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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Modeling Diagnostic Expertise in Cases of Irreducible Uncertainty: The Decision-Aligned Response Model

Acad Med. 2023 Jan 1;98(1):88-97. doi: 10.1097/ACM.0000000000004918. Epub 2022 Aug 9.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Assessing expertise using psychometric models usually yields a measure of ability that is difficult to generalize to the complexity of diagnoses in clinical practice. However, using an item response modeling framework, it is possible to create a decision-aligned response model that captures a clinician’s decision-making behavior on a continuous scale that fully represents competing diagnostic possibilities. In this proof-of-concept study, the authors demonstrate the necessary statistical conceptualization of this model using a specific electrocardiogram (ECG) example.

METHOD: The authors collected a range of ECGs with elevated ST segments due to either ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) or pericarditis. Based on pilot data, 20 ECGs were chosen to represent a continuum from “definitely STEMI” to “definitely pericarditis,” including intermediate cases in which the diagnosis was intentionally unclear. Emergency medicine and cardiology physicians rated these ECGs on a 5-point scale (“definitely STEMI” to “definitely pericarditis”). The authors analyzed these ratings using a graded response model showing the degree to which each participant could separate the ECGs along the diagnostic continuum. The authors compared these metrics with the discharge diagnoses noted on chart review.

RESULTS: Thirty-seven participants rated the ECGs. As desired, the ECGs represented a range of phenotypes, including cases where participants were uncertain in their diagnosis. The response model showed that participants varied both in their propensity to diagnose one condition over another and in where they placed the thresholds between the 5 diagnostic categories. The most capable participants were able to meaningfully use all categories, with precise thresholds between categories.

CONCLUSIONS: The authors present a decision-aligned response model that demonstrates the confusability of a particular ECG and the skill with which a clinician can distinguish 2 diagnoses along a continuum of confusability. These results have broad implications for testing and for learning to manage uncertainty in diagnosis.

PMID:36576770 | DOI:10.1097/ACM.0000000000004918

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A Comparison of the Representation of Women in Editor Positions at Major Medical Journals in 2021 vs 2011

Acad Med. 2023 Jan 1;98(1):75-79. doi: 10.1097/ACM.0000000000004964. Epub 2022 Sep 6.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: There continues to be a disparity in the representation of women across medicine, including in editor positions at major medical journals. The authors repeated a study they had conducted in 2011 to compare the representation of women in editor-in-chief and editorial board member positions in 2011 and 2021.

METHOD: The authors included in their analysis the 60 journals from their original 2011 study and the top 5 ranked journals by Journal Impact Factor in each of 12 disciplines in 2021. This led to the inclusion of 86 journals. The authors collected the names and genders of the editors-in-chief and editorial board members at these journals, using information provided by the journals and a Google search for the photos and/or pronouns of the remaining editors. They compared results across years (2021 vs 2011), editor positions, disciplines, Journal Impact Factors, and ranks.

RESULTS: Twenty-two of the 90 editors-in-chief (24.4%) were women in 2021 compared with 10 of 63 (15.9%) in 2011, an increase of 8.5%. Of the 6,285 editorial board members, 1,756 were women (27.9%) in 2021 compared with 719 of 4,112 (17.5%) in 2011, an increase of 10.4%. Journals with women editors-in-chief gained 3.5 ranks and 9.1 points in Journal Impact Factor on average over this 10-year period, compared with no gain in rank and an increase of 4.7 points in Journal Impact Factor for journals with men editors-in-chief; both are statistically significant differences (P = .045 and P = .016, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS: In almost all evaluated disciplines and editor positions, there was an increase in the percentage of women at top-ranked medical journals over a 10-year period. Despite this increase, improvements are still needed to accelerate the currently slow rate of change in these positions to enhance diversity, equity, and inclusion for women in medicine.

