Category: Statistics

Environ Monit Assess. 2023 Oct 24;195(11):1366. doi: 10.1007/s10661-023-11916-0.

ABSTRACT

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a computational hydrological model extensively utilised for developing sustainable strategies and viable approaches for prudent management of water resources. The central emphasis of this study is on the utilisation of SWAT model along with SWAT-CUP (SWAT calibration toolbox) to simulate streamflow in the upper Jhelum basin, the North West Himalayas, for a period of 20 years from 2000 to 2019. The global sensitivity analysis algorithm, Sequential Uncertainty Fitting 2 (SUFI-2) of SWAT-CUP, is used for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The optimised parameter set estimated by SUFI-2 constitutes 11 parameters that are found to be sensitive with soil conservation service (SCS) curve number (CN) being the most influential parameter followed by snowmelt base temperature. Autocorrelation analysis using the autocorrelation function was conducted on the temperature and precipitation time series data, followed by a pre-whitening procedure to remove any autocorrelation effects. Subsequently, the modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was applied to examine trends in the annual temperature and precipitation data. The results indicated statistically significant positive trends in both datasets on an annual scale. The results for the calibration period (2003-2014) for monthly simulation displayed good model performance at three gauging stations, Rambiara, Sangam and Ram Munshi Bagh with R² values of 0.83, 0.847, 0.829, P factor values of 0.73, 0.76, 0.75 and R factor values of 0.61, 0.58, 0.63, respectively. The validation results for monthly simulation for the 2015-2019 period showed good model agreement with R² values of 0.817, 0.853, and 0.836, P factor values of 0.76, 0.8, and 0.75 and R factor values of 0.62, 0.53, and 0.65, respectively. The study concludes that the SWAT hydrological model can perform satisfactorily in high mountainous catchments and can be employed to analyse the impact of land use-land cover changes and the effect of climate variation on streamflow dynamics.

PMID:37874405 | DOI:10.1007/s10661-023-11916-0

Graefes Arch Clin Exp Ophthalmol. 2023 Oct 24. doi: 10.1007/s00417-023-06220-z. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To determine whether non-invasive measurements of the nailfold capillaries (NCs) are associated with the presence and severity of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS: Eighty-three eyes of 83 patients with type 2 diabetes were enrolled. Sixty-three age-matched non-diabetic subjects served as controls. Diabetic patients were classified by the severity of their DR: non-DR (NDR), non-proliferative DR (NPDR), and proliferative DR (PDR). We used nailfold capillaroscopy to measure NC parameters, including number, length, width, and turbidity.

RESULTS: Four NC parameters in the diabetic patients were significantly lower than in the controls (all P < 0.001). There was a statistically significant decrease in the NC parameters along with the increasing severity of DR (number: P = 0.02; all others: P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis revealed that combining the systemic characteristics of age, sex, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hemoglobin A1c level, and history of hypertension and dyslipidemia could indicate the presence of DR and PDR (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.81, P = 0.006; AUC = 0.87, P = 0.001, respectively). Furthermore, the discriminative power of DR was significantly improved (P = 0.03) by adding NC length to the systemic findings (AUC = 0.89, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: NC measurement is a simple and non-invasive way to assess the risk of DR and its severity.

PMID:37874367 | DOI:10.1007/s00417-023-06220-z

Ophthalmologie. 2023 Oct 24. doi: 10.1007/s00347-023-01942-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Glaucoma is a widespread ophthalmological disease. Knowledge about the spread of the disease in the population is necessary with respect to further questions on comorbidities, risk factors and the provision of care.

OBJECTIVE: An analysis of the use of glaucoma medications and the prevalence of glaucoma in an urban adult population was carried out.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Hamburg City Health Study (HCHS) is a prospective, long-term, population-based cohort study that includes a random sample of 45,000 participants aged between 45 and 79 years from the general population of Hamburg, Germany. Apart from various medical parameters, data include premedication and the medical history of the participants. The use of antiglaucomatous medication among the first 10,000 study participants was analyzed and the prevalence of glaucoma was estimated according to the use of medications as well as by the self-reported history of glaucoma. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression analysis were performed to analyze the data and to calculate correlations by age and gender.

