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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Morphometric OCT parameters of the lens under accommodative stimulus. Report 1. Assessment of age-related changes

Vestn Oftalmol. 2026;142(1):5-13. doi: 10.17116/oftalma20261420115.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The structural approach to studying the mechanism of accommodation and its age-related changes focuses on analyzing morphometric parameters (size, shape, and position) of the crystalline lens as the key element responsible for changes in clinical refraction during accommodation. The latest-generation swept-source (SS) anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) device CASIA2 (Tomey, Japan) enables near-screening evaluation of lens shape and position both at baseline and under accommodative stimulus. In the latter case, the integrated optical system provides lens-induced accommodative stress directly in the examined eye.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate age-related changes in various morphometric parameters of the lens measured by CASIA2 OCT under accommodative stimulus.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study cohort comprised 74 healthy volunteers (123 eyes, i.e., clinical observations) aged 20-85 years. The exclusion criteria were clinically significant refractive errors and ocular diseases. Three groups were formed according to age: 20-30 years, 31-50 years, and >51 years (43, 33, and 47 clinical observations, respectively). Scanning was performed under conditions of relative accommodative rest and during accommodative stimulus. In the latter case, a lens-induced method of accommodative stimulus was used, employing a -5.0 D negative spherical lens and a fixation target in the form of a radial figure integrated into the optical system of the CASIA2 OCT device.

RESULTS: Analysis of the entire cohort (n=123) revealed significant changes in morphometric parameters of the lens under accommodative stimulus, including a decrease in the radius of curvature of the anterior (p=0.003) and posterior (p=0.045) lens surfaces, an increase in lens thickness (p=0.011) and nuclear thickness (p=0.007), as well as a reduction in lens diameter (p=0.026) and anterior chamber depth (p=0.033). The radius of curvature of the anterior lens surface under relative accommodative rest in Group 1 (20-30 years) was significantly higher (p=0.00) than in Groups 2 (31-50 years) and 3 (>51 years), with median values of 11.62, 9.47, and 9.25 mm, respectively. The magnitude of changes in lens curvature radius significantly decreased with increasing age for both the anterior and posterior surfaces. Baseline lens thickness and nuclear thickness increased significantly with age and also demonstrated an increase under accommodative stimulus across all age groups. A statistically significant correlation with age was found for the radius of curvature of the anterior surface (r=-0.371; p=0.00) and the posterior surface (r=-0.224; p=0.013), as well as for lens thickness (r=0.268; p=0.003).

CONCLUSION: Anterior segment OCT using the CASIA2 system is a highly informative method for assessing morphometric parameters of the crystalline lens under conditions of relative accommodative rest and lens-induced accommodative stress. Under accommodative stress, statistically significant changes included a decrease in the radius of curvature of the anterior and posterior lens surfaces, an increase in lens thickness and nuclear thickness, and a decrease in lens diameter and anterior chamber depth. Analysis of the magnitude of changes induced by accommodative stimulus and their correlation with age demonstrated statistically significant negative associations between age and the radius of curvature of the anterior and posterior lens surfaces, and a positive association with lens thickness.

PMID:41847802 | DOI:10.17116/oftalma20261420115

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Comparative Analysis of Pharmaceutical Content Following Spaceflight and Vacuum Exposure During Commercial Extravehicular Activity

Wilderness Environ Med. 2026 Mar 18:10806032261426910. doi: 10.1177/10806032261426910. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IntroductionPharmaceutical stability is a key concern for space missions, where radiation, microgravity, and prelaunch repackaging may accelerate drug degradation. While prior studies examined medications in environmentally controlled spacecraft, data on vacuum exposure are limited. The Polaris Dawn mission provided an opportunity to evaluate drug content following depressurization of the Dragon spacecraft and exposure to the vacuum of space during extravehicular activity.MethodsNineteen medications (13 repackaged solid, 6 liquid) flew as part of the SpaceX medical kit and were analyzed with lot-matched terrestrial controls. All samples underwent ultra-performance liquid chromatography mass spectrometry analysis upon return. The primary outcome was the percent difference in active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) between vacuum exposure and ground controls. A secondary outcome was the absolute API content expressed as a percentage of labeled dosage.ResultsSeventeen of the 19 flown medications demonstrated a < 5% mean API difference between spaceflight and lot-matched terrestrial controls, remaining within the prespecified threshold for clinical significance. Seven medications showed statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between the 2 groups, yet all but one medication remained within this 5% range. Against the narrow 95%-105% of labeled dosage criterion, 10 ground controls and 11 spaceflight-exposed medications fell outside this range. Expanding to the broader 80%-120% range, nearly all medications were within acceptable limits.ConclusionsShort-duration spaceflight with vacuum exposure resulted in modest differences in drug content between spaceflight and terrestrial samples. However, high concordance suggests no clinically meaningful degradation, supporting the feasibility of repackaged pharmaceuticals for commercial and exploratory missions.

