Category: Statistics

Bol Med Hosp Infant Mex. 2024;81(3):170-175. doi: 10.24875/BMHIM.23000048.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The administration of colostrum through its absorption at the oropharyngeal level stimulates the mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue, providing a local immunological protection barrier. The study aimed to investigate the association of oropharyngeal colostrum administration with the reduction of inflammatory indices.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was an observational, ambispective, analytical study of newborns < 32 weeks of gestation at risk of sepsis. Oropharyngeal colostrum was administered at 0.2 mL every 4 h for 5 days. Inflammatory indices were analyzed. Statistical analysis included frequencies, percentages, mean and Standard deviation, contingency coefficient, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the distribution curve of the numerical data.

RESULTS: There were 50 patients, 33 (66%) female and 17 (34%) male, with a median gestational age of 30-31 weeks (95% confidence interval [CI]). Nineteen patients had sepsis. A lower positivity rate in C-reactive protein was found, with a median of 0.5-0.6 (95% CI) at 5 days of colostrum administration versus 0.5-1.1 (95% CI) as the initial C-reactive protein. Analysis with χ² yielded a p = 0.13, and the contingency coefficient showed a p = 0.196, indicating an association.

CONCLUSION: Oropharyngeal colostrum administration was associated with a lower C-reactive protein positivity rate and clinical improvement in premature newborns at risk of sepsis.

PMID:38941632 | DOI:10.24875/BMHIM.23000048

JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2024 Jun 28;10:e52773. doi: 10.2196/52773.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Suicide is a significant public health issue. Many risk prediction tools have been developed to estimate an individual’s risk of suicide. Risk prediction models can go beyond individual risk assessment; one important application of risk prediction models is population health planning. Suicide is a result of the interaction among the risk and protective factors at the individual, health care system, and community levels. Thus, policy and decision makers can play an important role in suicide prevention. However, few prediction models for the population risk of suicide have been developed.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop and validate prediction models for the population risk of suicide using health administrative data, considering individual-, health system-, and community-level predictors.

METHODS: We used a case-control study design to develop sex-specific risk prediction models for suicide, using the health administrative data in Quebec, Canada. The training data included all suicide cases (n=8899) that occurred from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2010. The control group was a 1% random sample of living individuals in each year between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2010 (n=645,590). Logistic regression was used to develop the prediction models based on individual-, health care system-, and community-level predictors. The developed model was converted into synthetic estimation models, which concerted the individual-level predictors into community-level predictors. The synthetic estimation models were directly applied to the validation data from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2019. We assessed the performance of the synthetic estimation models with four indicators: the agreement between predicted and observed proportions of suicide, mean average error, root mean square error, and the proportion of correctly identified high-risk regions.

RESULTS: The sex-specific models based on individual data had good discrimination (male model: C=0.79; female model: C=0.85) and calibration (Brier score for male model 0.01; Brier score for female model 0.005). With the regression-based synthetic models applied in the validation data, the absolute differences between the synthetic risk estimates and observed suicide risk ranged from 0% to 0.001%. The root mean square errors were under 0.2. The synthetic estimation model for males correctly predicted 4 of 5 high-risk regions in 8 years, and the model for females correctly predicted 4 of 5 high-risk regions in 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS: Using linked health administrative databases, this study demonstrated the feasibility and the validity of developing prediction models for the population risk of suicide, incorporating individual-, health system-, and community-level variables. Synthetic estimation models built on routinely collected health administrative data can accurately predict the population risk of suicide. This effort can be enhanced by timely access to other critical information at the population level.

PMID:38941610 | DOI:10.2196/52773

JMIR Mhealth Uhealth. 2024 Jun 28;12:e57863. doi: 10.2196/57863.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is one of the most important cardiovascular disease risk factors and affects >100 million American adults. Hypertension-related health inequities are abundant in Black communities as Black individuals are more likely to use the emergency department (ED) for chronic disease-related ambulatory care, which is strongly linked to lower blood pressure (BP) control, diminished awareness of hypertension, and adverse cardiovascular events. To reduce hypertension-related health disparities, we developed MI-BP, a culturally tailored multibehavior mobile health intervention that targeted behaviors of BP self-monitoring, physical activity, sodium intake, and medication adherence in Black individuals with uncontrolled hypertension recruited from ED and community-based settings.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the effect of MI-BP on BP as well as secondary outcomes of physical activity, sodium intake, medication adherence, and BP control compared to enhanced usual care control at 1-year follow-up.

