Category: Statistics

Sci Rep. 2026 Feb 1. doi: 10.1038/s41598-026-35544-z. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The United Nations (UN)’s 2030 Agenda for 17 Global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is a critical framework for advancing environmental sustainability and human development. Official Development Assistance (ODA) serves as a key source of financing for the SDGs, particularly in developing countries. This study investigates the impact of ODA on various aspects of SDG performance, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach that accounts for the diverse needs, uneven progress, and spatial interdependencies among UN member states between 2000 and 2021. Our findings show that ODA statistically significantly supports basic goals such as SDG 1 (no poverty) and SDG 2 (zero hunger), but has limited, or in some cases negative, effects on other goals, including SDG 8 (decent work), SDG 9 (industry and innovation), SDG 15 (life on land), and SDG 16 (peace and institutions). The results also reveal substantial heterogeneity across country groups, underscoring the need for ODA to broaden its focus to underfunded areas and adopt more context-specific strategies that recognize spatial dynamics, manage trade-offs, and prioritize SDG pathways aligned with country-specific capacities and priorities.

PMID:41622259 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-026-35544-z

Nat Commun. 2026 Feb 2. doi: 10.1038/s41467-026-68732-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Accurately predicting disease progression remains a major challenge in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Here we show that a biomarker-integrated prognostic staging system can stratify progression risk across the disease course by jointly incorporating cognitive status, established risk factors, plasma biomarkers, and neuroimaging measures. In the K-ROAD cohort (N = 1,263), the dominant prognostic contributors varied by clinical context-GFAP in cognitively unimpaired individuals, hippocampal volume in mild cognitive impairment, and age in dementia-while plasma phosphorylated tau-217 provided consistent secondary prognostic information across stages. Outcome-specific staging captured clinically meaningful gradients of progression risk and informed construction of a unified six-stage framework (Stage 0-IVB) with distinct inflection points of accelerated decline. External validation in the ADNI cohort (N = 290) demonstrated consistent patterns of worsening prognosis, particularly in early and intermediate stages. This system provides a clinically interpretable approach to risk stratification and may serve as an exploratory framework for biomarker-integrated prognostic stratification in AD.

PMID:41622252 | DOI:10.1038/s41467-026-68732-6

Sci Rep. 2026 Feb 1. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-23977-x. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Chilli, as a vegetable and spice, is an important constituent of Indian food. The major constraint that hampers chilli production is Chilli leaf curl disease (ChiLCD). It often leads to heavy yield losses as a result of which the farmers do not prefer chilli cultivation. Therefore, the present investigation has been undertaken to screen and evaluate chilli germplasm conserved in National genebank of India and identify lines resistant to ChiLCD. We screened 500 chilli accessions for four consecutive years (2021-2024) to identify the resistant lines. In the 2021 screening, 16 accessions were found highly resistant, 40 resistant, 33 moderately susceptible, 23 susceptible, and 388 highly susceptible. Accessions showing symptoms of Chilli leaf curl disease in each season were discarded, whereas resistant accessions were retained for repeated screening. From the advanced screening and validation during 2022-2024, some promising accessions were identified as EC771555, IC643853, EC772795, EC787119, EC769427, and IC607252 which maintained low disease incidence (≤ 5% PDI) and severity score one. Another 28 accessions were found resistant to ChiLCD. Quantitative PCR also confirmed very low viral titres (0.1-0.3-fold) in resistance accessions. The identified promising accessions can be used as donors in chilli improvement programs to develop resilient varieties that express good yield and quality under high disease pressure, reducing reliance on chemical controls. They also offer genetic resources for studying resistance mechanisms and molecular markers development for sustainable agriculture which leads to reduced production costs.

PMID:41622247 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-23977-x

Acta Epileptol. 2026 Feb 2;8(1):3. doi: 10.1186/s42494-025-00236-0.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing functional seizures can be challenging, and the semiology may vary between pediatric and adult age groups. Identifying those variabilities may be of diagnostic value. This study aimed to compare the semiological characteristics of functional seizures in both the pediatric and adult populations.

