Category: Statistics

PLoS One. 2024 Nov 1;19(11):e0311901. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311901. eCollection 2024.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Access to and use of urgent and emergency care in the United Kingdom’s National Health Service reduced during COVID-19 related lockdowns but demand reportedly increased since then. We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on urgent and emergency health care services activity in an eastern England population of 1.1 million.

METHODS: We used health care activity data from a municipal health department, recorded at the level of discrete events (such as visits to hospital or ambulance calls) to compare system activity between 2018-2020 (pre-COVID), 2020-2021 (lockdown) and 2021-2023 (post-lockdown), carrying out interrupted time series analyses to describe changes in activity.

RESULTS: Daily emergency department (ED) attendances were 10% (95% confidence interval 9-12%) lower during the lockdown period, and 7% (6-8%) higher in the post-lockdown period than pre-COVID. Attendances arriving by ambulance were 13% (12-14%) lower post-lockdown than pre-COVID, while attendances of arrivals by other means were 17% (16-19%) higher. Post-lockdown, overall attendances were continually reducing. ED waiting times were 45% (44-47%) longer in the post-lockdown period compared to the pre-COVID period and continued to increase post-lockdown. There was a 15% (14-16%) reduction in daily ambulance dispatches post-lockdown versus pre-COVID. Ambulance arrivals with delayed handover to hospital care exceeding 60 minutes increased by 17% (16-18%) post-lockdown versus pre-COVID, and probability of delay showed a continuously upward trend post-lockdown of 20% (19-21%) per year.

CONCLUSION: Patients are facing long waits in EDs to be admitted to hospital, discharged or transferred. This results in delays in ambulances handing over patients and attending to other calls, which may explain decreasing rates of ambulance dispatches. Potential solutions are likely to involve enhancing the flow through and discharge of patients from hospital, and a whole systems approach which considers the capacity of the local health and care infrastructure, including intermediate care and social care.

PMID:39485775 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0311901

Nucleosides Nucleotides Nucleic Acids. 2024 Nov 1:1-10. doi: 10.1080/15257770.2024.2421302. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Osteoporosis is a common age-related skeletal disease, characterized by changes in the microarchitectural structure of bone tissue and decreased bone mass, especially affecting postmenopausal women. Genetic and environmental factors affecting bone metabolism play a role in the development of osteoporosis. Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) is an important enzyme involved in the conversion of homocysteine to methionine. Genetic variations in the MTHFR gene lead to impaired function or inactivation of this enzyme. A decrease in MTHFR enzyme activity and an increase in homocysteine levels affect bone metabolism. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and osteoporosis in Turkish postmenopausal women. DNA samples were extracted from 200 volunteers. The PCR-RFLP technique was used to identify the MTHFR gene polymorphisms C677T and A1298C. The statistical significance of the analysis’s results was assessed. C677T genotype and allele frequency distributions were not statistically different between postmenopausal osteoporosis and healthy control groups (p = 0.249, p = 0.754), while A1298C genotype and allele frequency distributions were found to be statistically significant (p = 0.002, p = 0.013). The results of our study showed that the A1298C polymorphism may be a genetic factor associated with osteoporosis in this specific population. However, the C677T polymorphism did not show a significant connection. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the genetic basis of osteoporosis, future research with larger sample sizes and the consideration of additional genetic and environmental factors is essential. Additionally, it is crucial to account for ethnic disparities, gene-gene interactions, and gene-environment interplays. These insights can inform the development of personalized preventive and therapeutic strategies for individuals at risk of osteoporosis in diverse populations.

PMID:39485384 | DOI:10.1080/15257770.2024.2421302

Elife. 2024 Nov 1;12:RP92854. doi: 10.7554/eLife.92854.