RESULTS: In the study population 319 persons were on medication to lower the intraocular pressure (IOP, mean age 67.1 years, SD = 7.57 years), which is equivalent to an estimated prevalence of 3.35% (95% confidence interval, CI 3.00-3.70%). A positive correlation was observed between age and the use of IOP-lowering medication, which is statistically highly significant (p = < 0.001). The analysis by gender showed a slightly higher prevalence among women, which was not statistically significant. The estimated prevalence according to glaucoma medication and history were only partly congruent.

DISCUSSION: This estimated prevalence of glaucoma is comparable to other epidemiological studies. The study results cover not only patients with manifest glaucoma but also persons who were treated for ocular hypertension. The inconsistency between the prevalence of glaucoma medication and the diagnosis of glaucoma can be explained by different treatment strategies and also by information deficits.

PMID:37874364 | DOI:10.1007/s00347-023-01942-1

Clin Cancer Res. 2023 Oct 24. doi: 10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-23-0445. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: High numbers of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) are linked to better survival in cancer patients. TRM(CD8+CD103+) are recognized as a key player of anti-cancer immune response. To assess TRM in primary, metastatic and recurrent HNSCC we developed a tissue microarray (TMA) and used multiplex immunohistochemistry (MxIHC).

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: 379 HNSCC cases from Southampton Hospitals (2000-2016) with material of primary tumors were retrieved. Of these, 105 cases had lymph node metastases and 82 recurrences. A TMA was generated with triplicate cores for each sample. MxIHC with a stain and strip approach was performed using CD8, CD103, TIM3. Scanned slides were analyzed (digital image analysis) and quality checked (QC).

RESULTS: After QC, 194 primary tumors, 76 lymph node metastases and 65 recurrences were evaluable. Alcohol drinking was statistically significantly correlated with a reduction of TRM cells in primary tumors (no drinker vs. heavy drinker: p = 0.0036). The known survival benefit of TRM infiltration in primary tumors was not found for lymph node metastasis. In recurrences a high TRM number led to a favorable outcome after 12 months. The checkpoint molecule TIM3, was expressed significantly higher on TRM and non-TRM cells in the lymph node compared to primary tumors (p < 0.0001), which was also seen in recurrences (p 0.0134, p=0.0007, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS: We confirm the prognostic impact of TIL in primary tumors and in recurrences. TRM cell density in lymph node metastases was not linked to outcome. The role of TIM3, as a therapeutic target remains to be defined.

PMID:37874322 | DOI:10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-23-0445

Cutan Ocul Toxicol. 2023 Oct 24:1-5. doi: 10.1080/15569527.2023.2268162. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To compare the thickness of the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) and macular ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GC-IPL) in smoker and nonsmoker diabetics without diabetic retinopathy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with diabetes were divided into two groups according to their smoking status: Group 1 consisted of 38 smoker diabetics who had chronically smoked more than 20 cigarettes per day for more than five years; Group 2 consisted of 38 nonsmoker diabetics. After a detailed ophthalmologic examination, the mean and regional (superior, supratemporal, inferior, inferotemporal, temporal, nasal, superonasal, and inferonasal) RNFL and GC-IPL thicknesses were measured with spectral-domain optic coherence tomography (SD-OCT) and compared between groups.

RESULTS: The mean age was 54.7 ± 10.5 and 51.2 ± 9.7 years in the smoker and nonsmoker groups, respectively (p = 0.14). Gender, duration of diabetes, and the mean axial length were similar between groups (p:0.43, p:0.54, p: 0.52, respectively). Mean RNFL thickness was 89.1 ± 8.0 µm in the smoker group and 93.4 ± 7.0 µm in the nonsmoker group, and it was significantly thinner in the smoker group (p = 0.01). The temporal RNFL thickness in the smoker group was thinner than in the nonsmoker group (p = 0.02). There was no difference in superior, inferior, and nasal RNFL thicknesses between the groups (p = 0.31, p = 0.12, p = 0.39, respectively). The mean macular GC-IPL thickness of the smoker and nonsmoker groups was 78.53 ± 15.74 µm and 83.08 ± 5.85 µm, respectively (p = 0.09). Superior, superonasal, inferonasal, inferior, inferotemporal, and superotemporal quadrant GC-IPL thicknesses were similar between the groups (p = 0.07, p = 0.60, p = 0.55, p = 0.77, p = 0.71, p = 0.08, respectively). The groups showed no difference in minimum GC-IPL thickness (p = 0.43). There was a significant negative correlation between smoking exposure and mean, inferior quadrant RNFL thicknesses in the smoker group (p = 0.04, r= -0.32, and p = 0.01, r= -0.39, respectively).

