Category: Statistics

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Dec 1;5(12):e2248972. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.48972.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Lockdown measures and the stress of the COVID-19 pandemic are factors associated with increased risk of violence, yet there is limited information on trends in emergency department (ED) encounters for sexual assault.

OBJECTIVE: To compare changes in ED encounters for sexual assault during the COVID-19 pandemic vs prepandemic estimates.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective, population-based cohort study used linked health administrative data from 197 EDs across Ontario, Canada, representing more than 15 million residents. Participants included all patients who presented to an ED in Ontario from January 11, 2019, to September 10, 2021. Male and female individuals of all ages were included. Data analysis was performed from March to October 2022.

EXPOSURES: Sexual assault, defined through 27 International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, procedure and diagnoses codes.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Ten bimonthly time periods were used to compare differences in the frequency and rates of ED encounters for sexual assault between 2020 to 2021 (during the pandemic) compared with baseline prepandemic rates in 2019. Rate differences (RDs) and age adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) and Wald 95% CIs were calculated using Poisson regression.

RESULTS: From January 11, 2019, to September 10, 2021, there were 14 476 656 ED encounters, including 10 523 for sexual assault (9304 [88.4%] among female individuals). The median (IQR) age was 23 (17-33) years for female individuals and 15 (4-29) years for male individuals. Two months before the pandemic, ED encounters increased for sexual assault among female individuals (8.4 vs 6.9 cases per 100 000; RD, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.06 to 1.96]; aRR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.09 to 1.38]) and male individuals (1.2 vs 1.0 cases per 100 000; RD, 0.19 [95% CI, 0.05 to 0.36]; aRR, 1.19 [95% CI, 0.87 to 1.64]). During the first 2 months of the pandemic, the rates decreased for female individuals (4.2 vs 8.3 cases per 100 000; RD, -4.07 [95% CI, -4.48 to -3.67]; aRR, 0.51 [95% CI, 0.44 to 0.58]) and male individuals (0.5 vs 1.2 cases per 100 000; RD, -0.72 [95% CI, -0.86 to -0.57]; aRR, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.26 to 0.58]). For the remainder of the study period, the rates of sexual assault oscillated, returning to prepandemic levels during the summer months and between COVID-19 waves.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that lockdown protocols should evaluate the impact of limited care for sexual assault. Survivors should still present to EDs, especially when clinical care or legal interventions are needed.

PMID:36580330 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.48972

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Dec 1;5(12):e2249342. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.49342.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: The Conséquences de la pandémie de COVID-19 sur la santé mentale des étudiants (COSAMe) survey was conducted among university students in France during the COVID-19 pandemic and found that although there was a slight decrease in anxiety, depression, and stress between the first lockdown (T1) and 1 month after it ended (T2), the prevalence of suicidal ideation had increased between these periods and 1 in 5 students had probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) at T2. These results emphasize the need to explore the long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the prevalence of mental health symptoms among university students in France 15 months after the first lockdown (T3) and to identify factors associated with outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study reports data from the third measurement time of the repeated COSAMe survey, which took place from July 21 to August 31, 2021, through an online questionnaire sent to all French university students.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The prevalence of suicidal thoughts, PTSD (PTSD Checklist for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders [Fifth Edition] [PCL-5]), stress (Perceived Stress Scale), anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory), and depression (Beck Depression Inventory) at T3 were gender- and degree-standardized and compared with prevalence rates at T1 and T2. Multivariable logistic regression analyses identified risk factors.