ABSTRACT

Interactions between excitatory and inhibitory neurons are critical to computations in cortical circuits but their organization is difficult to assess with standard electrophysiological approaches. Within the medial entorhinal cortex, representation of location by grid and other spatial cells involves circuits in layer 2 in which excitatory stellate cells interact with each other via inhibitory parvalbumin expressing interneurons. Whether this connectivity is structured to support local circuit computations is unclear. Here, we introduce strategies to address the functional organization of excitatory-inhibitory interactions using crossed Cre- and Flp-driver mouse lines to direct targeted presynaptic optogenetic activation and postsynaptic cell identification. We then use simultaneous patch-clamp recordings from postsynaptic neurons to assess their shared input from optically activated presynaptic populations. We find that extensive axonal projections support spatially organized connectivity between stellate cells and parvalbumin interneurons, such that direct connections are often, but not always, shared by nearby neurons, whereas multisynaptic interactions coordinate inputs to neurons with greater spatial separation. We suggest that direct excitatory-inhibitory synaptic interactions may operate at the scale of grid cell clusters, with local modules defined by excitatory-inhibitory connectivity, while indirect interactions may coordinate activity at the scale of grid cell modules.

PMID:39485383 | DOI:10.7554/eLife.92854

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Nov 4;7(11):e2442154. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42154.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: High emergency department (ED) pediatric readiness is associated with improved survival among children receiving emergency care, but state and national costs to reach high ED readiness and the resulting number of lives that may be saved are unknown.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the state and national annual costs of raising all EDs to high pediatric readiness and the resulting number of pediatric lives that may be saved each year.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study used data from EDs in 50 US states and the District of Columbia from 2012 through 2022. Eligible children were ages 0 to 17 years receiving emergency services in US EDs and requiring admission, transfer to another hospital for admission, or dying in the ED (collectively termed at-risk children). Data were analyzed from October 2023 to May 2024.

EXPOSURE: EDs considered to have high readiness, with a weighted pediatric readiness score of 88 or above (range 0 to 100, with higher numbers representing higher readiness).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Annual hospital expenditures to reach high ED readiness from current levels and the resulting number of pediatric lives that may be saved through universal high ED readiness.

RESULTS: A total 842 of 4840 EDs (17.4%; range, 2.9% to 100% by state) had high pediatric readiness. The annual US cost for all EDs to reach high pediatric readiness from current levels was $207 335 302 (95% CI, $188 401 692-$226 268 912), ranging from $0 to $11.84 per child by state. Of the 7619 child deaths occurring annually after presentation, 2143 (28.1%; 95% CI, 678-3608) were preventable through universal high ED pediatric readiness, with population-adjusted state estimates ranging from 0 to 69 pediatric lives per year.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, raising all EDs to high pediatric readiness was estimated to prevent more than one-quarter of deaths among children receiving emergency services, with modest financial investment. State and national policies that raise ED pediatric readiness may save thousands of children’s lives each year.

PMID:39485354 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42154

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Nov 4;7(11):e2442163. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42163.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Meal timing strategies, such as time-restricted eating (TRE), reducing meal frequency, or altering calorie distribution across the day, have gained interest for their potential to enhance weight loss and metabolic health, particularly in managing chronic diseases, yet their long-term benefits are not known.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between meal timing strategies (≥12 weeks) and anthropometric and metabolic indicators.

DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched from inception to October 17, 2023.

STUDY SELECTION: Randomized clinical trials, regardless of language and publication date, involving adults 18 years and older, evaluating within-day meal timing patterns for 12 or more weeks, and reporting anthropometric measures were included. Studies were excluded if participants had eating disorders, prior significant weight change, underwent bariatric surgery, were pregnant, or if controlled variables differed between groups.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Study quality was determined via Risk of Bias 2.0 tool. Data were extracted independently by multiple reviewers. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines were used. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects model on pooled continuous outcomes with 2 or more studies.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: Weight change in kilograms, reported as between-group mean difference with 95% CIs.