CONCLUSION: Mean RNFL thickness was significantly thinner in smoker diabetics. Although not statistically significant, especially mean, superior, and superotemporal GC-IPL was thinner in smoker diabetics. The results suggest a potential association between the coexistence of diabetes and smoking with alterations in RNFL and GC-IPL thickness.

PMID:37874321 | DOI:10.1080/15569527.2023.2268162

Asian Pac J Allergy Immunol. 2023 Oct 23. doi: 10.12932/AP-070823-1669. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Intranasal corticosteroid (INCS) has a beneficial effect on ocular symptoms in allergic rhinitis (AR). To our knowledge, the cost-effectiveness of available INCS for AR with ocular symptoms is yet to be demonstrated.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of INCSs including Budesonide (BANS), Mometasone furoate (MFNS), Triamcinolone (TANS), and Fluticasone furoate (FFNS) on ocular symptoms associated with AR in the Thai context.

METHODS: The percentage of effectiveness in improving total ocular symptoms score (TOSS) was derived from the result of a meta-analysis that estimated the SMD of each INCS treatment compared to placebo as clinical input parameters. A cost-effectiveness analysis based on a decision-tree model to assess one-year costs and outcomes from a Thai societal perspective. The outcomes were to compare incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were also conducted to capture parameter uncertainties.

RESULTS: 13 eligible RCTs with a total of 3,722 patients with SAR were included in the analysis. The percentage of effectiveness of FFNS, MFNS, TANS, and BANS was 59.89%, 45.60%, 24.89%, and 16.00%, respectively. The ICER of FFNS, MFNS, and TANS is THB-6,539.92, 4,593.83, and 1,401.24 compared to BANS. CECA result showed the probability of using FFNS is considered cost-effective in 87.50% of cases from zero value followed by MFNS (0.80%), TANS (5.40%), and BANS (6.30%). With a threshold greater than THB20,000, FFNS is considered a cost-effective strategy.

CONCLUSIONS: FFNS is a cost-effective option compared to alternative INCSs in Thailand for treating AR with ocular symptoms.

PMID:37874315 | DOI:10.12932/AP-070823-1669

Proc Inst Mech Eng H. 2023 Oct 24:9544119231206456. doi: 10.1177/09544119231206456. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Missing values often affect the data utilization in epidemiological survey. In this study, according to the cut-off point value of the medical diagnostic standard of fasting blood glucose for diabetes, we divide fasting blood glucose test data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) of Shandong province in 2009 into two classes: the normal and the abnormal. Accordingly, for missing fasting blood glucose values, we propose a two-stage prediction filling method with optimized support vector technologies competitively by particle swarm optimization (PSO) or grey wolf optimizer (GWO), which is to first predict the class of the missing data with support vector machine (SVM) in the first stage and then predict the missing value with support vector regression (SVR) within the predicted class in the second stage. In addition, we use the LIBSVM as a gold standard to train both SVM and SVR in different stages. For two kinds of competitive optimizers in stages, in the first stage GWO has the highest classification accuracy (91.1%), and in the second stage PSO has the smallest in-class mean absolute error (0.48). So, GWO-SVM-PSO-SVR is determined as the optimal model and a predicted value with it serves as a fill value. The comparison results of the models in empirical analysis also show that it outdoes any of the other filling models in terms of mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. In addition, the sensitivity analysis shows that it presents high tolerance as the sample size changes and has a good stability.

PMID:37873735 | DOI:10.1177/09544119231206456

Zhonghua Wei Zhong Bing Ji Jiu Yi Xue. 2023 Oct;35(10):1093-1098. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20230614-00441.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictive value of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) and modified early warning score (MEWS) in evaluating the prognosis of patients in intensive care unit (ICU) of secondary hospitals, and to provide guidance for clinical application.

