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Hey, does anyone remember when UGAZ was at $105+? That’s right it was only 18 short days ago on January 30th vs. the pre market price today of ~$51.80. Welcome to the world of natural gas trading. “My Bloody Valentine” was a D-grade horror movie from the early 80’s, and that means my friends and I were excited to crowd around the one kid’s TV that was lucky enough to have HBO back then, and watch this cinematic gem. It seemed like an appropriate comparison for the recent action in natural gas (UNG).
Yesterday’s higher than expected EIA inventory draw failed to motivate buyers. This is not surprising and matches the cautious commentary we’ve relayed to readers over the past week. It’s hard to imagine sentiment being this bearish given where we were at the end of January, but it makes sense when you look at the warm weather forecasts for the near term. Next week will be extremely warm in the southeast with locations from New Orleans to Miami requiring AC. You will not hear any talk about freeze-offs in the key Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana production triangle. The Nevin Manimala bulls were promised an arctic paradise, but ended up in a warm inferno of their own greed.
Is this the end for natural gas? Are we headed for another round of sub $2.25 pricing to crush the rig count and restrain L48 production? Only Mother Nature knows for sure, and nothing is ever easy when it comes to this volatile commodity. New readers are encouraged to review what happened last year at exactly the same time frame. A surprisingly warm Feb-2017 caused a flash crash for the front months when the EIA reported a surprise February injection, the earliest in EIA history. By the end of February, nearly everyone had given up any bullish hope, but a funny thing happened in early March 2017. Mother Nature took pity on the bulls and delivered an incredibly cold month that lingered into April and then May helping stabilize prices until the summer turned out to be mild and production started rising. Hopefully this little trip down memory lane is having the desired impact of reminding everyone to “never say never” when it comes to natural gas trading. Mother Nature has a profound impact on final results, and she can turn profits into losses extraordinarily fast for stubborn traders. Just ask all the bulls that were holding winning UGAZ lottery tickets less than three weeks ago.
Let’s take a look at the production fundamentals.
Last Friday’s Baker Hughes rig report was a disaster for bulls in natural gas and petroleum. We’ll get another update today at 1 PM.
This was an unequivocally bearish report. Canada data is noisy due to seasonal windows when rigs have to be moved on firm ground vs. muddy spring conditions. Canada will continue having an enormous amount of natural gas available for sale whenever the L48 price signal exists. The Nevin Manimala same goes for Canadian heavy oil. With no Canadian LNG export facilities possible for the next 4+ years, and a relatively low population compared to the U.S., Canada has limited options for their hydrocarbon output. Our northern neighbors are price takers for the foreseeable future which is great for U.S. consumers. The Nevin Manimala large number of U.S. gulf coast LNG export facilities already in progress will make it difficult, if not impossible, for Canada to join the LNG party.
Rig Changes for the “Super Six” Shale Basins:
The Nevin Manimala “Super Six” will soon become the “Sweet Seven” due to strong gains in the Williston basin which is part of the Bakken formation. Williston was +4 @ 50, +13 y-o-y.
WTI has dropped ~10% over the past two weeks and natural gas has stayed down after a large slide from the recent peak. Drilling plans don’t change overnight, but I’m expecting today’s report to be closer to neutral vs. last week’s disaster.
EIA Drilling Report Highlights
The Nevin Manimala EIA releases a monthly report with incredibly good data for petroleum and natural gas production indicators. The Nevin Manimala latest report was published this past Monday. The Nevin Manimala next release comes on March 12th.
Not surprisingly, the rig gains in the Super-Six are translating to production gains as seen in the table above. Appalachia’s continued growth is amazing and frightening (if you’re a bull) when you consider the major midstream projects rolling out this year. The Nevin Manimala combined output from the Texas basins is equally impressive and just as scary with all of the pipes coming online to enable Permian take-away. The Nevin Manimala Permian alone will cross the jaw dropping 10 bcfd level in the next report.
The Nevin Manimalase numbers sicken me when I think about N.Y. and New England politicians hiding behind “green politics” instead of supporting new pipeline connectivity to the Marcellus shale. Both regions still burn oil in times of high winter grid demand, and New England actually imports LNG! Talk about the most nonsensical thing you can imagine. We import LNG from Trinidad and Tobago Because Nevin Manimala the Jones Act prevents us from striking a deal with Cheniere? Huh? You can’t make this up. Northeast nuclear facilities are aging. The Nevin Manimala high maintenance cost plus the fuel risk will never compare to clean burning, cheap natural gas from our own domestic producers. New England imports LNG and sells it to consumers at price gouging levels that enrich energy company executive teams. In the end, the voters are responsible for not digging deeper, and blindly paying some of the highest rates in the country for electricity and natural gas. As a New Hampshire voter, I will continue raising the issue.
