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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Time-series modeling of epidemics in complex populations: Detecting changes in incidence volatility over time

PLoS Comput Biol. 2025 Jul 11;21(7):e1012882. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012882. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Trends in infectious disease incidence provide important information about epidemic dynamics and prospects for control. Higher-frequency variation around incidence trends can shed light on the processes driving epidemics in complex populations, as transmission heterogeneity, shifting landscapes of susceptibility, and fluctuations in reporting can impact the volatility of observed case counts. However, measures of temporal volatility in incidence, and how volatility changes over time, are often overlooked in population-level analyses of incidence data, which typically focus on moving averages. Here we present a statistical framework to quantify temporal changes in incidence dispersion and to detect rapid shifts in the dispersion parameter, which may signal new epidemic phases. We apply the method to COVID-19 incidence data in 144 United States (US) counties from January 1st, 2020 to March 23rd, 2023. Theory predicts that dispersion should be inversely proportional to incidence, however our method reveals pronounced temporal trends in dispersion that are not explained by incidence alone, but which are replicated across counties. In particular, dispersion increased around the major surge in cases in 2022, and highly overdispersed patterns became more frequent later in the time series. These increases potentially indicate transmission heterogeneity, changes in the susceptibility landscape, or that there were changes in reporting. Shifts in dispersion can also indicate shifts in epidemic phase, so our method provides a way for public health officials to anticipate and manage changes in epidemic regime and the drivers of transmission.

PMID:40644513 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012882

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

An Evaluation of the United Kingdom Motor Neuron Disease Nurses and Allied Health Professionals (UK MND NAHP) Workforce: A Census

PLoS One. 2025 Jul 11;20(7):e0319628. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319628. eCollection 2025.

ABSTRACT

According to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, motor neuron disease assessment and management should be a coordinated, clinic-based, multidisciplinary team approach. However, the wellbeing, work experiences, and the alignment with national frameworks and standards of the motor neuron disease (MND) nurses and allied health professionals’ workforce are severely underreported and under-researched within the literature. Therefore, this report aimed to capture the workforce and their alignment with national frameworks and standards, and to assess their experiences working as an MND health care professional. A pragmatic research paradigm and a mixed methods approach was employed using a cross-sectional questionnaire survey to collect, compare, and interpret quantitative and qualitative data points. Data was gathered under the remit of an audit and service evaluation under NHS Lothian. Demographics data and work-related characteristics were collected. Job experience and wellbeing were collected using Likert scales and open-ended questions. The level of burnout was assessed using the validated tool, the Burnout Assessment Tool (BAT). Compliance with national frameworks were based on the NICE guidelines and the Scottish MND Advanced Clinical Nurse Specialist Pillars of Practice Competencies. 64 HCPs completed the questionnaire, with the majority of respondents from England (54.7%) and Scotland (35.9%). Education level was mainly having a Bachelors (or equivalent) degree (40%) or a Masters (or equivalent) degree (31%), with the remaining having a diploma-based qualification (29%). The analysis revealed three key themes: the importance of the multi-disciplinary team (MDT), the roles and the level of competencies, and the benefits and challenges in providing direct care. This was associated with 14% and 12% of respondents being at medium and high risk of burnout, respectively. This report highlighted the importance of a collaborative MDT to support the needs of patients, their carers/ family members and HCPs themselves. The workforce found the flexibility, autonomy, and variety within their role beneficial where almost 80% of the respondents engaged in 8 of the 15 competencies. The benefits of providing direct care were found to be associated with feeling valued by the patients, their carers/ family members, and the core and extended MDT, and feeling satisfied about their work. The perceived challenges of providing direct care involved isolation, lack of direct funding, and a high caseload with complex needs and not enough time to provide quality care. It is recommended that a national competency programme or a Masters level course in MND care should be developed to maintain the quality of care, and future research should aim to evaluate the entire workforce longitudinally, address organisational barriers, and explore burnout preventative strategies to maintain a resilient workforce.

PMID:40644503 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0319628

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Priority setting for nutrition research in individuals with spinal cord injury: A protocol for Delphi study among health professionals

PLoS One. 2025 Jul 11;20(7):e0327612. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0327612. eCollection 2025.

ABSTRACT

STUDY DESIGN: A protocol for Delphi Consensus Study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify a top ten list of priorities for future nutrition research in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI).

SETTING: The International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Nutrition Specialist Interest Group (SIG) priority setting partnership was established in 2024 to conduct this international Delphi study through online surveys and a hybrid meeting.