PMID:36576769 | DOI:10.1097/ACM.0000000000004964

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Assessment of Mental Health Services Available Through Smartphone Apps

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Dec 1;5(12):e2248784. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.48784.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: As more patients and clinicians are turning to mental health smartphone apps to expand access to services, little is known about the current state of the app marketplaces and what these apps are actually offering in terms of features, privacy, price, and services.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the current state of mental health apps, explore the association between app privacy scores and popularity as measured by star ratings and downloads, and to understand opportunities and challenges facing the commercial app landscape.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study had trained raters using the public-facing M-Health Index and Navigation Database (MIND) to assess and review 578 mental health apps. The sample of apps used in this analysis were pulled from MIND and include apps across various conditions including schizophrenia, eating disorders, sleep, and more. Analysis of these apps was conducted in June 2022.

EXPOSURES: There were 578 mental health apps rated across 105 dimensions derived from the American Psychiatric Association’s app evaluation framework.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: App raters assessed each app across 6 categories: (1) app origin and accessibility, (2) privacy and security, (3) clinical foundation, (4) features and engagement, (5) inputs and outputs, and (6) interoperability. Privacy scores were determined by 5 MIND criteria, including (1) having a privacy policy, (2) reporting security measures in place, (3) declaring data use and purpose, (4) allowing for the deletion of data, and (5) allowing users to opt out of data collection. Correlations between privacy scores and popularity metrics (star ratings and number of downloads) were measured.

RESULTS: This study included 578 mental health apps that were identified, assessed, and analyzed across 105 MIND dimensions. Psychoeducation, goal setting, and mindfulness were among the top app features. Of the 578 apps analyzed, 443 (77%) had a privacy policy. This analysis of apps with a privacy policy revealed that there was no statistically significant correlation between privacy scores and Apple App Store (r = 0.058, P = .29) or Google Play Store star ratings (r = 0.041; P = .48). The number of app downloads on the Google Play Store, however, was weakly correlated with privacy scores (χ25 = 22.1; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study of mental health apps, findings indicate that the current app marketplaces primarily offered basic features such as psychoeducation, goal tracking, and mindfulness but fewer innovative features such as biofeedback or specialized therapies. Privacy challenges remained common, and app popularity metrics provided little help in identifying apps with more privacy.

PMID:36576737 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.48784

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Introducing the fragility index-A case study using the Term Breech Trial

Birth. 2022 Dec 28. doi: 10.1111/birt.12698. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The fragility index (FI) is a sensitivity analysis of the statistically significant result of a clinical study. It is the number of hypothetical changes in the primary event of one of the two cohorts in a 1-to-1 comparative trial to render the statistically significant result non-significant (ie, to alter the P-value from ≤0.05 to >0.05). The FI can be compared with the patient drop-out rates and protocol violations, which, if much higher than the FI, may arguably suggest less robustness/stability of the trial’s results. To illustrate the concept, we have chosen the Term Breech Trial (TBT) as a case study. The TBT results favor planned cesarean birth, as opposed to planned vaginal delivery, in the term singleton fetus with breech presentation. Our analysis shows that the FI of the TBT is 21, which is small in comparison to the number (hundreds) of protocol violations present. Some experts have suggested the inclusion of the FI in data analysis and subsequent discussion of clinical trial data. Routine use of such a metric may be valuable in encouraging readers to maintain a healthy degree of skepticism, especially when interpreting trial results which may directly influence clinical practice.

PMID:36576726 | DOI:10.1111/birt.12698

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Non-coding RNAs as potential biomarkers of gallbladder cancer

Clin Transl Oncol. 2022 Dec 28. doi: 10.1007/s12094-022-03056-7. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Gallbladder cancer (GBC) performs strongly invasive and poor prognosis, and adenocarcinoma is the most common histological type in it. Statistically, the 5-year survival rate of patients with advanced GBC is less than 5%. Such dismal outcome might be caused by chemotherapy resistance and native biology of tumor cells, regardless of emerging therapeutic strategies. Early diagnosis, depending on biomarkers, receptors and secretive proteins, is more important than clinical therapy, guiding the pathologic stage of cancer and the choice of medication. Therefore, it is in urgent need to understand the specific pathogenesis of GBC and strive to find promising novel biomarkers for early screening in GBC. Non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs), especially microRNAs (miRNAs, miRs), long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs), and circular RNAs (circRNAs), are confirmed to participate in and regulate the occurrence and development of GBC. Exceptionally, lncRNAs and circRNAs could act as competing endogenous RNAs (ceRNAs) containing binding sites for miRNAs and crosstalk with miRNAs to target regulatory downstream protein-coding messenger RNAs (mRNAs), thus affecting the expression levels of specific proteins to participate in and regulate the development and progression of GBC. It follows that ncRNAs may become promising biomarkers and potential therapeutic targets for GBC. In this review, we mainly summarize the recent research progress of miRNAs and lncRNAs in regulating the development and progression of GBC, chemoresistance, and predicting the prognosis of patients, and highlight the potential applications of the lncRNA/circRNA-miRNA-mRNA cross-regulatory networks in early diagnosis, chemoresistance, and prognostic evaluation, aiming to better understand the pathogenesis of GBC and develop new diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.

