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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Interpreting change on the Symbol Digit Modalities Test in people with relapsing multiple sclerosis using the reliable change methodology

Mult Scler. 2021 Oct 6:13524585211049397. doi: 10.1177/13524585211049397. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) is increasingly utilized in clinical trials. A SDMT score change of 4 points is considered clinically important, based on association with employment anchors. Optimal thresholds for statistically reliable SDMT changes, accounting for test reliability and measurement error, are yet to be applied to individual cases.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to derive a statistically reliable marker of individual change on the SDMT.

METHODS: This prospective, case-control study enrolled 166 patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). SDMT scores at baseline, relapse, and 3-month follow-up were compared between relapsing and stable patient groups. Using data from the stable group and three previously published studies, candidate thresholds for reliable decline were calculated and validated against other tests and a clinically meaningful anchor-cognitive relapse.

RESULTS: Candidate thresholds for reliable decline at the 80% confidence level varied between 6 and 11 points. An SDMT change of 8 or more raw score points was deemed to offer the best balance of discriminatory power and external validity for estimating cognitive decline.

CONCLUSION: This study illustrates the feasibility and usefulness of reliable change methodology for identifying statistically meaningful cognitive decline that could be implemented to identify change in individual patients, for both clinical management and clinical trial outcomes.

PMID:34612114 | DOI:10.1177/13524585211049397

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Using 360-degree video for teaching emergency medicine during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic

Ann Med. 2021 Dec;53(1):1520-1530. doi: 10.1080/07853890.2021.1970219.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency medicine (EM) teachers had to employ innovative methods to ensure the continuity of the education process. The purpose of this study was to explore the adequacy of the 360-degree video (video 360) technology in EM education in the context of: (a) students’ attitudes towards the video 360; (b) students’ academic performance in their required examination at the end of the EM course compared to the assessment results of students from the previous academic year.

METHODS: A mixed-method research project enrolled the fourth-year medical students who attended the required EM course during the first semester of the academic year 2020-2021 when all activities with undergraduate students went online and teaching scenarios recorded in the video 360 format were employed. Data collection was two-fold: (a) anonymous questionnaires, complemented with basic YouTube analytics; (b) multiple-choice questionnaires (MCQ) and oral examination, contrasting the results with those in 2019-2020. Data analysis used descriptive statistics and non-parametric methods.

RESULTS: Seventy-nine students (53 females and 26 males) participated in the project and all completed the EM course. Students’ interest in and their acceptance of the video 360 technology were high (total scoring in the upper 20% of the respective scales), with consistently good performance in two parallel, independent, interview-based oral/practical evaluations (Spearman correlation coefficient R = 0.665, p < .001). The majority scored over 90% in the summative MCQ, with higher values compared to their colleagues’ during the previous academic year (with on-site teaching): scoring percentages with mean ± standard deviation of 92.52 ± 4.57 and 76.67 ± 18.77, respectively.

CONCLUSION: Our project showed that the video 360 scenarios were effective in teaching EM. In the long term, employing this accessible and inexpensive educational approach would add value to on-site training by enriching the exposure to a specific ED environment.KEY MESSAGESMedical students valued the 360-degree video scenarios as contributing substantially to their EM knowledge and preparedness.Examination results confirmed the 360-degree video scenarios as viable in EM teaching.The 360-degree video technology would be a sustainable solution for hybrid medical teaching in the long term.

PMID:34612105 | DOI:10.1080/07853890.2021.1970219

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Multiple sclerosis diagnosis: Knowledge gaps and opportunities for educational intervention in neurologists in the United States

Mult Scler. 2021 Oct 6:13524585211048401. doi: 10.1177/13524585211048401. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Few studies have addressed the results of educational efforts concerning proper use of McDonald criteria (MC) revisions outside multiple sclerosis (MS) subspecialty centers. Neurology residents and MS subspecialist neurologists demonstrated knowledge gaps for core elements of the MC in a recent prior study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess comprehension and application of MC core elements by non-MS specialist neurologists in the United States who routinely diagnose MS.