METHODS: We conducted a 1-year, 2-group randomized controlled trial of the MI-BP intervention compared to an enhanced usual care control group where participants aged 25 to 70 years received a BP cuff and hypertension-related educational materials. Participants were recruited from EDs and other community-based settings in Detroit, Michigan, where they were screened for initial eligibility and enrolled. Baseline data collection and randomization occurred approximately 2 and 4 weeks after enrollment to ensure that participants had uncontrolled hypertension and were willing to take part. Data collection visits occurred at 13, 26, 39, and 52 weeks. Outcomes of interest included BP (primary outcome) and physical activity, sodium intake, medication adherence, and BP control (secondary outcomes).

RESULTS: We obtained consent from and enrolled 869 participants in this study yet ultimately randomized 162 (18.6%) participants. At 1 year, compared to the baseline, both groups showed significant decreases in systolic BP (MI-BP group: 22.5 mm Hg decrease in average systolic BP and P<.001; control group: 24.1 mm Hg decrease and P<.001) adjusted for age and sex, with no significant differences between the groups (time-by-arm interaction: P=.99). Similar patterns where improvements were noted in both groups yet no differences were found between the groups were observed for diastolic BP, physical activity, sodium intake, medication adherence, and BP control. Large dropout rates were observed in both groups (approximately 60%).

CONCLUSIONS: Overall, participants randomized to both the enhanced usual care control and MI-BP conditions experienced significant improvements in BP and other outcomes; however, differences between groups were not detected, speaking to the general benefit of proactive outreach and engagement focused on cardiometabolic risk reduction in urban-dwelling, low-socioeconomic-status Black populations. High dropout rates were found and are likely to be expected when working with similar populations. Future work is needed to better understand engagement with mobile health interventions, particularly in this population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02955537; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02955537.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.2196/12601.

PMID:38941601 | DOI:10.2196/57863

J Med Internet Res. 2024 Jun 28;26:e55302. doi: 10.2196/55302.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous mobile health (mHealth) studies have revealed significant links between depression and circadian rhythm features measured via wearables. However, the comprehensive impact of seasonal variations was not fully considered in these studies, potentially biasing interpretations in real-world settings.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore the associations between depression severity and wearable-measured circadian rhythms while accounting for seasonal impacts.

METHODS: Data were sourced from a large longitudinal mHealth study, wherein participants’ depression severity was assessed biweekly using the 8-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-8), and participants’ behaviors, including sleep, step count, and heart rate (HR), were tracked via Fitbit devices for up to 2 years. We extracted 12 circadian rhythm features from the 14-day Fitbit data preceding each PHQ-8 assessment, including cosinor variables, such as HR peak timing (HR acrophase), and nonparametric features, such as the onset of the most active continuous 10-hour period (M10 onset). To investigate the association between depression severity and circadian rhythms while also assessing the seasonal impacts, we used three nested linear mixed-effects models for each circadian rhythm feature: (1) incorporating the PHQ-8 score as an independent variable, (2) adding seasonality, and (3) adding an interaction term between season and the PHQ-8 score.

RESULTS: Analyzing 10,018 PHQ-8 records alongside Fitbit data from 543 participants (n=414, 76.2% female; median age 48, IQR 32-58 years), we found that after adjusting for seasonal effects, higher PHQ-8 scores were associated with reduced daily steps (β=-93.61, P<.001), increased sleep variability (β=0.96, P<.001), and delayed circadian rhythms (ie, sleep onset: β=0.55, P=.001; sleep offset: β=1.12, P<.001; M10 onset: β=0.73, P=.003; HR acrophase: β=0.71, P=.001). Notably, the negative association with daily steps was more pronounced in spring (β of PHQ-8 × spring = -31.51, P=.002) and summer (β of PHQ-8 × summer = -42.61, P<.001) compared with winter. Additionally, the significant correlation with delayed M10 onset was observed solely in summer (β of PHQ-8 × summer = 1.06, P=.008). Moreover, compared with winter, participants experienced a shorter sleep duration by 16.6 minutes, an increase in daily steps by 394.5, a delay in M10 onset by 20.5 minutes, and a delay in HR peak time by 67.9 minutes during summer.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight significant seasonal influences on human circadian rhythms and their associations with depression, underscoring the importance of considering seasonal variations in mHealth research for real-world applications. This study also indicates the potential of wearable-measured circadian rhythms as digital biomarkers for depression.

PMID:38941600 | DOI:10.2196/55302

Qual Manag Health Care. 2024 Jul-Sep 01;33(3):192-199. doi: 10.1097/QMH.0000000000000460. Epub 2024 Jun 26.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Hospitals and clinicians increasingly are reimbursed based on quality of care through financial incentives tied to value-based purchasing. Patient-centered care, measured through patient experience surveys, is a key component of many quality incentive programs. We hypothesize that operational aspects such as wait times are an important element of emergency department (ED) patient experience. The objectives of this paper are to determine (1) the association between ED wait times and patient experience and (2) whether patient comments show awareness of wait times.