PMID:36576705 | DOI:10.1007/s12094-022-03056-7

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Infective endocarditis: statistical methods and analytical concerns

Infection. 2022 Dec 28. doi: 10.1007/s15010-022-01971-z. Online ahead of print.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:36576701 | DOI:10.1007/s15010-022-01971-z

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Evaluation of subclinical left ventricular systolic dysfunction using two-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiography in patients with Child-Pugh A and B cirrhosis: A case-control study

Indian J Gastroenterol. 2022 Dec 28. doi: 10.1007/s12664-022-01277-w. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Although studies have proven that liver cirrhosis affects cardiac hemodynamics by means of circulatory overload, they present with definite cardiac functional alteration mostly with end-stage disease. There is limited data on relationship between progression of cirrhosis, cardiac mechanics and sub-clinical dysfunction. This study was done to assess ventricular myocardial mechanics using speckle tracking and deformation imaging among Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification A and B cirrhosis.

METHOD: Seventy patients with cirrhosis of Child-Pugh A/B class and sixty-two healthy subjects were prospectively evaluated by standard conventional echocardiography and deformation imaging with rotational echocardiography. Clinical stage of liver cirrhosis was assessed by model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores and CTP classification.

RESULTS: Mean ages of patients with cirrhosis and controls were 55.64±14 years and 52.24±12 years, respectively. Though left ventricular (LV) dimensions (end diastolic dimension: 47.27±4.6 mm vs. 45.03±3.8 mm, p = 0.003; end systolic dimension: 30.33±4.9 mm vs. 28.40±2.91 mm, p = 0.006) and volumes (end diastolic volume: 82.08±22.53 mL vs. 68.18±15.75 mL, p = 0.001; end systolic volume: 28.60±8.42 mL vs. 22.18±7.48 mL, p = 0.001) were significantly higher in patients with cirrhosis, mean ejection fraction (EF) by Simpsons method was higher among controls (65.83±5.79% vs. 68.35±5.79%, p = 0.009). Left atrial volume was higher in cirrhosis group indicating presence of diastolic dysfunction (41.24±14.10 mL vs. 26.08±6.4 mL, p = 0.001). Global longitudinal strain as assessed by speckle tracking echocardiography did not show statistical significant difference between two groups (-22.35±4.08% vs. -21.80±2.54%, p = 0.348). Median value of torsion parameters in patients with cirrhosis did not differ compared to controls (torsion in degrees: 2.46 vs. 2.79, p = 0.268).

CONCLUSION: Patients with Child-Pugh A and B stages of cirrhosis present with preserved longitudinal strain, normal torsion but with subtle diastolic dysfunction. Higher MELD score may correlate with increased longitudinal strain possibly due to hyperdynamic state.

PMID:36576699 | DOI:10.1007/s12664-022-01277-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of garlic in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Indian J Gastroenterol. 2022 Dec 28. doi: 10.1007/s12664-022-01287-8. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analyses to examine the therapeutic effect of garlic on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS: We searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase databases for retrieving articles investigating the impact of garlic on NAFLD patients. The comprehensive meta-analysis software version 2.0 was used for statistical analysis. The standardized mean difference with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was reported and the effect size was calculated.

