Nevin Manimala

PLoS One. 2025 Jan 2;20(1):e0316289. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0316289. eCollection 2025.

ABSTRACT

Predicting incident duration and understanding incident types are essential in traffic management for resource optimization and disruption minimization. Precise predictions enable the efficient deployment of response teams and strategic traffic rerouting, leading to reduced congestion and enhanced safety. Furthermore, an in-depth understanding of incident types helps in implementing preventive measures and formulating strategies to alleviate their influence on road networks. In this paper, we present a comprehensive framework for accurately predicting incident duration, with a particular emphasis on the critical role of street conditions and locations as major incident triggers. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework, we performed an in-depth case study using a dataset from San Francisco. We introduce a novel feature called “Risk” derived from the Risk Priority Number (RPN) concept, highlighting the significance of the incident location in both incident occurrence and prediction. Additionally, we propose a refined incident categorization through fuzzy clustering methods, delineating a unique policy for identifying boundary clusters that necessitate further modeling and testing under varying scenarios. Each cluster undergoes a Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process to gain deeper insights into their distinctions and provide valuable managerial insights. Finally, we employ both traditional Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) models to perform classification and regression tasks. Specifically, incidents residing in boundary clusters are predicted utilizing the scenarios outlined in this study. Through a rigorous analysis of feature importance using top-performing predictive models, we identify the “Risk” factor as a critical determinant of incident duration. Moreover, variables such as distance, humidity, and hour demonstrate significant influence, further enhancing the predictive power of the proposed model.

PMID:39746103 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0316289

PLoS One. 2025 Jan 2;20(1):e0312316. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0312316. eCollection 2025.

ABSTRACT

Most deaths among children under 5 years occur within the first 24 hours of hospital admission from preventable causes such as diarrhea, pneumonia, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The predictors of these deaths are not yet well documented in our setting. This study aimed to describe the patterns and predictors of these mortalities among children aged 1-59 months at a regional hospital in South Western Uganda. We conducted a prospective cohort study among 208 children aged 1-59 months admitted to Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital. The mortality rate within the first 24 hours was 7.7% (95% CI 4-12) and the median time to death was 7.3(2.62-8.75) hours. Most deaths occurred in infants, with severe pneumonia, severe acute malnutrition, and malaria as leading causes. Factors predicting mortality included admission during the night (AHR: 3.7, 95% CI 1.02-13.53, p-value 0.047) and abnormal neutrophil count(AHR: 3.5, 95% CI 1.10-11.31, p-value 0.034). The study highlights the importance of timely interventions, particularly for infants, and suggests extra monitoring for those admitted at night or with abnormal neutrophil counts.

PMID:39746100 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0312316

PLoS One. 2025 Jan 2;20(1):e0316357. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0316357. eCollection 2025.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Accelerometers are widely adopted for physical activity (PA) measurement. Accelerometry data require pre-processing before entering formal statistical analyses. Many pre-processing criteria may influence PA outcomes and the processed sample, impacting results in subsequent statistical analyses.

AIM: To study the implications of pre-processing criteria for accelerometer data on outputs of interest in physical activity studies.

METHODS: We used the ActiGraph hip-worn accelerometry data from 538 adult Latino participants. We studied four most important domains of pre-processing criteria (wear-time, minimum wear-time, intensity level, and modified bouts). We examined the true sample size in pre-processed data, the moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) outcome, and regression coefficients of age and gender predicting MVPA.

RESULTS: Many pre-processing criteria have minimum impact to the output of interest. However, requirements for minimum wear-time can have high influence on subsequent analyses for MVPA. High requirements for wear-time (e.g., minimum of 5 days with more than 12 hours of wear-time per day) lead to weakened statistical efficiency in estimating the relationship between potential predictors and the MVPA outcome. Intensity levels using vector magnitude triaxial counts yielded drastically different results than those using conventional vertical axis counts.

CONCLUSION: Moderate changes in minimum wear-time can yield notably different output data and subsequently influence analyses assessing the impacts of interventions on MVPA behaviors. Processed data using vector magnitude and conventional vertical axis counts are not directly comparable. Sensitivity analyses using alternative pre-processing scenarios are highly recommended to verify the robustness of analyses for accelerometry data.