METHODS: The clinical data of adult critical patients admitted to the ICU of Wanzhou District First People’s Hospital from October 2022 to April 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the clinical outcome of ICU, the patients were divided into improvement group and death group. The general information, blood routine, heart, liver and kidney function indicators, coagulation indicators, blood gas analysis, APACHE II score, SOFA score, qSOFA score, MEWS score at the time of admission to the ICU, the number of cases of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and continuous blood purification (CBP) were compared between the two groups. Univariate analysis was performed, and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the related factors of death. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to analyze the predictive value of the four scores in ICU patients.

RESULTS: A total of 126 patients were included, of which 45 patients died in the ICU and 81 patients improved and transferred out. Univariate analysis of death-related critically ill patients showed that procalcitonin (PCT), serum creatinine (SCr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), albumin (ALB), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial prothrombin time (APTT), D-dimer, pH value, HCO₃^–, blood lactic acid (Lac), number of patients treated with IMV and CBP, APACHE II score, SOFA score, qSOFA score and MEWS score were significantly different between the two groups (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the APACHE II score [odds ratio (OR) = 1.115, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.025-1.213, P = 0.011], SOFA score (OR = 1.204, 95%CI was 1.037-1.398, P = 0.015), MEWS score (OR = 1.464, 95%CI was 1.102-1.946, P = 0.009), and APTT (OR = 1.081, 95%CI was 1.015-1.152, P = 0.016) were independent risk factors affecting the mortality of critically ill patients in the ICU. ROC curve analysis showed that APACHE II, SOFA, qSOFA, and MEWS scores could predict the prognosis of critically ill ICU patients, among which SOFA score had the strongest predictive effect, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.808. There was a statistically significant difference in the time required for the four scores (F = 117.333, P < 0.001), among which the MEWS scoring required the shortest time [(1.03±0.39) minutes], and the APACHE II scoring required the longest time [(2.81±1.04) minutes].

CONCLUSIONS: APACHE II, SOFA, qSOFA, and MEWS scores can be used to assess the severity of critically ill patients and predict in-hospital mortality. The SOFA score is superior to other scores in predicting severity. The MEWS is preferred because its assessment time is shortest. Early warning score can help secondary hospitals to detect potentially critical patients early and provide help for clinical rapid urgent emergency decision-making.

PMID:37873716 | DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20230614-00441

Zhonghua Wei Zhong Bing Ji Jiu Yi Xue. 2023 Oct;35(10):1080-1084. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20230404-00241.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictive value of diaphragmatic thickening fraction (DTF) combined with Medical Research Council-score (MRC score) on the outcome of weaning from mechanical ventilation in ICU-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) patients.

METHODS: A retrospective case-control study was conducted. The clinical data of mechanically ventilated patients with an MRC score of less than 48 admitted to the department of critical care medicine of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College from January 2022 to March 2023 were collected, including general information, ultrasound indicators, MRC scores, main clinical outcomes, and weaning outcomes. Patients were divided into successful weaning group and failed weaning group according to whether the patient could maintain effective autonomous breathing for at least 48 hours without using an invasive or non-invasive ventilator. The clinical data of the two groups were compared. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was plotted to analyze the predictive value of DTF and MRC score alone or in combination for successful weaning of patients.