RESULTS: A total of 44 898 students completed the questionnaires. They were mainly women (31 728 [70.7%]), and the median (IQR) age was 19 (18-21) years. Standardized prevalence rates of stress, anxiety, depression, suicidal thoughts, and PTSD were 20.6% (95% CI, 20.2%-21.0%), 23.7% (95% CI, 23.3%-24.1%), 15.4% (95% CI, 15.1%-15.8%), 13.8% (95% CI, 13.5%-14.2%), and 29.8% (95% CI, 29.4%-30.2%), respectively. Compared with the decreased prevalence rates at T2, there was an increase at T3 for stress (2.5% increase), anxiety (13.9% increase), and depression (22.2% increase). The prevalence of suicidal ideation continued to increase from T1 (10.6%) to T3 (13.8%), and the prevalence of probable PTSD increased from 1 in 5 students to 1 in 3 students between T2 and T3. Female and nonbinary participants; participants without children and living in an urban area; and those with financial difficulties, a chronic condition, psychiatric history, COVID-19 history, social isolation, and low perceived quality of information received were at risk of all poor outcomes at T3 (eg, stress among women: adjusted OR, 2.18; 95% CI, 2.05-2.31; suicidal thoughts among nonbinary respondents: adjusted OR, 5.09; 95% CI, 4.32-5.99; anxiety among students with children: adjusted OR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.56-0.81; depression among students living in a rural area: adjusted OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75-0.85).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These results suggest severe long-lasting consequences associated with the pandemic on the mental health of students. Prevention and care access should be a priority.

PMID:36580328 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.49342

JAMA Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2022 Dec 29. doi: 10.1001/jamaoto.2022.4112. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: The number of olfactory dysfunction cases has increased dramatically because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Identifying therapies that aid and accelerate recovery is essential.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of bimodal visual-olfactory training and patient-preferred scents vs unimodal olfactory training and physician-assigned scents in COVID-19 olfactory loss.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a randomized, single-blinded trial with a 2-by-2 factorial design (bimodal, patient preferred; unimodal, physician assigned; bimodal, physician assigned; unimodal, patient preferred) and an independent control group. Enrollment occurred from February 1 to May 27, 2021. Participants were adults 18 to 71 years old with current olfactory loss defined as University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT) score less than 34 for men and less than 35 for women and duration of 3 months or longer. Olfactory loss was initially diagnosed within 2 weeks of COVID-19 infection.

INTERVENTIONS: Participants sniffed 4 essential oils for 15 seconds with a 30-second rest in between odors for 3 months. Participants in the physician-assigned odor arms trained with rose, lemon, eucalyptus, and clove. Participants randomized to the patient-preferred arms chose 4 of 24 available scents. If assigned to the bimodal arm, participants were shown digital images of the essential oil they were smelling.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was postintervention change in UPSIT score from baseline; measures used were the UPSIT (validated, objective psychometric test of olfaction), Clinical Global Impressions Impression-Improvement (CGI-I; self-report improvement scale), and Olfactory Dysfunction Outcomes Rating (ODOR; olfaction-related quality-of-life questionnaire).

RESULTS: Among the 275 enrolled participants, the mean (SD) age was 41 (12) years, and 236 (86%) were female. The change in UPSIT scores preintervention to postintervention was similar between the study arms. The marginal mean difference for change in UPSIT scores preintervention to postintervention between participants randomized to patient-preferred vs physician-assigned olfactory training was 0.73 (95% CI, -1.10 to 2.56), and between participants randomized to bimodal vs unimodal olfactory training was 1.10 (95% CI, -2.92 to 0.74). Five (24%) participants in the control arm had clinically important improvement on UPSIT compared with 18 (53%) in the bimodal, patient-preferred arm for a difference of 29% (95% CI, 4%-54%). Four (19%) participants in the control group self-reported improvement on CGI-I compared with 12 (35%) in the bimodal, patient-preferred arm for a difference of 16% (95% CI, -7% to 39%). The mean change in ODOR score preintervention to postintervention was 11.6 points (95% CI, 9.2-13.9), which was not deemed clinically important nor significantly different between arms.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Based on the change in UPSIT scores, this randomized clinical trial did not show any difference between intervention arms, but when exploring within-patient change in UPSIT as well as self-reported impression of improvement, active interventions were associated with larger improvement than controls with a potential advantage of bimodal intervention. While not definitive, these results suggest that patients with COVID-19 olfactory loss may benefit from bimodal visual-olfactory training with patient-preferred scents.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04710394.

