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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Australian vaccine preventable disease epidemiological review series: diphtheria 1999-2019

Commun Dis Intell (2018). 2022 Jul 21;46. doi: 10.33321/cdi.2022.46.42.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Diphtheria is rare in Australia, but an increasing number of cases have been notified in recent years. Alongside notifications from 1999 to 2019, we analysed other relevant national data sources to evaluate trends over the past two decades.

METHODS: Diphtheria notifications (National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System [NNDSS]), hospitalisations (National Hospital Morbidity Database [NHMD]) and deaths (Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Coordinating Registry) were separately analysed by site of infection, age group, sex, state/territory, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status, and vaccination status.

RESULTS: During the study period, eight (0.002 per 100,000 population per year) cases of respiratory diphtheria and 38 (0.008 per 100,000 population per year) cases of cutaneous diphtheria were recorded in the NNDSS, with 45/46 reported in the nine years since 2011. Corynebacterium diphtheriae accounted for 87% of notified cases, who had a median age of 31.5 years (respiratory diphtheria) and 52.5 years (cutaneous diphtheria); no respiratory diphtheria was notified in those under 15 years of age. A majority of the cutaneous diphtheria cases (27/38; 71%) were acquired overseas, as were 3/8 (38%) of the respiratory diphtheria cases. Rates of both presentation types were higher in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (respiratory: 0.007 per 100,000 population per year; cutaneous: 0.021 per 100,000 population per year) than were rates in the overall population. Queensland had the highest rate of notified respiratory cases (0.007 per 100,000 population per year), and the Northern Territory the highest rate of cutaneous notifications (0.043 per 100,000 population per year). There were 29 hospitalisations with a principal-diagnosis diphtheria code in the NHMD between 2002 and 2018, of which eight were designated as respiratory (0.002 per 100,000 population per year), eight as cutaneous (0.002 per 100,000 population per year), and 13 with an unknown site of infection. Among notified cases, two deaths were reported in unvaccinated people in Queensland.

CONCLUSIONS: Although diphtheria remains rare in Australia, 45 cases were notified in the years 2011-2019, compared with one case between 1999 and 2010. Robust surveillance remains important to detect all cases. High immunity will need to be maintained across all age groups to prevent outbreaks, and travel and adult booster doses should be encouraged.

PMID:35860872 | DOI:10.33321/cdi.2022.46.42

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Malaria serosurvey among acute febrile patients come for health care seeking at the high malaria-endemic setting of North West Ethiopia

SAGE Open Med. 2022 Jul 16;10:20503121221111709. doi: 10.1177/20503121221111709. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess malaria seroprevalence among acute febrile illness cases who come for health care seeking in the high malaria-endemic setting of North West Ethiopia.

METHODS: Institutional-based descriptive serosurvey of malaria infections was employed among 18,386 febrile patients from September 2020 to August 2021. Data were entered using Epi Data version 4.2 and exported to STATA (SE) R-14 version statistical software for further analysis. Bi-variable and multivariable regression analyses were conducted to identify malaria infection. Finally, variables with P-value less than 0.05 were considered significant predictors for malaria infection.

RESULTS: The mean (±standard deviation) age of participants was 48.6 (±18.4) years. The overall seroprevalence of malaria infection was estimated as 27.8% (95% confidence interval = 27.2; 28.6, standard error = 0.003). Malaria infection was significantly associated with participants being female (adjusted odds ratio = 2.9; 95% confidence interval = 1.8; 3.7, P = 0.01), age 5-29 years (adjusted odds ratio = 2.2; 95% confidence interval = 1.7; 2.8, P = 0.02), rural (adjusted odds ratio = 3.9; 95% confidence interval = 1.9; 4.4, P = 0.001), and Hgb ⩽11 mg/dL (adjusted odds ratio = 3.4; 95% confidence interval = 1.9; 5.86, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION: Nearly every three to ten acute febrile cases were positive for confirmed malaria infection. The risk of malaria infection was significantly associated with respondents being female, aged 5-29 years, rural, and levels of hemoglobin were significantly associated with malaria infection.

