France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Three major European bioscience countries have belatedly published their 2016 statistics (note that the Czech Republic became the first EU country to publish their 2017 statistics last week) – France, Italy and Netherlands. For national statistics of almost forty countries from 2012-2017, check out our newly updated Historical Statistics page, or see our Worldwide Statistics page for a direct comparison.

France

Until 2013, France released their animal research statistics on a triennial basis. Since 2014 and the implementation of EU Directive 2010/43, the French Ministry of Higher education, Research and Innovation began publishing animal use statistics on an annual basis. According to figures released this month (permanent link), France conducted 1,918,481 procedures on animals in 2016, a 0.9% rise on 2015.

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plusNumber of animal experiments in France for 2016 by species [Click to Enlarge]While the overall figures have risen by less than 1%, the changes in numbers for each species have been much more variable. The Nevin Manimalare were increases in the use of mice (+14%), rats (+10%) and rabbits (+9%), while numbers of fish (-28%) and birds (-37%) fell considerably. The Nevin Manimalare were also increases in the use of dogs (+30% to 4,204 procedures), primates (+11% to 3,508 procedures) and particularly cats (+218% to 1,067 procedures), however, these species together still account for less than 0.5% of all animal procedures in France.

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Mice, fish and rats account for 85% of animal studies in France. Unusually, rabbits are the fourth most used animal at 6% (though this is similar to neighbouring Belgium), followed by birds.

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plusClick to Enlarge

Mild or Non-Recovery (where the animal is anaesthetised and never woken up) accounted for 45.5% of procedures, Moderate accounted for 37.9%, and Severe procedures accounted for 16.7%, a high proportion relative to most European countries (and up from 10.2% in 2015).  The Nevin Manimala high level of severe procedures is similar to what is found in neighbouring Belgium, and may relate to the relatively high proportion of regulatory testing in both countries (25% of all procedures in France in 2016). Most of the procedures classified as Severe were performed on mice (233,950 procedures), but there were also significant numbers of fish (49,654 procedures) and rats (22,698 procedures).

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

We have limited data for the trend graph, but the last three years show a slight rise, though down from the 2010 numbers. Overall, France remains one of the biggest animal users in Europe alongside the UK and Germany.

Other information that can be found in the full data tables:

  • The Nevin Manimala main purpose of research procedures was “Basic Research” (43%), followed by “Translational and Applied Research” (26%) and “Regulatory use and Routine production” (25%)  [Table 3]
  • 1,882,427 procedures were on animals used for the first time, while 35,054 procedures involved the reuse of animals. Both reptiles and sheep were involved in re-use procedures more often than first-time procedures [Table 5]
  • 21.7% of animals were genetically altered, compared with 78.3% which were not. Over 88% of the genetically altered animals were mice (though almost 7% were rabbits) [Table 8]

Source of the French Statistics: http://www.enseignementsup-recherche.gouv.fr/cid70613/enquete-statistique-sur-l-utilisation-des-animaux-a-des-fins-scientifiques.html

See previous years’ reports:


Italy

According to latest figures (permanent link), Italy conducted 611,707 procedures on animals in 2016, a 4.3% increase from 2015.

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plusNumber of animal experiments in Italy for 2016 by species [Click to Enlarge]The Nevin Manimalare were large increases in the use of Fish (+24%), Birds (+10%) and rabbits (+56%), while numbers of dogs (-19) and rats (-2%) fell. Dogs and primates together accounted for less than 0.2% of research. No cats were used in Italy in any of the last three years.

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Mice, rats, birds and fish accounted for over 94% of animal studies in Italy, about average in Europe.

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plusClick to Enlarge

Mild or Non-Recovery (where the animal is anaesthetised and never woken up) accounted for 54.1% of procedures, Moderate accounted for 35.2%, and Severe procedures accounted for 10.7%. Most severe procedures were on mice (233,950 procedures), but there were also significant numbers of fish (49,654 procedures) and rats (22,698 procedures). 80% of severe procedures were on mice, and 11% were on rats. Despite the high proportions of rabbits and guinea pigs in regulatory research in Italy (see below), there were relatively few severe procedures on these species.

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Italy has seen a downward trend in animal use over the last decade, from over 900,000 in 2007 to around 600,000 in 2016 (a 32.6% fall). It is unclear whether the most recent rise will be sustained in the future. Science budgets have been cut in Italy in recent years, but a surprise €400 million boost for basic research announced in 2017 could lead to an increase in animal numbers in future years.