PMID:39746092 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0316357

JAMA Surg. 2025 Jan 2. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2024.5913. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Increasing evidence supports the oncologic safety of de-escalating axillary surgery for patients with breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the oncologic outcomes of de-escalating axillary surgery among patients with clinically node (cN)-positive breast cancer and patients whose disease became cN negative after NAC (ycN negative).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In the NEOSENTITURK MF-1803 prospective cohort registry trial, patients from 37 centers with cT1-4N1-3M0 disease treated with sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) or targeted axillary dissection (TAD) alone or with ypN-negative or ypN-positive disease after NAC were recruited between February 15, 2019, and January 1, 2023, and evaluated.

EXPOSURE: Treatment with SLNB or TAD after NAC.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary aim of the study was axillary, locoregional, or distant recurrence rates; disease-free survival; and disease-specific survival. Number of axillary lymph nodes removed was also evaluated.

RESULTS: A total of 976 patients (median age, 46 years [range, 21-80 years]) with cT1-4N1-3M0 disease underwent SLNB (n = 620) or TAD alone (n = 356). Most of the cohort had a mapping procedure with blue dye alone (645 [66.1%]) with (n = 177) or without (n = 468) TAD. Overall, no difference was found between patients treated with TAD and patients treated with SLNB in the median number of total lymph nodes removed (TAD, 4 [3-6] vs SLNB, 4 [3-6]; P = .09). Among patients with ypN-positive disease, those who underwent TAD were more likely to have a lower median lymph node ratio (TAD, 0.28 [IQR, 0.20-0.40] vs SLNB, 0.33 [IQR, 0.20-0.50]; P = .03). At a median follow-up of 39 months (IQR, 29-48 months), no significant difference was found in the rates of ipsilateral axillary recurrence (0.3% [1 of 356] vs 0.3% [2 of 620]; P ≥ .99) or locoregional recurrence (0.6% [2 of 356] vs 1.1% [7 of 620]; P = .50) between the TAD and SLNB groups, with an overall locoregional recurrence rate of 0.9% (9 of 976). The initial clinical tumor stage, pathologic complete response, and use of blue dye alone as a mapping procedure were not associated with the outcome. Even though patients with TAD demonstrated an increased disease-free survival rate compared with the SLNB group, this difference did not reach statistical significance (94.9% vs 92.6%; P = .07). Factors associated with decreased 5-year disease-specific survival were cN2-3 axillary stage (cN1, 98.7% vs cN2-3, 96.8%; P = .03) and nonluminal type tumor pathologic characteristics (luminal, 98.9% vs nonluminal, 96.9%; P = .007).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The short-term results suggest very low rates of axillary and locoregional recurrence in a select group of patients with cN-negative disease after NAC treated with TAD alone or SLNB alone followed by regional nodal irradiation regardless of the SLNB technique or nodal pathology. Whether TAD might provide a clear survival advantage compared with SLNB remains to be proven in studies with longer follow-up.

PMID:39745737 | DOI:10.1001/jamasurg.2024.5913

JAMA Netw Open. 2025 Jan 2;8(1):e2451361. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.51361.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: CHEK2 pathogenic and likely pathogenic variants (PVs) are common, and low-risk (LR) variants, p.I157T, p.S428F, and p.T476M, are even more common. Biallelic CHEK2 PVs are associated with specific cancer phenotypes, including early age at onset of breast cancers. Whether biallelic LR variants are associated with cancer predisposition is unknown.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the cancer phenotype among individuals with biallelic CHEK2 variants, specifically those that have been associated with lower cancer risk in the heterozygous state.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective observational cohort study examining cancer phenotype by CHEK2 genotype was conducted at a single diagnostic genetic testing laboratory. Of 36 821 individuals who underwent genetic testing, 3783 (10.3%) with CHEK2 PVs or LR variants were ascertained from July 1, 2012, to September 30, 2019. Analyses were conducted from September 2022 to January 2024.

EXPOSURES: Cancer phenotype among individuals with 2 LR variants and those with 1 PV and 1 LR variant was compared with cancer phenotype among individuals with wild type (WT) (n = 33 034), single LR variant (n = 1566), single PV controls (n = 2167), and 2 PVs (n = 21). Cancer phenotypes were investigated for any cancer, multiple primary cancers, female breast cancer, and bilateral female breast cancers.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cancer phenotype of CHEK2 2 LRs and 1 PV and 1 LR.

