Category: Statistics

Psychol Addict Behav. 2022 Aug 18. doi: 10.1037/adb0000875. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: There are tens of millions of problem gamblers in the world, many of whom either do not seek treatment or fail to commit to it. Dropout rates are high, and not enough is known about factors predicting treatment adherence. We focus on an online cognitive behavioral therapy program for severe problem gambling to determine the likelihood of treatment discontinuation at three different treatment phases: pretreatment, before halfway, and before the end of the program.

METHOD: Participants were Finnish adults (N = 1,139, 670 males, M_age = 34.5) registered in the program between 2019 and 2021. Using logistic regression and five-fold cross-validated naïve Bayes classification, we predicted discontinuation with demographic-, psychometric-, and other gambling-related variables, including the quality of one’s social relations, time spent on the waiting list, and experienced readiness to behavioral change.

RESULTS: The models had acceptable predictive ability (area under the curve [AUC] values from .69 to .745; cross-validated balanced classification accuracy = 63.2%). In logistic regressions, treatment discontinuation was prominently associated with younger age (p = .008), lower education (p < .001), not being ready to change gambling behavior (p < .001), problem gambling severity (p < .0001), longer time spent on the treatment waiting list (p < .0001), and fewer close social relationships (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS: We found significant new real-world evidence on factors statistically predicting treatment discontinuation, which is crucial when existing programs are modified to better serve those in need. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

PMID:35980716 | DOI:10.1037/adb0000875

J Exp Psychol Gen. 2022 Aug 18. doi: 10.1037/xge0001276. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

People can extract and learn statistical regularities from various aspects of everyday life. The current study examined whether people have a mechanism to learn regularity based on time information and investigated whether sensitivity to time information is modulated by individual time management. In the familiarization phase, participants were required to observe a visual sequence of objects. Although the objects were presented in a random order, the amount of time for which the objects were presented was organized into successive triplets (e.g., 850-1,000-700 ms). In the subsequent test phase, two three-object sequences were presented. One sequence was a timing triplet that had temporal regularities. The other was a foil created from three different triplets. Participants were required to judge which sequence was more familiar based on the familiarization phase. The results showed that the triplets were successfully discriminated from the foils. These results were also observed for blank intervals. The current findings also revealed that although visual statistical learning was expressed when participants observed the temporal regularities of shapes tied to the corresponding durations during familiarization, this learning overshadowed them from indicating generic timing regularities when they were untied to objects. Furthermore, participants with high scores on the Time Management Scale showed a higher extent of visual statistical learning on object durations than those with low scores. These results suggest that people extract and learn regularities based on time information and that statistical learning based on time information is correlated with individual time management. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

PMID:35980711 | DOI:10.1037/xge0001276

J Exp Psychol Gen. 2022 Aug 18. doi: 10.1037/xge0001277. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

How do people detect lies from the content of messages, and design lies that go undetected? Lying requires strategic reasoning about how others think and respond. We propose a unified framework underlying lie design and detection, formalized as recursive social reasoning. Senders design lies by inferring the likelihood the receiver detects potential lies; receivers detect lies by inferring if and how the sender would lie. Under this framework, we can predict the rate and content of lies people produce, and which lies are detected. In Experiment 1, we show that people calibrate the extremeness of their lies and what lies they detect to beliefs about goals and the statistics of the world. In Experiment 2, we present stronger diagnostic evidence for the function of social reasoning in lying: people cater their lies to their audience, even when their audience’s beliefs differ from their own. We conclude that recursive and rational social reasoning is a key cognitive process underlying how people communicate in adversarial settings. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

PMID:35980710 | DOI:10.1037/xge0001277

J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform. 2022 Aug 18. doi: 10.1037/xhp0001045. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Visual scenes are often remembered as if they were observed from a different viewpoint. Some scenes are remembered as farther than they appeared, and others as closer. These memory distortions-also known as boundary extension and contraction-are strikingly consistent for a given scene, but their cause remains unknown. We tested whether these distortions can be explained by an inferential process that adjusts scene memories toward high-probability views, using viewing depth as a test case. We first carried out a large-scale analysis of depth maps of natural indoor scenes to quantify the statistical probability of views in depth. We then assessed human observers’ memory for these scenes at various depths and found that viewpoint judgments were consistently biased toward the modal depth, even when just a few seconds elapsed between viewing and reporting. Thus, scenes closer than the modal depth showed a boundary-extension bias (remembered as farther-away), and scenes farther than the modal depth showed a boundary-contraction bias (remembered as closer). By contrast, scenes at the modal depth did not elicit a consistent bias in either direction. This same pattern of results was observed in a follow-up experiment using tightly controlled stimuli from virtual environments. Together, these findings show that scene memories are biased toward statistically probable views, which may serve to increase the accuracy of noisy or incomplete scene representations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

PMID:35980704 | DOI:10.1037/xhp0001045

Transl Vis Sci Technol. 2022 Aug 1;11(8):16. doi: 10.1167/tvst.11.8.16.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Determine whether real-life surgical experience correlates with scores on a retina virtual simulator and the effects of various challenges on surgical performance.

