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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Novel framework for river health assessment: principal component-based water quality index and causal inference through regression discontinuity design

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2026 May 26. doi: 10.1007/s11356-026-37859-w. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Rivers in industrial regions face significant pressure from anthropogenic activities, often resulting in degraded water quality. This study investigates long-term water quality dynamics of the Damodar River in West Bengal, India, using a multi-index approach and advanced statistics. Six established Water Quality Indices (WQIs) were computed using monthly data from 2014 to 2024 across ten monitoring sites. To reconcile the inconsistencies among individual indices, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to generate a unified metric termed the Principal Component Averaged WQI (PCAWQI). Furthermore, to quantify the causal impact of the COVID-19 lockdown (March-May 2020) on river health, we employed a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) using Bayesian structural time-series modeling (CausalImpact). The composite PCAWQI successfully captured spatial and temporal pollution gradients, highlighting critical midstream deterioration. Additionally, site-specific improvements in water quality were observed during the lockdown, with some sites exhibiting significant gains likely due to industrial inactivity. However, heterogeneous responses underscored the influence of socio-cultural and hydrological factors. Thus, by integrating dimensionality reduction and causal inference techniques, we developed a robust and replicable framework for water quality assessment. This framework can be utilized for environmental monitoring and policy evaluation in heavily industrialized river basins.

PMID:42189471 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-026-37859-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Groundwater quality assessment in Bihar’s aquifers: a machine learning approach

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2026 May 26. doi: 10.1007/s11356-026-37867-w. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Globally, the primary concern affecting the suitability of groundwater for drinking is the presence of numerous chemical contaminants in large-scale aquifer systems. Therefore, it is essential to establish reliable methods for assessing groundwater quality and determining the origin of groundwater contaminants. This study developed a comprehensive, data-driven method for evaluating the quality of large-scale groundwater in the State of Bihar, India, using a traditional Water Quality Index (WQI) and a statistically based Root Mean Square Water Quality Index (RMS-WQI). In the present study, four state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, namely, Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Light Gradient Boosting Model (LGBM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting Model (XGBoost), were evaluated to assess their utility in predicting groundwater quality. Of the four models tested, XGBoost demonstrated the highest degree of predictive performance, exhibiting high levels of accuracy in terms of R2 values of 0.984 for the WQI and 0.994 for the RMS-WQI and low error metrics. Spatial diagnostics of the RMS-WQI model employing the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Model Efficiency Factor (MEF), and Percent Relative Error Index (PREI) identified heterogeneity in model performance, particularly in the data-volatile Gaya District, where NSE = -0.1. The uncertainty and robustness of the ML model were thoroughly evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations, which showed a reliability of 88.5%. Geochemical analysis indicated that both natural geochemical and anthropogenically influenced processes contributed to the variability in groundwater chemistry. Four main contributors to groundwater chemistry were identified through absolute principal component scores-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR): mineral dissolution (32.7%), water-rock interactions (20.1%), mixed sources (16.3%), and anthropogenic inputs (13.2%). This innovative integrated methodology provides a scalable and cost- effective decision-making tool for predicting the spatial distribution of groundwater quality and supports the development of sustainable hydro-environmental management practices, while also supporting the achievement of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6.

PMID:42189468 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-026-37867-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

“It’s Our Superpower”: A Mixed-Methods Study to Understand Motivation and Capabilities for HIV Management Among African American/Black and Latine Emerging Adults Living With HIV

AIDS Behav. 2026 May 26. doi: 10.1007/s10461-026-05178-3. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

