Category: Statistics

Hum Reprod. 2024 Jul 10:deae084. doi: 10.1093/humrep/deae084. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

STUDY QUESTION: What is the nature of women’s care-seeking for difficulties conceiving in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including the correlates of seeking biomedical infertility care at a health facility?

SUMMARY ANSWER: Care-seeking for difficulties getting pregnant was low, much of which involved traditional or religious sources of care, with evidence of sociodemographic disparities in receipt of biomedical care.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Nearly all research on infertility care-seeking patterns in SSA is limited to clinic-based studies among the minority of people in these settings who obtain facility-based services. In the absence of population-based data on infertility care-seeking, we are unable to determine the demand for services and disparities in the use of more effective biomedical sources of care.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We used cross-sectional, population-based data from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) female survey in eight geographies in SSA, including nationally representative data from Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, and Uganda and regionally representative data from two provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (Kinshasa and Kongo Central) and two states in Nigeria (Kano and Lagos). We employed a multi-stage cluster random sampling design with probability proportional to size selection of clusters within each geography to produce representative samples of women aged 15-49. Samples ranged from 1144 in Kano, Nigeria, to 9489 in Kenya. PMA collected these data between November 2021 and December 2022.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We restricted the sample to women who had ever had sex, with analytic samples ranging from 854 in Kano to 8,059 in Kenya, then conducted descriptive and bivariable analyses to examine characteristics of those who sought care for difficulties getting pregnant. Among those who reported seeking care, we conducted bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses to determine factors associated with receipt of biomedical services from a health facility. All analyses were conducted separately by geography.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Our study found low levels of care-seeking for difficulties getting pregnant among sexually active women in eight geographies in SSA, ranging from 3.7% (Kenya) to 15.3% (Côte d’Ivoire). Of this, 51.8% (Burkina Faso) to 86.7% (Kinshasa) involved receipt of biomedical services in health facilities. While many factors were consistently associated with infertility care-seeking from any source across geographies, factors associated with receipt of biomedical care specifically were less pronounced. This may be a result of the highly limited sources of infertility services in SSA; thus, even privileged groups may struggle to obtain effective treatment for difficulties getting pregnant. However, we did observe disparities in biomedical care-seeking in our bivariable results in several geographies, with the wealthiest women, those with more education, and those residing in urban areas generally more likely to have sought biomedical care for difficulties getting pregnant.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our data lacked details on the nature of the services received and outcomes, and we do not have information on reasons why women chose the sources they did. Small samples of women who sought care limited our power to detect significant differences in care-seeking by women’s characteristics in several geographies.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Infertility and access to appropriate treatment are issues of reproductive health and human rights. While our results do not indicate to what extent use of non-biomedical sources of care is driven by preferences, cost, or lack of accessible services, it is clear from our results and existing literature that more needs to be done to ensure access to affordable, quality, cost-effective infertility services in SSA.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was supported by grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV009639) and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (K01HD107172). The funders were not involved in the study design, analyses, manuscript writing, or the decision to publish. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

PMID:38986015 | DOI:10.1093/humrep/deae084

JAMA Surg. 2024 Jul 10. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2024.2262. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: In patients operated on for low rectal cancer, 2-stage Turnbull-Cutait pull-through hand-sewn coloanal anastomosis provides benefits in terms of postoperative morbidity compared with standard hand-sewn coloanal anastomosis associated with diverting ileostomy and further ileostomy reversal.

OBJECTIVE: To compare long-term results of these 2 techniques after ultralow rectal resection for rectal cancer.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this randomized multicenter clinical trial, neither patients nor surgeons were blinded for technique. Patients were recruited in 3 centers. Patients undergoing ultralow anterior rectal resection needing hand-sewn coloanal anastomosis were randomly assigned to 2-stage Turnbull-Cutait pull-through hand-sewn coloanal anastomosis (n = 46) or standard hand-sewn coloanal anastomosis associated with diverting ileostomy (n = 46).

