disease burden of low back pain in China shows that from 1990 to 2023, the burden of low back pain in the Chinese population has been increasing year by year. Smoking, occupational factors, and high BMI are the main risk factors. Interventions targeting these controllable risk factors are crucial for reducing the disease burden. It is expected that by 2030, the disease burden of low back pain is expected to decrease, although the absolute burden will remain high. Greater attention should be paid to the middle-aged and elderly population, especially the female population, who bear a heavier disease burden. Targeted interventions, such as weight control and smoking cessation management, should be actively implemented against these controllable risk factors.
PMID:41839555 | DOI:10.7507/1002-1892.202601044
