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Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men: a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022

Euro Surveill. 2024 Apr;29(17). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2024.29.17.2300532.

ABSTRACT

BackgroundFollowing the 2022-2023 mpox outbreak, crucial knowledge gaps exist regarding orthopoxvirus-specific immunity in risk groups and its impact on future outbreaks.AimWe combined cross-sectional seroprevalence studies in two cities in the Netherlands with mathematical modelling to evaluate scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men (MSM).MethodsSerum samples were obtained from 1,065 MSM attending Centres for Sexual Health (CSH) in Rotterdam or Amsterdam following the peak of the Dutch mpox outbreak and the introduction of vaccination. For MSM visiting the Rotterdam CSH, sera were linked to epidemiological and vaccination data. An in-house developed ELISA was used to detect vaccinia virus (VACV)-specific IgG. These observations were combined with published data on serial interval and vaccine effectiveness to inform a stochastic transmission model that estimates the risk of future mpox outbreaks.ResultsThe seroprevalence of VACV-specific antibodies was 45.4% and 47.1% in Rotterdam and Amsterdam, respectively. Transmission modelling showed that the impact of risk group vaccination on the original outbreak was likely small. However, assuming different scenarios, the number of mpox cases in a future outbreak would be markedly reduced because of vaccination. Simultaneously, the current level of immunity alone may not prevent future outbreaks. Maintaining a short time-to-diagnosis is a key component of any strategy to prevent new outbreaks.ConclusionOur findings indicate a reduced likelihood of large future mpox outbreaks among MSM in the Netherlands under current conditions, but emphasise the importance of maintaining population immunity, diagnostic capacities and disease awareness.

PMID:38666400 | DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2024.29.17.2300532

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The impact of ankle-foot orthoses on mobility of dual-task walking in stroke patients? A cross-sectional two-factor factorial design clinical trial

Neuropsychol Rehabil. 2024 Apr 26:1-25. doi: 10.1080/09602011.2024.2343155. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACTTo assess the impact of ankle-foot orthoses (AFOs) on mobility and gait during dual-task walking in post-stroke survivors. In this cross-sectional, factorial design trial, stroke survivors performed four randomized tasks: (1) dual-task walking with AFOs, (2) single-task walking with AFOs, (3) dual-task walking without AFOs, and (4) single-task walking without AFOs. Primary outcome was the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, with secondary outcomes including gait metrics, Tinetti scores, and auditory N-back tests. In the results, 48 subjects (38 males and 10 females; 19-65 years) completed the trial. Patients had a greater TUG score with AFOs compared with non-AFOs conditions (95% CI: 7.22-14.41, P < 0.001) in single-task and dual-task conditions. Secondary outcomes showed marked enhancement with AFOs during dual-task walking, with significant interaction effects in gait metrics, balance, and cognitive function (P < 0.05). Although not statistically significant, dual-task effects of TUG and walking speed were more pronounced during dual-task walking. In conclusion, AFOs enhance mobility and gait during both single and dual-task walking in post-stroke survivors.

PMID:38666380 | DOI:10.1080/09602011.2024.2343155

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Effect of quadrantwise versus full-mouth subgingival instrumentation on clinical and microbiological parameters in periodontitis patients: A randomized clinical trial

J Periodontal Res. 2024 Apr 26. doi: 10.1111/jre.13279. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIM: This study evaluated the efficacy of quadrantwise subgingival instrumentation (Q-SI) versus one-stage full-mouth subgingival instrumentation (FM-SI) on probing depth and periodontal pathogen reduction over a 6-month follow-up period, as well as whether baseline periodontal pathogens influenced the impact of periodontal treatment protocols on outcomes.

METHODS: Patients with periodontitis were randomized to receive Q-SI (n = 43) or FM-SI (n = 45). Patients were instructed and motivated to maintain optimal oral hygiene during the treatment sessions. Clinical (probing pocket depth [PPD], clinical attachment loss [CAL], and bleeding on probing [BOP]) and periodontal pathogens were assessed at baseline and after 30, 90, and 180 days. Total bacterial load and periodontal pathogens were analysed via real-time PCR.