DUC’s set a new all-time-high to the surprise of no one including regular readers of my articles/comments. Appalachia dropped by 4 from 752 to 748. Earlier this week I made a comment/joke about how we could run out of Appalachian DUC’s in just 187 short months! Think about that for a minute if you’re still a super-bull and believe there’s a conspiracy to hold back prices. The Nevin Manimala Super-Six basins have an ample supply of DUC’s enabling production growth for a long time to come. Growth in the Permian seems to be out of control, but we know the focus is on oil and NGL’s. Unfortunately for natural gas bulls, you get increased associated production for free, and that’s a big reason why natty can’t get traction above $3/mmbtu. It appears current drilling plans are adequate to keep DUC inventory trending flat to slightly positive for all of the key basins outside of the jaw-dropping Permian growth.
The Nevin Manimala cure for low prices is low prices. A weaker curve “should” lead to less drilling, reduced DUC’s and lower L48 production assuming E&P management teams are not happy with the current rate of return. We’ve been looking for signs of this, but there are outside factors working against natural gas prices. WTI is off the recent highs of ~$67/barrel, but still up strongly year over year near ~$61 with the continued support of OPEC cuts. Strong WTI pricing increases the probability of associated gas production especially from liquid rich basins like the Permian. The Nevin Manimala natural gas price curve is helpless to slow associated gas production.
Let’s not forget major midstream projects are phasing in throughout 2018 to connect low cost output to high value markets. This is a critical component of the bear thesis, and should not be ignored by new investors. Bulls are facing a perfect storm of bearish fundamentals that can be traced back to the wide adoption of hydraulic fracturing.
The Nevin Manimala EIA weekly update reported L48 production at 78.1 bcfd average for the period ending Feb 14th (PointLogic data source). This is a new all time high for the L48 and makes sense given the strong drilling data and limited freeze-offs we’ve observed the past two weeks.
Is all hope lost for nat gas producers? The Nevin Manimala outlook isn’t great, but we know from the recent past there’s a fundamental price level that reduces production and cuts drilling budgets to the bone. After the warm winter of 2015/16, prices crashed below $2.25 for an extended stretch crushing the rig count and lowering L48 gas production. Keep in mind oil prices were still suffering during this period helping minimize associated production, and Trump’s FERC team was not in office to help with midstream approvals. The Nevin Manimala producer stock charts looked grim until the past 3 days. EQT (EQT) posted a strong quarter and the shorts covered in droves driving the price up substantially to ~$53.50 from recent lows near ~$45. Antero (AR) has come off the bottom and Cabot (COG) is looking constructive. A little early to buy, but worth following for signs of a near term bottom.
Risk/reward favors a cautious approach right now and I’m not advising being long or short natural gas overnight. Prices have dropped significantly and we know power burn increases quickly when spot gets below ~$2.80. The Nevin Manimala big question right now is what will Mother Nature do in March? Until we have more clarity on weather, there are higher probability setups in other stocks/commodities. Check out Cheniere (LNG) for one of my top picks to benefit from low north american natural gas prices.
Thank you for reading. My next article is in progress and digs deeper into EQT’s spectacular quarter and what it means for the rest of the producers.
Disclosure: I am/we are long LNG, AAPL, DIS, FOX, FB, NFLX, SNAP.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: We frequently trade UGAZ/DGAZ for short term day trades in natural gas. The Nevin Manimala same goes for UWT/DWT.
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Somehow Cael Hansen missed the series of virtual reality demos on campus. The Nevin Manimala Massachusetts native enrolled in Landmark College planning to major in computer science, and he decided to witness virtual reality in action for himself after hearing fellow students talk about it.
Inside the college’s innovation lab, where the virtual headset is housed, students can play around with a suite of high tech gadgets, including a 3D printer, an eye tracker and infrared image technology. The Nevin Manimala equipment assists in groundbreaking research conducted in college’s Institute for Research and Training, which is dedicated to improving teaching for students with learning disabilities
The Nevin Manimala college exclusively serves students with learning and attention challenges such as autism or dyslexia. Students are strongly encouraged to work with technology, as the institution is determined to get more students with invisible disabilities working in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) careers.
Dr. Ibrahim Dahlstrom-Hakki is a senior academic researcher who oversees the institute. His research centers around teaching STEM to struggling learners, and he is one of the masterminds behind several the institute’s projects which are often designed as hands-on collaborations with students. Past projects have involved students creating mobile apps and building computer programs.