PMID:35860811 | PMC:PMC9290101 | DOI:10.1177/20503121221111709

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Difference in cochlear length between male and female patients

Cochlear Implants Int. 2022 Jul 20:1-6. doi: 10.1080/14670100.2022.2101534. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Objective: To compare cochlear duct length (CDL) between male and female patients by evaluating the diameter of the basal turn (distance A) on CT scans.Method: All temporal bone CT scans performed between 2014 and 2020 were reviewed in our medical center. Using multiplanar reconstructions, the length A, which is the greatest distance of the basal turn was measured on both sides. We performed an analysis of variance considering two factors: sex and side. Two different physicians carried out the measurements, an otolaryngologist and a neuroradiologist. The patients who had several CT scans allowed us to evaluate the reliability of our procedure.Results: Among the 888 CT scans reviewed, 8 were excluded because of cochlear malformations. The inter-sex difference of length A was found to be 0.29 millimeters(mm) 95% IC [0.26-0.34] and was longer in the male group (p < 0.0001). Using Alexiades’ equation, we found that CDL was 34.5mm [34.37-34.61] in the male group and 33.3mm [33.13-33.38] in the female group. When one side was compared to the other, there was no significant difference (p = 0.226). An intra-class correlation found a good absolute agreement between the two screeners of 0.79.Conclusion: Males have a statistically significant longer CDL than females.

PMID:35860840 | DOI:10.1080/14670100.2022.2101534

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Oral Hygiene Habits and Use of Fluoride in Developmental Age: Role of Parents and Impact on their Children

Biomed Res Int. 2022 Jul 11;2022:6779165. doi: 10.1155/2022/6779165. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In healthcare, the need to pay more attention to the achievement of two objectives within the society arises: health promotion and prevention in terms of nutrition, good education, sport, and health education. Scientific evidence shows that adequate health standards must be learned since childhood through the help of parents and appropriate school projects. Parental intervention must be appropriate to support the responsibility of their children’s health. In oral health, it has been established for many years that there is a correlation between parental behaviors and lifestyles and children’s attitude. The aim of this study is to verify the close relation between behaviors, habits, lifestyles, and the knowledge of parents about their oral health and, consequently, their focus and care for their own children’s oral health. Furthermore, the awareness of parents about the importance and use of fluorine was to be determined.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study lasted 15 months and was conducted from April 2018 to July 2019: an anonymous 29-question questionnaire was administered to all parents who accompanied their children (aged between 3 and 12 years) going under treatment in the Pediatric Dentistry Unit of the University Hospital Policlinico Umberto I, Rome. Anamnestic data, sociodemographic context (e.g., educational level and occupation), oral health habits, and prevention of parents and children and fluoride knowledge were investigated. The study received ethical approval. 204 questionnaires were collected. The data gathered were recorded with a specifically designed computer program and collected and analyzed using a Microsoft Excel 10 database. Data were evaluated using standard statistical analysis software; descriptive statistics including mean ± SD values and percentage were calculated for each variable. The relationship between the age of parents, between mother or father and the parents’ degree of education levels, and the knowledge for their own children’s oral health was explored using the chi-square test of homogeneity and Fisher’s exact test (P value of < 0.05 considered as statistically significant).

RESULTS: From the acquired data, it is possible to deduce that the major respondents were mothers aged from 36 to 45, while only a small part were fathers aged above 45 years. Questions related to parents’ oral hygiene habits were included in the questionnaire, and from the sample taken into consideration, it emerges that 64.7% of the respondents (67.1% mothers and 57.7% fathers) periodically attend a dental office for a checkup, 20.9% tend to postpone the treatment, and 15.2% go there just for emergency. Some of the questions showed that 80% of the interviewed subjects use fluoride toothpaste for their child’s oral hygiene.

CONCLUSION: Prevention in childhood, in addition to being synonymous with monitoring the oral health of the child, means first of all to pay attention to parents who are the main behavioral reference. It emerged that there is no adequate knowledge about fluorine, especially when the subjects have a low educational level. A role of fundamental importance for the diffusion of adequate concepts in the field of oral hygiene is covered, according to the data received from the study carried out, by the dentist and dental hygienist.

PMID:35860800 | PMC:PMC9293534 | DOI:10.1155/2022/6779165

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Associations of polysocial risk score, lifestyle and genetic factors with incident type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study

Diabetologia. 2022 Jul 21. doi: 10.1007/s00125-022-05761-y. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIM/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to investigate the association between polysocial risk score (PsRS), an estimator of individual-level exposure to cumulative social risks, and incident type 2 diabetes in the UK Biobank study.