METHODS: The study involves THREE key stages: topic generation, priority ranking, and consensus building. In phase 1, participants will generate potential research topics via an online survey. Phase 2 involves ranking the top 10 research priorities on a 9-point Likert scale. Phase 3 consists of a consensus meeting where stakeholders will engage in discussions and vote on the final priorities using interactive tools. For Phases 1 and 2, both ISCoS Nutrition SIG members and their professional contacts will be invited to participate, ensuring a diverse pool of expertise. Phase 3 will be limited to Nutrition SIG members to facilitate focused decision-making. Data will be collected through secure Qualtrics surveys and analysed using descriptive statistics in STATA or SPSS. The study adheres to the Conducting and Reporting of DElphi Studies (CREDES) recommendations and employs rigorous data management practices compliant with City St George’s, University of London standards.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been granted (ref: ETH2425-0192, Health Services Research & Management Proportionate Review Committee, City St George’s, University of London). The findings will be disseminated through ISCoS website, professional conferences and a peer-reviewed journal.

PMID:40644469 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0327612

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Psychometric evaluation of the Positivum beliefs and perceptions scales to inform occupational rehabilitation following injury

PLoS One. 2025 Jul 11;20(7):e0327355. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0327355. eCollection 2025.

ABSTRACT

Negative beliefs and perceptions about one’s health and work participation can act as barriers to rehabilitation and returning to work following an injury, thus increasing the risk of long-term work disability. To prevent poor work and health outcomes it is necessary to be able to effectively measure such constructs. The aim of the present study was to perform a psychometric evaluation of the PositivumTM: Beliefs and Perceptions scales used with individuals with a musculoskeletal injury or condition receiving occupational rehabilitation (OR) services through a workers’ compensation or motor vehicle accident insurance scheme. Exploratory factor analysis, item response theory-based analyses, internal consistency analyses, and confirmatory factor analysis were conducted on data collected from January 2020 to April 2024 from a sample of 3,352 musculoskeletal injured individuals receiving OR services through their compensation scheme. The results of the current study demonstrated the psychometric robustness of a revised 12 item Positivum: Beliefs and Perceptions scale (PBPS), with two clear multi-item factors: Employer Perceptions and Health-related Work Beliefs as well as two single-item measures (expectations about, and perceived enjoyment of, working). Identifying those with negative beliefs and perceptions about working following an injury and at risk of prolonged work disability is the first critical step toward preventing prolonged work disability.

PMID:40644457 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0327355

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Broad Impact of Bowel Urgency in Ulcerative Colitis and Crohn’s Disease: US, European, and Japanese Patient and Healthcare Professional Perspectives from the Communicating Needs and Features of IBD Experiences (CONFIDE) Survey

Adv Ther. 2025 Jul 11. doi: 10.1007/s12325-025-03296-3. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Bowel urgency affects the quality of life of patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). This study used data from the Communicating Needs and Features of IBD Experiences (CONFIDE) survey to explore patient and healthcare professional (HCP) perceptions on the broad impacts of bowel urgency on patients’ emotions and daily lives.

METHODS: Online, quantitative, cross-sectional surveys were conducted among patients with moderate-to-severe UC or CD (defined based on previous treatment, steroid use, and/or hospitalization) and HCPs specialized in gastroenterology in Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), United States (US), and Japan. Data were summarized using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS: The analysis included 200 US, 556 European, and 124 Japanese patients with UC and 215 US, 547 European, and 99 Japanese patients with CD; and 200 US, 503 European, and 100 Japanese HCPs. Patients experiencing bowel urgency in the past month and HCPs reported high emotional (up to: 97% patients, 97% HCPs) and daily life (up to: 85% patients, 97% HCPs) impacts due to bowel urgency in the US, Europe, and Japan. In all geographies, these impacts were similar among patients with UC and CD. Although patients and HCPs reported a broad impact of bowel urgency, HCPs perceived a higher impact than patients, but it was not among the top three most impactful symptoms on HCPs’ treatment decisions.

CONCLUSIONS: Bowel urgency affects the emotions and daily life of patients with UC or CD in the US, Europe, and Japan. A multidisciplinary approach is required to enhance care and develop suitable treatment strategies.

PMID:40643842 | DOI:10.1007/s12325-025-03296-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A study on the correlation between regional airborne particulate concentration and asthma occurrence based on an open database and time series prediction

Environ Monit Assess. 2025 Jul 11;197(8):902. doi: 10.1007/s10661-025-14297-8.