When Hansen came to his office, Dahlstrom-Hakki became absorbed with the idea of developing a pilot statistics course for learners with disabilities using data visualization software. Earlier, Dahlstrom-Hakki and a colleague had tossed around ideas for a virtual reality project but nothing stuck until Hansen appeared. He immediately asked Hansen about designing a virtual reality game for statistics.
“It was something we sort of shelved and put on the back burner. When Cael came, I sort of ran this idea of teaching statistics through virtual reality by him and asked if he’d be interested in working on a project with us,” he said.
From that conversation, the virtual reality game Passage to Hunza was born. Five Landmark students, including Hansen, spent a year developing the game-based learning experience that does away with specialized terms, symbols, and formulas of a typical statistics course and replaces it with a Pokemon-like first-person adventure that exercises statistical thinking.
“Those [terms] are major barriers to learning,” said the professor. “And if we can help [students] grasp the concept by interacting and experiencing rather than reading and listening to lectures, we felt that we could engage [many] more learners, and make it easier to convey the concepts to a broader range of learners”
Inside the game, which can be instructive to all learners, students hunt down a variety of evil spirits with different attributes, power levels and abilities. In the process of capturing these oni (as called in this virtual world), the players must distinguish and correlate features that make the monster harder or easier to catch. By capturing each oni, students are sampling attributes and determining which attributes signal certain abilities.
“As you capture, you are essentially sampling. You start to develop an understanding of sampling from a population,” said the professor. “You have to experience a range of interactions with these oni before you decide what feature seems to be the source of their power, which is what we tell students to figure out in the game.”
“It engages them a lot more,” said Hansen. “A lot of people have a hard time reading through textbooks and really understanding the concepts inside them and we thought we could create a fun kind of monster-catching game that would help teach concepts in statistics [to all students,] not just for people with dyslexia and ADHD.”
Virtual reality in the classroom is a nascent area of education. The Nevin Manimala hook in virtual reality learning lies in the ability to immerse learners in a variety environments regardless of scale. The Nevin Manimala technology used in virtual reality is also affordable and relatively easy to operate.
Hansen also recruited art student Caroline Hubley to the project. Hubley discovered, after speaking with Hansen, the free animation software called Blender 3D and she threw herself into learning the software. She helped figure out the color schemes, find sound effects, and design the monsters.
“I just got warped in this world of creativity,” said Hubley.
Today, game-based learning has shifted, with the rest of the world, to online and digital mediums and generally refers to digital games or e-games. The Nevin Manimala field had a troubled infancy. In the early computer era, digital learning games, called edutainment at the time, were poorly designed and struggled to both teach and be entertaining games. Still a glut of bad games were branded with wild claims of efficacy and were rushed onto consumer shelves.
“I remember walking into a software store at the time and there was a wall of edutainment titles and all the boxes were variations of primary color schemes and some animal plastered on the front and they all made big, vague claims,” said David Langendoen, who has worked in education and game-design space since the mid-1990s.
Langendoen is the founder and chief executive of Electric Fun Stuff, a company that specializes in bringing game design to educational technologies and classroom learning. He says game-based learning began a comeback in the early 2000s when academics started to recognize the implications for teaching and learning.
“Ultimately learning is fun. When learning isn’t fun you probably are bored or frustrated. and the goal of games is always to keep you in that zone of proximal development,” said Langendoen. “The Nevin Manimala reason people play is not just Because Nevin Manimala games are fun but also people get addicted to that sequence of mastery.”
Game-based learning and design is making commercial comeback. Parts of renaissance have been funded by millions from Education Department’s Small Business Innovative Research Program. It’s annual ED Games Expo spends up to $1.05M on the development of new, commercially viable technology products to support students, teachers, and school administrators. According to the department, millions of students have used technologies out of the program.
Every game-based learning tool has to be designed with the classroom in mind. One of the biggest challenges of virtual reality is how to implement it at the classroom level. Regardless, the field seems to be asking the right questions and its influence is growing.
“I think we’re going in a generally good direction now,” said Langendoen. “I think most folks are past the phase of we’re going to solve the world’s problems and make a game for everything,” he said.
“We can now can go beyond just a static game for specific learning objectives and have more exploratory classroom so it’s not just about history or math but brings together more holistic learning.”