RESULTS: At the 6-month follow-up, the median PPD decreased from 4.8 mm (interquartile range [IQR]: 4.3-5.2) to 2.6 mm (IQR: 2.3-2.9) in FM-SI patients and from 4.7 mm (IQR: 4.1-5.2) to 3.2 mm (IQR: 2.4-3.5) in Q-SI patients (p < .001). At 6 months, FM-SI was more effective at reducing the median proportions of Porphyromonas gingivalis (Pg), Aggregatibacter actinocomyctemcomitans, and Tannerella forsythia (Tf) (p < .001 for each value). Multilevel linear regression analysis demonstrated that high baseline PPD (p = .029), Pg (p = .014), and Tf (p < .001) levels and the FM-SI protocol (p < .001) were statistically significant predictors of PPD reduction at 6 months. Furthermore, PPD reduction was significantly greater in the FM-SI group when lower baseline Pg levels were detected.

CONCLUSION: The FM-SI was more effective than the Q-SI in reducing the mean PPD and number of periodontal pathogens in periodontitis patients over a 6-month follow-up period. Higher baseline PPD and Pg levels had a negative impact on PPD reduction at 6 months after FM-SI.

PMID:38666373 | DOI:10.1111/jre.13279

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Income variability and incident cardiovascular disease in diabetes: a population-based cohort study

Eur Heart J. 2024 Apr 26:ehae132. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehae132. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Longitudinal change in income is crucial in explaining cardiovascular health inequalities. However, there is limited evidence for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk associated with income dynamics over time among individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS: Using a nationally representative sample from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, 1 528 108 adults aged 30-64 with T2D and no history of CVD were included from 2009 to 2012 (mean follow-up of 7.3 years). Using monthly health insurance premium information, income levels were assessed annually for the baseline year and the four preceding years. Income variability was defined as the intraindividual standard deviation of the percent change in income over 5 years. The primary outcome was a composite event of incident fatal and nonfatal CVD (myocardial infarction, heart failure, and stroke) using insurance claims. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated after adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS: High-income variability was associated with increased CVD risk (HRhighest vs. lowest quartile 1.25, 95% CI 1.22-1.27; Ptrend < .001). Individuals who experienced an income decline (4 years ago vs. baseline) had increased CVD risk, which was particularly notable when the income decreased to the lowest level (i.e. Medical Aid beneficiaries), regardless of their initial income status. Sustained low income (i.e. lowest income quartile) over 5 years was associated with increased CVD risk (HRn = 5 years vs. n = 0 years 1.38, 95% CI 1.35-1.41; Ptrend < .0001), whereas sustained high income (i.e. highest income quartile) was associated with decreased CVD risk (HRn = 5 years vs. n = 0 years 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.72; Ptrend < .0001). Sensitivity analyses, exploring potential mediators, such as lifestyle-related factors and obesity, supported the main results.

CONCLUSIONS: Higher income variability, income declines, and sustained low income were associated with increased CVD risk. Our findings highlight the need to better understand the mechanisms by which income dynamics impact CVD risk among individuals with T2D.

PMID:38666368 | DOI:10.1093/eurheartj/ehae132

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Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 Among Children and Adolescents Enrolled in Acute Respiratory Infection Sentinel Surveillance in South Africa, 2020-2022

Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2024 May;18(5):e13300. doi: 10.1111/irv.13300.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Identifying children at risk for severe COVID-19 disease from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may guide future mitigation interventions. Using sentinel surveillance data, we aimed to identify risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalisation among patients aged ≤ 18 years with respiratory illness.

METHODS: From April 2020 to March 2022, patients meeting study case definitions were enrolled at four outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) and five inpatient severe respiratory infection (SRI) surveillance sites and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Each ILI clinic shared a catchment area with its corresponding SRI hospital. Potential risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalisation were analysed using multivariable logistic regression by comparing inpatient versus outpatient SARS-CoV-2 cases.

RESULTS: Of 4688 participants aged ≤ 18 years, 4556 (97%) with complete PCR and HIV data were included in the analysis. Among patients with ILI and SRI, 92/1145 (8%) and 154/3411 (5%) tested SARS-CoV-2 positive, respectively. Compared to outpatients, hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 cases were associated with age < 6 months ([adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 8.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.7-24.0] versus 1-4 years); underlying medical condition other than HIV [aOR 5.8, 95% CI 2.3-14.6]; laboratory-confirmed Omicron BA.1/BA.2 or Delta variant ([aOR 4.9, 95% CI 1.7-14.2] or [aOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.1-7.3] compared to ancestral SARS-CoV-2); and respiratory syncytial virus coinfection [aOR 6.2, 95% CI 1.0-38.5].