ABSTRACT

Air pollution has become an issue of concern in recent years. The rapid development of modern technology and industrial carbon emissions has led to an increase in suspended particles in the air. This is of particular concern in Taiwan, where the focus on high-tech industries, whether semiconductor manufacturing or printed circuit board manufacturing, produces pollutants that are harmful to the environment. Asthma is an important issue both in the past and today. The clinical care guidelines for adult asthma issued in 2022 state that the prevalence of asthma in Taiwan was 12% for adults and 15% for children. Based on these estimates, there are approximately 2 million asthma patients in Taiwan, which creates a serious burden on healthcare resources. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between regional airborne particles and asthma, to determine which airborne particles are most associated with asthma, and to ascertain the degree of correlation between the two through the statistical method of correlation analysis. A weak positive correlation was found between PM10 and the number of asthma emergencies. A time series model was also used to predict PM2.5 and PM10 levels and the number of asthma emergencies, which can be used as a reference for the number of asthma consultations and as a basis for evaluating the allocation of healthcare resources.

PMID:40643838 | DOI:10.1007/s10661-025-14297-8

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Root canal conicity of primary maxillary molars and its relationship with different rotational systems

Eur Arch Paediatr Dent. 2025 Jul 11. doi: 10.1007/s40368-025-01075-w. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To determine the root canal taper of primary maxillary molars and the degree of compatibility of various rsotary systems concerning root anatomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This in vitro study collected donated first and second primary molars (1 M and 2 M) with mesio-buccal (MB), disto-buccal (DB) and palatal (P) roots canal without physiological resorption, type I according to Vertucci, and root length greater than 4 mm. The teeth were mounted in silicone blocks and scanned with tomographic equipment from which images were reconstructed and analysed with the 3D-Slicer® programme, allowing for the measurement of the diameters of the root canals and the calculation of their tapers. The tapers were compared with the characteristics of the rotary systems: Endogal®, Protaper universal®, Mtwo® and Protaper Next®. MANOVA and interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) tests were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS: After the analysis of 130 root canals, a mean increase in taper in the buccal-palatal (BP) direction was observed in the 2 M (MB:16.7%; DB:16.23%; P:8.86%) and the 1 M (MB: 9.75%; DB: 11.30%; P: 2.26%). In the mesiodistal (MD) direction, the 1 M exhibited an average taper of MB:6.95%, DB:4.67%, P:12.74% and in the 2 M, an average taper of 4.67% for the MB canal; 6.60%; 20.14% for DB and P canals, respectively.

CONCLUSION: The rotary files that presented the best adaptation to the diameter and taper of the root canal were Endogal® and ProTaper Universal® systems.

PMID:40643836 | DOI:10.1007/s40368-025-01075-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The size of parapelvic cyst may affect the effect of ureteroscopic laser incision and internal drainage

Int Urol Nephrol. 2025 Jul 11. doi: 10.1007/s11255-025-04649-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the efficacy and the safety of flexible ureteroscopic laser incision and internal drainage in the treatment of parapelvic cysts and investigate the key variables affecting the collapse effect after cyst surgery.

METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 45 patients diagnosed with parapelvic cysts and treated with laser incision and internal drainage at West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2018 to December 2024. The reduction ratio of the maximum transverse diameter of the cysts pre- and post-operation was utilized as the criterion for assessing therapeutic efficacy. Scatter plots illustrating the postoperative reduction ratio and the preoperative maximum transverse diameter of the cysts, along with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, were constructed. The postoperative collapse of the cysts and the reduction ratio of their maximum transverse diameter were statistically described. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to identify the variables affecting the efficacy of incision and internal drainage in cysts post-operation.

RESULTS: A cohort of 45 patients was monitored over a median duration of 12 months. These patients were categorized into two groups based on a postoperative reduction threshold of 50%: 9 patients were classified into the ineffective operation group, while 36 patients were classified into the successful operation group. At the 3-month follow-up, the success rate was determined to be 80%, with no cases of recurrence at 12 months. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified the maximum transverse diameter of the preoperative cyst as an independent predictor of surgical success (OR = 9.41, 95% CI 1.33-66.83, P = 0.025). Further regression analysis indicated that when the preoperative cyst’s maximum transverse diameter exceeded 6 cm, the reduction ratio of the cyst’s transverse diameter progressively decreased following internal drainage. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve cutoff point were 77.8%, 72.2%, and 0.75, respectively.