METHODS: This study includes 319,832 participants who were free of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in the UK Biobank study. The PsRS was calculated by counting the 12 social determinants of health from three social risk domains (namely socioeconomic status, psychosocial factors, and neighbourhood and living environment) that had a statistically significant association with incident type 2 diabetes after Bonferroni correction. A healthy lifestyle score was calculated using information on smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, diet quality and sleep quality. A genetic risk score was calculated using 403 SNPs that showed significant genome-wide associations with type 2 diabetes in people of European descent. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyse the association between the PsRS and incident type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 8.7 years, 4427 participants were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. After adjustment for major confounders, an intermediate PsRS (4-6) and high PsRS (≥7) was associated with higher risks of developing type 2 diabetes with the HRs being 1.38 (95% CI 1.26, 1.52) and 2.02 (95% CI 1.83, 2.22), respectively, compared with those with a low PsRS (≤3). In addition, an intermediate to high PsRS accounted for approximately 34% (95% CI 29, 39) of new-onset type 2 diabetes cases. A healthy lifestyle slightly, but significantly, mitigated PsRS-related risks of type 2 diabetes (pinteraction=0.030). In addition, the additive interactions between PsRS and genetic predisposition led to 15% (95% CI 13, 17; p<0.001) of new-onset type 2 diabetes cases (pinteraction<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: A higher PsRS was related to increased risks of type 2 diabetes. Adherence to a healthy lifestyle may attenuate elevated diabetes risks due to social vulnerability. Genetic susceptibility and disadvantaged social status may act synergistically, resulting in additional risks for type 2 diabetes.

PMID:35859134 | DOI:10.1007/s00125-022-05761-y

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The fusion-fission optimization (FuFiO) algorithm

Sci Rep. 2022 Jul 20;12(1):12396. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-16498-4.

ABSTRACT

Fusion-Fission Optimization (FuFiO) is proposed as a new metaheuristic algorithm that simulates the tendency of nuclei to increase their binding energy and achieve higher levels of stability. In this algorithm, nuclei are divided into two groups, namely stable and unstable. Each nucleus can interact with other nuclei using three different types of nuclear reactions, including fusion, fission, and β-decay. These reactions establish the stabilization process of unstable nuclei through which they gradually turn into stable nuclei. A set of 120 mathematical benchmark test functions are selected to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm. The results of the FuFiO algorithm and its related non-parametric statistical tests are compared with those of other metaheuristic algorithms to make a valid judgment. Furthermore, as some highly-complicated problems, the test functions of two recent Competitions on Evolutionary Computation, namely CEC-2017 and CEC-2019, are solved and analyzed. The obtained results show that the FuFiO algorithm is superior to the other metaheuristic algorithms in most of the examined cases.

PMID:35859104 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-16498-4

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer

NPJ Breast Cancer. 2022 Jul 20;8(1):87. doi: 10.1038/s41523-022-00452-8.

ABSTRACT

The prognostic performance of PREDICT in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer (EBC) treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies is unclear. Therefore, we investigated its prognostic performance using data extracted from ALTTO, a phase III trial evaluating adjuvant lapatinib ± trastuzumab vs. trastuzumab alone in patients with HER2-positive EBC. Our analysis included 2794 patients. After a median follow-up of 6.0 years (IQR, 5.8-6.7), 182 deaths were observed. Overall, PREDICT underestimated 5-year OS by 6.7% (95% CI, 5.8-7.6): observed 5-year OS was 94.7% vs. predicted 88.0%. The underestimation was consistent across all subgroups, including those according to the type of anti HER2-therapy. The highest absolute differences were observed for patients with hormone receptor negative-disease, nodal involvement, and large tumor size (13.0%, 15.8%, and 15.3%, respectively). AUC under the ROC curve was 73.7% (95% CI 69.7-77.8) in the overall population, ranging between 61.7% and 77.7% across the analyzed subgroups. In conclusion, our analysis showed that PREDICT highly underestimated OS in HER2-positive EBC. Hence, it should be used with caution to give prognostic estimation to HER2-positive EBC patients treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies.

