Category: Statistics

Health Aff (Millwood). 2023 Aug;42(8):1173-1181. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2022.01575.

ABSTRACT

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) reduces food insecurity but is underused among many households. To increase SNAP participation, twenty-one states have adopted the standard medical deduction (SMD), which simplifies administrative requirements for eligible households (those with older adults or people with disabilities). However, to offset the costs of the SMD, states have reduced SNAP benefits elsewhere, raising concerns of negative spillover effects. Using national data from the period 2004-19 and a fixed-effects estimator, we found that the SMD was associated with increased SNAP participation among SMD-eligible households, in terms of aggregate household counts (20 percent) and as a share of households receiving SNAP (5 percentage points). Moreover, estimated annual SNAP benefits per state increased for SMD-eligible households but decreased (although not statistically significantly) for ineligible households. Offsetting SNAP costs may have benefited households with older adults and households with people with disabilities at the expense of others.

PMID:37549333 | DOI:10.1377/hlthaff.2022.01575

Health Aff (Millwood). 2023 Aug;42(8):1152-1161. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2022.01517.

ABSTRACT

There is an urgent need to improve maternal and neonatal health outcomes and decrease their racial disparities in the US. Prenatal nurse home visiting programs could help achieve this by increasing the use and quality of prenatal care and facilitating healthy behaviors during pregnancy. We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 5,670 Medicaid-eligible pregnant people in South Carolina to evaluate how a nurse home visiting program affected prenatal health care and health outcomes. We compared outcomes between the treatment and control groups and found little evidence of statistically significant differences in the intensity of prenatal care use, receipt of guideline-based prenatal care services, other health care use, or gestational weight gain. Nor did we find treatment effects in subgroup analyses of socially vulnerable participants (46.9 percent of the sample) or non-Hispanic Black participants (52.0 percent of the sample). Compared with the broader Medicaid population, our trial participants had more health and social risk factors, more engagement with prenatal care, and similar pregnancy outcomes. Delivering intensive nurse home visiting programs to the general Medicaid population might not be an efficient method to improve prenatal care for those who need the most support during pregnancy.

PMID:37549328 | DOI:10.1377/hlthaff.2022.01517

J Antimicrob Chemother. 2023 Aug 7:dkad241. doi: 10.1093/jac/dkad241. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Dapagliflozin has been proposed as a potential treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by reducing cytokine production and inflammation. However, there are limited data on its effectiveness. We aimed to evaluate the impact of dapagliflozin on COVID-19 severity (including hospitalization risk, ICU admission, in-hospital death and progression to severe COVID-19) and its potential on susceptibility to COVID-19 infection.

METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study. For aim 1, we assessed COVID-19 severity in cases (positive PCR patients requiring hospitalization) and matched controls (negative PCR patients or positive PCR patients not requiring hospitalization). For aim 2, we compared positive PCR cases (hospitalized and non-hospitalized) with controls. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated using a generalized linear mixed model.

RESULTS: We analysed 86 602 subjects: 3060 were hospitalized cases, 26 757 were non-hospitalized cases and 56 785 were controls. Among the hospitalized COVID-19 patients, 228 were admitted to the ICU and 413 died. Dapagliflozin had no effect on the risk of hospitalization (aOR 0.98; 95% CI 0.65-1.48; P = 0.915), ICU admissions (aOR 1.21; 95% CI 0.34-4.25; P = 0.767) or in-hospital death (aOR 1.33; 95% CI 0.53-3.30; P = 0.543). Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of progression to severe COVID-19 by 35%, but this was not statistically significant (aOR 0.65; 95% CI 0.40-1.06; P = 0.086). Dapagliflozin was associated with a 30% increased risk of susceptibility to COVID-19 infection (aOR 1.31; 95% CI 1.05-1.62; P = 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS: Use of dapagliflozin prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with an increased risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, mortality or progression to severe COVID-19. However, it was associated with an increased risk of susceptibility to COVID-19 infection.