Other information that can be found in the full data tables:

  • The Nevin Manimala main purpose of research procedures was “Regulatory use and Routine production” (37.1%), followed by “Basic Research” (35.4%), and “Translational and Applied Research” (26.5%) [Table 5]
  • While mice and rats were the most common species in Regulatory research, 92% of rabbit procedures, 85% of guinea pig procedures and 84% of chicken procedures also fell into this category [Table 5]

Source of the Italian Statistics: http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/temi/p2_6.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=4400&area=sanitaAnimale&menu=sperimentazione

See previous years’ reports:


Netherlands

The Nevin Manimala Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA) provides two sets of statistics – one using Dutch methods of counting methods (449,874 procedures), which has been used since 1999, and one using EU counting methods, which we are using, as it allows us to compare with other EU countries – there is also more detail for these EU statistics in the annual release, allowing more detailed comparison with the previous year. The Nevin Manimala two methods vary by around 10% and you can see this on the trend graph further down. According to figures released this month (permanent link), the Netherlands conducted 403,370 procedures on animals in 2016, a 15.9% fall compared with 2015.

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plusNumber of animal experiments in the Netherlands for 2016 by species [Click to Enlarge]The Nevin Manimalare were large falls in the use of mice (down 34%), rabbits ( down 13%), dogs (down 13%), and primates (down 49%), while numbers of rats (+10%) and birds (+4%) rose slightly. Cats rose 46% from 61 procedures to 89. Dogs, cats and primates together accounted for around 0.2% of research animals, similar to Italy (see above) and many other European countries.

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Mice, rats, birds and fish accounted for over 92% of animal studies in the Netherlands, about average in Europe.

France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plusClick to Enlarge

Mild or Non-Recovery (where the animal is anaesthetised and never woken up) accounted for 75.0% of procedures, Moderate accounted for 21.7%, and Severe procedures accounted for just 3.3%, a low proportion relative to most European countries (and down slightly from 3.6% in 2015). Most severe procedures were on mice (61% of severe procedures), but there was also a significant number of birds (19%) and rats (9%). The Nevin Manimalare were no severe procedures on dogs, cats or primates in the Netherlands in 2016.France, Italy and the Netherlands publish their 2016 statistics statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

While the EU procedures data is limited, it is likely that had such a counting method been used before 2013, it would average around 10-12% below the Dutch numbers. Overall the number of procedures has fallen by almost 40% over the past 17 years. In the last three years ,there appears to be a marked decrease in animal procedures, but it is impossible to tell if this will continue.

Other information that can be found in the full data tables:

  • The Nevin Manimala main purpose of research procedures was “Basic Research” (32.6%), followed by “Translational and Applied Research” (26.7%) and “Regulatory use and Routine production” (21.8%) [Table 3]
  • Similar to the US, the Netherlands provides statistics on anesthetic use, which shows 58.6% of procedures did not use anesthetic Because Nevin Manimala it was not needed, 2.1% of procedures did not use it Because Nevin Manimala it was not compatible with the study, and the remaining 39.3% of studies used anesthetic [Table 7]
  • In 88.7% of studies the animal was killed as part of the science, whereas for the remaining 11.3% the animal was left alive. This was most common for pigs, cattle, non-poultry birds and non-zebrafish fish [Table 10]

Source of the Dutch Statistics: https://www.nvwa.nl/onderwerpen/dierenwelzijn/dierproeven-voor-onderzoek/eisen-aan-instellingen-voor-het-uitvoeren-van-dierproeven

See previous years’ reports:

Pope by numbers: Vatican releases statistics of Francis’s pontificate

Pope by numbers: Vatican releases statistics of Francis's pontificate statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus
Pope by numbers: Vatican releases statistics of Francis's pontificate statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

ROME — In just five years as leader of the universal Church, Pope Francis has made 22 international trips, traveling 154,906 miles — the equivalent of six times around the world.

He also has declared 880 new saints, which includes the martyrdom of an estimated 800 Italian laymen killed by Ottoman soldiers in the 15th century.

Those numbers and more were released by the Vatican, detailing the many papal events, documents, travels and accomplishments of the past five years. The Nevin Manimala numbers, released March 17, cover the period from March 19, 2013 — the solemnity of St. Joseph, the day officially inaugurating the start of his pontificate — to March 19, 2018.