African American/Black and Latine (AABL) emerging adults living with HIV have insufficient engagement along the HIV care continuum, and lower rates than their White peers. Some subpopulations (e.g., those with unsuppressed HIV viral load, immigrants) and aspects of their experiences are understudied. This study uses a sequential explanatory mixed-methods design to explore motivational appraisals (e.g., core health goals), generative capabilities (e.g., self-efficacy, resilience), and their relationships to HIV management in a diverse cohort. Structured baseline assessments were conducted (N = 271). A subset of these was purposively sampled for maximum variability for qualitative interviews (N = 41). Quantitative data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and a structural equation model (SEM). Primary outcomes were HIV care engagement and viral suppression. Quantitative results informed qualitative research questions; qualitative data were analyzed with directed content analysis. We used the joint display method to integrate results. Participants were 25 years old (SD = 2), on average. The majority (59%) were Latine/Hispanic, 41% were African American/Black. Nearly all were assigned male sex at birth (96%) and sexual minorities (93%). Approximately half (49.1%) were immigrants. Almost a third (28%) were not well-engaged in care and 19% were not virally suppressed. Motivation, adherence self-efficacy, and medication outcome expectancies were high regardless of viral suppression. In the SEM, self-efficacy had a positive direct effect on motivation (B = 0.24, p < 0.01); and resilience (B = 0.02, p = 0.04) and self-efficacy (B = 0.23, p < 0.01) each had positive direct effects on outcome expectancies. Motivation (B = 0.26, p = 0.02) had a positive direct effect on care engagement. There were no statistically significant direct effects on viral suppression. In the qualitative results, participants focused on medication/viral suppression, but not HIV care. We organized qualitative results into four themes: (1) why participants took medication (e.g., desire for longevity, to be “normal” and attractive, and avoid transmitting HIV); (2) how they took medication (e.g., learning over time, creating routines and habits); (3) factors that interfered (e.g., structural barriers/disruptions could overwhelm motivation); and (4) issues salient to immigrants (e.g., moving to the US for better care, honoring family by taking medication). This study advances knowledge on HIV management among diverse AABL emerging adults living with HIV, and identifies intervention targets.

PMID:42189459 | DOI:10.1007/s10461-026-05178-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Three-dimensional crown-root movement in first premolar extraction cases treated with two clear aligner systems based on different materials: a retrospective cohort study

Prog Orthod. 2026 May 26;27(1):20. doi: 10.1186/s40510-026-00624-3.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: To quantify and compare the three-dimensional (3D) deviations of crown and root movements produced by two clear aligner systems based on different materials-SmartTrack (ST) and MasterControl S (MCS)-in first premolar extraction cases using a 3D crown-root registration approach.

METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 29 patients (58 dental sides) treated with ST (n = 15) or MCS (n = 14). Pretreatment (T0) CBCT images were integrated with T0 and post-treatment (T1) intraoral scans and superimposed using palatal rugae as reference structures. Linear mixed-effects models (LMM) were applied to estimate between-material differences while adjusting for age, sex, and standardized planned movement magnitude. Estimates are reported with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS: The two systems demonstrated no statistically significant difference in deviation in sagittal crown retraction of the maxillary central incisor (U1) (ST: 1.25 (1.30) mm; MCS: 2.13 (1.82) mm; LMM difference: – 0.81 mm; 95% CI – 1.89-0.28; P = 0.145). MCS demonstrated smaller deviation in sagittal root positioning for the second premolar (U5) (difference: 1.07 mm; 95% CI 0.21-1.93; P = 0.015) and first molar (U6) (difference: 1.04 mm; 95% CI 0.13-1.94; P = 0.025). ST showed improved control of U5 axial inclination (difference: 3.33°; 95% CI 0.27-6.39; P = 0.033) and torque (difference: 3.04°; 95% CI 0.08 to 6.00; P = 0.044). Both systems exhibited a consistent “roller-coaster effect”, with no significant difference in unplanned U1 extrusion (difference: 0.14 mm; 95% CI – 0.73-1.02; P = 0.747).

CONCLUSIONS: The biomechanical performance of clear aligner systems appears to vary depending on tooth position and movement vector. SmartTrack demonstrated better control of premolar angulation and torque, whereas MasterControl S showed closer agreement with the planned sagittal root position.