METHODS: Through a cross-sectional study design, a previously developed survey instrument was distributed online.

RESULTS: A total of 222 neurologists completed the study survey. Syndromes atypical for MS were frequently incorrectly considered “typical” MS presentations. Fourteen percent correctly identified definitions of both “periventricular” and “juxtacortical” lesions and 2% correctly applied these terms to 9/9 images. Twenty-four percent correctly identified all four central nervous system (CNS) regions for satisfaction of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) dissemination in space. In two presented cases, 61% and 71% correctly identified dissemination in time (DIT) was not fulfilled, and 85% and 86% subsequently accepted nonspecific historical symptoms without objective evidence for DIT fulfillment.

CONCLUSION: The high rate of knowledge deficiencies and application errors of core elements of the MC demonstrated by participants in this study raise pressing questions concerning adequacy of dissemination and educational efforts upon publication of revisions to MC.

PMID:34612110 | DOI:10.1177/13524585211048401

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution, Road Traffic Noise, and Heart Failure Incidence: The Danish Nurse Cohort

J Am Heart Assoc. 2021 Oct 6:e021436. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.121.021436. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Background We examined the association of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with incident heart failure (HF). Methods And Results Using data on female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort (aged >44 years), we investigated associations between 3-year mean exposures to air pollution and road traffic noise and incident HF using Cox regression models, adjusting for relevant confounders. Incidence of HF was defined as the first hospital contact (inpatient, outpatient, or emergency) between cohort baseline (1993 or 1999) and December 31, 2014, based on the Danish National Patient Register. Annual mean levels of particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm since 1990 and NO2 and road traffic noise since 1970 were estimated at participants’ residences. Of the 22 189 nurses, 484 developed HF. We detected associations with all 3 pollutants, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.36), 1.10 (95% CI, 0.99-1.22), and 1.12 (95% CI, 0.99-1.26) per increase of 5.1 µg/m3 in particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm, 8.6 µg/m3 in NO2, and 9.3 dB in road traffic noise, respectively. We observed an enhanced risk of HF incidence for those exposed to high levels of the 3 pollutants; however, the effect modification of coexposure was not statistically significant. Former smokers and nurses with hypertension showed the strongest associations with particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm (Peffect modification<0.05). Conclusions We found that long-term exposures to air pollution and road traffic noise were independently associated with HF.

PMID:34612059 | DOI:10.1161/JAHA.121.021436

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Temporal trends in self-reported HIV stigma and association with adherence and viral suppression in the African Cohort Study

AIDS Care. 2021 Oct 6:1-8. doi: 10.1080/09540121.2021.1984380. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

HIV stigma is a major barrier to HIV care and treatment among people living with HIV (PLWH). Evidence suggests that expansion in antiretroviral therapy (ART) may reduce stigma. However, there are limited longitudinal studies examining temporal trends in HIV stigma in sub-Saharan Africa in the Undetectable = Untransmittable (U = U) era. We longitudinally assessed temporal trends in self-reported experienced stigma and the association of experienced stigma with ART adherence and viral suppression among PLWH enrolled in the African Cohort Study (AFRICOS). AFRICOS is an ongoing cohort study enrolling PLWH in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Nigeria. As of 1 March 2020, 2937 PLWH enrolled in AFRICOS and had available data. In 2013, 22% of participants reported stigma at the enrollment visit and by 2018 the prevalence decreased to 1% overall and was below 2% for all countries. However, there was not a statistically significant change in stigma prevalence in our longitudinal models. In adjusted models, experiencing stigma was associated with a 0.67 decreased odds of ART Adherence (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.56-0.80) and a 0.64 decreased odds of viral suppression (95% CI: 0.73-0.99). HIV-associated stigma was associated with poor self-reported ART adherence and unsuppressed viral load.