INTERVENTIONS: All patients underwent ultralow anterior resection. Patients assigned to the 2-stage Turnbull-Cutait pull-through group underwent exteriorization of a segment of left colon through the anal canal. After 6 to 10 days, the exteriorized colon was resected and a delayed hand-sewn coloanal anastomosis performed. For patients assigned to standard coloanal anastomosis, the hand-sewn coloanal anastomosis was performed with diverting ileostomy during the first operation. Ileostomy closure was scheduled after adjuvant treatment was completed in about 6 to 8 months.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: The study aimed to compare the differences between the 2 groups in terms of long-term surgery-related morbidity, functional, and oncological outcomes at 3 years postoperatively. Data were analyzed from October 1, 2018, through October 31, 2021.

RESULTS: The 92 patients randomized in the first study were included for the 3-year follow-up. The overall morbidity rate in the 2 groups showed that 15 patients (16.3%) had complications with a difference of 6.52 (95% CI, -8.93 to 21.79). Nine patients (19.6%) and 6 patients (13.0%) in the 2-stage Turnbull-Cutait pull-through group and hand-sewn coloanal anastomosis group, respectively, had complications without statistically significant differences (P = .57). Oncological results were comparable between the groups. Long-term fecal continence in the CCA and TCA groups, respectively, assessed using the Wexner Incontinence Score was 10.9 (5.50-15.5) vs 13.0 (7.25-16.0; P = .92), Low Anterior Resection Syndrome score was 32.0 (21.0-37.0) vs 34.0 (23.2-38.5; P = .76), and Colorectal Functional Outcome score was 38.5 (23.0-47.1) vs 40.8 (23.3-58.2; P = .30).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, after a 3-year follow-up period, 2-stage Turnbull-Cutait anastomosis for ultralow rectal cancer could be considered as a surgical alternative that has the valuable benefit of avoiding a temporary stoma with similar results in terms of morbidity, fecal continence, patient satisfaction, quality of life, and oncological outcomes when compared with hand-sewn coloanal anastomosis with ileostomy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01766661.

PMID:38985480 | DOI:10.1001/jamasurg.2024.2262

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Jul 1;7(7):e2420218. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20218.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Handheld phone use while driving is a major factor in vehicle crashes. Scalable interventions are needed to encourage drivers not to use their phones.

OBJECTIVE: To test whether interventions involving social comparison feedback and/or financial incentives can reduce drivers’ handheld phone use.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In a randomized clinical trial, interventions were administered nationwide in the US via a mobile application in the context of a usage-based insurance program (Snapshot Mobile application). Customers were eligible to be invited to participate in the study if enrolled in the usage-based insurance program for 30 to 70 days. The study was conducted from May 13 to June 30, 2019. Analysis was completed December 22, 2023.

INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 6 trial arms for a 7-week intervention period: (1) control; (2) feedback, with weekly push notification about their handheld phone use compared with that of similar others; (3) standard incentive, with a maximum $50 award at the end of the intervention based on how their handheld phone use compared with similar others; (4) standard incentive plus feedback, combining interventions of arms 2 and 3; (5) reframed incentive plus feedback, with a maximum $7.15 award each week, framed as participant’s to lose; and (6) doubled reframed incentive plus feedback, a maximum $14.29 weekly loss-framed award.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: Proportion of drive time engaged in handheld phone use in seconds per hour (s/h) of driving. Analyses were conducted with the intention-to-treat approach.

RESULTS: Of 17 663 customers invited by email to participate, 2109 opted in and were randomized. A total of 2020 drivers finished the intervention period (68.0% female; median age, 30 [IQR, 25-39] years). Median baseline handheld phone use was 216 (IQR, 72-480) s/h. Relative to control, feedback and standard incentive participants did not reduce their handheld phone use. Standard incentive plus feedback participants reduced their use by -38 (95% CI, -69 to -8) s/h (P = .045); reframed incentive plus feedback participants reduced their use by -56 (95% CI, -87 to -26) s/h (P < .001); and doubled reframed incentive plus feedback participants reduced their use by -42 s/h (95% CI, -72 to -13 s/h; P = .007). The 5 active treatment arms did not differ significantly from each other.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this randomized clinical trial, providing social comparison feedback plus incentives reduced handheld phone use while individuals were driving.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03833219.

