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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Key Points for Clinicians About the SEER Oral Cancer Survival Calculator

JAMA Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2023 Jul 10. doi: 10.1001/jamaoto.2023.1977. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: In the setting of a new cancer diagnosis, the focus is usually on the cancer as the main threat to survival, but people may have other conditions that pose an equal or greater threat to their life than their cancer: a competing risk of death. This is especially true for patients who have cancer of the oral cavity, because prolonged exposure to alcohol and tobacco are risk factors for cancer in this location but also can result in medical conditions with the potential to shorten life expectancy, competing as a cause of death that may intervene in conjunction with or before the cancer.

OBSERVATIONS: A calculator designed for public use has been released that allows patients age 20 to 86 years who have a newly diagnosed oral cancer to obtain estimates of their health status-adjusted age, life expectancy in the absence of the cancer, and probability of surviving, dying of the cancer, or dying of other causes within 1 to 10 years after diagnosis. The models in the calculator showed that patients with oral cavity cancer had a higher than average risk of death from other causes than the matched US population, and this risk increases by stage.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program Oral Cancer Survival Calculator supports a holistic approach to the life of the patient, and the risk of death of other causes is treated equally to consideration of the probability of death of the cancer. This tool may be usefully paired with the other available prognostic calculators for oral cancer and is an example of the possibilities now available with registry linkages to partially overlapping or independent data sets and statistical techniques that allow the use of 2 time scales in 1 analysis.

PMID:37429019 | DOI:10.1001/jamaoto.2023.1977

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EMS Administration of Systemic Corticosteroids to Pediatric Asthma Patients: An Analysis by Severity and Transport Interval

Prehosp Emerg Care. 2023 Jul 10:1-14. doi: 10.1080/10903127.2023.2234996. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Pediatric asthma exacerbations are a common cause of emergency medical services (EMS) encounters. Bronchodilators and systemic corticosteroids are mainstays of asthma exacerbation therapy, yet data on the efficacy of EMS administration of systemic corticosteroids are mixed. This study’s objective was to assess the association between EMS administration of systemic corticosteroids to pediatric asthma patients on hospital admission rates based on asthma exacerbation severity and EMS transport intervals.Methods: This is a sub-analysis of the Early Administration of Steroids in the Ambulance Setting: An Observational Design Trial (EASI AS ODT). EASI AS ODT is a non-randomized, stepped wedge, observational study examining outcomes one year before and one year after seven EMS agencies incorporated an oral systemic corticosteroid option into their protocols for the treatment of pediatric asthma exacerbations. We included EMS encounters for patients ages 2 – 18 years confirmed by manual chart review to have asthma exacerbations. We compared hospital admission rates across asthma exacerbation severities and EMS transport intervals using univariate analyses. We geocoded patients and created maps to visualize the general trends of patient characteristics.Results: A total of 841 pediatric asthma patients met inclusion criteria. While most patients were administered inhaled bronchodilators by EMS (82.3%), only 21% received systemic corticosteroids, and only 19% received both inhaled bronchodilators and systemic corticosteroids. Overall, there was no significant difference in hospitalization rates between patients who did and did not receive systemic corticosteroids from EMS (33% vs. 32%, p = 0.78). However, although not statistically significant, for patients who received systemic corticosteroids from EMS, there was an 11% decrease in hospitalizations for mild exacerbation patients and a 16% decrease in hospitalizations for patients with EMS transport intervals greater than 40 minutes.Conclusion: In this study, systemic corticosteroids were not associated with a decrease in hospitalizations of pediatric patients with asthma overall. However, while limited by small sample size and lack of statistical significance, our results suggest there may be a benefit in certain subgroups, particularly patients with mild exacerbations and those with transport intervals longer than 40 minutes. Given the heterogeneity of EMS agencies, EMS agencies should consider local operational and pediatric patient characteristics when developing standard operating protocols for pediatric asthma.

PMID:37428954 | DOI:10.1080/10903127.2023.2234996

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A simple mechanism for collective decision-making in the absence of payoff information

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Jul 18;120(29):e2216217120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2216217120. Epub 2023 Jul 10.