METHODS: This is a cross-sectional observational study from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2020, across 16 EDs within a regional health care system. Patient and operations data were obtained as secondary data through internal sources and merged with primary patient experience data from our data analytics team. Dependent variables are (1) the association between ED wait times in minutes and patient experience ratings and (2) the association between wait times in minutes and patient comments including the term wait (yes/no). Patients rated their “likelihood to recommend (LTR) an ED” on a 0 to 10 scale (categories: “Promoter” = 9-10, “Neutral” = 7-8, or “Detractor” = 0-6). Our aggregate experience rating, or Net Promoter Score (NPS), is calculated by the following formula for each distinct wait time (rounded to the nearest minute): NPS = 100* (# promoters – # detractors)/(# promoters + # neutrals + # detractors). Independent variables for patient age and gender and triage acuity, were included as potential confounders. We performed a mixed-effect multivariate ordinal logistic regression for the rating category as a function of 30 minutes waited. We also performed a logistic regression for the percentage of patients commenting on the wait as a function of 30 minutes waited. Standard errors are adjusted for clustering between the 16 ED sites.

RESULTS: A total of 50 833 unique participants completed an experience survey, representing a response rate of 8.1%. Of these respondents, 28.1% included comments, with 10.9% using the term “wait.” The odds ratio for association of a 30-minute wait with LTR category is 0.83 [0.81, 0.84]. As wait times increase, the odds of commenting on the wait increase by 1.49 [1.46, 1.53]. We show policy-relevant bubble plot visualizations of these two relationships.

CONCLUSIONS: Patients were less likely to give a positive patient experience rating as wait times increased, and this was reflected in their comments. Improving on the factors contributing to ED wait times is essential to meeting health care systems’ quality initiatives.

PMID:38941584 | DOI:10.1097/QMH.0000000000000460

J Clin Oncol. 2024 Jun 28:JCO2302276. doi: 10.1200/JCO.23.02276. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is routinely treated with adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS). The inability to accurately estimate an individual’s risk of local recurrence (LR) and invasive LR using clinicopathologic factors (CPF) contributes to the overtreatment of DCIS. We examined the impact of the 12-gene DCIS Score (DS) and the 21-gene Recurrence Score (RS) on the accuracy of predicting LR and invasive LR.

METHODS: A population-based cohort diagnosed with pure DCIS treated with BCS ± RT from 1994 to 2003 was used. All patients had expert pathology review and assessment of the DS and RS. Predictive models (CPF alone, DS + CPF, and RS + CPF) were developed using multivariable Cox regression analyses to predict 10-year LR and invasive LR risks. Models were evaluated on the basis of c-statistic, -2log likelihood estimate (-2LLE), and Akaike information criterion. Calibration was performed using bootstrap resamples, with replacement.

RESULTS: The cohort includes 1,226 women treated with BCS; 712 received RT. 194 women (15.8%) experienced ipsilateral LR as a first event; 112 were invasive. Models including the DS or RS performed better in predicting the 10-year risk of LR compared with models on the basis of CPF alone with excellent calibration. The two molecular-based models also performed better in predicting invasive LR compared with the CPF model but the model incorporating the RS did not perform better in the prediction of invasive LR compared with the DS-based model.

CONCLUSION: Models incorporating the DS or RS more accurately predicted the 10-year risk of LR and invasive LR after BCS compared with models on the basis of CPF alone. Inclusion of the RS, compared with DS, did not improve the prediction of the 10-year risk of invasive LR.

PMID:38941575 | DOI:10.1200/JCO.23.02276

JMIR Form Res. 2024 Jun 24. doi: 10.2196/58263. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Loneliness, depression, and anxiety are highly prevalent among US adults, especially among socio-demographically vulnerable populations. Virtual peer support is a potentially cost-effective, scalable intervention. This study prospectively evaluated the effects of digitally-enabled peer support on mental health outcomes and estimated medical cost reductions among 243 vulnerable adults with symptomatic depression, anxiety, and significant loneliness. We found that participants from diverse race/ethnicities, genders and socio-economic groups engaged with peer support and experienced statistically and clinically significant improvements in their mental health and an estimated annual medical costs reduction of $1,025 per participant. We believe this work will inform ongoing discussions related to the use of digitally-enabled peer support to address the mental health crisis in the US.