PMID:42189428 | DOI:10.1186/s40510-026-00624-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Identification of end-stage renal disease-associated loci in X chromosome: an X chromosome-wide association study

MedScience. 2026 May 26. doi: 10.1007/s11684-026-1205-3. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

X-chromosomal genetic variants have been understudied in end-stage renal disease (ESRD), which holds the promise to provide valuable insights into sexually dimorphic traits and diseases. Here we performed an X chromosome-wide association study (XWAS) in a Chinese cohort (N = 2750), comprising 1489 cases with ESRD and 1261 controls, to identify locus associated with ESRD risk. One locus showing a consistent effect direction across sex but primarily supported by the male cohort was identified in COL4A5 (P = 2.43 × 10-6) in the metaanalysis combining summary statistics from the sex-stratified XWAS. COL4A5 codes for the alpha chain of type IV collagen, which is essential for the integrity of the glomerular basement membrane and normal glomerular function. Two male-specific loci, MIR3202-2 (P = 6.85 × 10-5) and SYTL4 (P = 1.71 × 10-5), were identified in the sex-stratified XWAS in males, and expression of SYTL4, TSPAN6, NOX1, CSTF2, and PCDH19 was found to be influenced by the ESRD loci near SYTL4 based on expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) results from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project. In summary, our findings revealed three X-chromosome loci linked to ESRD risk, which provided foundational knowledge for genetic risk prediction and advanced our understanding of the molecular underpinnings of ESRD.

PMID:42189395 | DOI:10.1007/s11684-026-1205-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Decoding disease signatures through glycomics: insights from cohort studies

MedScience. 2026 May 26. doi: 10.1007/s11684-026-1250-y. Online ahead of print.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:42189394 | DOI:10.1007/s11684-026-1250-y

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Third molar maturity on panoramic radiographs as an indicator of the 18-year threshold: a pilot cases study

Forensic Sci Med Pathol. 2026 May 26. doi: 10.1007/s12024-026-01270-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to assess the reliability of the Demirjian and Olze staging systems for mandibular third molars using panoramic radiographs in a medico-legal context. A retrospective pilot study was conducted on 25 medico-legal cases from a Medico-Legal Institute. Panoramic radiographs were evaluated using the Demirjian (A-H) and Olze (0-3) methods. Chronological age was compared with radiographic findings. Statistical analyses included sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and Cohen’s kappa coefficient. Demirjian stage H and Olze stages 2-3 were observed only in individuals aged 18 years or older, whereas stages C-G and Olze stage 0 were found exclusively in those under 18. Both staging methods demonstrated high diagnostic performance within this sample, with sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values reaching 100% for identifying legal adulthood. Agreement between methods was complete (κ = 1.00), with high inter- and intra-observer reliability (κ = 0.84; ICC = 0.92). No significant sex-related differences were observed. Panoramic analysis of third molars appears to be a promising, reproducible, and ethically acceptable approach for distinguishing minors from adults in this medico-legal context. However, given the pilot design and limited sample size, these findings should be interpreted with caution. Larger multicenter studies, including the integration of skeletal indicators, are required to establish robust and generalizable reference standards.

PMID:42189383 | DOI:10.1007/s12024-026-01270-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Surgical versus conservative management of groove pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Updates Surg. 2026 May 26. doi: 10.1007/s13304-026-02685-9. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Groove pancreatitis (GP) is a rare form of focal chronic pancreatitis involving the pancreaticoduodenal groove and frequently mimics pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, posing significant diagnostic and therapeutic challenges. This review comprehensively evaluated the demographics, clinical presentation, diagnostic approaches, and comparative effectiveness of surgical versus non-surgical management strategies in GP. A total of 24 studies comprising 562 patients were included. The patient-weighted mean age was 50.6 years, with a marked male predominance (84.3%). Abdominal pain (92.3%), weight loss (70.5%), and nausea/vomiting (47.1%) were the most common presenting features. Non-surgical management (conservative and endoscopic approaches) achieved complete success in 78.9% (131/166) of patients, while surgical management achieved complete success in 82.4% (197/239). Random-effects meta-analysis revealed pooled complete success proportions of 0.76 (95% CI 0.56-0.88) for non-surgical treatment and 0.775 (95% CI 0.708-0.830) for surgery. Sensitivity analysis restricted to resective surgical procedures demonstrated a pooled complete success rate of 0.823 (95% CI 0.764-0.870) with no observed heterogeneity (I2 = 0.0%). Direct comparative analysis showed no statistically significant difference between strategies (risk ratio 0.99; 95% CI 0.73-1.36), indicating equivalent efficacy. Heterogeneity was substantial in the non-surgical group (I2 = 64.2%) but low in the surgical group (I2 = 5.8%). Given the observational design, treatment heterogeneity, inadequate follow-up, and indirect nature of most comparisons, the available evidence does not establish superiority or equivalence between surgical and non-surgical management. Non-surgical management may be considered as an initial approach in selected patients, whereas surgery remains appropriate for refractory, complicated, or diagnostically uncertain cases.