ABSTRACT

Animals are often faced with time-critical decisions without prior information about their actions’ outcomes. In such scenarios, individuals budget their investment into the task to cut their losses in case of an adverse outcome. In animal groups, this may be challenging because group members can only access local information, and consensus can only be achieved through distributed interactions among individuals. Here, we combined experimental analyses with theoretical modeling to investigate how groups modulate their investment into tasks in uncertain conditions. Workers of the arboreal weaver ant Oecophylla smaragdina form three-dimensional chains using their own bodies to bridge vertical gaps between existing trails and new areas to explore. The cost of a chain increases with its length because ants participating in the structure are prevented from performing other tasks. The payoffs of chain formation, however, remain unknown to the ants until the chain is complete and they can explore the new area. We demonstrate that weaver ants cap their investment into chains, and do not form complete chains when the gap is taller than 90 mm. We show that individual ants budget the time they spend in chains depending on their distance to the ground, and propose a distance-based model of chain formation that explains the emergence of this tradeoff without the need to invoke complex cognition. Our study provides insights into the proximate mechanisms that lead individuals to engage (or not) in collective actions and furthers our knowledge of how decentralized groups make adaptive decisions in uncertain conditions.

PMID:37428910 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2216217120

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High-dose oral vitamin D supplementation for prevention of infections in children aged 0 to 59 months: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Nutr Rev. 2023 Jul 10:nuad082. doi: 10.1093/nutrit/nuad082. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT: Vitamin D plays an important role in immune function, and the deficiency thereof has been associated with several infections, most notably respiratory tract infections. However, data from intervention studies investigating the effect of high-dose vitamin D supplementation on infections have been inconclusive.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the level of evidence regarding the efficacy of vitamin D supplementation above the standard dose (400 IU) in preventing infections in apparently healthy children < 5 years of age.

DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, Web of Science, Google Scholar, CINAHL, and MEDLINE electronic databases were searched between August 2022 and November 2022. Seven studies met the inclusion criteria.

DATA EXTRACTION: Meta-analyses of outcomes in more than one study were performed using Review Manager software. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistic. Randomized controlled trials in which vitamin D was supplemented at > 400 IU compared with placebo, no treatment, or standard dose were included.

DATA ANALYSIS: Seven trials that enrolled a total of 5748 children were included. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95%CIs were calculated using random- and fixed-effects models. There was no significant effect of high-dose vitamin D supplementation on the incidence of upper respiratory tract infection (OR, 0.83; 95%CI, 0.62-1.10). There was a 57% (95%CI, 0.30-0.61), 56% (95%CI, 0.27-0.07), and 59% (95%CI, 0.26-0.65) reduction in the odds of influenza/cold, cough, and fever incidence, respectively, with daily supplementation of vitamin D > 1000 IU. No effect was found on bronchitis, otitis media, diarrhea/gastroenteritis, primary care visits for infections, hospitalizations, or mortality.

CONCLUSION: High-dose vitamin D supplementation provided no benefit in preventing upper respiratory tract infections (moderate certainty of evidence) but reduced the incidence influenza/cold (moderate certainty of evidence), cough, and fever (low certainty of evidence). These findings are based on a limited number of trials and should be interpreted with caution. Further research is needed.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration number CRD42022355206.

PMID:37428896 | DOI:10.1093/nutrit/nuad082

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Claims-Based Frailty Index as a Measure of Dementia Severity in Medicare Claims Data

J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2023 Jul 10:glad166. doi: 10.1093/gerona/glad166. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Dementia severity is unavailable in administrative claims data. We examined whether a claims-based frailty index (CFI) can measure dementia severity in Medicare claims.

METHODS: This cross-sectional study included the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) Round 5 participants with possible or probable dementia whose Medicare claims were available. We estimated the Functional Assessment Staging Test (FAST) scale (range: 3 [mild cognitive impairment] to 7 [severe dementia]) using information from the survey. We calculated CFI (range: 0-1, higher scores indicating greater frailty) using Medicare claims 12 months prior to the participants’ interview date. We examined C-statistics to evaluate the ability of the CFI in identifying moderate-to-severe dementia (FAST stage 5-7) and determined the optimal CFI cut-point that maximized both sensitivity and specificity.

RESULTS: Of the 814 participants with possible or probable dementia and measurable CFI, 686 (72.2%) patients were ≥75 years old, 448 (50.8%) were female, and 244 (25.9%) had FAST stage 5-7. The C-statistic of CFI to identify FAST stage 5-7 was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.72-0.83), with a CFI cut-point of 0.280, achieving the maximum sensitivity of 76.9% and specificity of 62.8%. Participants with CFI ≥0.280 had a higher prevalence of disability (19.4% vs 58.3%) and dementia medication use (6.0% vs 22.8%) and higher risk of mortality (10.7% vs 26.3%) and nursing home admission (4.5% vs 10.6%) over 2 years than those with CFI <0.280.

CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that CFI can be useful in identifying moderate-to-severe dementia from administrative claims among older adults with dementia.