RESULTS: Sixty-nine reports of 29 randomized clinical trials including 2485 individuals (1703 [69%] female; mean [SD] age, 44 [9.5] years; and mean [SD] body mass index, 33 [3.5]) were included. Study interventions included TRE (17 studies), meal frequency (8 studies), and calorie distribution (4 studies). There were some concerns of risk of bias for 7 studies and high concerns for 22 studies. Statistically significant weight change was observed in TRE when compared with control (-1.37 kg; 95% CI, -1.99 to -0.75 kg). Lower meal frequency and earlier caloric distribution were also both associated with greater change (-1.85 kg; 95% CI, -3.55 to -0.13 kg; and -1.75 kg; 95% CI, -2.37 to -1.13 kg, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings of this meta-analysis suggest that TRE, lower meal frequency, and earlier caloric distribution in the day may reduce weight compared with standard care and/or nutritional advice; however, the effect sizes found were small and of uncertain clinical importance. High heterogeneity and risk of bias among included studies led to concerns about the certainty of the underpinning evidence. Further research, including trials with larger sample sizes, standardized interventions with prescribed or matched energy intake, and longer follow-up, are needed.

PMID:39485353 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42163

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Nov 4;7(11):e2442361. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42361.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: In patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI), limited physiologic adaptation to acute anemia might lead to greater benefit from a liberal red blood cell (RBC) transfusion strategy. Data on such a possible benefit are lacking.

OBJECTIVES: To compare acute anemia with chronic anemia and post-MI outcomes and estimate the differential effect of a restrictive RBC transfusion strategy compared with a liberal strategy on post-MI outcomes according to anemia acuity.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A prespecified subgroup analysis of the Myocardial Ischemia and Transfusion (MINT) multicenter randomized clinical trial was conducted in 126 hospitals in 6 countries between April 26, 2017, and April 14, 2023, with 30-day follow-up and blinded adjudication of the primary outcome. The analysis included 3144 of 3504 MINT participants (89.7%) with acute MI, a hemoglobin (Hb) level less than 10 g/dL at randomization, and a first Hb measurement available on the day of or the day following hospital admission.

INTERVENTION: The MINT trial randomized participants to a restrictive (Hb <7-8 g/dL) or liberal (Hb <10 g/dL) RBC transfusion strategy. Acute anemia was defined as having a first Hb value greater than 13 g/dL (men) or 12 g/dL (women), or as having a decrease greater than or equal to 2 g/dL between the first Hb measurement and measurement at randomization. Other Hb levels were categorized as chronic anemia.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was a composite of death or recurrent MI up to 30 days after randomization. Secondary outcomes were death, recurrent MI, cardiac death, heart failure, pulmonary complications, and major bleeding events. Intention-to-treat analysis was performed.

RESULTS: Among 3144 included participants (mean [SD] age, 72.3 [11.6] years; 1715 [54.5%] male; 1307 [41.6%] with type 1 MI), 1078 [34.3%]) had acute anemia. Acute anemia was associated with an increased risk of death or recurrent MI (adjusted risk ratio, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.05-1.48). The effect of a restrictive RBC transfusion strategy compared with a liberal strategy was similar for participants with either acute or chronic anemia for all outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this secondary analysis of the MINT trial, acute anemia was associated with less favorable post-MI outcomes than chronic anemia but did not modify the effects of the randomized transfusion strategy. In patients with anemia and MI, the acuity of anemia should not influence the choice of transfusion trigger.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02981407.

PMID:39485351 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42361

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Nov 4;7(11):e2442633. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42633.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Compared with traditional Medicare (TM), Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers have greater financial incentives to reduce the delivery of low-value services (LVS); however, there is limited evidence at a national level on the prevalence of LVS utilization among MA vs TM beneficiaries and whether LVS utilization rates vary among the largest MA insurers.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether there are differences in the rates of LVS delivered to Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in MA vs TM, overall and by the 7 largest MA insurers.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older residing in the US in 2018 with complete demographic information. Eligible TM beneficiaries were enrolled in Parts A, B, and D, and eligible MA beneficiaries were enrolled in Part C with Part D coverage. Data analysis was conducted between February 2022 and August 2024.

