Category: Statistics

JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2024 Jun 19;10:e57807. doi: 10.2196/57807.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization declared mpox an international public health emergency. Since January 1, 2022, China has been ranked among the top 10 countries most affected by the mpox outbreak globally. However, there is a lack of spatial epidemiological studies on mpox, which are crucial for accurately mapping the spatial distribution and clustering of the disease.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide geographically accurate visual evidence to determine priority areas for mpox prevention and control.

METHODS: Locally confirmed mpox cases were collected between June and November 2023 from 31 provinces of mainland China excluding Taiwan, Macao, and Hong Kong. Spatiotemporal epidemiological analyses, including spatial autocorrelation and regression analyses, were conducted to identify the spatiotemporal characteristics and clustering patterns of mpox attack rate and its spatial relationship with sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors.

RESULTS: From June to November 2023, a total of 1610 locally confirmed mpox cases were reported in 30 provinces in mainland China, resulting in an attack rate of 11.40 per 10 million people. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that in July (Moran I=0.0938; P=.08), August (Moran I=0.1276; P=.08), and September (Moran I=0.0934; P=.07), the attack rates of mpox exhibited a clustered pattern and positive spatial autocorrelation. The Getis-Ord Gi^* statistics identified hot spots of mpox attack rates in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Hainan. Beijing and Tianjin were consistent hot spots from June to October. No cold spots with low mpox attack rates were detected by the Getis-Ord Gi^* statistics. Local Moran I statistics identified a high-high (HH) clustering of mpox attack rates in Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin. Guangdong province consistently exhibited HH clustering from June to November, while Beijing and Tianjin were identified as HH clusters from July to September. Low-low clusters were mainly located in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Xizang, Qinghai, and Gansu. Ordinary least squares regression models showed that the cumulative mpox attack rates were significantly and positively associated with the proportion of the urban population (t_0.05/2,1=2.4041 P=.02), per capita gross domestic product (t_0.05/2,1=2.6955; P=.01), per capita disposable income (t_0.05/2,1=2.8303; P=.008), per capita consumption expenditure (PCCE; t_0.05/2,1=2.7452; P=.01), and PCCE for health care (t_0.05/2,1=2.5924; P=.01). The geographically weighted regression models indicated a positive association and spatial heterogeneity between cumulative mpox attack rates and the proportion of the urban population, per capita gross domestic product, per capita disposable income, and PCCE, with high R² values in north and northeast China.

CONCLUSIONS: Hot spots and HH clustering of mpox attack rates identified by local spatial autocorrelation analysis should be considered key areas for precision prevention and control of mpox. Specifically, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin provinces should be prioritized for mpox prevention and control. These findings provide geographically precise and visualized evidence to assist in identifying key areas for targeted prevention and control.

PMID:38896444 | DOI:10.2196/57807

J Clin Gastroenterol. 2024 Jun 13. doi: 10.1097/MCG.0000000000002031. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The diagnosis of RGERD in patients typically involves 24-hour esophageal pH monitoring, but due to its invasiveness and low patient compliance, new screening methods are needed. In this study, a lactulose breath test (LBT) was conducted to detect the growth of small intestine bacteria (SIBO) and explore the potential relationship between LBT and RGERD to identify a new treatment method for RGERD.

METHODS: A total of 178 patients with gastroesophageal reflux were enrolled from June 2020 to December 2022 in the Gastroenterology Department, Building 3, the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University; these patients included 96 patients with nonrefractory GERD (NRGERD) and 82 patients with RGERD. The Gerd Q score, reflux symptom index (RSI) score, gastroscopy results, clinical symptoms, and other related indicators were collected. Statistical methods were used to analyze the gathered data.

RESULTS: The incidence of acid reflux and heartburn in patients with RGERD was significantly greater than that in patients with NRGERD (67.10% vs. 42.70%, P<0.01 and 65.00% vs. 34.40%, P<0.01). The CH4 values of patients with RGERD were significantly greater than those of patients with NRGERD at each time point, and there was a correlation between the CH4 values at 60 min and RGERD (P<0.05). For patients with RGERD, the incidence of abdominal pain, acid regurgitation, and heartburn was greater in the CH4-positive group than in the CH4-negative group (61.90% vs. 57.50%, 69.05% vs. 65.00%, 69.05% vs. 57.50%, P>0.05). The incidence of nausea was also greater in the CH4-positive group than in the CH4-negative group (61.90% vs. 35.00%, P<0.05).