PMID:34612100 | DOI:10.1080/09540121.2021.1984380

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A randomized, feasibility trial of an exercise and nutrition-based rehabilitation programme (ENeRgy) in people with cancer

J Cachexia Sarcopenia Muscle. 2021 Oct 5. doi: 10.1002/jcsm.12806. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Despite rehabilitation being increasingly advocated for people living with incurable cancer, there is limited evidence supporting efficacy or component parts. The progressive decline in function and nutritional in this population would support an approach that targets these factors. This trial aimed to assess the feasibility of an exercise and nutrition based rehabilitation programme in people with incurable cancer.

METHODS: We randomized community dwelling adults with incurable cancer to either a personalized exercise and nutrition based programme (experimental arm) or standard care (control arm) for 8 weeks. Endpoints included feasibility, quality of life, physical activity (step count), and body weight. Qualitative and health economic analyses were also included.

RESULTS: Forty-five patients were recruited (23 experimental arm, 22 control arm). There were 26 men (58%), and the median age was 78 years (IQR 69-84). At baseline, the median BMI was 26 kg/m2 (IQR: 22-29), and median weight loss in the previous 6 months was 5% (IQR: -12% to 0%). Adherence to the experimental arm was >80% in 16/21 (76%) patients. There was no statistically significant difference in the following between trial arms: step count – median % change from baseline to endpoint, per trial arm (experimental -18.5% [IQR: -61 to 65], control 5% [IQR: -32 to 50], P = 0.548); weight – median % change from baseline to endpoint, per trial arm (experimental 1%[IQR: -3 to 3], control -0.5% [IQR: -3 to 1], P = 0.184); overall quality of life – median % change from baseline to endpoint, per trial arm (experimental 0% [IQR: -20 to 19], control 0% [IQR: -23 to 33], P = 0.846). Qualitative findings observed themes of capability, opportunity, and motivation amongst patients in the experimental arm. The mean incremental cost of the experimental arm versus control was £-319.51 [CI -7593.53 to 6581.91], suggesting the experimental arm was less costly.

CONCLUSIONS: An exercise and nutritional rehabilitation intervention is feasible and has potential benefits for people with incurable cancer. A larger trial is now warranted to test the efficacy of this approach.

PMID:34612012 | DOI:10.1002/jcsm.12806

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Validation of the 4-Item PRECISE-DAPT Score: A SWEDEHEART Study

J Am Heart Assoc. 2021 Oct 6:e020974. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.121.020974. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Background The Predicting Bleeding Complications in Patients Undergoing Stent Implantation and Subsequent Dual Antiplatelet Therapy (PRECISE-DAPT) score has been shown to predict out-of-hospital major bleeding after myocardial infarction treated with percutaneous coronary intervention and dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT). However, large validation studies have been scarce and the discriminative ability for patients with a preexisting bleeding risk factor (elderly, underweight, women, anemia, kidney dysfunction, or cancer) in a real-world setting is unknown. Methods and Results Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for myocardial infarction between 2008 and 2017 were included from the SWEDEHEART (Swedish Web System for Enhancement of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies) registry (n=66 295). The predictive value of the PRECISE-DAPT score for rehospitalization with major bleeding during dual antiplatelet therapy was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analyses. A high PRECISE-DAPT score (≥25; n=13 894) was associated with increased risk of major bleeding (3.9% versus 1.8%; hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 2.0-2.5; P<0.001) compared with a non-high score (<25; n=52 401). The score demonstrated a c-statistic of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.63-0.66). The discriminative ability of the score to further stratify bleeding risk in patients with preexisting bleeding risk factors was poor, especially in patients who are elderly (c-statistic=0.57; 95% CI, 0.55-0.60) or underweight (c-statistic=0.56; 95% CI, 0.51-0.61), for whom a non-high PRECISE-DAPT score was associated with similar bleeding risk as a high PRECISE-DAPT score in the general myocardial infarction population. Conclusions In this nationwide population-based study, the PRECISE-DAPT score performed moderately in the general myocardial infarction population and poorly in patients with preexisting bleeding risk factors, where its usefulness seems limited.

