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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Factors Associated with Reliable Contact Tracing During the 2021 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Guinea

J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2024 Feb 19. doi: 10.1007/s44197-024-00202-y. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In 2021, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak was declared in Guinea, linked to persistent virus from the 2014-2016 West Africa Epidemic. This paper analyzes factors associated with contact tracing reliability (defined as completion of a 21-day daily follow-up) during the 2021 outbreak, and transitively, provides recommendations for enhancing contact tracing reliability in future.

METHODS: We conducted a descriptive and analytical cross-sectional study using multivariate regression analysis of contact tracing data from 1071 EVD contacts of 23 EVD cases (16 confirmed and 7 probable).

RESULTS: Findings revealed statistically significant factors affecting contact tracing reliability. Unmarried contacts were 12.76× more likely to miss follow-up than those married (OR = 12.76; 95% CI [3.39-48.05]; p < 0.001). Rural-dwelling contacts had 99% lower odds of being missed during the 21-day follow-up, compared to those living in urban areas (OR = 0.01; 95% CI [0.00-0.02]; p < 0.01). Contacts who did not receive food donations were 3× more likely to be missed (OR = 3.09; 95% CI [1.68-5.65]; p < 0.001) compared to those who received them. Contacts in health areas with a single team were 8× more likely to be missed (OR = 8.16; 95% CI [5.57-11.96]; p < 0.01) than those in health areas with two or more teams (OR = 1.00; 95% CI [1.68-5.65]; p < 0.001). Unvaccinated contacts were 30.1× more likely to be missed compared to vaccinated contacts (OR = 30.1; 95% CI [5.12-176.83]; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that contact tracing reliability can be significantly influenced by various demographic and organizational factors. Considering and understanding these factors-and where possible addressing them-may be crucial when designing and implementing contact tracing strategies during future outbreaks in low-resource settings.

PMID:38372893 | DOI:10.1007/s44197-024-00202-y

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The Relation Between Cigarette Smoking and Development of Sepsis: A 10-Year Follow-Up Study of Four Million Adults from the National Health Screening Program

J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2024 Feb 19. doi: 10.1007/s44197-024-00197-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Sepsis remains a growing global health concern with soaring mortality and no direct anti-sepsis drug. Although smoking has distinct deleterious effects on chronic inflammatory illnesses and can impair immune function, a comprehensive analysis of the connection between sepsis and smoking is lacking.

METHODS: This large-scale longitudinal cohort study retrospectively assessed adults aged ≥ 20 years who underwent national health checkups under the Korean National Health Insurance Service between January and December 2009 (N = 4,234,415) and were followed up for 10 years. Sepsis was identified based on the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes, and smoking status, including accumulated amount, was collected through a self-administered questionnaire. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used, adjusting for age, sex, household income, body mass index, drinking, exercise, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and chronic renal disease.

RESULTS: After excluding cases with sepsis occurring before follow-up or after ≤ 1 year of follow-up, 3,881,958 participants, including non-smokers (N = 2,342,841), former smokers (N = 539,850), and active smokers (N = 999,267), were included. Compared to non-smokers, all active smokers (adjust hazard ratio: 1.41, 95% confidence interval 1.38-1.44) and former smokers (1.10, 1.07-1.14) with ≥ 20 pack-years exhibited a significantly higher risk of sepsis (p < 0.001). Smoking of ≥ 30 pack-years in former and active smokers groups significantly increased sepsis incidence (adjust hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 1.34 [1.31-1.38], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: Smoking is closely associated with the incidence of sepsis. Smoking cessation may help in the primary prevention of sepsis.

PMID:38372892 | DOI:10.1007/s44197-024-00197-6

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Serial measurements of SIRS and SEP scores to identify unique phenotypes of sepsis

