Category: Statistics

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 May 6. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-33507-3. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Quantifying flood risks through a cascade of hydraulic-cum-hydrodynamic modelling is data-intensive and computationally demanding- a major constraint for economically struggling and data-scarce low and middle-income nations. Under such circumstances, geomorphic flood descriptors (GFDs), that encompass the hidden characteristics of flood propensity may assist in developing a nuanced understanding of flood risk management. In line with this, the present study proposes a novel framework for estimating flood hazard and population exposure by leveraging GFDs and Machine Learning (ML) models over severely flood-prone Ganga basin. The study incorporates SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values in flood hazard modeling to justify the degree of influence of each GFD on the simulated floodplain maps. A set of 15 relevant GFDs derived from high-resolution CartoDEM are forced to five state-of-the-art ML models; AdaBoost, Random Forest, GBDT, XGBoost, and CatBoost, for predicting flood extents and depths. To enumerate the performance of ML models, a set of twelve statistical metrics are considered. Our result indicates a superior performance of XGBoost (κ = 0.72 and KGE = 82%) over other ML models in flood extent and flood depth prediction, resulting in about 47% of the population exposure to high-flood risks. The SHAP summary plots reveal a pre-dominance of Height Above Nearest Drainage during flood depth prediction. The study contributes significantly in comprehending our understanding of catchment characteristics and its influence in the process of sustainable disaster risk reduction. The results obtained from the study provide valuable recommendations for efficient flood management and mitigation strategies, especially over global data-scarce flood-prone basins.

PMID:38709408 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-024-33507-3

Oral Maxillofac Surg. 2024 May 6. doi: 10.1007/s10006-024-01258-7. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This retrospective study aims to assess the three-dimensional dentoskeletal effects and median palatal suture opening pattern in patients undergoing modified surgically assisted maxillary rapid expansion (SARME) without pterygoid plate detachment.

METHODS: Twenty-eight patients submitted to modified SARME between 2009 and 2016 were retrospectively evaluated through cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). Dental and skeletal measurements were taken at three different operative periods (before the expansion – T0; at the end of the activation of the Hyrax device – T1; and six months after the immobilization of the device – T2). Statistical analyses, including ANOVA and Pearson’s correlation coefficient, were performed using SPSS software.

RESULTS: SARME demonstrated significant transverse maxillary expansion (with an average of 6.05 mm) with a greater impact in the anterior region. Dental measurements, including canine and molar distances, exhibited significant changes over the operative periods. Bone measurements (ANS and PNS) presented small but significant alterations, including a slight inferior displacement of ANS during device activation. The nasal floor width increased, followed by a width reduction after immobilization. The median palatal suture predominantly exhibited a Type II (V-shaped) opening.

CONCLUSION: The modified SARME presented a transversal direction increase and a super-lower skeletal displacement, with the anterior region being more affected than the posterior region. There was no change in the anteroposterior direction of the maxilla. Additionally, there was an increase in the linear dental measurements and a decrease in the angular measurement, with a positive correlation between the amount of posterior bone expansion and molar expansion as a result of the treatment in the analyzed period.

PMID:38709398 | DOI:10.1007/s10006-024-01258-7

J Math Biol. 2024 May 6;89(1):1. doi: 10.1007/s00285-024-02100-0.

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we introduce the notion of practically susceptible population, which is a fraction of the biologically susceptible population. Assuming that the fraction depends on the severity of the epidemic and the public’s level of precaution (as a response of the public to the epidemic), we propose a general framework model with the response level evolving with the epidemic. We firstly verify the well-posedness and confirm the disease’s eventual vanishing for the framework model under the assumption that the basic reproduction number $R_0<1$ . For $R_0>1$ , we study how the behavioural response evolves with epidemics and how such an evolution impacts the disease dynamics. More specifically, when the precaution level is taken to be the instantaneous best response function in literature, we show that the endemic dynamic is convergence to the endemic equilibrium; while when the precaution level is the delayed best response, the endemic dynamic can be either convergence to the endemic equilibrium, or convergence to a positive periodic solution. Our derivation offers a justification/explanation for the best response used in some literature. By replacing “adopting the best response” with “adapting toward the best response”, we also explore the adaptive long-term dynamics.