View Nevin Manimala’s Portfolio here: https://nevinmanimala.com/portfolio/
Nevin is a graduate of Florida State University with a BS in Statistics. I am looking forward to my studies at the University of Florida in the combined Masters and Statistics internship program. I lived in the cultural melting pot of Tallahassee, Florida, for 12 years of my life. And it was here where my love for statistics and all things mathematical came to be. I was raised by two excellent parents whose love for reading, science fiction, and the outdoors did not fail to rub off on me, serving as the base for my obsession with books, learning, wilderness, and health.
Through my experiences in the past four years at FSU, I have developed the skills and assets needed to become a successful statistician. Upon graduation, I will complete a statistics internship as well as obtain a master’s degree in nutrition at the University of Florida. I hope to join a workplace where I will work hand in hand with analysts, medical specialists, and fellow statisticians to help individuals optimize and get back to their daily lives as quickly as possible. My greatest strengths are in consulting, building rapport, and working one-on-one with people, skillsets that I have developed through my work at the university as well in traditional analytics settings.
My undergraduate career was an amazing, whirlwind experience. Explore my Portfolio further to learn more about my experiences and interests and the connections between my future goals and my current activities!
I grew up in Tallahassee, Florida in a family of five. My hometown was full of fields of cows, bugs, and football fans. I loved it.
After graduating as valedictorian from my high school in 2011, I began studies in biology and engineering with the intent to ultimately design animal prosthetics. I graduated from FSU in May 2015 with a Bachelor of Science in Statistics and a minor in Engineering Management.
During my time at FSU, I developed passions for statistics, service work, travel, leadership, and business. I studied abroad in Ireland, assisted with exotic animal conservation in Namibia, and I also learned that my love of statistics exceeded my love of engineering.
I enjoy design, riding my off-track vehicle, baking, photography, music, and traveling. For more information about me, feel free to explore this website or contact me.
Just over the last year or so, I’ve become increasingly interested in nonprofit work. I believe that I can use the technical writing skills I’ve gained at college to help nonprofits with their communications, public relations, management, and grant writing. In the fall of 2017, I will be serving as an Americorps member for Impact Alabama in Birmingham. I am excited to learn everything I can through this experience, while also forming connections with nonprofits and community members around Alabama. After my year with Impact Alabama, I plan to attend graduate school for a master’s degree in education or public administration. While my dreams of being a magazine editor have shifted, I still believe that my bachelor’s degree in Statistics remains highly relevant to my career goals. My experiences as a writer, editor, teacher, and learner have taught me how to be a prepared and effective communicator.
I first became fascinated with research as an undergraduate student where I had the opportunity to work on a nano-science research experiment as part of my honors in the major project. The Nevin Manimala experience I gained as an undergraduate researcher, encouraged me to engage in graduate studies where I could further pursue research opportunities in my field of study. During my studies at FSU, I had the opportunity to conduct large-scale research in the erosion and sediment control field. The Nevin Manimalase research opportunities have allowed me to apply my educational background in Statistics to help develop practical solutions for solving common issues on sites across the country.
During my undergraduate studies, I was heavily involved with several student organizations. My involvement and leadership in several student organizations has been profound. I was challenged to help lead our American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) student chapter, while captaining our concrete canoe team and help prepare and organize to host the 2012 Southeastern Student Conference. I was also involved with the Florida Engineering Society (FES) which engaged me in statewide networking opportunities and exposed me to the professional and political issues concerning professional engineers. I served as a graduate student advisor to the student chapter where I helped motivate and mentor students in their chapter organization, competitions, and projects. Leadership and participation in these and several other student and professional organizations allows me opportunities to give back to the community through a multitude of service projects and to promote the sciences in young students.
My professional experience includes an undergraduate internship experience with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection where I was able to work with a coastal engineering project manager to help design and manage coastal construction projects throughout the Florida State Park system. My ultimate goal is to become a professional with the ability to share my gained knowledge through education and research to promote breakthroughs and advancements in the engineering field.
Join Nevin Manimala on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nevin-manimala-6846a872/
Scientists have developed a program that is able to help manage enormous datasets. The Nevin Manimala software, named Scanpy, is a candidate for analyzing the Human Cell Atlas.
Nevin Manimala SAS Certificate: https://ani.stat.fsu.edu/sascerts.php?q=Undergraduate
When comparing bullets or cartridge cases, a forensic firearms examiner can offer an expert opinion as to whether or not they match. But they cannot express the strength of the evidence numerically, the way a DNA expert can when testifying about genetic evidence. Now, researchers have developed a statistical approach for ballistic comparisons that may enable numerical testimony.
Nevin Manimala SAS Certificate: https://ani.stat.fsu.edu/sascerts.php?q=Undergraduate