Intern Emerg Med. 2024 Feb 19. doi: 10.1007/s11739-023-03512-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Using scoring systems in discreet microbiologic cohorts in a serial fashion to identify unique phenotypes of sepsis remains unknown. Single-center, retrospective study that screened adults who triggered the hospital’s SIRS (systemic inflammatory response syndrome) based sepsis alert into culture positive (Cx +) and culture negative (Cx-) groups. Subgroups were based on the location where the SIRS alert fired. SIRS scores and a novel score called SEP were calculated at t = 0 and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 h before and after t = 0. Primary outcome was a difference in SIRS/SEP scores in Cx + or Cx- groups over time. Secondary outcomes were differences in total SIRS/SEP scores and the components constituting SIRS/SEP scores at various locations over time. The study contained 7955 patients who met inclusion criteria. Cx + and Cx- groups had increases in SIRS/SEP scores and at similar rates starting 6 hours before t = 0. Both culture groups had decreasing SIRS/SEP scores, at varying gradients compared to the change in SIRS/SEP scores seen prior to t = 0. This pattern in SIRS/SEP scores before and after t = 0 was consistent in all location subgroups. Statistically significant differences were seen in the overall SIRS/SEP scores for Cx + and Cx- groups at hours 6, 12, and 24 after t = 0, in the ED group at t = 24 h after t = 0, the floor group at t = 0 h, and in the step-down group at t = 3 h after t = 0 h. Microbiological cohorting and serial assessments may be an effective tool to identify homogenous phenotypes of sepsis.

PMID:38372887 | DOI:10.1007/s11739-023-03512-4

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Microaxial mechanical circulatory support after orthotopic heart transplantation

Int J Artif Organs. 2024 Feb 19:3913988231213722. doi: 10.1177/03913988231213722. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIM: Use of microaxial mechanical circulatory support (MCS) has been reported for severe graft rejection or dysfunction after heart transplantation (HTx). We aimed to assess utilization patterns of microaxial MCS after HTx in adolescents (ages 18 and younger) and adults (ages 19 and older).

METHODS: Electronic search was performed to identify all relevant studies on post-HTx use of microaxial support in adults and adolescents. A total of 18 studies were selected and patient-level data were extracted for statistical analysis.

RESULTS: All patients (n=23), including adults (n=15) and adolescents (n=8), underwent Impella (Abiomed, Danvers, MA) microaxial MCS after HTx. Median age was 36 [IQR 18-56] years (Adults, 52 [37-59]; adolescents, 16 [15-17]). Primary right ventricular graft dysfunction was an indication exclusively seen in the adults 40% (6/15), while acute graft rejection was present in 46.7% (7/15) of adults. Median time after transplant was 9 [0-32] months (Adults, 4 [0-32]; adolescents, 11 [4.5, 45]). Duration of Impella support was comparable between adults and adolescents (5 [2.5-8] vs 6 [5-8] days, p = 0.38). Overall improvement was observed both in median LV ejection fraction (23.5% [11.3-28] to 42% [37.8-47.3], p < 0.01) and cardiac index (1.8 [1.2-2.6] to 3 [2.5-3.1], p < 0.01). Retransplantation was required in four adolescents (50%, 4/8). Survival to discharge was achieved by 60.0% (9/15) of adults and 87.5% (7/8) of adolescents respectively (p = 0.37).

CONCLUSION: Indications for microaxial MCS appear to vary between adult and adolescent patients. Overall improvement in LVEF and cardiac index was observed, however, with suboptimal survival to discharge.

PMID:38372215 | DOI:10.1177/03913988231213722

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The optimization of microbial functions through rational environmental manipulations

Mol Microbiol. 2024 Feb 19. doi: 10.1111/mmi.15236. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Microorganisms play a central role in biotechnology and it is key that we develop strategies to engineer and optimize their functionality. To this end, most efforts have focused on introducing genetic manipulations in microorganisms which are then grown either in monoculture or in mixed-species consortia. An alternative strategy to optimize microbial processes is to rationally engineer the environment in which microbes grow. The microbial environment is multidimensional, including factors such as temperature, pH, salinity, nutrient composition, etc. These environmental factors all influence the growth and phenotypes of microorganisms and they generally “interact” with one another, combining their effects in complex, non-additive ways. In this piece, we overview the origins and consequences of these “interactions” between environmental factors and discuss how they have been built into statistical, bottom-up predictive models of microbial function to identify optimal environmental conditions for monocultures and microbial consortia. We also overview alternative “top-down” approaches, such as genetic algorithms, to finding optimal combinations of environmental factors. By providing a brief summary of the state of this field, we hope to stimulate further work on the rational manipulation and optimization of the microbial environment.

PMID:38372207 | DOI:10.1111/mmi.15236

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The Ankle Ligament Reconstruction-Return to Sport after Injury (ALR-RSI) is a valid and reliable measure to assess psychological readiness before returning to sport following peroneal tendon pathology surgery

Knee Surg Sports Traumatol Arthrosc. 2024 Feb 19. doi: 10.1002/ksa.12078. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to validate a scale that could help surgeons evaluate patients’ psychological readiness to return to sport (RTS) after peroneal tendon pathology surgery.