METHODS: The study was performed using the Eyesi Surgical Simulator, a virtual reality retina surgical simulator. Residents, fellows, and retina staff were assessed on surgical simulations to determine surgical skills. Participants were assigned baseline scores on speed, efficiency of movement, and ability to avoid retinal damage. After receiving their baseline scores, participants were challenged to use their non-dominant hand or to use the simulator after sleep deprivation or the intake of caffeine or alcohol.

RESULTS: At baseline, junior residents had an average score of 943; senior residents, 1045; retina fellows, 1153; and surgical retina staff, 1161. A 12.5% overall improvement in scores was achieved when comparing baseline 1 to baseline 2; a major improvement was recorded in residents (14.5%) compared with fellows and retina staff (9.97%). A statistically significant difference was observed between residents and fellows (P = 0.027), as well as between residents and retina staff (P = 0.04). A significant decrease in performance (15.7%) was observed when the non-dominant hand was used (P = 0.043). Performance after sleep deprivation and alcohol intake decreased, but not with a statistically significant difference (P = 0.6 and P = 0.5, respectively). A trend toward increasing performance was observed after caffeine intake (6.1%; P = 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS: The retina virtual simulator is a novel teaching tool for retinal surgery. A significant association was observed between real surgical experience and the retina surgery virtual simulator results based on surgical experience.

TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: An association between real surgical experience and retina surgery virtual simulator results was demonstrated. A complete training program with a cut-off threshold score should be validated for retina training programs.

PMID:35980671 | DOI:10.1167/tvst.11.8.16

J Obstet Gynaecol. 2022 Aug 18:1-6. doi: 10.1080/01443615.2022.2109407. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

We aimed to identify whether IL-1β (rs1143627, rs1143634 and rs16944), IL-6 (rs1800796), IL-10(rs1800872 and rs1800896), and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) (rs1570360) gene polymorphisms were risk factors for recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) in a population of women in northwestern China. A total of 150 women with a history of two or more unexplained and consecutive spontaneous abortions before their 24th gestational week and 150 age-matched women with at least two normal pregnancies and no history of pregnancy loss were included in the present study as cases and controls, respectively. We extracted genomic DNA from peripheral blood, and executed genotyping with the SNaPshot technique. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the odds ratios (ORs) of the associations between the polymorphisms and RPL. Of the seven polymorphisms we studied, only IL-6 rs1800796 showed a statistically significant association with RPL, as we noted an elevated risk of RPL with the G allele (OR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.10-2.24; p = .01). The risk of RPL in women with the GG + CG genotype (OR = 1.96; 95% CI, 1.19-3.21; p = .01) was also higher than that in women with the CC genotype. The present study thus indicated that the IL-6 gene rs1800796 polymorphism may serve as an important risk factor for RPL in this group of women from northwestern China.IMPACT STATEMENTWhat is already known on this subject? Cytokine and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) gene polymorphisms may affect the risk of recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) by modulating cytokine and VEGF expression.What do the results of this study add? The study results showed that the IL-6 rs1800796 single-nucleotide polymorphism constituted a risk factor for RPL in a population of women in northwestern China.What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? This study clearly reflects clinical significance as it provides a theoretical basis for the early screening of RPL by revealing that the IL-6 gene rs1800796 polymorphism increased the risk of RPL in women in northwestern China.

PMID:35980661 | DOI:10.1080/01443615.2022.2109407

Int J Cosmet Sci. 2022 Aug 18. doi: 10.1111/ics.12814. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare data of conductance and capacitance measurements of facial skin hydration and to evaluate and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches.

METHODS: We measured skin capacitance (Corneometer® CM 825) and skin conductance (Skicon-200EX®) on 30 predefined facial sites of 125 Chinese women, resulting in 3750 readings per device. The data were analysed and compared, and continuous colour maps were generated on a 3D avatar for capacitance, conductance, relative difference (Δ%) and correlation (R-value) by interpolating between the individual readings and converting the values to colours. This visualisation allows a better interpretation of the results.