PMID:38709376 | DOI:10.1007/s00285-024-02100-0

J Prim Care Community Health. 2024 Jan-Dec;15:21501319241251941. doi: 10.1177/21501319241251941.

ABSTRACT

In this era in which the vast majority of the global population have developed COVID-19 infection and/or got vaccinated against it, identification of the late disorders as the vaccines’ side effect or long-COVID manifestation seems essential. This study included the vaccinated individuals of 4 different vaccine regimens including inactivated virus-based, subunit protein, and adenovirus-based vaccines in a follow-up schedule 6-month post the booster shot. All the documented vaccine adverse events were thoroughly assessed considering the cases’ medical history by Adverse Events Committee of Pasteur Institute of Iran. Totally 329 individuals who got 3 doses of vaccination were followed 6 months after the booster shots among whom 41 (12.4%) cases with the mean age of 40.9 ± 10.48 years had a type of disorder. Gynecological and osteoarticular involvements were the most common recorded disorders of which 73.1% were possibly linked to vaccination outcomes and the rest were affected by both long-COVID-19 and vaccination. Notably, the average time of symptoms persistence was 155 ± 10.4 days. This study has the advantage of long-term follow-up which presents various forms of late events in each episode of COVID-19 infection and vaccination. About 26.8% of people with persistent complications suffered from both long-COVOD/ vaccination in whom the differentiation between the vaccine side effect and long-COVID manifestation was quite challenging. Long-term follow-up studies in large population seems essential to outline the role of long-COVID and vaccination regarding persistent complications.

PMID:38708693 | DOI:10.1177/21501319241251941

Inquiry. 2024 Jan-Dec;61:469580241252567. doi: 10.1177/00469580241252567.

ABSTRACT

Foreign-born people have been found to be less satisfied with health care than native populations across countries. However, studies on differences in satisfaction with treatment between different foreign-born groups are lacking. This study explores differences in satisfaction with primary health care between the foreign-born population from different regions of origins and the general population of Finland. The study uses survey data on foreign-born population (n = 2708) and general population (n = 6671) living in Finland who report using health services. Satisfaction with experienced respect for privacy during treatment, benefit of treatment and smoothness of treatment are predicted by region of origin using logistic regression. Almost all foreign-born groups were less likely to consider treatment appointments beneficial as compared to the general population. Some foreign-born groups (people from Southeast Asia and South and Central Asia) were more satisfied with smoothness of care compared to general population. People from East Asia were less likely than the general population to consider that their privacy had been respected during the examinations and treatment. While we made the positive finding of high overall satisfaction with treatment, we also found important differences between groups. In particular, appointments were found less useful among the foreign-born population. Perceived unusefulness of treatment might lead to underuse of health care, which might result in accumulation of untreated health problems. The results point toward potential development points in the health care system. Addressing these issues might help decrease health disparities between population groups.

PMID:38708687 | DOI:10.1177/00469580241252567

Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2024 May 6. doi: 10.1089/fpd.2023.0179. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infects roughly 20 million people worldwide, causing self-limiting acute hepatic disease that can evolve into a chronic course. HEV-3, HEV-4, and HEV-7 genotypes are zoonotic and transmitted to humans by consuming raw or undercooked meat. Here, we developed an indirect ELISA based on the recombinant HEV-3 capsid and performed a seroprevalence study on domestic swine in northeastern Brazil. Our in-house ELISA was initially validated using a subset of 79 sera characterized by concordant results for two distinct commercial ELISA kits. Our ELISA exhibited excellent sensitivity (94%) and specificity (100%), with an area under the curve of 0.99 Further testing, including 212 swine sera, revealed a seroprevalence of 57.5% (95% confidence interval, 50.6-64.3%). Our findings indicate that the novel ELISA test could accurately detect specific anti-HEV antibodies in domestic pigs and should be further validated in humans and other mammals.