PMID:36580304 | DOI:10.1001/jamaoto.2022.4112

Circ Genom Precis Med. 2022 Dec 29:e003542. doi: 10.1161/CIRCGEN.121.003542. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease risk score is the standard approach to predict risk of incident cardiovascular events, and recently, addition of coronary artery disease (CAD) polygenic scores has been evaluated. Although age and sex strongly predict the risk of CAD, their interaction with genetic risk prediction has not been systematically examined. This study performed an extensive evaluation of age and sex effects in genetic CAD risk prediction.

METHODS: The population-based Norwegian HUNT2 (Trøndelag Health Study 2) cohort of 51 036 individuals was used as the primary dataset. Findings were replicated in the UK Biobank (372 410 individuals). Models for 10-year CAD risk were fitted using Cox proportional hazards, and Harrell concordance index, sensitivity, and specificity were compared.

RESULTS: Inclusion of age and sex interactions of CAD polygenic score to the prediction models increased the C-index and sensitivity by accounting for nonadditive effects of CAD polygenic score and likely countering the observed survival bias in the baseline. The sensitivity for females was lower than males in all models including genetic information. We identified a total of 82.6% of incident CAD cases by using a 2-step approach: (1) Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease risk score (74.1%) and (2) the CAD polygenic score interaction model for those in low clinical risk (additional 8.5%).

CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance and complexity of genetic risk in predicting CAD. There is a need for modeling age- and sex-interaction terms with polygenic scores to optimize detection of individuals at high risk, those who warrant preventive interventions. Sex-specific studies are needed to understand and estimate CAD risk with genetic information.

PMID:36580301 | DOI:10.1161/CIRCGEN.121.003542

J Vis. 2022 Dec 1;22(13):8. doi: 10.1167/jov.22.13.8.

ABSTRACT

Reliability-weighted averaging of multiple perceptual estimates (or cues) can improve precision. Research suggests that newly learned statistical associations can be rapidly integrated in this way for efficient decision-making. Yet, it remains unclear if the integration of newly learned statistics into decision-making can directly influence perception, rather than taking place only at the decision stage. In two experiments, we implicitly taught observers novel associations between shape and color. Observers made color matches by adjusting the color of an oval to match a simultaneously presented reference. As the color of the oval changed across trials, so did its shape according to a novel mapping of axis ratio to color. Observers showed signatures of reliability-weighted averaging-a precision improvement in both experiments and reweighting of the newly learned shape cue with changes in uncertainty in Experiment 2. To ask whether this was accompanied by perceptual effects, Experiment 1 tested for forced fusion by measuring color discrimination thresholds with and without incongruent novel cues. Experiment 2 tested for a memory color effect, observers adjusting the color of ovals with different axis ratios until they appeared gray. There was no evidence for forced fusion and the opposite of a memory color effect. Overall, our results suggest that the ability to quickly learn novel cues and integrate them with familiar cues is not immediately (within the short duration of our experiments and in the domain of color and shape) accompanied by common perceptual effects.

PMID:36580296 | DOI:10.1167/jov.22.13.8

Musculoskelet Surg. 2022 Dec 29. doi: 10.1007/s12306-022-00770-x. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