RESULTS: The complexity of facial skin hydration is revealed by this approach. The similarities and discrepancies in the facial hydration maps are clearly apparent. Due to the superiority of the Skicon in measuring high hydration levels, differences in skin hydration were evident on the forehead compared with the Corneometer maps, which may be related to the more superficial measurement of hydration within the stratum corneum. Conversely, a greater understanding of the complexity of facial skin hydration in the nasolabial fold was obvious when using the Corneometer. The best congruence between the instruments was found at two specific but separated facial areas, one around the inner eye region and the other one on a line between the nasolabial sulcus and the oblique, lateral jaw. Interestingly, the data was not normally distributed for both instruments and they had opposite skews. All facial clusters were statistically different from each other (p<0.001), except the cheek and jaw for the Skicon. Larger than expected percentage coefficients of variance were found for the Corneometer on some facial sites that might be explainable by differences in stratum corneum physiology and biochemistry. Corneometer values of 48 AU and Skicon values of 132 μS were taken as the cut off for normally hydrated facial skin.

CONCLUSIONS: Both devices have their advantages and disadvantages suggesting that bio-instrumental measurement of skin hydration is actually more complicated than commonly thought and that the different facial zones and the use of multiple instrumentation have not been adequately considered.

PMID:35980652 | DOI:10.1111/ics.12814

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Aug 1;5(8):e2225964. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.25964.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Instrumental variables can control for selection bias in observational research. However, valid instruments are challenging to identify.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate regional variation in sleeve gastrectomy following insurance coverage implementation as an instrumental variable in comparative effectiveness research.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This serial cross-sectional study included adult patients in a national Medicare claims database who underwent sleeve gastrectomy or Roux-en-Y gastric bypass from 2012 to 2017. Data analysis was performed from January to June 2021.

EXPOSURES: Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The association of the instrumental variable with treatment (ie, undergoing sleeve gastrectomy), as well as mortality, complications, emergency department visits, hospitalization, reinterventions, and surgical revision.

RESULTS: A total of 76 077 patients underwent bariatric surgery, of whom 44 367 underwent sleeve gastrectomy (mean [SD] age, 56.9 [11.9] years; 32 559 [73.5%] women) and 31 710 underwent gastric bypass (mean (SD) age, 55.9 (11.8) years; 23 750 [74.9%] women). After insurance coverage initiation, there was substantial regional and temporal variation in adoption of sleeve gastrectomy. Prior-year state-level utilization of sleeve gastrectomy was highly associated with undergoing sleeve gastrectomy (Kleibergen-Paap Wald F statistic, 910.3). All but 2 patient characteristics (race and diagnosis of depression) were well-balanced between the top and bottom quartiles of the instrumental variable. Regarding 1-year outcomes, compared with patients undergoing gastric bypass, patients undergoing sleeve gastrectomy had a lower 1-year risk of mortality (0.9%; 95% CI, 0.8%-1.1% vs 1.7%; 95% CI, 1.3%-2.0%), complications (11.6%; 95% CI, 10.9%-12.3% vs 14.1%; 95% CI, 13.0%-15.3%), emergency department visits (48.3%; 95% CI, 46.9%-49.8% vs 53.6%; 95% CI, 52.3%-55.0%), hospitalization (23.4%; 95% CI, 22.4%-24.4% vs 26.5%; 95% CI, 25.1%-28.0%), and reinterventions (8.7%; 95% CI, 8.0%-9.4% vs 12.2%; 95% CI, 11.2%-13.3%). The risk of revision was not different between groups (0.6%; 95% CI, 0.3%-0.8% vs 0.4%; 95% CI, 0.3%-0.6%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study of patients undergoing bariatric surgery, there was significant geographic variation in the use of sleeve gastrectomy following initiation of insurance coverage, which served as a strong instrument to compare 2 bariatric surgical procedures. This approach could be applied to other areas of health services research to serve as a complement to clinical trials.