PMID:37428879 | DOI:10.1093/gerona/glad166

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CloMet: A Novel Open-Source and Modular Software Platform That Connects Established Metabolomics Repositories and Data Analysis Resources

J Proteome Res. 2023 Jul 10. doi: 10.1021/acs.jproteome.2c00602. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The field of metabolomics has witnessed the development of hundreds of computational tools, but only a few have become cornerstones of this field. While MetaboLights and Metabolomics Workbench are two well-established data repositories for metabolomics data sets, Workflows4Metabolomics and MetaboAnalyst are two well-established web-based data analysis platforms for metabolomics. Yet, the raw data stored in the aforementioned repositories lack standardization in terms of the file system format used to store the associated acquisition files. Consequently, it is not straightforward to reuse available data sets as input data in the above-mentioned data analysis resources, especially for non-expert users. This paper presents CloMet, a novel open-source modular software platform that contributes to standardization, reusability, and reproducibility in the metabolomics field. CloMet, which is available through a Docker file, converts raw and NMR-based metabolomics data from MetaboLights and Metabolomics Workbench to a file format that can be used directly either in MetaboAnalyst or in Workflows4Metabolomics. We validated both CloMet and the output data using data sets from these repositories. Overall, CloMet fills the gap between well-established data repositories and web-based statistical platforms and contributes to the consolidation of a data-driven perspective of the metabolomics field by leveraging and connecting existing data and resources.

PMID:37428859 | DOI:10.1021/acs.jproteome.2c00602

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Evaluation of Small Molecules in Blank EDTA Plasma Tubes and Optimization of Metabolomic Workflow for Biomarker Studies Using Plasma Samples

Anal Chem. 2023 Jul 10. doi: 10.1021/acs.analchem.3c01864. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

As the first step of metabolomic analysis in biomarker identification studies, various types of blood collection tubes are used in clinical practice. However, little attention is paid to potential contamination caused by the blank tube itself. Here, we evaluated small molecules in blank EDTA plasma tubes through LC-MS-based untargeted metabolomic analysis and identified small molecules with markedly varied levels among different production batches or specifications. Our data demonstrate possible contamination and data interference caused by blank EDTA plasma tubes when employing large clinical cohorts for biomarker identification. Therefore, we propose a workflow of filtering metabolites in blank tubes prior to statistical analysis to improve the fidelity of biomarker identification.

PMID:37428854 | DOI:10.1021/acs.analchem.3c01864

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The species distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of Nocardia species in China: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2023 Jul 10;17(7):e0011432. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011432. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Nocardia species can cause local or disseminated infection. Prompt diagnosis and appropriate treatment of nocardiosis are required, because it can cause significant morbidity and mortality. Knowledge of local species distribution and susceptibility patterns is important to appropriate empiric therapy. However, knowledge on the epidemiology and antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of clinical Nocardia species remains limited in China.

METHODS: The data of isolation of Nocardia species were collected from databases such as Pubmed, Web of Science, Embase as well as Chinese databases (CNKI, Wanfang and VIP). Meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.3 software. Random effect models were used and tested with Cochran’s Q and I2 statistics taking into account the possibility of heterogeneity between studies.

RESULTS: In total, 791 Nocardia isolates were identified to 19 species levels among all the recruited studies. The most common species were N. farcinica (29.1%, 230/791), followed by N. cyriacigeorgica (25.3%, 200/791), N. brasiliensis (11.8%, 93/791) and N. otitidiscaviarum (7.8%, 62/791). N. farcinica and N. cyriacigeorgica are widely distributed, N. brasiliensis mainly prevalent in the Southern, N. otitidiscaviarum mainly distributed in the east coastal provinces of China. Totally, 70.4% (223/317) Nocardia were cultured from respiratory tract specimens, 16.4% (52/317) from extra-pulmonary specimens, and 13.3% (42/317) from disseminated infection. The proportion of susceptible isolates as follows: linezolid 99.5% (197/198), amikacin 96.0% (190/198), trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole 92.9% (184/198), imipenem 64.7% (128/198). Susceptibility varied by species of Nocardia.

CONCLUSIONS: N. farcinica and N. cyriacigeorgica are the most frequently isolated species, which are widely distributed in China. Pulmonary nocardiosis is the most common type of infection. Trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole can still be the preferred agent for initial Nocardia infection therapy due to the low resistance rate, linezolid and amikacin could be an alternative to treat nocardiosis or a choice in a combination regimen.