CONCLUSION: Increased CH4 levels are correlated with RGERD. In addition, patients with RGERD may develop SIBO after long-term use of PPIs, and interventions involving SIBO could provide new ideas for the treatment of RGERD.

PMID:38896424 | DOI:10.1097/MCG.0000000000002031

Health Rep. 2024 Jun 19;35(6):16-28. doi: 10.25318/82-003-x202400600002-eng.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study explores the link between dental insurance, income, and oral health care access among seniors (aged 65 and over) in Canada. It contributes to the understanding of oral health care among seniors before the implementation of the Canadian Dental Care Plan.

DATA AND METHODS: This study uses data from the 2019/2020 Canadian Health Survey on Seniors (n=41,635) to report descriptive statistics and logistic regression model results and examine factors associated with seniors living in the community and access to oral health care services.

RESULTS: At the time of the survey (2019/2020), 72.5% of seniors in Canada reported having had a dental visit in the past 12 months, with 83.0% of insured and 65.3% of uninsured seniors reporting visits. Seniors reporting excellent or very good oral health had a higher prevalence of visits (79.2%) compared with those with good, fair, or poor oral health (62.3%). Among seniors who had not visited a dental professional in three years, 56.3% deemed it unnecessary, and 30.8% identified cost as the major barrier. After sociodemographic characteristics were controlled for, insured seniors were more likely to have had a dental visit in the past 12 months (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 2.27; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.03 to 2.54) and were less likely to avoid dental visits because of cost (OR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.12 to 0.28) compared with their uninsured counterparts.

INTERPRETATION: This study underscores the role of dental insurance in seniors’ oral health care access. While insurance is associated with seniors’ access to oral health care services, the study also emphasizes the need to consider social determinants of oral health such as income, gender, age, level of education, and place of residence when assessing oral health care access for seniors.

PMID:38896417 | DOI:10.25318/82-003-x202400600002-eng

Health Rep. 2024 Jun 19;35(6):3-15. doi: 10.25318/82-003-x202400600001-eng.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Extreme heat has significant impacts on mortality. In Canada, past research has analyzed the degree to which non-accidental mortality increases during single extreme heat events; however, few studies have considered multiple causes of death and the impacts of extreme heat events on mortality over longer time periods.

DATA AND METHODS: Daily death counts attributable to non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory causes were retrieved for the 12 most populous cities in Canada from 2000 to 2020. Generalized additive models were applied to quantify daily mortality risks for people aged younger than 65 years and for those aged 65 years and older in each city and for each cause of death. Model results were used to calculate the change in mortality risks and the number of excess deaths attributable to extreme heat during extreme heat events.

RESULTS: Elevated mortality risks were observed during extreme heat events in most cities for non-accidental and respiratory causes. The impacts of extreme heat on non-accidental mortality were typically greater for people aged 65 and older than for those aged younger than 65. Significantly higher non-accidental mortality risks were observed during extreme heat events for people aged 65 and older in Montréal, the city of Québec, Surrey, and Toronto. For cardiovascular and respiratory causes, people aged 65 and older had significantly higher mortality risks during extreme heat events in Montréal, and both Montréal and Toronto, respectively. In the 12 cities, approximately 670 excess non-accidental deaths, 115 excess cardiovascular deaths, and 115 excess respiratory deaths were attributable to extreme heat events during the study period. Mortality risks during extreme heat events were generally higher in cities with larger proportions of renter households and fewer extreme heat events.

INTERPRETATION: This study estimates the longer-term impacts of extreme heat events on three mortality outcomes in a set of large Canadian cities. As climate change causes more frequent and intense extreme heat events, and as policy makers aim to reduce the health impacts of heat, it is important to understand how and where extreme heat affects health.

PMID:38896416 | DOI:10.25318/82-003-x202400600001-eng

Int J Comput Assist Radiol Surg. 2024 Jun 19. doi: 10.1007/s11548-024-03200-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The conventional method to reconstruct the bone level for orbital defects, which is based on mirroring and manual adaptation, is time-consuming and the accuracy highly depends on the expertise of the clinical engineer. The aim of this study is to propose and evaluate an automated reconstruction method utilizing a Gaussian process morphable model (GPMM).

METHODS: Sixty-five Computed Tomography (CT) scans of healthy midfaces were used to create a GPMM that can model shape variations of the orbital region. Parameter optimization was performed by evaluating several quantitative metrics inspired on the shape modeling literature, e.g. generalization and specificity. The reconstruction error was estimated by reconstructing artificial defects created in orbits from fifteen CT scans that were not included in the GPMM. The developed algorithms utilize the existing framework of Gaussian process morphable models, as implemented in the Scalismo software.