PMID:37549309 | DOI:10.1093/jac/dkad241

Pediatr Emerg Care. 2023 Aug 8. doi: 10.1097/PEC.0000000000003023. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Penicillin or amoxicillin are the recommended treatments for the most common pediatric bacterial illnesses. Allergies to penicillin are commonly reported among children but rarely true. We evaluated the impact of reported penicillin allergies on broad-spectrum antibiotic use overall and for the treatment of common respiratory infections among treat-and-release pediatric emergency department (ED) visits.

METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of pediatric patients receiving antibiotics during a treat-and-release visit at a large, pediatric ED in the northeast from 2014 to 2016. Study exposure was a reported allergy to penicillin in the electronic medical record. Study outcomes were the selection of broad-spectrum antibiotics and alternative (second-line) antibiotic therapy for the treatment of acute otitis media (AOM) and group A streptococcus (GAS) pharyngitis. We used unadjusted and adjusted generalized estimating equation models to analyze the impact of reported penicillin allergies on the selection of broad-spectrum antibiotics. We used unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models to determine the probability of children with a documented penicillin allergy receiving alternative antibiotic treatments for AOM and GAS.

RESULTS: Among 12,987 pediatric patients, 810 (6.2%) had a documented penicillin allergy. Penicillin allergies increased the odds of children receiving a broad spectrum versus narrow spectrum antibiotic (adjusted odds ratio, 13.55; 95% confidence interval (CI), 11.34-16.18). In our adjusted logistic regression model, the probability of children with a documented penicillin allergy receiving alternative antibiotic treatment for AOM was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94-0.99) and for GAS was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.92-0.99).

CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic stewardship efforts in pediatric EDs may consider the delabeling of penicillin allergies particularly among children receiving antibiotics for an acute respiratory infection as a target for intervention.

PMID:37549307 | DOI:10.1097/PEC.0000000000003023

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Aug 15;120(33):e2203828120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2203828120. Epub 2023 Aug 7.

ABSTRACT

Cellular omics such as single-cell genomics, proteomics, and microbiomics allow the characterization of tissue and microbial community composition, which can be compared between conditions to identify biological drivers. This strategy has been critical to revealing markers of disease progression, such as cancer and pathogen infection. A dedicated statistical method for differential variability analysis is lacking for cellular omics data, and existing methods for differential composition analysis do not model some compositional data properties, suggesting there is room to improve model performance. Here, we introduce sccomp, a method for differential composition and variability analyses that jointly models data count distribution, compositionality, group-specific variability, and proportion mean-variability association, being aware of outliers. sccomp provides a comprehensive analysis framework that offers realistic data simulation and cross-study knowledge transfer. Here, we demonstrate that mean-variability association is ubiquitous across technologies, highlighting the inadequacy of the very popular Dirichlet-multinomial distribution. We show that sccomp accurately fits experimental data, significantly improving performance over state-of-the-art algorithms. Using sccomp, we identified differential constraints and composition in the microenvironment of primary breast cancer.

PMID:37549298 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2203828120

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Aug 15;120(33):e2304415120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2304415120. Epub 2023 Aug 7.

ABSTRACT

Real-world healthcare data sharing is instrumental in constructing broader-based and larger clinical datasets that may improve clinical decision-making research and outcomes. Stakeholders are frequently reluctant to share their data without guaranteed patient privacy, proper protection of their datasets, and control over the usage of their data. Fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) is a cryptographic capability that can address these issues by enabling computation on encrypted data without intermediate decryptions, so the analytics results are obtained without revealing the raw data. This work presents a toolset for collaborative privacy-preserving analysis of oncological data using multiparty FHE. Our toolset supports survival analysis, logistic regression training, and several common descriptive statistics. We demonstrate using oncological datasets that the toolset achieves high accuracy and practical performance, which scales well to larger datasets. As part of this work, we propose a cryptographic protocol for interactive bootstrapping in multiparty FHE, which is of independent interest. The toolset we develop is general-purpose and can be applied to other collaborative medical and healthcare application domains.

PMID:37549296 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2304415120

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Aug 15;120(33):e2302661120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2302661120. Epub 2023 Aug 7.

ABSTRACT

Polycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode Echinococcus vogeli, is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca Cuniculus paca) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE’s key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of E. vogeli. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies.

PMID:37549288 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2302661120

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Aug 15;120(33):e2210500120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2210500120. Epub 2023 Aug 7.