METHODS: The Ankle Ligament Reconstruction-Return to Sport after Injury (ALR-RSI) scale, which had previously been validated in ankle ligament reconstruction patients, was adapted to evaluate the psychological preparedness for RTS in athletic patients who underwent peroneal tendinopathy surgery. The Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS) and Foot Ankle Ability Measurement (FAAM) scores were employed as patient-related outcome measurement (PROM) instruments.

RESULTS: This study included 57 patients. There was a strong correlation between ALR-RSI and both FAOS and FAAM (r = -0.68 and 0.74, respectively). ALR-RSI was considerably higher in patients who returned to sports than in those who did not. The mean score was 72.9 ± 19.0 in patients who returned to the same preinjury level, 48.5 ± 24.0 in those who returned to a lower level and 53.6 ± 31.1 in patients who changed their athletic activity (p < 0.0001). Furthermore, ALR-RSI showed at least a similar discrimination ability when compared to FAOS and FAAM. The test-retest intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.95. The Cronbach’s α statistic used to measure the internal consistency was high (0.95). A Youden index of 0.65 was observed for a cut-off score of 68 points.

CONCLUSION: ALR-RSI is a valid instrument for assessing psychological readiness to RTS in an athletic population following peroneal tendon surgery. When compared to the most commonly used PROMs, it was strongly correlated and demonstrated at least similar discrimination capacity. This could assist surgeons in identifying athletes who will have poor postoperative results and advising them on their capability to RTS.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.

PMID:38372173 | DOI:10.1002/ksa.12078

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Acromioclavicular joint dislocation Rockwood type III and V show no difference in functional outcome and 91% recovered well without the need for surgery

Knee Surg Sports Traumatol Arthrosc. 2024 Feb 19. doi: 10.1002/ksa.12070. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Acromioclavicular (AC) joint dislocations are common injuries, but the indication for and timing of surgery is debated. The objective of the study was to evaluate the results after acute AC joint dislocations Rockwood type III and V treated nonsurgically with the option of delayed surgical intervention.

METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study with clinical, radiological and patient-reported outcome assessment at baseline, 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and 1 year after acute AC joint dislocation. Patients aged 18-60 with acute AC joint dislocation and a baseline panorama (Zanca) radiograph with an increase in the coracoclavicular distance of >25% compared to the uninjured side were eligible for inclusion. All patients were treated nonsurgically with 3 months of home-based training and with the option of delayed surgical intervention. The primary outcome was the Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index (WOSI). Secondary outcomes were surgery yes/no and the Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (SPADI).

RESULTS: Ninety-five patients were included. Fifty-seven patients were Rockwood type III and 38 patients were type V. There were no statistically significant differences in WOSI and SPADI between patients with type III and V injuries at any time point. Nine patients (9.5%) were referred for surgery; seven type III and two type V (ns).

CONCLUSION: Ninety-one percent of patients with acute AC joint dislocation Rockwood type III and V recovered without surgery and there were no differences in outcome scores between type III and V at any time point.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level IV.

PMID:38372155 | DOI:10.1002/ksa.12070

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Hebbian learning can explain rhythmic neural entrainment to statistical regularities

Dev Sci. 2024 Feb 19:e13487. doi: 10.1111/desc.13487. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

In many domains, learners extract recurring units from continuous sequences. For example, in unknown languages, fluent speech is perceived as a continuous signal. Learners need to extract the underlying words from this continuous signal and then memorize them. One prominent candidate mechanism is statistical learning, whereby learners track how predictive syllables (or other items) are of one another. Syllables within the same word predict each other better than syllables straddling word boundaries. But does statistical learning lead to memories of the underlying words-or just to pairwise associations among syllables? Electrophysiological results provide the strongest evidence for the memory view. Electrophysiological responses can be time-locked to statistical word boundaries (e.g., N400s) and show rhythmic activity with a periodicity of word durations. Here, I reproduce such results with a simple Hebbian network. When exposed to statistically structured syllable sequences (and when the underlying words are not excessively long), the network activation is rhythmic with the periodicity of a word duration and activation maxima on word-final syllables. This is because word-final syllables receive more excitation from earlier syllables with which they are associated than less predictable syllables that occur earlier in words. The network is also sensitive to information whose electrophysiological correlates were used to support the encoding of ordinal positions within words. Hebbian learning can thus explain rhythmic neural activity in statistical learning tasks without any memory representations of words. Learners might thus need to rely on cues beyond statistical associations to learn the words of their native language. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: Statistical learning may be utilized to identify recurring units in continuous sequences (e.g., words in fluent speech) but may not generate explicit memory for words. Exposure to statistically structured sequences leads to rhythmic activity with a period of the duration of the underlying units (e.g., words). I show that a memory-less Hebbian network model can reproduce this rhythmic neural activity as well as putative encodings of ordinal positions observed in earlier research. Direct tests are needed to establish whether statistical learning leads to declarative memories for words.