PMID:38708682 | DOI:10.1089/fpd.2023.0179

Pharm Stat. 2024 May 6. doi: 10.1002/pst.2393. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

What can be considered an appropriate statistical method for the primary analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) with a time-to-event endpoint when we anticipate non-proportional hazards owing to a delayed effect? This question has been the subject of much recent debate. The standard approach is a log-rank test and/or a Cox proportional hazards model. Alternative methods have been explored in the statistical literature, such as weighted log-rank tests and tests based on the Restricted Mean Survival Time (RMST). While weighted log-rank tests can achieve high power compared to the standard log-rank test, some choices of weights may lead to type-I error inflation under particular conditions. In addition, they are not linked to a mathematically unambiguous summary measure. Test statistics based on the RMST, on the other hand, allow one to investigate the average difference between two survival curves up to a pre-specified time point $\tau$ -a mathematically unambiguous summary measure. However, by emphasizing differences prior to $\tau$ , such test statistics may not fully capture the benefit of a new treatment in terms of long-term survival. In this article, we introduce a graphical approach for direct comparison of weighted log-rank tests and tests based on the RMST. This new perspective allows a more informed choice of the analysis method, going beyond power and type I error comparison.

PMID:38708672 | DOI:10.1002/pst.2393

Circ Heart Fail. 2024 May 6:e010826. doi: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.123.010826. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: While tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) captures the predominant longitudinal motion of the right ventricle (RV), it does not account for ventricular morphology and radial motion changes in various forms of pulmonary hypertension. This study aims to account for both longitudinal and radial motions by dividing TAPSE by RV area and to assess its clinical significance.

METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 71 subjects with New York Heart Association class II to III dyspnea who underwent echocardiogram and invasive cardiopulmonary exercise testing (which defined 4 hemodynamic groups: control, isolated postcapillary pulmonary hypertension, combined postcapillary pulmonary hypertension, and pulmonary arterial hypertension). On the echocardiogram, TAPSE was divided by RV area in diastole (TAPSE/RVA-D) and systole (TAPSE/RVA-S). Analyses included correlations (Pearson and linear regression), receiver operating characteristic, and survival curves.

RESULTS: On linear regression analysis, TAPSE/RVA metrics (versus TAPSE) had a stronger correlation with pulmonary artery compliance (r=0.48-0.54 versus 0.38) and peak VO₂ percentage predicted (0.23-0.30 versus 0.18). Based on the receiver operating characteristic analysis, pulmonary artery compliance ≥3 mL/mm Hg was identified by TAPSE/RVA-D with an under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 (optimal cutoff ≥1.1) and by TAPSE/RVA-S with an AUC of 0.83 (optimal cutoff ≥1.5), but by TAPSE with only an AUC of 0.67. Similarly, to identify peak VO₂ <50% predicted, AUC of 0.66 for TAPSE/RVA-D and AUC of 0.65 for TAPSE/RVA-S. Death or cardiovascular hospitalization at 12 months was associated with TAPSE/RVA-D ≥1.1 (HR, 0.38 [95% CI, 0.11-0.56]) and TAPSE/RVA-S ≥1.5 (HR, 0.44 [95% CI, 0.16-0.78]), while TAPSE was not associated with adverse outcomes (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.53-1.94]). Among 31 subjects with available cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, RV ejection fraction was better correlated with novel metrics (TAPSE/RVA-D r=0.378 and TAPSE/RVA-S r=0.328) than TAPSE (r=0.082).