PMID:38985474 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20218

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Jul 1;7(7):e2420842. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20842.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Etiologic diagnoses for rare diseases can involve a diagnostic odyssey, with repeated health care interactions and inconclusive diagnostics. Prior studies reported cost savings associated with genome-wide sequencing (GWS) compared with cytogenetic or molecular testing through rapid genetic diagnosis, but there is limited evidence on whether diagnosis from GWS is associated with reduced health care costs.

OBJECTIVE: To measure changes in health care costs after diagnosis from GWS for Canadian and English children with suspected rare diseases.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study was a quasiexperimental retrospective analysis across 3 distinct English and Canadian cohorts, completed in 2023. Mixed-effects generalized linear regression was used to estimate associations between GWS and costs in the 2 years before and after GWS. Difference-in-differences regression was used to estimate associations of genetic diagnosis and costs. Costs are in 2019 US dollars. GWS was conducted in a research setting (Genomics England 100 000 Genomes Project [100KGP] and Clinical Assessment of the Utility of Sequencing and Evaluation as a Service [CAUSES] Research Clinic) or clinical outpatient setting (publicly reimbursed GWS in British Columbia [BC], Canada). Participants were children with developmental disorders, seizure disorders, or both undergoing GWS between 2014 and 2019. Data were analyzed from April 2021 to September 2023.

EXPOSURES: GWS and genetic diagnosis.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Annual health care costs and diagnostic costs per child.

RESULTS: Study cohorts included 7775 patients in 100KGP, among whom 788 children had epilepsy (mean [SD] age at GWS, 11.6 [11.1] years; 400 female [50.8%]) and 6987 children had an intellectual disability (mean [SD] age at GWS, 8.2 [8.4] years; 2750 female [39.4%]); 77 patients in CAUSES (mean [SD] age at GWS, 8.5 [4.4] years; 33 female [42.9%]); and 118 publicly reimbursed GWS recipients from BC (mean [SD] age at GWS, 5.5 [5.2] years; 58 female [49.2%]). GWS diagnostic yield was 143 children (18.1%) for those with epilepsy and 1323 children (18.9%) for those with an intellectual disability in 100KGP, 47 children (39.8%) in the BC publicly reimbursed setting, and 42 children (54.5%) in CAUSES. Mean annual per-patient spending over the study period was $5283 (95% CI, $5121-$5427) for epilepsy and $3373 (95% CI, $3322-$3424) for intellectual disability in the 100KGP, $724 (95% CI, $563-$886) in CAUSES, and $1573 (95% CI, $1372-$1773) in the BC reimbursed setting. Receiving a genetic diagnosis from GWS was not associated with changed costs in any cohort.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, receiving a genetic diagnosis was not associated with cost savings. This finding suggests that patient benefit and cost-effectiveness should instead drive GWS implementation.

PMID:38985473 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20842

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Jul 1;7(7):e2420853. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20853.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Telehealth services expanded rapidly during the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in availability of telehealth services at outpatient mental health treatment facilities (MHTFs) throughout the US during and after the COVID-19 PHE.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study, callers posing as prospective clients contacted a random sample of 1404 MHTFs drawn from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration’s Behavioral Health Treatment Locator from December 2022 to March 2023 (wave 1 [W1]; during PHE). From September to November 2023 (wave 2 [W2]; after PHE), callers recontacted W1 participants. Analyses were conducted in January 2024.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Callers inquired whether MHTFs offered telehealth (yes vs no), and, if yes, whether they offered (1) audio-only telehealth (vs audio and video); (2) telehealth for therapy, medication management, and/or diagnostic services; and (3) telehealth for comorbid alcohol use disorder (AUD). Sustainers (offered telehealth in both waves), late adopters (did not offer telehealth in W1 but did in W2), nonadopters (did not offer telehealth in W1 or W2), and discontinuers (offered telehealth in W1 but not W2) were all compared.