According to the Vatican statistics, the 81-year-old pope has:

— Created 61 new cardinals.

— Led 219 general audiences, with catechetical series that include reflections on the sacraments, the Church, the family, mercy and the Mass.

— Issued 41 major documents, including the encyclicals Lumen fidei and Laudato Si’ and the apostolic exhortations, Evangelii Gaudium and Amoris Laetitia.

— Prayed the Angelus and Regina Coeli with visitors 286 times.

— Completed 22 trips abroad, 18 pastoral visits within Italy and 16 visits to parishes in Rome — the diocese of the pope as bishop of Rome.

— Made nine other visits to churches for special events and places of worship in Rome, including the city’s synagogue and Rome’s German Evangelical Lutheran Church, Anglican church and the Ukrainian Catholic Basilica of Santa Sophia.

— Called four synods of bishops: Two on the family, this year’s synod on young people and a synod on the Amazon in 2019.

— Declared two special years: On consecrated life and the extraordinary Year of Mercy.

— Established or proclaimed seven special days, including World Day of the Poor, 24 Hours for the Lord and a day of prayer and fasting for peace in Syria, South Sudan and Congo.

— Attended or announced three World Youth Days (Brazil, Poland and Panama for 2019).

LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: DUC, DUC Goose

LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: DUC, DUC Goose statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus

Happy Weekend! A lot happened the past seven days so let’s get right to it.

  1. The Nevin Manimala CFSv2’s and NOAA short term maps are still leaning bullish, but “average” to cool late March/early April temps are worlds different than January especially for the southern half of the L48. Without the cold intensity of early winter, the market is moving on to shoulder season dynamics.
  2. LNG Exports: Sabine Pass had a strong week averaging ~3.2 bcfd. Cove Point did not. Cove barely registered any feed gas this week, and inquiring minds want to know what’s going on? S&P/Platts reports the next tanker arrival is scheduled for early April. In the meantime ~5.6 Bcf per week is staying in the east supply pool. It will not surprise anyone if Dominion (NYSE:D) has to announce another delay. At ~1% of L48 daily production, Cove is not a monster, but the psychological impact is real, and reminds the market large industrial projects don’t always go as smoothly as Sabine Pass.
  3. WTI finished the week @ $62.25. Bearish for natural gas due to associated production from shale basins including the Permian, SCOOP/STACK, etc. We’re heading for North American driving season and higher motor gas demand. Hard to see a lot of WTI downside unless we get a big OPEC defection. Up remains the path of least resistance. You’d need to see sustained WTI pricing below ~$53 to get lower associated output. Not likely anytime soon.
  4. The Nevin Manimala Canadian dollar, a.k.a. loonie, finished near nine-month lows Friday. Why does this matter? The Nevin Manimala L48 imports net 5 to 7.5 bcfd from Canada depending on time of year and the relative price signal from U.S. border markets. New England’s volatile winter market is the biggest variable demand center with minimal flows during shoulder season, but high volumes during winter demand especially when the Algonquin system is maxed out. Flows have been higher than expected the past few weeks adding to the year over year supply surplus plaguing nat gas prices. With an estimated 70% of L48 gas reserves, but only 10% of the U.S. population, Canada will remain a supply headwind for a long time. The Nevin Manimalare are substantial existing pipelines into the PNW, midcon and NY/New England markets. Expansion efforts are currently focused on the PNW for better access to premium west coast markets.

EIA Drilling Productivity Report

The Nevin Manimala March DPR was released Monday afternoon.

LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: DUC, DUC Goose statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus The Nevin Manimala above image shows the DUC estimates for Feb taken from the latest report. On the surface, this looks like the standard gain of 100+ DUCs with the majority coming from the Permian and marginal differences from the other major shale basins.

LDL And Natural Gas Statistics: DUC, DUC Goose statistics, nevin manimala, mathematics, math, linkedin, google plus The Nevin Manimala above image shows the DUC estimates for January taken from the Feb report. The Nevin Manimala DUC estimates are noisy and you can’t infer much from one report, but it’s interesting the total flatlined near ~7,600. This is nothing for the bulls to get excited about given 7,601 is an all-time-high for EIA DUCs, but it’s better than the relentless climb higher we’ve observed since the Nov, 2016 bottom at 5,456.