PMID:41847800 | DOI:10.1177/10806032261426910

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

SIMBA-a Bayesian decision framework for the identification of optimal biomarker subgroups for cancer basket clinical trials

Biometrics. 2026 Jan 6;82(1):ujag043. doi: 10.1093/biomtc/ujag043.

ABSTRACT

Motivated by a multi-indication basket trial aiming to assess the efficacy of a novel biomarker-targeted therapy in gastric or gastroesophageal junction (G/GEJ), pancreatic, and other related cancers, we consider a statistical design and decision-making framework for such trials. Typically, the investigational therapy in the trial targets a biomarker that is present in multiple cancer indications, and patients with higher biomarker expression tend to exhibit higher response rates, assuming the targeting biomarkers are over-expressed in tumor cells. To enable information sharing across indications, the proposed SIMBA method introduces a Bayesian hierarchical model that defines positive and negative biomarker subgroups and identifies optimal go/no-go decisions. The operating characteristics of SIMBA are assessed via simulations and compared against existing methods in the literature. Overall, SIMBA is constructed to improve the identification of patient sub-populations who may benefit from biomarker-targeted therapeutics.

PMID:41847799 | DOI:10.1093/biomtc/ujag043

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Implementation challenges of 3-month once-weekly rifapentine and isoniazid TB-preventive treatment in India

Int Health. 2026 Mar 18:ihag014. doi: 10.1093/inthealth/ihag014. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Implementing three months of once-weekly rifapentine and isoniazid (3HP) for tuberculosis preventive therapy among household contacts (HHCs) of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB patients in India presents programmatic challenges requiring understanding from beneficiary and provider perspectives.

METHODS: From May 2023 to March 2024, nine focus group discussions were conducted across five rural and urban program settings: three with HHCs who received 3HP (n=28) and six with frontline healthcare providers (n=69) delivering the regimen within a multicentric implementation study. Descriptive thematic analysis explored experiences, perceptions, and implementation challenges.

RESULTS: Analysis of FGDs yielded four major themes: (i) perceptions and acceptance of 3HP; (ii) barriers to 3HP; (iii) advocacy and communication and social mobilization; and (iv) suggestions for improving 3HP. Participants appreciated the short, once-weekly regimen and family encouragement supporting adherence. However, reluctance to undergo testing without symptoms, fear of side effects, stigma, and access barriers limited uptake. Suggested solutions included transport support, mobile X-ray services, reminder tools, and family DOTS providers. Providers highlighted workforce shortages and the need for additional staff.

CONCLUSION: Both groups emphasized tailored counselling, strengthened community awareness, and media advocacy to improve uptake, adherence, and program sustainability of 3HP implementation at scale nationwide.

PMID:41847763 | DOI:10.1093/inthealth/ihag014

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A Causal Perspective on “Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies” (Comment on Fleming et al.)

Stat Med. 2026 Mar;45(6-7):e70455. doi: 10.1002/sim.70455.

ABSTRACT

This commentary offers perspectives on delivering “rigorous causal inference on meaningful estimands” that differ from the opinions recently shared by Fleming et al. We (1) depict a more robust pathway for achieving this aim that incorporates clinical, causal and statistical reasoning, (2) suggest a tangibility criterion to judge the practical usefulness of an intercurrent event strategy, (3) illustrate the utility of causal inference methods in providing robust estimates when the clinical objective aligns with a hypothetical strategy, and (4) advocate for careful consideration of the tradeoffs between an estimand’s relevance and the required assumptions.

PMID:41847726 | DOI:10.1002/sim.70455

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Safety and efficacy of combined ethanol and bleomycin sclerotherapy via percutaneous pigtail catheter for benign cervical cystic lesions: a single-center retrospective study

Diagn Interv Radiol. 2026 Mar 18. doi: 10.4274/dir.2026.263802. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To evaluate the safety and efficacy of combined ethanol lavage and bleomycin sclerotherapy administered via a percutaneous pigtail catheter for the treatment of benign cervical cystic lesions.