EXPOSURES: Medicare plan type.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was utlization of 35 LVS defined by the Milliman Health Waste Calculator. An overdispersed Poisson regression model was used to calculate estimated margins comparing risk-adjusted rates of LVS in TM vs MA, overall and across the 7 largest MA insurers.

RESULTS: The study sample included 3 671 364 unique TM beneficiaries (mean [SD] age, 75.7 [7.7] years; 1 502 631 female [40.9%]) and 2 299 618 unique MA beneficiaries (mean [SD] age, 75.3 [7.3] years; 983 592 female [42.8%]). LVS utilization was lower among those enrolled in MA compared with TM (50.02 vs 52.48 services per 100 beneficiary-years; adjusted absolute difference, -2.46 services per 100 beneficiary-years; 95% CI, -3.16 to -1.75 services per 100 beneficiary-years; P < .001). Within MA, LVS utilization was lower among beneficiaries enrolled in HMOs vs PPOs (48.03 vs 52.66 services per 100 beneficiary-years; adjusted absolute difference, -4.63 services per 100 beneficiary-years; 95% CI, -5.53 to -3.74 services per 100 beneficiary-years; P < .001). While MA beneficiaries enrolled in UnitedHealth, Humana, Centene, and smaller MA insurers had lower rates of LVS compared with those in TM, beneficiaries enrolled in CVS, Cigna, and Anthem showed no differences. Blue Cross Blue Shield Association plans had higher rates of LVS compared with TM.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study of nearly 6 million Medicare beneficiaries, utilization of LVS was on average lower among MA beneficiaries compared with TM beneficiaries, possibly owing to stronger financial incentives in MA to reduce LVS; however, meaningful differences existed across some of the largest MA insurers, suggesting that MA insurers may have variable ability to influence LVS reduction.

PMID:39485350 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42633

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Nov 4;7(11):e2442639. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42639.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: The association between smoking cessation and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in relation to cumulative smoking exposure remains poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations among smoking cessation, lifetime smoking burden, and CVD risk according to the number of years elapsed after smoking cessation.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective cohort study of the Korean National Health Insurance Service database investigated smoking duration and intensity between January 2006 and December 2008. Participants were categorized by self-reported smoking habits as current, ex-, or never-smokers. Smoking records were updated every 2 years until December 2019, with participants whose smoking status changed or whose smoking status was unclear excluded. Data analysis was performed between June and December 2022.

EXPOSURES: Time-updated self-reported smoking status, years since quitting, and cumulative smoking amount (pack-years [PY]).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was incidence and hazard ratio of CVD (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure).

RESULTS: Overall, 5 391 231 participants (39.9% male; mean [SD] age, 45.8 [14.7] years; 853 756 [15.8%] current smokers, 104 604 [1.9%] ex-smokers, and 4 432 871 [82.2%] never smokers) were followed up for a mean (SD) of 4.2 (4.4) years. The median (IQR) baseline cumulative smoking amounts were 14.0 (7.5-20.0) PY in current smokers and 10.5 (5.3-20.0) PY in ex-smokers. The median (IQR) duration of smoking cessation was 4 (2-8) years for ex-smokers. Regardless of continued smoking, a dose-dependent association was evident between smoking and incident CVD. Compared with current smokers, ex-smokers with a lifetime smoking burden of less than 8 PY (light ex-smokers) experienced a significant reduction in CVD risk within 10 years of cessation, with a CVD risk similar to that of never-smokers. Conversely, ex-smokers with at least 8 PY (heavy ex-smokers) exhibited a slower decline in CVD risk than light ex-smokers, requiring more than 25 years for the residual CVD risk to disappear.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, smoking and CVD risk exhibited a dose-dependent association, with light ex-smokers having a CVD risk similar to that of never-smokers relatively soon after smoking cessation. For heavy ex-smokers, greater than 25 years might be required for the residual CVD risk to align with that of never-smokers.

