JAMA Netw Open. 2026 Mar 2;9(3):e262645. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2026.2645.
ABSTRACT
IMPORTANCE: Health care systems can help protect patients from the increasing threat of extreme heat-driven morbidity and mortality. Electronic health records (EHRs) provide insight into trends and local variation in thresholds above which extreme heat is associated with emergency department (ED) use among at-risk patient populations.
OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between extreme heat exposure and all-cause ED visits among patients aged 65 years and older.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This matched case-control study of patients seeking emergency care at an urban health care system during the summer (May 1 to September 30) from 2022 to 2024. Two New York City (NYC) EDs were included: (1) ED-1, predominantly serving Medicaid-enrolled patients from minoritized racial and ethnic groups, and (2) ED-2, predominantly serving White, privately insured patients. Included patients were aged 65 years or older and presented to ED-1 and ED-2 during the study period. Data were analyzed from April to August 2025.
EXPOSURES: Daily maximum heat index (HImax) values during the summer were calculated from the National Centers for Environmental Information monitor-derived recordings.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Daily all-cause ED use counts were derived from EHRs, and extreme heat exposure-outcome curves were calculated. Daily HImax anomalies were calculated based on a 30-year baseline average. The cumulative odds ratio (OR) and 95% CIs were calculated.
RESULTS: This study included 55 200 ED encounters and represented 15 092 unique patients at ED-1 and 19 559 at ED-2 with a mean (SD) age of 74.9 (8.92) years at ED-1 and 74.9 (8.72) years at ED-2. Compared with ED-2, more ED-1 patients were female (8589 [56.9%] vs 10 767 [55.0%]), Hispanic (3544 [23.5%] vs 2576 [13.2%]), and Medicaid-enrolled (1321 [8.8%] vs 824 [4.2%]). At ED-1, daily HImax associations increased after 66 °F (OR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.01-1.21]), peaking at 101 °F (OR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.11-1.39]), and were higher on days with HImax anomalies between 15 °F (OR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01-1.13]) and 18 °F (OR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.01-1.20]) warmer than average. At ED-2, daily HImax ED use associations were not significant and were significantly negative for days with HImax anomalies above 16 °F, nadiring at 21 °F (0.84, 95% CI [0.73, 0.95]) warmer than average.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this case-control study of the association between heat exposure and ED use in adults aged 65 years and older, positive associations were only observed at ED-1, which served a predominantly lower-income population from minoritized racial and ethnic groups. These association thresholds were not fully captured by NYC heat advisories, which were triggered by 2 days above HImax 95 °F or any time above 100 °F, highlighting an opportunity for future research to develop targeted, risk-informed health care system-based heat warning strategies.
PMID:41860548 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2026.2645