METHODS: This retrospective study included 29 patients (mean age, 30 years; range, 4-60 years; male-to-female ratio, 16:13) who underwent bleomycin sclerotherapy following ethanol lavage via a pigtail catheter for benign cervical cystic lesions, including branchial cleft cysts, ranulas, thyroglossal duct cysts, lymphatic malformations, and epidermoid cysts, between March 2009 and September 2022. To explore potential predictors of treatment response, clinical diagnosis, baseline cyst size, and the total volume of injected sclerosant were evaluated. Statistical analyses included the paired t-test, chi-square test, and Mann-Whitney U test.

RESULTS: All patients were followed up for a mean duration of 18.2 months (range, 3-72 months) after the final treatment session. Complete cyst resolution was achieved in 17 of the 29 patients (59%), 8 patients (27%) demonstrated a volume reduction greater than 75%, and 2 patients (7%) exhibited a reduction of less than 75%; recurrence occurred in 2 patients (7%) despite repeated sclerotherapy. There were no significant differences between responders and nonresponders with respect to clinical diagnosis, baseline cyst volume, or total sclerosant dose. Minor procedure-related complications occurred in three patients (10.34%); no major complications were observed.

CONCLUSION: Combined ethanol lavage and bleomycin sclerotherapy administered via a percutaneous pigtail catheter is a safe and feasible treatment option for benign cervical cystic lesions.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Combined ethanol and bleomycin sclerotherapy represents a safe, minimally invasive treatment option for benign cervical cystic lesions in routine clinical practice, with favorable outcomes and potential to reduce the need for surgical intervention.

PMID:41847722 | DOI:10.4274/dir.2026.263802

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

What Makes an Estimand Useful? Guidance on the Choice of Intercurrent Event Strategies

Stat Med. 2026 Mar;45(6-7):e70452. doi: 10.1002/sim.70452.

ABSTRACT

While the use of estimands in randomized trials is increasing, there is little guidance on which intercurrent event strategies should be used. The article by Fleming et al. seeks to address this gap. They argue that strategies such as hypothetical, principal stratum, and while-alive generally cannot be used to reliably inform decision making, and that treatment policy (and composite for mortality) strategies should be used instead. In this Commentary we argue that there are a variety of settings where strategies such as hypothetical, principal stratum, and while-alive can reliably inform decision-making and are preferable to a treatment policy strategy. We provide an alternative approach for selecting intercurrent event strategies, which systematically considers the trade-off between relevance (whether it addresses a useful question) and reliability (the ability to be estimated such that stakeholders can have confidence in the results) of each strategy in order to identify those that can be used to robustly inform decision-making. Our overall conclusion is that there is no single intercurrent event strategy that is appropriate in all settings; all strategies can be beneficial when used in appropriate settings, but harmful when used in inappropriate settings.

PMID:41847719 | DOI:10.1002/sim.70452

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Commentary on Fleming et al. “A Perspective on the Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies for Handling Intercurrent Events”

Stat Med. 2026 Mar;45(6-7):e70453. doi: 10.1002/sim.70453.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:41847717 | DOI:10.1002/sim.70453

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Study finds ChatGPT gets science wrong more often than you think

A new study put ChatGPT to the test by asking it to judge whether hundreds of scientific hypotheses were true or false—and the results were far from reassuring. While the AI got it right about 80% of the time on the surface, its performance dropped significantly when accounting for random guessing, revealing only modest reasoning ability. Even more concerning, it frequently contradicted itself when asked the exact same question multiple times, sometimes flipping answers back and forth.
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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Deep survival modelling to predict future cognitive impairment in unimpaired adults

J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2026 Mar 17:glag076. doi: 10.1093/gerona/glag076. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Predicting Alzheimer’s disease (AD)-related cognitive impairment (CI) among cognitively normal (CN) adults enables meaningful disease modification through early intervention and enrichment of clinical trials.

METHODS: A deep survival model is trained to predict CI conversion risk in 1,415 CN adults from the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center. Converters’ (N = 212) and non-converters’ (N = 1,203) baseline clinical measures and magnetic resonance images are used to estimate their conversion probability up to 22 years after baseline observation.

RESULTS: After 20-fold cross-validation, the model predicts conversion probability with a c-index of 0.88, and classification accuracy of 75% and AUC ROC of 0.89, outperforming previous machine learning models.

CONCLUSIONS: This is one of few studies on the important challenge of predicting future CI among unimpaired subjects. Deep survival modelling can improve the identification of preclinical AD and suggests that uncertainty in AD risk estimation is due to potentially modifiable lifestyle factors.

PMID:41844537 | DOI:10.1093/gerona/glag076