METHODS: All video ictal electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings at Cairo University Epilepsy Unit (CUEU) from January 2021 to December 2023 were retrospectively reviewed for adults or children with functional seizures. Detailed semiological characteristics of the ictal events were analyzed independently by at least two epileptologists. Each event was listed under the classification system as either major motor, minor motor, dialeptic, non-epileptic aura, or mixed type.

RESULTS: A total of 54 pediatric and 65 adult video ictal EEG studies were evaluated. Minor motor type was the most common clinical semiology among adult and pediatric groups, yet more prevalent in pediatric than adult patients (61.1% vs. 40.0%, P = 0.022). In comparison, the major motor events were significantly higher in adults than in pediatrics (25 event [38.5%] vs. 9 events [16.7%], P = 0.009). No statistically significant differences were found between pediatrics and adults regarding pelvic thrusting (3.7% vs. 9.2%), back arching (7.4% vs. 4.6%), clenched fists (9.3% vs. 15.4%), ictal pain (13.0% vs. 18.5%), ictal fear (5.6% vs. 3.1%), or ictal crying (7.4% vs. 4.6%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: The semiology of functional seizures varies between pediatric and adult age groups; minor motor events predominate in pediatric patients, while the major motor type is more common in adults.

PMID:41622241 | DOI:10.1186/s42494-025-00236-0

BMC Glob Public Health. 2026 Feb 2;4(1):12. doi: 10.1186/s44263-026-00243-4.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Group antenatal care (G-ANC) is an emerging service delivery model that integrates clinical assessments, health education, and peer support within group sessions. While evidence supports its effectiveness in pilot settings, less is known about its feasibility and impact when integrated into routine public health systems in low-resource settings.

METHODS: We conducted a registry-based observational cohort study (January 2023-November 2024) across six government facilities in Geita Region, Tanzania (two hospitals, two health centers, and two dispensaries). Pregnant women with gestational age ≥ 20 weeks were enrolled into G-ANC cohorts. Data was abstracted from routine antenatal care (ANC), labor and delivery, and cohort records. Descriptive statistics summarized ANC attendance and service uptake; associations with adverse birth outcomes were examined using a binomial-logit generalized linear mixed model (GLMM).

RESULTS: A total of 5936 women in 149 cohorts were enrolled. Overall, 93.9% completed ≥ 4 ANC visits (ANC4 +); 76.1% received ≥ 3 doses of malaria intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp3 +); 92.6% received iron-folate supplementation; and 96.2% delivered in health facilities. Only 8.5% initiated ANC in the first trimester, consistent with the ≥ 20-week threshold for G-ANC entry. In multivariable GLMM, completing ≥ 4 ANC visits was associated with lower odds of adverse birth outcomes (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.122, 95% CI 0.06-0.24; p < 0.001). Attendance at hospital-level facilities was associated with higher odds (aOR = 2.91, 95% CI 1.37-6.18; p = 0.005), likely reflecting referral of high-risk pregnancies. First-trimester initiation showed no significant association (aOR = 1.04, 95% CI 0.27-3.93).

CONCLUSIONS: In routine settings, G-ANC was associated with high ANC attendance, strong uptake of essential interventions, and positive birth outcomes. Integration appears feasible within public systems, though adaptations are needed to promote earlier initiation and alignment with the WHO eight-contact model. Further research should examine costs, feasibility, scalability, and long-term impact.

PMID:41622235 | DOI:10.1186/s44263-026-00243-4

Gen Hosp Psychiatry. 2026 Jan 27;99:151-158. doi: 10.1016/j.genhosppsych.2026.01.013. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Anxiety and depression are common psychological symptoms following heart failure (HF) and are associated with adverse patient outcomes. However, pharmacological treatments often have suboptimal efficacy. Recently, non-pharmacological interventions have attracted increasing attention for improving psychological symptoms in HF patients, yet the most effective approach remains unclear. Therefore, this study performed a network meta-analysis (NMA) to compare the effectiveness of different non-pharmacological interventions in alleviating anxiety or depression among HF patients.