PMID:34612051 | DOI:10.1161/JAHA.121.020974

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A single-institution retrospective study of causes of prolonged prothrombin time and activated partial thromboplastin time in the outpatient setting

Int J Lab Hematol. 2021 Oct 5. doi: 10.1111/ijlh.13727. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: An algorithmic approach, termed the prolonged clot time profile (PROCT), consisting of initial screening with prothrombin time (PT) and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), reflexive mixing studies if indicated, and follow-up assays depending on initial testing results, offers an efficient approach to delineate the etiology of a prolonged PT/aPTT. Herein, we present the outcomes of the PROCT in the outpatient setting.

METHODS: In this retrospective study, we reviewed medical records of consecutive outpatients who had prolonged PT and/or aPTT noted in the routine coagulation laboratory and who had PROCT ordered in our institutional Special Coagulation Laboratory between 2010 and 2017.

RESULTS: One hundred and six patients, median age 55 years (IQR 30-67), met our study criteria. Twenty-nine patients had normal PT/aPTT, while 77 had persistent abnormalities and underwent reflexive testing. A prolonged PT, aPTT, or PT and aPTT was noted in 27 (35%), 27 (35%), and 23 (30%) respectively. Forty-nine (64%) had an acquired condition, 17 (22%) had a congenital condition, 7 (9%) had unclear etiology, and 4 (5%) were the result of laboratory artifact. The most common known cause of an isolated prolonged PT in our study was vitamin K deficiency in 8 (10%), the most common cause of an isolated prolonged aPTT was lupus anticoagulant in 4 (5%), and the most common cause of prolonged PT and aPTT was liver disease in 11 (14%).

CONCLUSION: Prolonged PT/aPTT have a wide range of causes, including artifactual prolongation or abnormalities in secondary hemostasis due to both inherited and acquired conditions.

PMID:34612006 | DOI:10.1111/ijlh.13727

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe

Nat Commun. 2021 Oct 5;12(1):5820. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4.

ABSTRACT

European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe’s second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model and collecting the largest dataset of NPI implementation dates across Europe. Business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, but reduced it less than they did in the first wave. This difference is likely due to organisational safety measures and individual protective behaviours-such as distancing-which made various areas of public life safer and thereby reduced the effect of closing them. Specifically, we find smaller effects for closing educational institutions, suggesting that stringent safety measures made schools safer compared to the first wave. Second-wave estimates outperform previous estimates at predicting transmission in Europe’s third wave.

PMID:34611158 | DOI:10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4

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Scientific prizes and the extraordinary growth of scientific topics

Nat Commun. 2021 Oct 5;12(1):5619. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25712-2.

ABSTRACT

Fast growing scientific topics have famously been key harbingers of the new frontiers of science, yet, large-scale analyses of their genesis and impact are rare. We investigated one possible factor connected with a topic’s extraordinary growth: scientific prizes. Our longitudinal analysis of nearly all recognized prizes worldwide and over 11,000 scientific topics from 19 disciplines indicates that topics associated with a scientific prize experience extraordinary growth in productivity, impact, and new entrants. Relative to matched non-prizewinning topics, prizewinning topics produce 40% more papers and 33% more citations, retain 55% more scientists, and gain 37 and 47% more new entrants and star scientists, respectively, in the first five-to-ten years after the prize. Funding do not account for a prizewinning topic’s growth. Rather, growth is positively related to the degree to which the prize is discipline-specific, conferred for recent research, or has prize money. These findings reveal new dynamics behind scientific innovation and investment.

PMID:34611161 | DOI:10.1038/s41467-021-25712-2