In 1983, Fulkerson introduced a technique of tibial tubercle osteotomy performed according to an inclined plane with respect to frontal plane. Due to obliquity of the osteotomy plane, this procedure allows both anterior and medial transfer of the tibial tubercle. The purpose of the study was to investigate the influence of the different degrees of the oblique plane of osteotomy on anterior displacement and the contact surface area of tibial tubercle. Synthetic bones were used for the study. An osteotomy of the tibial tubercle (TT) was performed in each specimen. Specifically, 3 different degrees of osteotomy planes relative to the reference frontal plane were examined: 20°, 30° and 40°. On each sample, tibial tubercle medial transposition of 5 mm, 10 mm and 15 mm was performed. Anterior displacement was measured with a caliper. Further, the bone contact surface was calculated for each sample and each transposition. Finally, the measured data were statistically compared with a geometric model. At 5 mm of medial TT transposition, the anterior displacement (AD) was 0.1 mm when the osteotomy was performed at 20°. It increased of 1.5 mm and 2.7 mm, respectively at 30° and 40°. At 15 mm of TT transposition, the AD was 3.4 mm at 20°, 7.6 mm at 30° and 10.0 mm at 40°. Concerning the amount of medialization, it was observed a decrease in the overall contact surface passing from 5 to 15 mm of TT transposition. In addition, regarding the oblique plane of the osteotomy, it was observed an increase in the contact surface area passing from 20° to 40°. The main result of the present study is that the amount of anteriorization and medialization of the tibial tubercle could be predicted by the degrees of oblique plane of osteotomy. An increase in medialization significantly reduces the contact surface area at low degrees of osteotomy plane, potentially increasing the risk of non-union.

PMID:36580268 | DOI:10.1007/s12306-022-00770-x

Neth Heart J. 2022 Dec 29. doi: 10.1007/s12471-022-01745-0. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Chest pain is a common and challenging symptom for telephone triage in urgent primary care. Existing chest-pain-specific risk scores originally developed for diagnostic purposes may outperform current telephone triage protocols.

METHODS: This study involved a retrospective, observational cohort of consecutive patients evaluated for chest pain at a large-scale out-of-hours primary care facility in the Netherlands. We evaluated the performance of the Marburg Heart Score (MHS) and INTERCHEST score as stand-alone triage tools and compared them with the current decision support tool, the Netherlands Triage Standard (NTS). The outcomes of interest were: C‑statistics, calibration and diagnostic accuracy for optimised thresholds with major events as the reference standard. Major events are a composite of all-cause mortality and both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular urgent underlying conditions occurring within 6 weeks of initial contact.

RESULTS: We included 1433 patients, 57.6% women, with a median age of 55.0 years. Major events occurred in 16.4% (n = 235), of which acute coronary syndrome accounted for 6.8% (n = 98). For predicting major events, C‑statistics for the MHS and INTERCHEST score were 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.70-0.77) and 0.76 (0.73-0.80), respectively. In comparison, the NTS had a C-statistic of 0.66 (0.62-0.69). All had appropriate calibration. Both scores (at threshold ≥ 2) reduced the number of referrals (with lower false-positive rates) and maintained equal safety compared with the NTS.

CONCLUSION: Diagnostic risk stratification scores for chest pain may also improve telephone triage for major events in out-of-hours primary care, by reducing the number of unnecessary referrals without compromising triage safety. Further validation is warranted.

PMID:36580267 | DOI:10.1007/s12471-022-01745-0

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Dec 29. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-24396-5. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

We aim to explore the link between maternal weekly temperature exposure and CHD in offspring and identify the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme atmospheric temperature. From January 2019 to December 2020, newborns who were diagnosed with CHD by echocardiography in the Network Platform for Congenital Heart Disease (NPCHD) from 11 cities in eastern China were enrolled in the present study. We appraised the exposure lag response relationship between temperature and CHDs in the distributed lag nonlinear model and further probed the pooled estimates by multivariate meta-analysis. We further performed the exposure-response curves in extreme temperature (5^th percentile for cold and 95^th for hot events). We also delve into the cumulative risk ratios (CRRs) of temperature on CHDs in general and subgroups. In this study, 5904 of 983, 523 infants were diagnosed with CHDs. The temperature-CHD combination performed positive significance in two exposure windows, gestational weeks 10-16 and 26-31, and reached the maximum effect in the 28th week. Compared with extreme cold (5^th, 6.14℃), these effects were higher in extreme heat (95^th, 29.26℃). The cumulative exposure-response curve showed a steep nonlinear rise in the hot tail but showed non-significance at low temperatures. In this range, the CRRs of temperature showed an increment to a ceiling of 3.781 (95% CI: 1.460-10.723). The temperature- CHD curves for both sex groups showed a general growth trend. No statistical significance was observed between these two groups (P = 0.106). The cumulative effect of the temperature related CHD was significant in regions with lower education levels (maximum CRR was 9.282 (3.019-28.535)). A degree centigrade increase in temperature exposure was associated with the increment of CHD risk in the first and second trimesters, especially in extreme heat. Neonates born in lower education regions were more vulnerable to temperature-related CHDs.