PMID:42189376 | DOI:10.1007/s13304-026-02685-9

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Vitamin D in Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Critical Systematic Review of Evidence and Methodological Limitations

J Autism Dev Disord. 2026 May 26. doi: 10.1007/s10803-026-07365-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D is discussed in neurodevelopmental and immune pathways relevant to autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This systematic review synthesizes evidence on serum vitamin D status and vitamin D supplementation outcomes in children and adolescents with ASD, with descriptive reporting of one combined vitamin D plus omega-3 arm for context only.

METHODS: PubMed was searched on 16 August 2024 for observational studies reporting serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of vitamin D supplementation; the primary narrative synthesis of trial evidence was restricted to double-blind, placebo-controlled studies with the maximum Jadad score (5/5).

RESULTS: Eight observational studies met inclusion criteria. Most reported lower 25(OH)D in children with ASD compared with comparator groups, while neonatal findings were mixed across cohorts. Among three placebo-controlled RCTs, one high-dose study reported statistically significant improvements on symptom scales, whereas trials using 2,000 IU/day reported marginal or no effects on ASD-related outcomes. One combined vitamin D plus omega-3 trial arm is summarized descriptively for context.

CONCLUSION: Current evidence does not support vitamin D supplementation as a general ASD-targeted intervention. Larger, well-controlled trials with prespecified baseline status, standardized outcomes, and safety-focused follow-up are needed to clarify potential subgroup effects and clinical relevance.

PMID:42189368 | DOI:10.1007/s10803-026-07365-6

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Association between chrononutrition patterns and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in adolescents: a population-based study

Eat Weight Disord. 2026 May 26. doi: 10.1007/s40519-026-01874-0. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have primarily examined the benefits of calorie restriction and fasting for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, the impacts of eating timing and frequency on MASLD remain uncertain.

METHODS: This study comprised 2128 participants aged 12 to 19 years, drawn from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data collected during the period 2017 to 2023. Chrononutrition patterns were determined with two 24-h dietary recalls. Logistic regression, accounting for potential confounders, was used to examine the relationship between chrononutrition patterns and MASLD. Subgroup analyses stratified by demographic and clinical variables were used to evaluate their potential impact on the associations observed. Mediation analysis was conducted to assess the indirect effects of metabolic indicators on MASLD risk.

RESULTS: Logistic regression demonstrated that the timing of the first (continuous: OR: 1.07; 95% CI 1.02-1.14) and midpoint (continuous: OR: 1.11; 95% CI 1.00-1.22) food/beverage intake, as well as energy intake at dinner (OR: 1.01; 95% CI 1.00-1.01), were significantly associated with an increased risk of MASLD. Furthermore, the eating window (continuous: OR: 0.95; 95% CI 0.91-0.99) was significantly negatively correlated with the risk of MASLD. Subgroup analyses revealed that the chrononutrition pattern was particularly linked to an elevated risk of MASLD among males and Mexican Americans (P < 0.05). Additionally, HDL-C and NHHR (58.69% and 61.90%, respectively) partially mediated the association between the timing of the first food/beverage intake and MASLD risk.

CONCLUSION: Later timing of the first and midpoint food and beverage intake, as well as greater energy consumption at dinner, are linked to an elevated risk of MASLD. HDL-C and NHHR serve as mediators in these associations, particularly with respect to the timing of the first food or beverage intake.

PMID:42189361 | DOI:10.1007/s40519-026-01874-0