RESULTS: During W2, 1001 MHTFs (86.1%) were successfully recontacted. A total of 713 (71.2%) were located in a metropolitan county, 151 (15.1%) were publicly operated, and 935 (93.4%) accepted Medicaid as payment. The percentage offering telehealth declined from 799 (81.6%) to 765 (79.0%) (odds ratio [OR], 0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-1.00; P < .05). Among MHTFs offering telehealth, a smaller percentage in W2 offered audio-only telehealth (369 [49.3%] vs 244 [34.1%]; OR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.44-0.64; P < .001) and telehealth for comorbid AUD (559 [76.3%] vs 457 [66.5%]; OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.50-0.76; P < .001) compared with W1. In W2, MHTFs were more likely to report telehealth was only available under certain conditions for therapy (141 facilities [18.0%] vs 276 [36.4%]; OR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.10-3.26; P < .001) and medication management (216 facilities [28.0%] vs 304 [41.3%]; OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.48-2.21; P < .001). A total of 684 MHTFs (72.0%) constituted sustainers, 94 (9.9%) were discontinuers, 106 (11.2%) were nonadopters, and 66 (7.0%) were late adopters. Compared with sustainers, discontinuers were less likely to be private for-profit (adjusted OR [aOR], 0.28; 95% CI, 0.11-0.68) or private not-for-profit (aOR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.14-0.48) after adjustment for facility and area characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Based on this longitudinal cohort study of 1001 MHTFs, telehealth availability has declined since the PHE end with respect to scope and modality of services, suggesting targeted policies may be necessary to sustain telehealth access.

PMID:38985472 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20853

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Jul 1;7(7):e2420934. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20934.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: The persistent stigma associated with mental health conditions is a major challenge worldwide. Celebrities may improve this by openly discussing their own mental health issues, potentially influencing public attitudes and encouraging individuals to seek treatment for these conditions.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of celebrity mental health disclosures on the incidence and prevalence of panic disorder diagnosis in South Korea.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study included the entire South Korean population from January 2004 to December 2021, as reflected in the National Health Insurance Service data. Analysis was conducted from May 2022 through January 2024.

EXPOSURE: Time periods analyzed included the timeframe before (from January 2004 to December 2010) and after the public disclosures of panic disorder by 3 high-profile Korean celebrities between December 2010 and January 2012 (from January 2011 to December 2021).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Monthly incidence and prevalence of panic disorder, defined by the presence of a clinical diagnosis of the condition. Trends were assessed using interrupted time series analysis with autoregressive integrated moving average models. To assess public interest in panic disorder, trends in search data were analyzed, examining the association between the timing of increased searches and changes in the incidence and prevalence of panic disorder. Data on obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) were included as a control.

RESULTS: The study covered the entire population of South Korea, including 48 559 946 individuals in January 2004 and 52 593 886 individuals in December 2021. Before 2011, the mean (SD) annual prevalence of panic disorder was stable at 560 (140) persons per 100 000 persons per year. The celebrity disclosure in December 2010 was associated with higher monthly incidence rates of panic disorder, as measured by insurance claims data, changes that were observed in both the level (5.8 persons; 95% CI, 2.2-9.5 persons) and slope (0.78 persons per month; 95% CI, 0.19-1.40 persons per month) per 100 000 persons. By 2021, the observed annual prevalence per 100 000 persons reached 7530 persons, an increase of 775.6% compared with the 860 persons (95% CI, 330-1400 persons) estimated if the disclosures had not occurred. Internet searches anticipated changes in monthly prevalence with a lag of 2 or 3 months (F = 4.26, P = .02 and F = 3.11, P = .03, respectively). The celebrity disclosures had no significant association with the incidence or prevalence of OCD.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this observational cohort study, celebrity disclosure of mental health conditions was associated with a sustained reduction in stigma, as reflected in increased help-seeking behavior for the condition over more than a decade. This underscores the influential role celebrities can play in shaping public health perceptions and behaviors, offering valuable insights for the development of future mental health policies and public awareness campaigns.

PMID:38985471 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20934

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Jul 1;7(7):e2420963. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20963.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) declines over time after hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure by direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies. Liver society guidelines recommend continuing HCC screening for these patients, but data on screening outcomes are lacking.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of HCC screening after HCV cure with overall survival.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study evaluated patients with HCV cirrhosis who achieved DAA-induced HCV cure in the Veterans Affairs health care system between January 2014 and December 2022. Data analysis occurred from October 2023 to January 2024.

EXPOSURES: The percentage of time spent up to date with recommended HCC screening was calculated by year of follow-up and during the 4 years preceding HCC diagnosis (the detectable asymptomatic phase).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was overall survival after HCC diagnosis and was compared by percentage of time spent up to date with screening using Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox proportional hazards regression. Early-stage HCC at diagnosis and curative treatment were secondary outcomes assessed using logistic regression.