PMID:36580248 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-24396-5

J Urban Health. 2022 Dec 29. doi: 10.1007/s11524-022-00702-x. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

National trends in gonorrhea rates may obscure informative local variations in morbidity. We used group-based trajectory models to identify groups of counties with similar gonorrhea rate trajectories among non-Hispanic White (NHW) and non-Hispanic Black (NHB) females using county-level data on gonorrhea cases in US females from 2003 to 2018. We assessed models with 1-15 groups and selected final models based on fit statistics and identification of divergent trajectory groups with distinct intercepts and/or slopes. We mapped counties by assigned trajectory group and examined the association of county characteristics with group membership. We identified 7 distinct gonorrhea trajectory groups for NHW females and 9 distinct trajectory groups for NHB females. All identified groups for NHW female morbidity experienced increasing gonorrhea rates with a limited range (11.6-183.3/100,000 NHW females in 2018); trajectories of NHB female morbidity varied widely in rates (146.6-966.0/1000 NHB females in 2018) and included 3 groups of counties that experienced a net decline in gonorrhea rates. Counties with higher NHW female morbidity had lower adult sex ratios, lower health insurance coverage, and lower marital rates among NHW adults. Counties with higher NHB female morbidity were more urban, experienced higher rates of poverty, and had lower rates of marriage among NHB adults. Morbidity patterns did not always follow geographic proximity, which could be explained by variation in social determinants of health. Our results demonstrated a highly heterogenous gonorrhea epidemic among NHW and NHB US females, which should prompt further analysis into the differential drivers of gonorrhea morbidity.

PMID:36580235 | DOI:10.1007/s11524-022-00702-x

EJNMMI Res. 2022 Dec 29;12(1):76. doi: 10.1186/s13550-022-00948-1.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Accurate classification of sites of interest on prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography (PET) images is an important diagnostic requirement for the differentiation of prostate cancer (PCa) from foci of physiologic uptake. We developed a deep learning and radiomics framework to perform lesion-level and patient-level classification on PSMA PET images of patients with PCa.

METHODS: This was an IRB-approved, HIPAA-compliant, retrospective study. Lesions on [¹⁸F]DCFPyL PET/CT scans were assigned to PSMA reporting and data system (PSMA-RADS) categories and randomly partitioned into training, validation, and test sets. The framework extracted image features, radiomic features, and tissue type information from a cropped PET image slice containing a lesion and performed PSMA-RADS and PCa classification. Performance was evaluated by assessing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). A t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) analysis was performed. Confidence and probability scores were measured. Statistical significance was determined using a two-tailed t test.

RESULTS: PSMA PET scans from 267 men with PCa had 3794 lesions assigned to PSMA-RADS categories. The framework yielded AUROC values of 0.87 and 0.90 for lesion-level and patient-level PSMA-RADS classification, respectively, on the test set. The framework yielded AUROC values of 0.92 and 0.85 for lesion-level and patient-level PCa classification, respectively, on the test set. A t-SNE analysis revealed learned relationships between the PSMA-RADS categories and disease findings. Mean confidence scores reflected the expected accuracy and were significantly higher for correct predictions than for incorrect predictions (P < 0.05). Measured probability scores reflected the likelihood of PCa consistent with the PSMA-RADS framework.

CONCLUSION: The framework provided lesion-level and patient-level PSMA-RADS and PCa classification on PSMA PET images. The framework was interpretable and provided confidence and probability scores that may assist physicians in making more informed clinical decisions.

PMID:36580220 | DOI:10.1186/s13550-022-00948-1