RESULTS: Of 36 821 individuals, 92.1% were female, and the median age at testing was 53 years (IQR, 44-63 years); 3787 (10.3%) were identified as having a CHEK2 PV or LR variant. There were 13 individuals with 2 LR variants and 20 with 1 PV and 1 LR variant. Among those with 2 LR variants, prevalence of any cancer (76.9%) and breast cancer (60.0%) were similar to those with WT (any cancer, 69.8%; breast cancer, 52.7%) and those with a single LR variant (any cancer, 70.9%; breast cancer, 57.5%). Among participants with 1 PV and 1 LR variant, 95.0% had a prior cancer diagnosis, a higher rate than among those with a single PV (76.8%), but the difference was not statistically significant. Among female individuals with 1 PV and 1 LR variant, 86.7% had a breast cancer diagnosis, compared with 67.1% with a single PV, although these differences were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, individuals with 2 LR variants in CHEK2 had a cancer phenotype similar to those with a single LR variant and similar to WT controls. Individuals with 1 PV and 1 LR variant may have a more penetrant cancer phenotype than individuals with a single PV. Future studies focused on CHEK2 LR variants will aid in better understanding whether these variants are genetic modifiers associated with cancer risk.

PMID:39745704 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.51361

JAMA Netw Open. 2025 Jan 2;8(1):e2452168. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.52168.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Spousal involvement in diabetes care is recommended theoretically, but effectiveness in clinical settings and among diverse populations is unclear.

OBJECTIVE: To test the effect of a couple-based intervention among Chinese older patients with type 2 diabetes and their spouses.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This multicenter randomized clinical trial comprised 2 arms: a couple-based intervention arm and an individual-based control. The trial was conducted across 14 community health care centers in Guangzhou, China, between September 1, 2020, and June 30, 2022, and included patients with confirmed type 2 diabetes aged 55 years or older. Eligible partners were married to or cohabitated with the patients. Patients who previously participated in type 2 diabetes education courses were excluded, as were couples who both had diabetes, to make a clear distinction between patients and spouses. The data were analyzed between January 2023 and April 2024.

INTERVENTIONS: The interventions consisted of 4 weekly group education sessions followed by behavior change booster telephone calls over 2 months that targeted either patients and spouses (ie, intervention arm) or patients alone (ie, control arm). Follow-up assessments were conducted at 6 and 12 months post intervention.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels for patients and quality of life for their spouses. Collective efficacy and behaviors were secondary outcomes for both patients and spouses. Group comparisons were conducted using multilevel models based on an intention-to-treat approach, with outcome measures assessed for both patients and their spouses.

RESULTS: A total of 207 couples were included in the study, with 106 randomized to the intervention arm and 101 to the control arm. The mean (SD) age of patients was 66.0 (6.5) years, with 105 (50.7%) being men; spouses had similar demographics. Patients’ HbA1c levels decreased in both arms over the 12-month follow-up, with no significant between-arm differences (β = -0.08; 95% CI, -0.57 to 0.42). Collective efficacy and collective behavior for patients increased after intervention but with a similar magnitude between arms. None of these measures showed between-arm differences among spouses in either arm. In subgroup analysis, decreases in HbA1c levels were constant and lasting in patients with high baseline HbA1c levels (≥8.0%) with a statistically significant difference.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings show that the overall treatment effect of the couple-based intervention was weak. However, the couple-based intervention benefited patients with poor glucose control. Patients’ glucose levels, spouses’ availability to provide support, and couples’ collaborative preferences for mutual or individual diabetes management should be considered in tailoring treatment strategies among older adults with type 2 diabetes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry Identifier: ChiCTR1900027137.

PMID:39745703 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.52168

JAMA Netw Open. 2025 Jan 2;8(1):e2452677. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.52677.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Influenza vaccination remains the most important intervention to prevent influenza morbidity and mortality among nursing home residents. The additional effectiveness of recombinant influenza vaccine vs standard dose vaccines was demonstrated in outpatient older adults but has not been evaluated in nursing home populations.

OBJECTIVE: To compare hospitalization rates among residents in nursing homes immunized with a recombinant vs a standard dose egg-based influenza vaccine.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This pragmatic cluster randomized trial assessed nursing home residents 65 years or older residing in a US facility for 100 or more days before the start of influenza season (October 1). The study was conducted across the 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021 influenza seasons and randomly assigned nursing homes 1:1 within blocks categorized by proportion of Black residents and prior resident hospitalization rates. Medicare claims data were used to evaluate resident-level hospitalization outcomes. Enrollment and allocation to treatment groups began on July 20, 2019. Data analysis began on January 1, 2021, with primary end points finalized June 30, 2024.