RESULTS: A preliminary search yielded a total of 293 articles. After screening articles based on inclusion criteria, four articles were included in the final analyses. This systematic review included 186 patients with NAFLD. The result of the meta-analysis showed significant differences between the garlic and placebo groups regarding changes in alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, triglyceride, and fasting blood sugar. Moreover, the probability of a decrease in hepatic steatosis was 2.75 times lower in the garlic group compared with the placebo group (RR [95% CI]: 2.75 [1.79, 4.23], p-value<0.001).

CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis demonstrates that garlic supplementation had a positive effect on hepatic steatosis, liver enzyme levels, and metabolic profile of patients with NAFLD. However, considering the potential limitation of the included studies, more high-quality clinical trials are needed.

PMID:36576698 | DOI:10.1007/s12664-022-01287-8

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Aberrant white matter microstructure evaluation by automated fiber quantification in typhoon-related post-traumatic stress disorder

Brain Imaging Behav. 2022 Dec 28. doi: 10.1007/s11682-022-00755-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Super typhoons can lead to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which can adversely affect a person’s mental health after a disaster. Neuroimaging studies suggest that patients with PTSD may have post-exposure abnormalities of the white matter. However, little is known about these defects, if they are localized to specific regions of the white matter fibers, or whether they may be potential biomarkers for PTSD. Typhoon survivors with PTSD (n = 27), trauma-exposed controls (TEC) (n = 33), and healthy controls (HCs) (n = 30) were enrolled. We used automated fiber quantification (AFQ) to process the participants’ DTI and compared diffusion metrics among the three groups. To evaluate diagnostic value, we used support vector machine (SVM) and a random forest (RF) classifier to build a machine learning model. White matter fiber segmentation between the three groups was found to be statistically significant for the fractional anisotropy (FA) value of the right anterior thalamic radiation (ATR) (26-50 nodes) and right uncinate fasciculus (UF) (60-72 nodes) (FDR correction, p < 0.05). By analyzing the characteristics of the machine learning model, the two most important variables were the right ATR and right UF for differentiating PTSD and trauma-exposed controls (TEC) from the healthy controls (HC). In addition, the left cingulum cingulate and left UF were the most critical variables in the differentiation of PTSD and TEC. AFQ with machine learning can localize abnormalities in specific regions of white matter fibers. These regions may be used as a diagnostic biomarker for PTSD.

PMID:36576688 | DOI:10.1007/s11682-022-00755-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with ER-negative/HER2-negative, T1abN0 breast cancer: a nationwide study

Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2022 Dec 28. doi: 10.1007/s10549-022-06839-2. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of chemotherapy on invasive disease-free survival (iDFS) and overall survival (OS) in a nationwide cohort of patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-negative/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative, T1abN0 breast cancer.

METHODS: Patients with ER-negative/HER2-negative, T1abN0 breast cancer registered in the Danish Breast Cancer Group database between 2007 and 2016 were identified. The effect of adjuvant chemotherapy on iDFS and OS was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards analysis.

RESULTS: In total, 296 patients were included in the statistical analyses. Of these, 235 (79.4%) received chemotherapy and 61 patients (20.6%) did not. Patients treated with chemotherapy were significantly younger, had a significantly higher proportion of grade 3 tumors, T1b tumors, and tumors of ductal subtype. With 7.7 years of median follow-up, treatment with chemotherapy was associated with a significant improvement in OS in the adjusted analysis, Hazard Ratio 0.35 (95% Confidence Interval (0.15-0.81), p = 0.02), chemotherapy vs. no chemotherapy. In the unadjusted analyses, patients with both T1a and T1b tumors had significantly improved OS with chemotherapy. At 5 years, OS was 100% vs. 94.4% and 93.8% vs. 81.3% for patients with T1a and T1b tumors, respectively, chemotherapy vs. no chemotherapy. With 4.9 years of median follow-up, iDFS was not significantly improved with chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION: Patients with ER-negative/HER2-negative, T1abN0 breast cancer had significantly improved OS when treated with chemotherapy. This improvement was significant in patients with both T1a and T1b tumors, respectively. The effect was, however, limited in patients with T1a tumors.

PMID:36576678 | DOI:10.1007/s10549-022-06839-2