CONCLUSIONS: In a broad cohort with suspected pulmonary hypertension, TAPSE divided by RV area was superior to TAPSE alone in correlations with pulmonary compliance and exercise capacity. As a prognostic marker of right heart function, TAPSE/RVA-D <1.1 and TAPSE/RVA-S <1.5 predicted adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

PMID:38708598 | DOI:10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.123.010826

JDR Clin Trans Res. 2024 May 6:23800844241247485. doi: 10.1177/23800844241247485. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Dietary factors may play an important role in periodontal health. However, current evidence from observational studies remains inconclusive.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the causal relationships between dietary exposures and periodontal disease risks using Mendelian randomization analysis.

METHODS: Large-scale genome-wide association study summary statistics for 20 dietary factors were obtained from the MRC-IEU consortium. Multivariable and univariable 2-sample Mendelian randomization analyses were performed to assess the causal effects of each dietary exposure on 6 periodontal outcomes, including gingivitis and periodontitis.

RESULTS: Genetically predicted higher dried fruit intake was significantly associated with reduced risks of acute gingivitis (odds ratio [OR]: 0.02; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.00-0.42; P = 0.01) and bleeding gums (OR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93-0.99; P = 0.01). Higher fresh fruit and water intake showed protective effects against chronic gingivitis (OR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.04-0.91; P = 0.04 and OR: 0.15; 95% CI: 0.04-0.53; P = 0.00) and bleeding gums (OR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.92-0.981; P = 0.00 and OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96-0.99; P = 0.02). Alcohol intake frequency and processed meat intake were risk factors for bleeding gums (OR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.02; P = 0.01 and OR: 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01-1.08; P = 0.00) and painful gums (OR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.01; P = 0.00 and OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01-1.03; P = 0.00). Most of the causal relationships between genetic predisposition to the specified dietary factors and periodontal diseases remained statistically significant (P < 0.05) after adjusting for genetic risks associated with dentures, smoking, and type 2 diabetes in multivariable Mendelian randomization models.

CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest potential protective effects of higher fruit and water intake against gingivitis and other periodontal problems, while alcohol and processed meat intake may increase the risks of periodontal disease. Our study provides preliminary causal evidence on the effects of diet on periodontal health and could inform prevention strategies targeting dietary habits to improve oral health.

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT: This study suggests that fruit and water intake may protect against periodontal disease, while alcohol and processed meats increase risk, informing dietary guidelines to improve oral health.

PMID:38708597 | DOI:10.1177/23800844241247485

J Clin Apher. 2024 Jun;39(3):e22119. doi: 10.1002/jca.22119.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The use of therapeutic apheresis (TA) either as stand-alone or adjunctive treatment in kidney transplantation has increased over the years to become a leading indication. This study shows recent trends in indications for TA related to kidney transplantation, adverse events, and patient outcome in this cohort.

METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort review of adults who received TA for kidney transplant-related indications from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2022, at the University of Virginia Medical Centre, Charlottesville, VA, USA. Data extracted include basic demographics, indication for apheresis, number of procedures, procedure characteristics, procedure-related adverse events (complications), and serum ionized calcium and serum creatinine. Data were analyzed using statistical package for social sciences (SPSS 2022 IBM Inc).

RESULTS: Data from a total of 131 patients who received 860 TA procedures were analyzed. Indications for TA were antibody-mediated rejection (65.5%), recurrent focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (15%), thrombotic microangiopathy (5%), desensitization for ABO incompatibility (4.5%) and for HLA-incompatibility (4.5%), and recurrent IgA nephropathy (1%). Some adverse events were encountered in 16.7% of the procedures and include hypocalcemia (7%), vascular access malfunction (0.7%), hypotension (1.2%), arrhythmia (0.6%), and depletion coagulopathy (0.6%). The overall case mortality rate was 8.4% over the 6-year period. There was one death recorded on machine during TA resulting in a procedure-mortality rate of 0.12%.

CONCLUSION: Antibody-mediated rejection was the most common indication for TA related to kidney transplantation. Adverse events were minor and patient survival over the time was within usual limits.

PMID:38708577 | DOI:10.1002/jca.22119