PMID:39485349 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42639

JAMA Health Forum. 2024 Nov 1;5(11):e243656. doi: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2024.3656.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: It is unknown whether state recreational cannabis legalization (RCL) is related to increased rates of prenatal cannabis use or whether RCL-related changes vary with cannabis screening methods or the local policy environment.

OBJECTIVE: To test whether RCL in California was associated with changes in prenatal cannabis use rates, whether changes were evident in both self-report and urine toxicology testing, and whether rates varied by local policies banning vs allowing adult-use retailers post-RCL.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based time-series study used data from pregnancies in Kaiser Permanente Northern California universally screened for cannabis use during early pregnancy by self-report and toxicology testing from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2019. Analyses were conducted from September 2022 to August 2024.

EXPOSURES: California state RCL passage (November 9, 2016) and implementation of legal sales (January 1, 2018) were examined with a 1-month lag. Local policies allowing vs banning medical retailers pre-RCL and adult-use retailers post-RCL were also examined.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Any prenatal cannabis use was based on screening at entrance to prenatal care (typically at 8-10 weeks’ gestation) and defined as (1) a positive urine toxicology test result or self-report, (2) a positive urine toxicology test result, or (3) self-report. Interrupted time series models were fit using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, race and ethnicity, and neighborhood deprivation index.

RESULTS: The sample of 300 993 pregnancies (236 327 unique individuals) comprised 25.9% Asian individuals, 6.4% Black individuals, 26.0% Hispanic individuals, 37.7% White individuals, and 4.1% individuals of other, multiple, or unknown race, with a mean (SD) age of 30.3 (5.4) years. Before RCL implementation, rates of prenatal cannabis use rose steadily from 4.5% in January 2012 to 7.1% in January 2018. There was no change in use rates at the time of RCL passage (level change rate ratio [RR], 1.03; 95% CI, 0.96-1.11) and a statistically significant increase in rates in the first month after RCL implementation, increasing to 8.6% in February 2018 (level change RR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.16). Results were similar when defining prenatal cannabis use by (1) a toxicology test or (2) self-report. In local policy analyses, the post-RCL implementation increase in use was only found among those in jurisdictions allowing adult-use cannabis retailers (allowed RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.33; banned RR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.93-1.10).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this time-series study, RCL implementation in California was associated with an increase in rates of cannabis use during early pregnancy, defined by both self-report and toxicology testing, driven by individuals living in jurisdictions that allowed adult-use retailers.

PMID:39485336 | DOI:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2024.3656

Gynecol Endocrinol. 2024 Dec;40(1):2420937. doi: 10.1080/09513590.2024.2420937. Epub 2024 Nov 1.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the correlation between arm muscle area and handgrip strength among postmenopausal community dwelling low-income women in order to provide an easy anthropometric indicator to assess muscle mass quantity and quality.

METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study involving postmenopausal women (n = 171) from three urban-marginal communities of Guayaquil, Ecuador. Corrected arm muscle area was calculated using the Frisancho formula. Dynapenia was defined as HGS < 16 kg. Spearman’s correlation coefficient was calculated at a 5% significance level to test the correlation between corrected arm muscle area and handgrip strength.

RESULTS: Median (interquartile range: IQR) age of the sample was 72.0 years (17.0). The median of corrected arm muscle area was 34.8 cm² (20.7). The overall prevalence of dynapenia was 57.9% (n = 99). There was a significant decreasing trend with age regarding all anthropometric characteristics and handgrip strength, as well as a higher prevalence of dynapenia with age. For the whole sample, a statistically significant positive correlation was found between corrected arm muscle area and handgrip strength [r = 0.267; p < .001].

There was a significant yet weak positive correlation between corrected arm muscle area and handgrip strength in this postmenopausal sample. There is a need for additional research in this regard.

PMID:39485331 | DOI:10.1080/09513590.2024.2420937