METHODS: We comprehensively searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and PsycINFO from inception to March 2025 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating non-pharmacological interventions for anxiety or depression in HF patients. The RoB 2.0 tool was employed to assess methodological quality and risk of bias. An NMA was conducted under a frequentist framework using R and Stata software. Intervention efficacy was ranked using P-scores, and sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the stability of the results and explore potential sources of heterogeneity.

RESULTS: A total of 35 RCTs and one quasi-RCT involving 3829 participants were included. NMA results indicated that Tai Chi (P-score = 0.73; standardized mean difference (95% CI):-0.69(-1.59 to 0.21)) was the most efficacious intervention for improving anxiety symptoms in HF patients, while progressive muscle relaxation training (P-score = 0.78;-1.24(-2.74 to 0.26)) ranked highest for improving depressive symptoms. However, only aerobic exercise demonstrated statistically significant improvements in both anxiety (P-score = 0.63; -0.47(-0.86 to -0.07)) and depression (P-score = 0.74; -0.93(-1.44 to -0.41)).

CONCLUSION: Aerobic exercise appears effective for both anxiety and depression following HF. However, the evidence is of low to very low certainty.

PMID:41621139 | DOI:10.1016/j.genhosppsych.2026.01.013

Environ Int. 2026 Jan 21;208:110095. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2026.110095. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Metals are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the underlying pathways remain largely unclear. We evaluated the potential intermediate role of coronary artery calcification (CAC) trajectory on the association between urinary metals and incident CVD, accounting for competing risks by death from other causes. We used data from 6,459 participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). CAC was measured longitudinally using the spatially weighted calcium score in five exams, starting in 2000. Participants were followed for CVD events through 2019. Cadmium, cobalt, copper, uranium, tungsten, and zinc were measured in urine at the baseline visit (2000-2002). We used a causal inference algorithm with a path-specific effects approach for longitudinal mediation analysis to evaluate the intermediate role of CAC on the association between metals and incident CVD. The association with incident CVD mediated through the CAC trajectory was statistically significant for cadmium, cobalt, copper, tungsten, and zinc. The number of CVD cases (95% CI) per 100,000 person-years attributable to an interquartile range (IQR) increase in metal levels through the longitudinal trajectory of CAC was 44 (20, 72) for cadmium, 21 (6, 39) for cobalt, 19 (2, 36) for copper, 18 (2, 38) for tungsten, and 43 (26, 62) for zinc. This study supports that part of the association between urinary metals and CVD is attributable to changes in CAC over time. In particular, half of the association between urinary cadmium and CVD might be mediated by longitudinal changes in CAC. This study could inform strategies for early detection and prevention of CVD based on urinary metal levels.

PMID:41621136 | DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2026.110095

Environ Int. 2026 Jan 24;208:110090. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2026.110090. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Several studies have explored the short-term effects of environmental stressors on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission and severity. However, evidence on the interactive effects of meteorological conditions and air pollution remains limited and geographically variable. We therefore aimed to quantify the independent and interactive effects of short-term exposure to humidex, a composite index of temperature and relative humidity, and fine particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) on daily COVID-19 incidence across multiple cities and in multiple countries. Daily time-series data on confirmed COVID-19 cases, meteorological factors, and PM_2.5 concentrations were collected from 439 cities in 22 countries during January 2020-August 2022 as part of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. A two-stage design was applied: first, city-specific quasi-Poisson models with distributed lag non-linear models estimated exposure-response associations; second, multilevel random-effects meta-analyses pooled city-specific estimates. Effect modification by PM_2.5 was assessed using a product term between non-linear humidex function and linear PM_2.5 function. Approximately 95.1 million confirmed COVID-19 cases were analyzed. Lower humidex values (0.1 °C versus 15.1 °C) were associated with increased daily cases (relative risk [RR]: 1.1192, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0214-1.2262). A 10 μg/m³increase in PM_2.5 over the current and preceding 2 days was associated with a modest increase in daily cases (RR: 1.0079, 95% CI: 1.0001-1.0161). No statistically significant interaction between humidex and PM_2.5 was observed. Short-term exposure to cold-dry conditions and elevated PM_2.5 independently increased COVID-19 incidence, highlighting the need to consider both thermal environment and air quality when designing climate-resilient public health responses. These findings enhance understanding of how climate-related environmental stressors influence COVID-19 transmission.