ABSTRACT

Simulations can help unravel the complicated ways in which molecular structure determines function. Here, we use molecular simulations to show how slight alterations of a molecular motor’s structure can cause the motor’s typical dynamical behavior to reverse directions. Inspired by autonomous synthetic catenane motors, we study the molecular dynamics of a minimal motor model, consisting of a shuttling ring that moves along a track containing interspersed binding sites and catalytic sites. The binding sites attract the shuttling ring while the catalytic sites speed up a reaction between molecular species, which can be thought of as fuel and waste. When that fuel and waste are held in nonequilibrium steady-state concentrations, the free energy from the reaction drives directed motion of the shuttling ring along the track. Using this model and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics, we show that the shuttling ring’s direction can be reversed by simply adjusting the spacing between binding and catalytic sites on the track. We present a steric mechanism behind the current reversal, supported by kinetic measurements from the simulations. These results demonstrate how molecular simulation can guide future development of artificial molecular motors.

PMID:37549273 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2210500120

J Vet Intern Med. 2023 Aug 7. doi: 10.1111/jvim.16831. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Attainment of adequate transfer of passive immunity (TPI) is critical to health of calves; however, studies comparing available tools for measurement of TPI in individual beef animals are limited.

OBJECTIVES: To report agreement between 4 tests evaluating individual TPI status in beef calves.

ANIMALS: One hundred ninety-six beef calves born to cows and heifers presenting for calving management or dystocia.

METHODS: Retrospective study to assess serum immunoglobulin (IgG) concentrations via turbidimetric immunoassay (TI), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), serum total protein (TP), and single radial immunodiffusion (RID; reference standard). Test agreement was evaluated using Passing-Bablok regression, Bland-Altman analysis, Cohen’s kappa, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with and without covariate adjustment to determine optimal thresholds.

RESULTS: Correlation between RID and test results varied: TI, ρ = 0.757; TP, ρ = 0.715; GGT: ρ = 0.413. For the TI compared to RID, regression analysis identified a constant (intercept = -0.51 [CI: -2.63, 3.05]) and proportional (slope = 1.87 [CI: 1.69, 2.08]) bias. Based on ROC, TI concentrations of ≤9.89 and ≤13.76 g/L, and TP concentrations of ≤5.5 and ≤6.0 g/dL, indicated IgG concentrations <18.0 and <25.0 g/L, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: Within this cohort of calves, TI demonstrated the best correlation with RID; however, significant bias was identified which led to frequent underestimation of IgG concentration. Serum total protein demonstrated less correlation with RID but had less misclassification than TI. Both TI and TP demonstrated less correlation for calves that received colostrum replacement prompting clinical awareness of colostrum type when evaluating individual TPI in beef calves.

PMID:37549250 | DOI:10.1111/jvim.16831

J Infect Dis. 2023 Aug 7:jiad297. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiad297. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to determine the risk of herpes zoster reactivation and COVID-19 vaccination (mRNA vaccine [BNT162b2] and adenovirus-vectored vaccine [ChAdOx1 nCoV-19]).

METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed herpes zoster cases diagnosed between February 26, 2021 and June 30, 2021 and registered in the National Health Insurance Service database. A matched case-control study with a 1:3 matching ratio, and a propensity score matching (PSM) study with a 1:1 ratio of vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals were performed.

RESULTS: In the matched case control analysis, BNT162b2 was associated with an increased risk of herpes zoster reactivation (first dose, adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.11 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 1.06-1.15]; second dose, aOR: 1.17 [95% CI: 1.12-1.23]). PSM analysis revealed a statistically significant increase in risk within 18 days following any vaccination (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.09 [95% CI: 1.02-1.16]). BNT162b2 was associated with an increased risk at 18 days post-vaccination (aHR: 1.65 [95% CI: 1.35-2.02]) and second dose (aHR: 1.10 [95% CI: 1.02-1.19]). However, the risk did not increase in both analysis of ChAdOx1 vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS: mRNA COVID-19 vaccination possibly increases the risk of herpes zoster reactivation, and thus close follow-up for herpes zoster reactivation is required.

PMID:37549237 | DOI:10.1093/infdis/jiad297