RESULTS: By evaluating the proposed quality metrics, adequate parameters are chosen for non-rigid registration and reconstruction. The resulting median reconstruction error using the GPMM was lower (0.35 ± 0.16 mm) compared to the mirroring method (0.52 ± 0.18 mm). In addition, the GPMM-based reconstruction is automated and can be applied to large bilateral defects with a median reconstruction error of 0.39 ± 0.11 mm.

CONCLUSION: The GPMM-based reconstruction proves to be less time-consuming and more accurate than reconstruction by mirroring. Further validation through clinical studies on patients with orbital defects is warranted. Nevertheless, the results underscore the potential of GPMM-based reconstruction as a promising alternative for designing patient-specific implants.

PMID:38896405 | DOI:10.1007/s11548-024-03200-4

Bull Math Biol. 2024 Jun 19;86(8):93. doi: 10.1007/s11538-024-01322-z.

ABSTRACT

Virotherapy treatment is a new and promising target therapy that selectively attacks cancer cells without harming normal cells. Mathematical models of oncolytic viruses have shown predator-prey like oscillatory patterns as result of an underlying Hopf bifurcation. In a spatial context, these oscillations can lead to different spatio-temporal phenomena such as hollow-ring patterns, target patterns, and dispersed patterns. In this paper we continue the systematic analysis of these spatial oscillations and discuss their relevance in the clinical context. We consider a bifurcation analysis of a spatially explicit reaction-diffusion model to find the above mentioned spatio-temporal virus infection patterns. The desired pattern for tumor eradication is the hollow ring pattern and we find exact conditions for its occurrence. Moreover, we derive the minimal speed of travelling invasion waves for the cancer and for the oncolytic virus. Our numerical simulations in 2-D reveal complex spatial interactions of the virus infection and a new phenomenon of a periodic peak splitting. An effect that we cannot explain with our current methods.

PMID:38896363 | DOI:10.1007/s11538-024-01322-z

J Neurooncol. 2024 Jun 19. doi: 10.1007/s11060-024-04704-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Diffuse low-grade gliomas (dLGG) often have a frontal location, which may negatively affect patients’ executive functions (EF). Being diagnosed with dLGG and having to undergo intensive treatment can be emotionally stressful. The ability to cope with this stress in an adaptive, active and flexible way may be hampered by impaired EF. Consequently, patients may suffer from increased mental distress. The aim of the present study was to explore profiles of EF, coping and mental distress and identify characteristics of each profile.

METHODS: 151 patients with dLGG were included. Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to explore profiles. Additional demographical, tumor and radiological characteristics were included.

RESULTS: Four clusters were found: 1) overall good functioning (25% of patients); 2) poor executive functioning, good psychosocial functioning (32%); 3) good executive functioning, poor psychosocial functioning (18%) and; 4) overall poor functioning (25%). Characteristics of the different clusters were lower educational level and more (micro)vascular brain damage (cluster 2), a younger age (cluster 3), and a larger tumor volume (cluster 4). EF was not a distinctive factor for coping, nor was it for mental distress. Maladaptive coping, however, did distinguish clusters with higher mental distress (cluster 3 and 4) from clusters with lower levels of mental distress (cluster 1 and 2).

CONCLUSION: Four distinctive clusters with different levels of functioning and characteristics were identified. EF impairments did not hinder the use of active coping strategies. Moreover, maladaptive coping, but not EF impairment, was related to increased mental distress in patients with dLGG.

PMID:38896357 | DOI:10.1007/s11060-024-04704-4

Pituitary. 2024 Jun 19. doi: 10.1007/s11102-024-01414-y. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: For asymptomatic non-functioning pituitary adenomas (NFPAs), conservative approaches such as observation are preferred. However, some NFPAs exhibit poor prognoses. Thus, the purpose of this study was to investigate clinicopathological characteristics of tumors for identifying those with unfavorable prognoses.

METHODS: A total of 125 patients with NFPAs who underwent surgery between November 2017 and December 2022 at our institution were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical, radiological, and pathological data, including hormone profiles, tumor size, presence of cavernous sinus invasion, and Ki-67 index levels, were reviewed. High-risk PAs were identified according to 2022 WHO criteria. Statistical analyses including Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to evaluate factors associated with tumor progression or recurrence.