CONCLUSION: Aligning with previous research, we identified age < 6 months or having an underlying condition as risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated SRI hospitalisation and demonstrated the potential of sentinel surveillance to monitor COVID-19 in children.

PMID:38666359 | DOI:10.1111/irv.13300

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Cerebroplacental ratio and perinatal outcomes in mild-to-moderate idiopathic polyhydramnios cases

Int J Gynaecol Obstet. 2024 Apr 26. doi: 10.1002/ijgo.15556. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study will evaluate whether fetal cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) can predict perinatal adverse outcomes in singleton pregnancies with mild and moderate idiopathic polyhydramnios (IP).

METHOD: This study was designed as a prospective case-control study between January 2023 and November 2023. Pregnant women diagnosed with mild-to-moderate IP and low-risk singleton pregnancies were included in the study. In all cases, umbilical artery (UA) and middle cerebral artery (MCA) pulsatility indices (PIs) were measured at 36-40 weeks of gestation, and CPR was calculated. The group with polyhydramnios was divided into two parts according to whether the CPR value was below 1.08 or 1.08 and above. Perinatal outcomes of all groups were compared.

RESULTS: A total of 140 patients were included in the study. Seventy of these were IP cases, and 70 were low-risk pregnant women. UA PI in the IP group was not statistically different from that in the low-risk group, but MCA PI and CPR were significantly lower in the IP group (P = 0.07, P = 0.001, and P = 0.004, respectively). IP cases were divided into a low group (<1.08, n = 18) and a normal group (≥1.08, n = 52) according to the CPR value. Cesarean section rates due to fetal distress were significantly higher in the low-CPR group (n = 8 [44.4%] vs 5 [9.6%], P = 0.001). In the low-CPR group, 5-min Apgar <7, and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission rates were significantly higher (P = 0.045 and P = 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION: It is encouraging that in cases with mild-to-moderate IP, low CPR predicts emergency delivery due to fetal distress, a low Apgar score at 5 min, and NICU admission.

PMID:38666357 | DOI:10.1002/ijgo.15556

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Association of individual and combined exposures of 10 metals with periodontitis: Results from a large population-based study

J Periodontal Res. 2024 Apr 26. doi: 10.1111/jre.13270. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: To systematically investigate the association between individual and combined metal exposure and periodontitis.

METHODS: Data encompassing complete periodontal examinations and metal detection in blood and urine samples were procured from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-2014. Three statistical methods, namely weighted logistic regression, Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), and weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression, were used to evaluate the independent and combined associations between metals and periodontitis.

RESULTS: Elevated concentrations of blood cadmium (odds ratio [OR]: 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-2.61) and blood lead (OR: 1.17, 95 %CI: 1.02-1.34) exhibited a positive association with periodontitis, even after adjusting for potential confounding factors. The BKMR and WQS regression suggested that the co-exposure of metals was also positively associated with periodontitis. Moreover, estradiol and albumin were identified as potential mediators in the relationship between the WQS index of the 10 metals in blood and periodontitis explaining 25.36% and 2.02% of the relationship, respectively. Furthermore, generally consistent patterns of associations between metals and periodontitis and mediating roles of estrogen and albumin were observed after a series of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of positive associations between elevated levels of cadmium, lead or metal mixture and periodontitis, which may be partially mediated by sex hormones and oxidative stress indicators.

PMID:38666324 | DOI:10.1111/jre.13270

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Association of cardiac biomarkers with long-term cardiovascular events in a community cohort

Biomarkers. 2024 Apr 26:1-10. doi: 10.1080/1354750X.2024.2335245. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study assessed major adverse cardiac events (MACE) (myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft, percutaneous intervention, stroke, and death. Cox proportional hazards models assessed apolipoprotein AI (ApoA1), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), ceramide score, cystatin C, galectin-3 (Gal3), LDL-C, Non-HDL-C, total cholesterol (TC), N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (NT proBNP), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (HscTnI) and soluble interleukin 1 receptor-like 1. In adjusted models, Ceramide score was defined by from N-palmitoyl-sphingosine [Cer(16:0)], N-stearoyl-sphingosine [Cer(18:0)], N-nervonoyl-sphingosine [Cer(24:1)] and N-lignoceroyl-sphingosine [Cer(24:0)]. Multi-biomarker models were compared with C-statistics and Integrated Discrimination Index (IDI).