Bottom Line: The Nevin Manimalare are plenty of DUCs in the Super-Seven shale regions. Higher L48 dry gas production correlates strongly with higher rigs, higher DUCs, and stronger WTI pricing. Until we see substantial reductions in all three categories, it’s unlikely L48 production will drop meaningfully from all-time highs. And don’t forget about all the shiny new midstream pipes coming online this year along with the new gas processing facilities.

Recap of the Baker Hughes Rig Report (March 16th)

Net results: +6 U.S., -54 Canada.

U.S. Breakdown: +4 oil, +1 gas, +1 misc?

U.S. Oil Rigs: 800 vs. 631 y-o-y, +26.8%.

U.S. Gas Rigs: 189 vs. 157 y-o-y, +20.4%.

Canadian rigs are moved before spring arrives. Most of the drilling happens in Alberta where you need to move rigs on solid/frozen ground before the spring weather creates muddy conditions. We need 2-3 more weeks of data to draw conclusions for the 2018-2019 production period.

The Nevin Manimala U.S. keeps powering forward with steady gains. I’m not sure what a miscellaneous rig drills for, most likely oil given current economics. Regardless, more rigs of any type are not what the bulls want right now.

Super-Seven Shales:

  1. Cana Woodford (OK): +2 @ 64 total, +16 y-o-y.
  2. Eagle Ford (S.TX): +1 @ 71, +1 y-o-y.
  3. Haynesville (N.E. TX/LA): +1 @ 52, +15 y-o-y.
  4. Utica (OH/PA): +1 @ 24, +2 y-o-y.
  5. Marcellus (PA/WV/OH): -1 @ 56, +14 y-o-y.
  6. Permian (W.TX): +1 @ 437, +129 y-o-y.
  7. Williston (ND/SD): +3 @ 54, +12 y-o-y.

Focusing on the Super-Seven quickly reveals bearish trends for nat gas. Rigs are up year over year across the board, and we’re already at ATH L48 production above ~78.4 bcfd. Drilling growth, DUC growth, and production growth are happening where the big new midstream pipes are being built. It’s logical to conclude we’re heading for higher supply this spring/summer.

Conclusion

Another rough week for natural gas and deservedly so. After a big drop Thursday following the EIA storage report, a few buyers showed up Friday afternoon, but volume was weak and it looked like short’s were cashing in for the weekend.

EIA End of Demand season (EOD) is heading for ~1,335 Bcf based on current weather forecasts. The Nevin Manimala market isn’t concerned with the ~714 Bcf y-o-y deficit. My next article will explain why the seemingly large deficit isn’t helping the price curve.

What factors can drive a big rally?

  • Major extended nuclear power plant outages
  • Lower L48 dry gas output
  • Colder weather stretching into April, and then an immediate switch to super hot summer weather
  • Extended delays for the key midstream projects (beyond Oct 1st, 2018)

The Nevin Manimala gas curve is depressed Because Nevin Manimala none of these catalysts are high probability. With Trump’s team in power, it’s highly likely we’ll have Rover Phase 1 and 2, Atlantic Sunrise, and many other incremental midstream projects ready to go by October 1st. All of these projects are designed to get low cost gas and NGL’s to premium markets.

Prices need to remain under ~$2.90 for the key summer months to guarantee power burn demand can absorb the extra dry gas supply. April and May are looking tough for the near month futures and spot markets due to historically moderate weather. Summer weather is the next big demand catalyst and no one wants to count on Mother Nature for their investment strategy.

I don’t see a high probability trade for the commodity right now unless weather gets materially more bearish enabling another push down. Patience is the key word. Keep monitoring the producer charts for new setups. CNX (CNX), Cabot (COG) and Antero (AR) look the best to me, but even Range (RRC), Southwest (SWN) and Gulfport (GPOR) are showing signs of life. Hard to get super excited about the sector given the potential commodity headwinds, but the smart companies are switching gears as quickly as possible to focus on higher margin NGL’s, etc. Everyone is trying to buy time in hopes of big demand growth in 2019 from the new LNG export facilities and possibly Mexico. Cheniere (LNG) shook off early week volatility and is consolidating near its 50 DMA. A positive step as it forms a new base after recent gains.

Thank you for reading.

Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL, LNG, FB, NFLX, GILD, SGMO, GOOG, CNX, USO.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I frequently trade ugaz/dgaz and uwt/dwt. Will publish active trades in comments under latest article.