PMID:37428800 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011432

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Evaluation of first trimester maternal serum inhibin-A for preeclampsia screening

PLoS One. 2023 Jul 10;18(7):e0288289. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288289. eCollection 2023.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: International professional organizations recommend aspirin prophylaxis to women screened high risk for preterm preeclampsia (PE) in the first trimester. The UK Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) screening test for preterm PE using mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UTPI) and placental growth factor (PlGF) was demonstrated to have lower detection rate (DR) in Asian population studies. Additional biomarkers are therefore needed in Asian women to improve screening DRs as a significant proportion of women with preterm and term PE are currently not identified.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate maternal serum inhibin-A at 11-13 weeks as an alternative to PlGF or as an additional biomarker within the FMF screening test for preterm PE.

STUDY DESIGN: This is a nested case-control study using pregnancies initially screened at 11-13 weeks for preterm PE using the FMF triple test in a non-intervention study conducted between December 2016 and June 2018. Inhibin-A levels were retrospectively measured in 1,792 singleton pregnancies, 112 (1.7%) with PE matched for time of initial screening with 1,680 unaffected pregnancies. Inhibin-A levels were transformed to multiple of the expected median (MoM). The distribution of log10 inhibin-A MoM in PE and unaffected pregnancies and the association between log10 inhibin-A MoM and gestational age (GA) at delivery in PE were assessed. The screening performance determined by area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and detection rates (DRs) at a 10% fixed false positive rate (FPR), for preterm and term PE was determined. All risks for preterm and term PE were based on the FMF competing risk model and Bayes theorem. Differences in AUC (ΔAUC) between different biomarker combinations were compared using the Delong test. McNemar’s test was used to assess the off-diagonal change in screening performance at a fixed 10% FPR after adding inhibin-A or replacing PlGF in the preterm PE adjusted risk estimation model.

RESULTS: Inhibin-A levels in unaffected pregnancies were significantly dependent on GA, maternal age and weight and were lower in parous women with no previous history of PE. Mean log10 inhibin-A MoM in any-onset PE (p<0.001), preterm (p<0.001) and term PE (p = 0.015) pregnancies were all significantly higher than that of unaffected pregnancies. Log10 inhibin-A MoM was inversely but not significantly correlated (p = 0.165) with GA at delivery in PE pregnancies. Replacing PlGF with inhibin-A in the FMF triple test reduced AUC and DR from 0.859 and 64.86% to 0.837 and 54.05%, the ΔAUC was not statistically significant. AUC and DR when adding inhibin-A to the FMF triple test were 0.814, 54.05% and the -0.045 reduction in AUC was statistically significant (p = 0.001). At a fixed 10% FPR, replacing PlGF with inhibin-A identified 1 (2.7%) additional pregnancy but missed 5 (13.5%) pregnancies which subsequently developed preterm PE identified by the FMF triple test. Adding inhibin-A missed 4 (10.8%) pregnancies and did not identify any additional pregnancies with preterm PE.

CONCLUSION: Replacing PlGF by inhibin-A or adding inhibin-A as an additional biomarker in and to the FMF triple screening test for preterm PE does not improve screening performance and will fail to identify pregnancies that are currently identified by the FMF triple test.

PMID:37428792 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0288289

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A new surgical tape with a mesh designed to prevent skin tears and reduce pain during tape removal

PLoS One. 2023 Jul 10;18(7):e0288304. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288304. eCollection 2023.

ABSTRACT

We devised a surgical tape that prevents skin tears while maintaining adhesive strength. Under the assumption that microscopic damage to the skin is reflected in pain felt on the skin, we statistically analyzed skin pain when the tape was peeled off to show the skin protection effect of the mesh on the new tape. This tape has a three-layer structure consisting of a tape substrate, adhesive, and mesh. When the tape is applied to the skin, a mesh is located between the adhesive and the skin. The adhesive contacts the skin through the mesh holes and fixes the substrate to the skin; it does not come into contact with the skin at the mesh body; therefore, the adhesive-skin contact area is reduced. In this experiment, we used surgical tape with and without mesh. At 8 hours after the application of each tape to the forearm of five adult males, it was removed. All tapes were peeled off while maintaining an angle of approximately 120° between the skin and tape substrate. For the tape with mesh, the tape substrate was peeled off in two ways: peeling off the substrate together with the mesh and peeling off the substrate, leaving the mesh on the skin. A perception and pain quantification analyzer (Pain Vision™) was used to quantify pain. The data were compared and examined statistically (Friedman’s test and Wilcoxon’s coded rank test). The least pain was experienced while peeling off the tape substrate, leaving the mesh on the skin. There was a significant difference in pain levels among the three tape removal methods. There was also a significant difference between the two peeling methods in the experimental group. The skin protection effect of the mesh reduced pain when the surgical tape was removed.

PMID:37428790 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0288304