PMID:35859079 | DOI:10.1038/s41523-022-00452-8

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A Hybrid Epidemic Model to Explore Stochasticity in COVID-19 Dynamics

Bull Math Biol. 2022 Jul 20;84(9):91. doi: 10.1007/s11538-022-01030-6.

ABSTRACT

The dynamic nature of the COVID-19 pandemic has demanded a public health response that is constantly evolving due to the novelty of the virus. Many jurisdictions in the USA, Canada, and across the world have adopted social distancing and recommended the use of face masks. Considering these measures, it is prudent to understand the contributions of subpopulations-such as “silent spreaders”-to disease transmission dynamics in order to inform public health strategies in a jurisdiction-dependent manner. Additionally, we and others have shown that demographic and environmental stochasticity in transmission rates can play an important role in shaping disease dynamics. Here, we create a model for the COVID-19 pandemic by including two classes of individuals: silent spreaders, who either never experience a symptomatic phase or remain undetected throughout their disease course; and symptomatic spreaders, who experience symptoms and are detected. We fit the model to real-time COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths to derive the transmission rates, death rates, and other relevant parameters for multiple phases of outbreaks in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We determine the extent to which SilS contributed to BC’s early wave of disease transmission as well as the impact of public health interventions on reducing transmission from both SilS and SymS. To do this, we validate our model against an existing COVID-19 parameterized framework and then fit our model to clinical data to estimate key parameter values for different stages of BC’s disease dynamics. We then use these parameters to construct a hybrid stochastic model that leverages the strengths of both a time-nonhomogeneous discrete process and a stochastic differential equation model. By combining these previously established approaches, we explore the impact of demographic and environmental variability on disease dynamics by simulating various scenarios in which a COVID-19 outbreak is initiated. Our results demonstrate that variability in disease transmission rate impacts the probability and severity of COVID-19 outbreaks differently in high- versus low-transmission scenarios.

PMID:35859080 | DOI:10.1007/s11538-022-01030-6

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

On the mixed Kibria-Lukman estimator for the linear regression model

Sci Rep. 2022 Jul 20;12(1):12430. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-16689-z.

ABSTRACT

This paper considers a linear regression model with stochastic restrictions,we propose a new mixed Kibria-Lukman estimator by combining the mixed estimator and the Kibria-Lukman estimator.This new estimator is a general estimation, including OLS estimator, mixed estimator and Kibria-Lukman estimator as special cases. In addition, we discuss the advantages of the new estimator based on MSEM criterion, and illustrate the theoretical results through examples and simulation analysis.

PMID:35859042 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-16689-z

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The evaluation of the reduction of radiation dose via deep learning-based reconstruction for cadaveric human lung CT images

Sci Rep. 2022 Jul 20;12(1):12422. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-16798-9.

ABSTRACT

To compare the quality of CT images of the lung reconstructed using deep learning-based reconstruction (True Fidelity Image: TFI ™; GE Healthcare) to filtered back projection (FBP), and to determine the minimum tube current-time product in TFI without compromising image quality. Four cadaveric human lungs were scanned on CT at 120 kVp and different tube current-time products (10, 25, 50, 75, 100, and 175 mAs) and reconstructed with TFI and FBP. Two image evaluations were performed by three independent radiologists. In the first experiment, using the same tube current-time product, a side-by-side TFI and FBP comparison was performed. Images were evaluated with regard to noise, streak artifacts, and overall image quality. Overall image quality was evaluated in view of whole image quality. In the second experiment, CT images reconstructed using TFI and FBP with five different tube current-time products were displayed in random order, which were evaluated with reference to the 175 mAs-FBP image. Images were scored with regard to normal structure, abnormal findings, noise, streak artifacts, and overall image quality. Median scores from three radiologists were statistically analyzed. Quantitative evaluation of noise was performed by setting regions of interest (ROIs) in air. In first experiment, overall image quality was improved, and noise was decreased in images of TFI compared to that of FBP for all tube current-time products. In second experiment, scores of all evaluation items except for small vessels in images of 25 mAs-TFI were almost the same as that of 175 mAs-FBP (all p > 0.31). Using TFI instead of FBP, at least 85% radiation dose reduction could be possible without any degradation in the image quality.

PMID:35859015 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-16798-9