PMID:41621133 | DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2026.110090

Biomaterials. 2026 Jan 29;330:124031. doi: 10.1016/j.biomaterials.2026.124031. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Aging is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of death worldwide, and numerous other diseases, but the mechanisms of these aging-related effects remain elusive. Recent evidence suggests that chronic changes in the microenvironment and local paracrine signaling are major drivers of these effects, but the precise effect of aging on these factors remains understudied. Here, for the first time, we directly compare extracellular vesicles obtained from young and aged patients to identify therapeutic or disease-associated agents, and directly compare vesicles isolated from heart tissue matrix (TEVs) or plasma (PEVs). While young TEVs and PEVs showed notable overlap of miRNA cargo, aged EVs differed substantially, indicating differential aging-related changes between TEVs and PEVs. TEVs overall were uniquely enriched in miRNAs which directly or indirectly demonstrate cardioprotective effects, with 45 potential therapeutic agents identified in our analysis. Both populations also showed increased predisposition to disease with aging, though through different mechanisms. Changes in PEV cargo were largely correlated with chronic systemic inflammation, while those in TEVs were more related to cardiac homeostasis and local inflammation. From this, 17 protein targets were identified which were unique to TEVs and highly correlated with aging and the onset of cardiovascular disease. Further analysis via machine learning techniques implicated several new miRNA and protein targets, independently suggesting several of the targets identified by non-machine learning analysis, which correlated with aging-related changes in TEVs. With further study, this biomarker set may serve as a powerful, potential indicator of cardiac health and age which can be measured from PEVs. Additionally, several proposed “young-enriched” therapeutic agents were validated and, when tested, could successfully prevent cell death and cardiac fibrosis in disease-like conditions using a microfluidic heart-on-a-chip to model of acute and chronic fibrosis, making this study the first in literature to test the efficacy of a miRNA-based therapeutic encapsulated in lipid nanoparticles in an organ-on-a-chip device.

PMID:41621130 | DOI:10.1016/j.biomaterials.2026.124031

Vaccine. 2026 Jan 31;75:128298. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2026.128298. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Measles remains a leading vaccine-preventable killer in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using the WHO/UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC) 2024 revisions, this article assesses measles-containing vaccine first-dose (MCV1) and second-dose (MCV2) coverage trends, inequities, and priority groups for targeted action.

METHODS: Data from 2019 to 2024 for 137 LMICs were analysed using descriptive statistics; Welch’s t-tests and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests to compare fragile versus non-fragile states; Gini coefficients for inequality; k-means clustering (k = 4) on coverage, MCV1-to-MCV2 dropout, change, unvaccinated counts, and fragility; and bounded linear models to project MCV1 to 2030.

RESULTS: In 2024, mean MCV1 coverage was 79.2% (95% CI: 76.8-81.6)-below the 95% threshold-with fragile LMICs at 68.5% versus 87.4% in non-fragile LMICs (difference – 18.1 percentage points; p < 0.001). MCV2 gaps were larger (-26.9 percentage points; p < 0.001). DTP1-based zero-dose prevalence was 20.8%, with 15.6 million children unvaccinated for MCV1 and 22.4 million for MCV2; West and Central Africa accounted for 7.2 million MCV1-unvaccinated (46.2%). Inequality rose (Gini 0.22 → 0.25, 2019-2024). Projections indicate MCV1 of 84.2% by 2030, with fragile LMICs off-track. Clustering identified four profiles: (1) very low coverage, high dropout, high fragility (22 countries); (2) high coverage, low dropout (44); (3) low coverage, severe dropout (31); and (4) low coverage, moderate dropout (40), each implying distinct priorities (conflict-adapted SIAs; sustaining gains; follow-up campaigns; expanding first-dose access).

CONCLUSIONS: Persistent and widening measles immunization gaps-especially in fragile settings-threaten IA2030’s 90% coverage targets. Pairing the 2024 WUENIC revision with fragility-sensitive clustering and bounded projections provides a practical framework to prioritize equity-focused funding and operational strategies where need is greatest.

PMID:41621116 | DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2026.128298