PMID:38372153 | DOI:10.1111/desc.13487

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Intelligently Quantifying the Entire Irregular Dental Structure

J Dent Res. 2024 Feb 19:220345241226871. doi: 10.1177/00220345241226871. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Quantitative analysis of irregular anatomical structures is crucial in oral medicine, but clinicians often typically measure only several representative indicators within the structure as references. Deep learning semantic segmentation offers the potential for entire quantitative analysis. However, challenges persist, including segmentation difficulties due to unclear boundaries and acquiring measurement landmarks for clinical needs in entire quantitative analysis. Taking the palatal alveolar bone as an example, we proposed an artificial intelligence measurement tool for the entire quantitative analysis of irregular dental structures. To expand the applicability, we have included lightweight networks with fewer parameters and lower computational demands. Our approach finally used the lightweight model LU-Net, addressing segmentation challenges caused by unclear boundaries through a compensation module. Additional enamel segmentation was conducted to establish a measurement coordinate system. Ultimately, we presented the entire quantitative information within the structure in a manner that meets clinical needs. The tool achieved excellent segmentation results, manifested by high Dice coefficients (0.934 and 0.949), intersection over union (0.888 and 0.907), and area under the curve (0.943 and 0.949) for palatal alveolar bone and enamel in the test set. In subsequent measurements, the tool visualizes the quantitative information within the target structure by scatter plots. When comparing the measurements against representative indicators, the tool’s measurement results show no statistically significant difference from the ground truth, with small mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and errors interval. Bland-Altman plots and intraclass correlation coefficients indicate the satisfactory agreement compared with manual measurements. We proposed a novel intelligent approach to address the entire quantitative analysis of irregular image structures in the clinical setting. This contributes to enabling clinicians to swiftly and comprehensively grasp structural features, facilitating the design of more personalized treatment plans for different patients, enhancing clinical efficiency and treatment success rates in turn.

PMID:38372132 | DOI:10.1177/00220345241226871

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Does-dual mobility still offer improved stability in smaller cup sizes? A computer modelling comparison of stability with 22-mm versus 28-mm inner heads in dual-mobility versus single-bearing constructs

Hip Int. 2024 Feb 19:11207000231220031. doi: 10.1177/11207000231220031. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Dislocation remains 1 of the leading causes of revision after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and there is clear evidence the dual-mobility (DM) is used more frequently to minimise this. But in smaller cups, whether the use of DM with smaller 22-mm heads imparts any increased stability compared to standard bearing is unknown; especially when those smaller cups now allow for large single-bearing (SB) heads.

METHODS: 3 primary cup sizes (48 mm, 50 mm, 52 mm) were chosen a priori for modelling. Head sizes trialled for the standard bearing (SB) constructs group were 28-0 mm, 32-0 mm and 36-0 mm against neutral polyethylene liners. In the modular sub-hemispheric DM constructs the inner head sizes for the DM constructs were altered where appropriate (22-0 mm vs. 28-0 mm). Cup position, stem offset, and stem size were standardised.

RESULTS: Both DM constructs outperformed all SB constructs because of a statistically significant jump distance increase (p < 0.001). However, there was no difference in range of motion (ROM) or jump distances between the 22-mm and 28-mm DM inner heads.The ROM angle before impingement between the DM (with 22-mm or 28-mm heads) and SB (with different head sizes where appropriate) showed no statistically significant difference. However, DM constructs presented significantly larger jump distances than SB constructs for both provocative dislocation tests across all 3 cup sizes.Of interest, for 50-mm and 52-mm cup sizes (for which this particular DM construct design can accommodate both 22-mm and 28-mm inner heads), there were no differences in ROM or jump distance between 22-mm versus 28-mm inner heads.

CONCLUSIONS: In this computer-modelling study, DM constructs are advantageous over SB constructs for improving jump distances in clinically provocative positions, but not range of motion angles. Inner head diameter of DM has no effect on stability.

PMID:38372123 | DOI:10.1177/11207000231220031