PMID:35980640 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.25964

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Aug 1;5(8):e2227443. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.27443.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: The COVID-19 pandemic is associated with decreased surgical procedure volumes, but existing studies have not investigated this association beyond the end of 2020, analyzed changes during the post-vaccine release period, or quantified these changes by patient acuity.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify changes in the volume of surgical procedures at a 1017-bed academic quaternary care center from January 6, 2019, to December 31, 2021.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study, 129 596 surgical procedure volumes were retrospectively analyzed during 4 periods: pre-COVID-19 (January 6, 2019, to January 4, 2020), COVID-19 peak (March 15, 2020, to May 2, 2020), post-COVID-19 peak (May 3, 2020, to January 2, 2021), and post-vaccine release (January 3, 2021, to December 31, 2021). Surgery volumes were analyzed by subspecialty and case class (elective, emergent, nonurgent, urgent). Statistical analysis was by autoregressive integrated moving average modeling.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome of this study was the change in weekly surgical procedure volume across the 4 COVID-19 periods.

RESULTS: A total of 129 596 records of surgical procedures were reviewed. During the COVID-19 peak, overall weekly surgical procedure volumes (mean [SD] procedures per week, 406.00 [171.45]; 95% CI, 234.56-577.46) declined 44.6% from pre-COVID-19 levels (mean [SD] procedures per week, 732.37 [12.70]; 95% CI, 719.67-745.08; P < .001). This weekly volume decrease occurred across all surgical subspecialties. During the post-COVID peak period, overall weekly surgical volumes (mean [SD] procedures per week, 624.31 [142.45]; 95% CI, 481.85-766.76) recovered to only 85.8% of pre-COVID peak volumes (P < .001). This insufficient recovery was inconsistent across subspecialties and case classes. During the post-vaccine release period, although some subspecialties experienced recovery to pre-COVID-19 volumes, others continued to experience declines.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This quaternary care institution effectively responded to the pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic by substantially decreasing surgical procedure volumes during the peak of the pandemic. However, overall surgical procedure volumes did not fully recover to pre-COVID-19 levels well into 2021, with inconsistent recovery rates across subspecialties and case classes. These declines suggest that delays in surgical procedures may result in potentially higher morbidity rates in the future. The differential recovery rates across subspecialties may inform institutional focus for future operational recovery.

PMID:35980636 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.27443

JAMA Intern Med. 2022 Aug 18. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.3858. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in ambulatory COVID-19 is controversial. In addition, the association of vaccination with COVID-19-related VTE and relevant clinical and genetic risk factors remain to be elucidated.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between ambulatory COVID-19 and short-term risk of VTE, study the potential protective role of vaccination, and investigate clinical and genetic risk factors for post-COVID-19 VTE.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based cohort study of patients with COVID-19 from UK Biobank included participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection that was confirmed by a positive polymerase chain test reaction result between March 1, 2020, and September 3, 2021, who were then propensity score matched to COVID-19-naive people during the same period. Participants with a history of VTE who used antithrombotic drugs (1 year before index dates) or tested positive in hospital were excluded.

EXPOSURES: First infection with SARS-CoV-2, age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, obesity, vaccination status, and inherited thrombophilia.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was a composite VTE, including deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism, which occurred 30 days after the infection. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were calculated using cause-specific Cox models.

RESULTS: In 18 818 outpatients with COVID-19 (10 580 women [56.2%]; mean [SD] age, 64.3 [8.0] years) and 93 179 matched uninfected participants (52 177 women [56.0%]; mean [SD] age, 64.3 [7.9] years), the infection was associated with an increased risk of VTE in 30 days (incidence rate of 50.99 and 2.37 per 1000 person-years for infected and uninfected people, respectively; HR, 21.42; 95% CI, 12.63-36.31). However, risk was substantially attenuated among the fully vaccinated (HR, 5.95; 95% CI, 1.82-19.5; interaction P = .02). In patients with COVID-19, older age, male sex, and obesity were independently associated with higher risk, with adjusted HRs of 1.87 (95% CI, 1.50-2.33) per 10 years, 1.69 (95% CI, 1.30-2.19), and 1.83 (95% CI, 1.28-2.61), respectively. Further, inherited thrombophilia was associated with an HR of 2.05 (95% CI, 1.15-3.66) for post-COVID-19 VTE.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this population-based cohort study of patients with COVID-19, ambulatory COVID-19 was associated with a substantially increased risk of incident VTE, but this risk was greatly reduced in fully vaccinated people with breakthrough infection. Older age, male sex, and obesity were clinical risk factors for post-COVID-19 VTE; factor V Leiden thrombophilia was additionally associated with double the risk, comparable with the risk of 10-year aging. These findings may reinforce the need for vaccination, inform VTE risk stratification, and call for targeted VTE prophylaxis strategies for unvaccinated outpatients with COVID-19.

PMID:35980616 | DOI:10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.3858