J Neurosurg. 2025 Dec 5:1-9. doi: 10.3171/2025.7.JNS25718. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: The US neurosurgical workforce faces growing demand driven by an aging population and rising prevalence of neurological conditions. This study projects workforce supply and demand from 2022 to 2037, highlighting potential shortages and geographic disparities.
METHODS: Workforce projections (2022-2037) were obtained from the Health Resources & Services Administration’s National Center for Health Workforce Analysis Dashboard, using the Health Workforce Simulation Model to estimate supply and demand by specialty, year, and location. Supply, measured in full-time equivalents (FTEs), accounted for new entrants, retirements, and attrition. Demand was projected under two scenarios: 1) status quo and 2) reduced barriers, reflecting improved access for underserved populations. Workforce adequacy (supply-to-demand ratio) was assessed, with descriptive statistics and state-level heat maps generated using Excel and Python in Google Colab.
RESULTS: The neurosurgery workforce is projected to grow slightly from 7060 FTEs in 2022 to 7230 FTEs by 2037 (+2.4%). Under the status quo scenario, demand rises from 7060 to 8310 FTEs (+18%), while the reduced barriers scenario shows an increase from 9280 to 11,830 FTEs (+27%). Workforce adequacy decreases across both scenarios, with national adequacy dropping from 100% to 87% under the status quo and from 72% to 61% under reduced barriers. Metropolitan areas maintain higher adequacy compared with nonmetropolitan areas but still face shortages over time. State-level disparities persist through 2037, with adequacy ranging from 400% in the District of Columbia to 33% in Delaware. By then, neurosurgery ranks 18th under the status quo and 33rd under reduced barriers among 37 specialties.
CONCLUSIONS: Significant neurosurgical workforce shortages are projected through 2037, with growing demand outpacing modest supply increases, particularly under the reduced barriers scenario. Targeted strategies are needed to address geographic disparities and ensure adequate neurosurgical care nationwide.
PMID:41349031 | DOI:10.3171/2025.7.JNS25718