CONCLUSION: The maximum transverse diameter of the cyst prior to surgery may serve as an independent factor influencing the efficacy of laser incision and internal drainage treatment for parapelvic cysts. This factor exhibits a negative correlation with the postoperative success rate. Specifically, when the cyst’s diameter exceeds 6 cm, the likelihood of cyst collapse diminishes progressively.

PMID:40643824 | DOI:10.1007/s11255-025-04649-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The state of cancer research and its association with the cancer burden in Ecuador: a bibliometric study

Discov Oncol. 2025 Jul 11;16(1):1307. doi: 10.1007/s12672-025-03168-w.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Cancer has emerged as a major public health concern in Ecuador, reflecting global trends. Thus, it is imperative to understand the country´s cancer research landscape. We aim to conduct a bibliometric analysis of Ecuadorian cancer research publications from 2008 to 2021 to identify research trends, institutional contributions, international collaborations, and the association with the national cancer burden.

METHODS: Articles were retrieved from Scopus, PubMed, and LILACS databases. Descriptive statistics and chi-square tests were employed to analyze different bibliometric indicators.

RESULTS: A marked increase in cancer-related research output was observed, particularly after 2014. The most common study designs were case reports (n = 244, 30.7%), cross-sectional studies (n = 174, 21.9%) and review articles (n = 131, 16.5%). Universities were the main contributors to national cancer research, accounting for 32.4% (n = 256) of all publications, with private institutions more frequently publishing in higher-ranked journals. Collaborative efforts between universities and hospitals represented 25.3% (n = 200) of publications, though 45.1% of these were indexed in the lowest SCImago Journal Rank quartile (Q4). The most frequently studied cancer types by body location/system were gastrointestinal, gynecologic, and breast cancer. This trend contrasts with national cancer statistics reported in 2022, in which the most common cancer types were breast, prostate (genitourinary), and stomach (gastrointestinal) cancers.

CONCLUSION: Our study provides a comprehensive overview of oncology research in Ecuador over a 14-year period. While research output has increased, there remains a need to enhance research quality and ensure closer alignment with the country’s primary cancer burdens to better inform national cancer control strategies.

PMID:40643823 | DOI:10.1007/s12672-025-03168-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

SIRT4 Regulated by a Mechanosensor, PIEZO1 Shows a Protective Function to Suppress Ox-LDL Uptake in Endothelial Cells

Tissue Eng Regen Med. 2025 Jul 11. doi: 10.1007/s13770-025-00733-w. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Endothelial cells (ECs) are key regulators of vascular function, adapting to mechanical forces, such as shear stress to maintain vascular homeostasis. Disruption of this adaptation, particularly in the regions of disturbed flow, contributes to endothelial dysfunction and the development of atherosclerosis later on.

METHODS: We prepared a custom-designed PDMS-based flow chamber to apply controlled shear stress (2 or 7 dynes/cm2) to human umbilical vein endothelial cells. ECs were cultured on gelatin-coated coverslips and exposed to different shear flows for up to 12 h. Cell alignment was confirmed by angle measurements using ImageJ. Gene expression of SIRT4, PIEZO1, NOTCH1, and LOX-1 was determined via qPCR, and protein levels were assessed by western blot. Specific gene knockdown was also conducted using siRNAs, targeting either PIEZO1 or SIRT4. Oxidized LDL uptake was evaluated using DiI-labeled Ox-LDL and quantified by fluorescence imaging. Immunofluorescence staining of ECs was performed to visualize VE-cadherin, F-actin, and nuclei. All quantitative data were subjected to statistical analysis.

RESULTS: We demonstrated that the mechanosensitive ion channel PIEZO1, regulates SIRT4 expression in response to shear stress. Under atheroprotective shear stress (7 dyne/cm2), PIEZO1-mediated upregulation of SIRT4 was observed, while atheroprone shear stress (2 dyne/cm2) led to reduced expression. Functional assays showed that SIRT4 protects endothelial cells from Ox-LDL uptake, a key factor in atherosclerosis. SIRT4 silencing increased Ox-LDL accumulation even under protective flow. This effect, and its link to LOX-1, was dependent on PIEZO1 signaling.

CONCLUSION: Current findings suggest that the PIEZO1-SIRT4 axis may modulate endothelial responses to shear stress, offering a protective mechanism against Ox-LDL-induced dysfunction and pathology. Our study underscores the potential of SIRT4 as a therapeutic target to mitigate vascular disorders associated with oxidative stress and disturbed blood flow.

PMID:40643822 | DOI:10.1007/s13770-025-00733-w