PMID:38941568 | DOI:10.2196/58263

Blood Adv. 2024 Jun 28:bloodadvances.2024012858. doi: 10.1182/bloodadvances.2024012858. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

While intensive induction chemotherapy (IC) remains the standard of care for younger patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), data from older patients shows that hypomethylating agents + venetoclax (HMA/VEN) can lead to durable remissions among patients with NPM1 mutations. Whether IC or HMA/VEN is superior in patients ≥60 years-old with NPM1-mutant AML is unknown. To compare IC and HMA/VEN, we performed an international, multicenter retrospective cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed, NPM1-mutant AML.We included 221 patients (147 IC, 74 HMA/VEN) with previously untreated NPM1-mutant AML. Composite complete remission (cCR; defined as CR + CR with incomplete count recovery [CRi]) rate was similar for IC and HMA/VEN (cCR: 85% vs. 74%; p=0.067). While OS was favorable with IC in unselected patients compared to HMA/VEN (24-month OS 59% [95% CI: 52-69%] vs. 38% [95% CI 27-55%]; p=0.013), it was not statistically different among patients 60-75 years-old (60% [95% CI 52-70%] vs. 44% [95% CI 29-66%]; p=0.069) and patients who received an allogeneic stem cell transplant (70% [95% CI: 58-85%] vs. 66% [95% CI: 44-100%]; p=0.56). Subgroup analyses suggested that patients with normal cytogenetics (24-month OS with IC 65% [95% 56-74%] vs. 40% [95% CI: 26-60%] with HMA/VEN; p=0.009) and without FLT3-ITD mutations might benefit from IC compared with HMA/VEN (24-month OS: 68% [95% CI: 59-79%] vs. 43% [95% CI: 29-63%]; p=0.008). In multivariable analysis, OS was not statistically different for patients treated with IC and HMA/VEN (hazard ratio for death HMA/VEN vs. IC: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.40-1.27; p=0.25).

PMID:38941537 | DOI:10.1182/bloodadvances.2024012858

Annu Rev Phys Chem. 2024 Jun;75(1):21-45. doi: 10.1146/annurev-physchem-062123-010821.

ABSTRACT

Low-resolution coarse-grained (CG) models provide remarkable computational and conceptual advantages for simulating soft materials. In principle, bottom-up CG models can reproduce all structural and thermodynamic properties of atomically detailed models that can be observed at the resolution of the CG model. This review discusses recent progress in developing theory and computational methods for achieving this promise. We first briefly review variational approaches for parameterizing interaction potentials and their relationship to machine learning methods. We then discuss recent approaches for simultaneously improving both the transferability and thermodynamic properties of bottom-up models by rigorously addressing the density and temperature dependence of these potentials. We also briefly discuss exciting progress in modeling high-resolution observables with low-resolution CG models. More generally, we highlight the essential role of the bottom-up framework not only for fundamentally understanding the limitations of prior CG models but also for developing robust computational methods that resolve these limitations in practice.

PMID:38941523 | DOI:10.1146/annurev-physchem-062123-010821

Cancer. 2024 Jun 28. doi: 10.1002/cncr.35459. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Medical record abstraction (MRA) and self-report questionnaires are two methods frequently used to ascertain cancer treatment information. Prior studies have shown excellent agreement between MRA and self-report, but it is unknown how a recall window longer than 3 years may affect this agreement.

METHODS: The Women’s Environmental Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology (WECARE) Study is a multicenter, population-based case-control study of controls with unilateral breast cancer individually matched to cases with contralateral breast cancer. Participants who were diagnosed with a first primary breast cancer from 1985 to 2008 before the age of 55 years completed a questionnaire that included questions on treatment. First primary breast cancer treatment information was abstracted from the medical record from radiation oncology clinic notes for radiation treatment and from systemic adjuvant treatment reports for hormone therapy and chemotherapy. Agreement between MRA and self-reported treatment was assessed with the kappa statistic and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS: A total of 2808 participants with MRA and self-reported chemotherapy treatment information, 2733 participants with MRA and self-reported hormone therapy information, and 2905 participants with MRA and self-reported radiation treatment information were identified. The median recall window was 12.5 years (range, 2.8-22.2 years). MRA and self-reported treatment agreement was excellent across treatment modalities (kappa_chemo, 98.5; 95% CI, 97.9-99.2; kappa_horm, 87.7; 95% CI, 85.9-89.5; kappa_rad, 97.9; 95% CI, 97.0-98.7). There was no heterogeneity across recall windows (p_chemo = .46; p_horm = .40; p_rad = .61).

CONCLUSIONS: Agreement between self-reported and MRA primary breast cancer treatment modality information was excellent for young women diagnosed with breast cancer and was maintained even among women whose recall window was more than 20 years after diagnosis.

PMID:38941510 | DOI:10.1002/cncr.35459