RESULTS: A high-risk group demonstrated a significantly higher rate of tumor progression/recurrence than a low-risk group (p-value = 0.004). In multivariate analysis, the high-risk group at the time of diagnosis remained as an independent prognostic factor for NFPAs (p-value = 0.0148). The high-risk group also had a higher percentage of younger patients (80.0% in the high-risk group vs. 62.2% in the low-risk group, p-value = 0.016) and female patients (91.4% vs. 34.4%, p< 0.001). The presence of cavernous sinus invasion and higher Ki-67 index levels were more commonly observed in the high-risk group, although these factors did not significantly impact the overall prognosis.

CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that patients with high-risk NFPAs have a more aggressive disease course and a higher rate of progression or recurrence. This high-risk group has higher prevalence of younger and female patients. They may benefit from closer monitoring and possibly more aggressive treatment approaches.

PMID:38896347 | DOI:10.1007/s11102-024-01414-y

Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2024 Jun 19. doi: 10.1007/s10549-024-07380-0. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: To offer an extensive retrospective experience on the management of male breast cancer.

METHODS: A multicenter retrospective observational cohort study was conducted, including male patients diagnosed with breast cancer (invasive or in situ) in 12 Italian breast units from January 1975 to December 2019. Patients aged 18 years or older were assessed for eligibility. Exclusion criteria were metastatic cancer at diagnosis, previous cancer(s), received neoadjuvant treatment, incomplete data on (neo) adjuvant treatment(s), and/or follow-up data. Data on radiological examinations, demographic characteristics, risk factors, histological features, receptor status, treatments, and follow-up were collected.

RESULTS: In a series of 671 male patients with breast cancer assessed for eligibility, 403 (28 in situ and 375 invasive neoplasms) were included in the study. All included patients underwent surgery. The median age at surgery was 63.8 years (IQR 56.1-72.1). In 68% of cases, patients underwent echography, and in 55.1%, a mammography. Most patients were ER and PR positive (63.8%), HER2 negative (80.4%), with high (≥ 20%) Ki67 values (61.3%), and luminal B subtype (51.1%). The 10-year overall survival was 73.6% (95% CI 67.0-79.1) for invasive breast cancer and 90% (95% CI 65.6-97.4) for in situ breast cancer. In patients with invasive breast cancer, at univariable analysis, having a G3 tumor (vs. G1), pT2/3/4 (vs. pT1), pN2/3 (vs. pN0), luminal B subtype with Ki67 ≥ 20% (vs. Luminal A), were significantly associated with a higher risk of death. In multivariable analyses, pT2/3/4 (vs. pT1) remained significantly associated with a higher risk of death (HR 3.14, 95% CI 1.83-5.39), and having a HER2 positive or a triple-negative subtype (vs. Luminal A) was also significantly associated with a higher risk of mortality (HR 4.76, 95% CI 1.26-18.1).

CONCLUSION: Male breast cancer is a rare disease, the better understanding of which is necessary for a more effective diagnostic and therapeutic approach.

PMID:38896332 | DOI:10.1007/s10549-024-07380-0

Virus Genes. 2024 Jun 19. doi: 10.1007/s11262-024-02080-9. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Nigeria recorded one of the earliest outbreaks of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 in 2006, which spread to other African countries. In 2023, 18 countries reported outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry, with human cases documented in Egypt, Nigeria, and Djibouti. There is limited information on the molecular epidemiology of HPAI H5N1 in Nigeria. We determined the molecular epidemiology and genetic evolution of the virus from 2006 to 2021. We investigated the trend and geographical distribution across Nigeria. The evolutionary history of 61 full-length genomes was performed from 13 countries worldwide, and compared with sequences obtained from the early outbreaks in Nigeria up to 2021. MEGA 11 was used to determine the phylogenetic relationships of H5N1 strains, which revealed close ancestry between sequences in Nigeria and those from other African countries. Clade classification was performed using the subspecies classification tool for Bacterial and Viral Bioinformatics Research Center (BV-BRC) version 3.35.5. H5N1 Clade 2.2 was observed in 2006, with 2.3.2, 2.3.2.1f clades observed afterwards and 2.3.4.4b in 2021. Our findings underscore the need for genomics surveillance to track antigenic variation and clades switching to monitor the epidemiological of the virus and safeguard human and animal health.Impacts Specific variations in the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes of Avian influenza virus are consistent in different geographical regions. H5N1 Clade 2.2 was reported in 2006, with 2.3.2, 2.3.2.1f afterwards and 2.3.4.4b in 2021. Nigeria is an epicentre for avian influenza with three major migratory routes for wild birds transversing the country. It is plausible that the Avian influenza in Northern Nigeria may be linked to wild bird sanctuaries in the region.

PMID:38896308 | DOI:10.1007/s11262-024-02080-9