RESULTS: A total of 16 902 individuals were included (median [IQR] age, 64.0 [60.5-67.4] years; 16 426 male [97.2%]), of whom 1622 developed HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC declined from 2.4% (409 of 16 902 individuals) to 1.0% (27 of 2833 individuals) from year 1 to year 7 of follow-up. Being up to date with screening for at least 50% of time during the 4 years preceding HCC diagnosis was associated with improved overall survival (log-rank test of equality over strata P = .002). In multivariate analysis, each 10% increase in follow-up spent up to date with screening was associated with a 3.2% decrease in the hazard of death (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99). There was a statistically significant interaction between time since HCV cure and screening, with no association observed among those who received a diagnosis of HCC more than 5 years after HCV cure. Each 10% of time spent up to date with screening was associated with a 10.1% increased likelihood of diagnosis with early-stage HCC (95% CI, 6.3%-14.0%) and a 6.8% increased likelihood of curative treatment (95% CI, 2.8%-11.0%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study of persons with HCV-related cirrhosis who achieved HCV cure and subsequently developed HCC, remaining up to date with screening was associated with improved overall survival, supporting the screening of eligible individuals.

PMID:38985470 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20963

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Jul 1;7(7):e2420970. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20970.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Patients using assisted reproductive technology (ART) may need additional counseling about the increased risks of placental abruption and preterm delivery. Further investigation into the potential additive risk of ART and placental abruption is needed.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain the risk of placental abruption in patients who conceived with ART and to evaluate if placental abruption and ART conception are associated with an increased risk of preterm delivery (<37 weeks’ gestation) over and above the risks conferred by each factor alone.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study used data from the National Inpatient Sample, which includes data from all-payer hospital inpatient discharges from 48 states across the US. Participants included women aged 15 to 54 years who delivered from 2000 through 2019. Data were analyzed from January 17 to April 18, 2024.

EXPOSURES: Pregnancies conceived with ART.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Risks of placental abruption and preterm delivery in ART conception compared with spontaneous conceptions. Associations were expressed as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs derived from weighted logistic regression models before and after adjusting for confounders. The relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) of the risk of preterm delivery based on ART conception and placental abruption was also assessed.

RESULTS: Of 78 901 058 deliveries, the mean (SD) maternal age was 27.9 (6.0) years, and 9 212 117 patients (11.7%) were Black individuals, 14 878 539 (18.9%) were Hispanic individuals, 34 899 594 (44.2%) were White individuals, and 19 910 807 (25.2%) were individuals of other races and ethnicities. Of the total hospital deliveries, 98.2% were singleton pregnancies, 68.8% were vaginal deliveries, and 52.1% were covered by private insurance. The risks of placental abruption among spontaneous and ART conceptions were 11 and 17 per 1000 hospital discharges, respectively. After adjusting for confounders, the adjusted OR (AOR) of placental abruption was 1.42 (95% CI, 1.34-1.51) in ART pregnancies compared with spontaneous conceptions, with increased odds in White women (AOR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.31-1.53) compared with Black women (AOR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.93-1.44). The odds of preterm delivery were significantly higher in pregnancies conceived by ART compared with spontaneous conceptions (AOR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.42-1.51). The risk of preterm delivery increased when patients had both ART conception and placental abruption (RERI, 2.0; 95% CI, 0.5-3.5).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study, patients who conceived using ART and developed placental abruption had a greater risk of preterm delivery compared with spontaneous conception without placental abruption. These findings have implications for counseling patients who seek infertility treatment and obstetrical management of ART pregnancies.

PMID:38985469 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20970

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 Jul 1;7(7):e2421290. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.21290.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Machine learning has potential to transform cancer care by helping clinicians prioritize patients for serious illness conversations. However, models need to be evaluated for unequal performance across racial groups (ie, racial bias) so that existing racial disparities are not exacerbated.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether racial bias exists in a predictive machine learning model that identifies 180-day cancer mortality risk among patients with solid malignant tumors.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study, a machine learning model to predict cancer mortality for patients aged 21 years or older diagnosed with cancer between January 2016 and December 2021 was developed with a random forest algorithm using retrospective data from the Mount Sinai Health System cancer registry, Social Security Death Index, and electronic health records up to the date when databases were accessed for cohort extraction (February 2022).