RESULTS: A total of 87 patients were enrolled, of which 58 were successful weaning and 29 were failed weaning. There were no statistically significant differences in general data such as gender, age, underlying disease, heart rate (HR), mean arterial pressure (MAP), pH value, blood lactic acid (Lac), oxygenation index (PaO₂/FiO₂), and severity scores between the two groups. Compared with the failed weaning group, the DTF and MRC scores of patients in the successful weaning group were significantly increased [DTF: (26.02±2.68)% vs. (22.79±5.40)%, MRC score: 38.90±2.78 vs. 33.24±3.78, both P < 0.05]. The duration of mechanical ventilation and the length of ICU stay of patients in the successful weaning group were significantly shorter than those in the failed weaning group [duration of mechanical ventilation (hours): 102.21±32.60 vs. 113.14±41.34, length of ICU stay (days): 6.48±2.18 vs. 10.11±4.01, both P < 0.05], and the re-intubation rate and ICU hospitalization cost were significantly lowered [re-intubation rate: 6.90% (4/58) vs. 27.59% (8/29), ICU hospitalization cost (10 000 RMB): 4.99±0.87 vs. 7.85±2.45, both P < 0.05]. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of DTF and MRC score for predicting successful weaning in ICU-AW mechanical ventilation patients was 0.839 [95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.746-0.931] and 0.799 (95%CI was 0.701-0.899), respectively. Using DTF ≥ 25.01% as the optimal cut-off value to predict successful weaning, the sensitivity was 82.76%, and the specificity was 72.41%. Predicting successful weaning based on an optimal cut-off value of MRC score of ≥ 35.50 had a sensitivity of 79.31% and a specificity of 70.69%. Based on the DTF ≥ 25.01% combined with MRC score ≥ 35.50, it was predicted that the weaning would be successful, with an AUC of 0.887 (95%CI was 0.812-0.962), sensitivity increased to 89.70%, and specificity increased to 79.30%.

CONCLUSIONS: The DTF and MRC score have good guiding value for the selection of weaning timing and predicting the weaning outcomes in ICU-AW patients. Compared with independent DTF and MRC score, the combination of DTF and MRC score improves the predictive value of successful weaning in ICU-AW patients.

PMID:37873714 | DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20230404-00241

Zhonghua Wei Zhong Bing Ji Jiu Yi Xue. 2023 Oct;35(10):1074-1079. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20230209-00077.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore lung ultrasound radiomics features which related to extravascular lung water index (EVLWI), and to predict EVLWI in critically ill patients based on lung ultrasound radiomics combined with machine learning and validate its effectiveness.

METHODS: A retrospective case-control study was conducted. The lung ultrasound videos and pulse indicated continuous cardiac output (PiCCO) monitoring results of critically ill patients admitted to the department of critical care medicine of the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from November 2021 to October 2022 were collected, and randomly divided into training set and validation set at 8:2. The corresponding images from lung ultrasound videos were obtained to extract radiomics features. The EVLWI measured by PiCCO was regarded as the “gold standard”, and the radiomics features of training set was filtered through statistical analysis and LASSO algorithm. Eight machine learning models were trained using filtered radiomics features including random forest (RF), extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), decision tree (DT), Naive Bayes (NB), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and Logistic regression (LR). Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was plotted to evaluate the predictive performance of models on EVLWI in the validation set.

RESULTS: A total of 151 samples from 30 patients were enrolled (including 906 lung ultrasound videos and 151 PiCCO monitoring results), 120 in the training set, and 31 in the validation set. There were no statistically significant differences in main baseline data including gender, age, body mass index (BMI), mean arterial pressure (MAP), central venous pressure (CVP), heart rate (HR), cardiac index (CI), cardiac function index (CFI), stroke volume index (SVI), global end diastolic volume index (GEDVI), systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI), pulmonary vascular permeability index (PVPI) and EVLWI. The overall EVLWI range in 151 PiCCO monitoring results was 3.7-25.6 mL/kg. Layered analysis showed that both datasets had EVLWI in the 7-15 mL/kg interval, and there was no statistically significant difference in EVLWI distribution. Two radiomics features were selected by using LASSO algorithm, namely grayscale non-uniformity (weight was -0.006 464) and complexity (weight was -0.167 583), and they were used for modeling. ROC curve analysis showed that the MLP model had better predictive performance. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the prediction validation set EVLWI was higher than that of RF, XGBoost, DT, KNN, LR, SVM, NB models (0.682 vs. 0.658, 0.657, 0.614, 0.608, 0.596, 0.557, 0.472).

CONCLUSIONS: The gray level non-uniformity and complexity of lung ultrasound were the most correlated radiomics features with EVLWI monitored by PiCCO. The MLP model based on gray level non-uniformity and complexity of lung ultrasound can be used for semi-quantitative prediction of EVLWI in critically ill patients.

PMID:37873713 | DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20230209-00077