RESULTS: A total of 1131 patients were included. Adjusted NT proBNP per 1 SD resulted in a 31% increased risk of MACE/death (HR = 1.31) and a 31% increased risk for stroke/MI (HR = 1.31). Adjusted Ceramide per 1 SD showed a 13% increased risk of MACE/death (HR = 1.13) and a 29% increased risk for stroke/MI (HR = 1.29). These markers added to clinical factors for both MACE/death (p = 0.003) and stroke/MI (p = 0.034). HscTnI was not a predictor of outcomes when added to the models.

DISCUSSION: Ceramide score and NT proBNP improve the prediction of MACE and stroke/MI in a community primary prevention cohort.

PMID:38666319 | DOI:10.1080/1354750X.2024.2335245

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Evaluating free segmentation tools for CBCT-derived models: Cost-effective solutions

Orthod Craniofac Res. 2024 Apr 26. doi: 10.1111/ocr.12799. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the segmentation accuracy and reliability of free software packages and compared them with commercial alternatives.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 36 stone models were scanned using a desktop scanner and then imaged by cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). The CBCT volumes were segmented using 2 free software packages (3D Slicer and Blue Sky Plan) and 2 commercial software packages (Mimics and OnDemand3D). Stereolithography (STL) files generated by the desktop scanner were used as the control group (reference models). The accuracy of segmentation was evaluated by (1) comparing 6 linear measurements taken from each STL model generated by the 4 software packages with that obtained by the scanner, and (2) deviation analysis of each STL model generated by the 4 software packages with that obtained by the scanner. Absolute error and percentage error, repeated measures anova and Friedman test followed by post hoc analysis, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and Pearson’s r were used to evaluate the accuracy of the tested software packages.

RESULTS: There was no statistically significant difference in all intra-arch measurements obtained using the four software packages. Measurements obtained using the free software packages and the scanner showed excellent positive correlation, ranging from 0.825 to 0.988, confirming equivalence with commercial software packages.

CONCLUSION: Within the settings of the current study, accurate and time-saving segmentations with high positive correlation could be performed using the tested free segmentation software packages (3D Slicer and Blue Sky Plan). Nevertheless, further evaluation is necessary to gage their accuracy using different CBCT modalities.

PMID:38666318 | DOI:10.1111/ocr.12799

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From Bytes to Best Practices: Tracing ChatGPT-3.5’s Evolution and Alignment With the National Comprehensive Cancer Network® Guidelines in Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Management

Am Surg. 2024 Apr 26:31348241248801. doi: 10.1177/00031348241248801. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Artificial intelligence continues to play an increasingly important role in modern health care. ChatGPT-3.5 (OpenAI, San Francisco, CA) has gained attention for its potential impact in this domain.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the role of ChatGPT-3.5 in guiding clinical decision-making specifically in the context of pancreatic adenocarcinoma and to assess its growth over a period of time.

PARTICIPANTS: We reviewed the National Comprehensive Cancer Network® (NCCN) Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Management of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma and formulated a complex clinical question for each decision-making page. ChatGPT-3.5 was queried in a reproducible fashion. We scored answers on the following Likert scale: 5) Correct; 4) Correct, with missing information requiring clarification; 3) Correct, but unable to complete answer; 2) Partially incorrect; 1) Absolutely incorrect. We repeated this protocol at 3-months. Score frequencies were compared, and subgroup analysis was conducted on Correctness (defined as scores 1-2 vs 3-5) and Accuracy (scores 1-3 vs 4-5).

RESULTS: In total, 50-pages of the NCCN Guidelines® were analyzed, generating 50 complex clinical questions. On subgroup analysis, the percentage of Acceptable answers improved from 60% to 76%. The score improvement was statistically significant (Mann-Whitney U-test; Mean Rank = 44.52 vs 56.48, P = .027).

CONCLUSION: ChatGPT-3.5 represents an interesting but limited tool for assistance in clinical decision-making. We demonstrate that the platform evolved, and its responses to our standardized questions improved over a relatively short period (3-months). Future research is needed to determine the validity of this tool for this clinical application.

PMID:38666297 | DOI:10.1177/00031348241248801