EXPOSURE: Race category.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcomes were model discriminatory performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], F1 score) among each race category (Asian, Black, Native American, White, and other or unknown) and fairness metrics (equal opportunity, equalized odds, and disparate impact) among each pairwise comparison of race categories. True-positive rate ratios represented equal opportunity; both true-positive and false-positive rate ratios, equalized odds; and the percentage of predictive positive rate ratios, disparate impact. All metrics were estimated as a proportion or ratio, with variability captured through 95% CIs. The prespecified criterion for the model’s clinical use was a threshold of at least 80% for fairness metrics across different racial groups to ensure the model’s prediction would not be biased against any specific race.

RESULTS: The test validation dataset included 43 274 patients with balanced demographics. Mean (SD) age was 64.09 (14.26) years, with 49.6% older than 65 years. A total of 53.3% were female; 9.5%, Asian; 18.9%, Black; 0.1%, Native American; 52.2%, White; and 19.2%, other or unknown race; 0.1% had missing race data. A total of 88.9% of patients were alive, and 11.1% were dead. The AUROCs, F1 scores, and fairness metrics maintained reasonable concordance among the racial subgroups: the AUROCs ranged from 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72-0.78) for Asian patients and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) for Black patients to 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.79) for patients with other or unknown race; F1 scores, from 0.32 (95% CI, 0.32-0.33) for White patients to 0.40 (95% CI, 0.39-0.42) for Black patients; equal opportunity ratios, from 0.96 (95% CI, 0.95-0.98) for Black patients compared with White patients to 1.02 (95% CI, 1.00-1.04) for Black patients compared with patients with other or unknown race; equalized odds ratios, from 0.87 (95% CI, 0.85-0.92) for Black patients compared with White patients to 1.16 (1.10-1.21) for Black patients compared with patients with other or unknown race; and disparate impact ratios, from 0.86 (95% CI, 0.82-0.89) for Black patients compared with White patients to 1.17 (95% CI, 1.12-1.22) for Black patients compared with patients with other or unknown race.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, the lack of significant variation in performance or fairness metrics indicated an absence of racial bias, suggesting that the model fairly identified cancer mortality risk across racial groups. It remains essential to consistently review the model’s application in clinical settings to ensure equitable patient care.

PMID:38985468 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.21290

J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2024 Aug 15;96(5):439-446. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000003450.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Anal cancer is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV), particularly HPV-16, and is preceded by anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSILs). The incidence of anal cancer is highest among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV (MSMLWH) and increases with age. However, most previous studies of anal HPV infection and anal HSIL were performed on men under 50 years old, and relatively little is known about HSIL among older MSMLWH or MSM not living with HIV (MSM-Not-LWH).

SETTING: We enrolled MSM who were aged 50+ during 2018-2022 in San Francisco, CA.

METHODS: One hundred twenty-nine MSMLWH and 109 MSM-not-LWH participated. All participants had anal HPV DNA testing (Atila Biosystems) and high-resolution anoscopy with a biopsy of visible lesions.

RESULTS: Among MSMLWH, 47% had anal HSIL, 19% had HPV-16, and 51% had other oncogenic anal HPV types (excluding HPV-16). Among MSM-not-LWH, 37% had anal HSIL, 22% had HPV-16, and 34% had other oncogenic anal HPV types. Increasing age was not statistically associated with prevalent HSIL, HPV-16, or other oncogenic HPV infections in MSMLWH or MSM-not-LWH. HPV-16 (odds ratio: 45.1, 95% confidence interval: 15.8-129); other oncogenic HPV types (odds ratio: 5.95, 95% confidence interval: 2.74-12.9) were associated with increased odds of anal HSIL, adjusted for age, income, education, and HIV status.

CONCLUSION: The prevalence of oncogenic anal HPV, anal HPV-16, and anal HSIL remains very high in older MSMLWH and MSM-not-LWH. With recent evidence showing that treating anal HSIL prevents anal cancer, MSM aged 50+ should be considered for anal cancer screening.

PMID:38985441 | DOI:10.1097/QAI.0000000000003450