INTERVENTION: Nursing homes were cluster randomized to vaccinate all residents with recombinant quadrivalent influenza vaccine (RIV4) or standard egg-based quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4).

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was respiratory-related hospitalization. Secondary outcomes included death and hospitalization due to any cause.

RESULTS: A total of 144 565 person observations (mean [SD] age, 77.4 [13.1] years; 63.0% female) at 1078 nursing homes were included, with 72 005 residents in nursing homes randomized to provide RIV4 and 72 560 residents in nursing home randomized to provide IIV4. In total, 85.6% of the residents received influenza vaccination. Baseline resident characteristics were comparable across treatment groups. For the primary end point of respiratory-related hospitalizations, there were 1387 hospitalizations (1.9%) in the RIV4 group vs 1424 (2.0%) in the IIV4 group (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.62-2.17). Hospitalization rates by vaccine were similar for other hospitalization outcomes and death, overall, and by season and subgroups (gender, race, and comorbidities).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cluster randomized trial of nursing homes, there was no significant difference between recombinant or standard dose vaccine for reducing hospitalizations associated with influenza illness. However, the COVID-19 pandemic restricting influenza activity along with poor vaccine match to circulating strains substantially limits the conclusions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT03965195.

PMID:39745702 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.52677

JAMA Netw Open. 2025 Jan 2;8(1):e2452821. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.52821.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Evolving breast cancer treatments have led to improved outcomes but carry a substantial financial burden. The association of treatment costs with the cost-effectiveness of screening mammography is unknown.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the cost-effectiveness of population-based breast cancer screening in the context of current treatment standards.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this economic evaluation, the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer/Statistics Canada OncoSim-Breast microsimulation model was used to estimate the impact of various screening schedules in terms of clinical outcomes and treatment costs. Breast cancer treatment costs were derived from activity-based costing published in 2023 specific to a publicly funded health system in Ontario, Canada. A single birth cohort of individuals assigned female at birth in 1975 was modeled until death or age 99 years (whichever came first).

EXPOSURES: Five screening scenarios were modeled: no screening, biennial (ages 50-74 years and 40-74 years), hybrid (biennial ages 40-49 years and annual ages 50-74 years), and annual screening (ages 40-74 years).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for deaths averted, life-years (LYs) gained, and incremental cost-utility ratios for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were determined for screening scenarios. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying screening participation rates and reducing recall rates to 5% and the estimated mortality benefits of screening.

RESULTS: Earlier initiation of breast cancer screening at age 40 years (vs age 50 years) was associated with improved clinical outcomes (deaths averted, LYs saved, and QALYs gained) and reduced health care spending on breast cancer treatment. From a health system perspective, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for biennial screening at ages 40 to 74 years compared with biennial screening at ages 50 to 74 years were cost saving, with CAD$49 759 saved per death averted, $1558 per LY saved, and $2007 saved per QALY gained. Annual screening at ages 40 to 74 years was cost-effective while achieving the best breast cancer outcomes, with costs of $25 501 per death averted, $1100 per LY saved, and $1447 per QALY gained compared with the current Canadian standard of biennial screening at ages 50 to 74 years.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this economic analysis, although screening costs increased according to the number of lifetime screens, they were completely or largely offset by reduced breast cancer therapy costs. Digital mammography was a highly cost-effective tool to reduce breast cancer mortality. These results have important policy implications for all single-payer health systems and call for greater investment in screening programs.

PMID:39745700 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.52821

JAMA Netw Open. 2025 Jan 2;8(1):e2452890. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.52890.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer are the leading causes of mortality in the US. Large-scale population-based and mechanistic studies support a direct effect of CVD on accelerated tumor growth and spread, specifically in breast cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether individuals presenting with advanced breast cancers are more likely to have prevalent CVD compared with those with early-stage breast cancers at the time of diagnosis.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based case-control study used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked databases from 2009 to 2020. The analysis was completed from May 2023 to August 2024. Participants were female patients aged at least 66 years diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. Cases were matched with controls by breast cancer stage at diagnosis and propensity scores using factors known to be associated with delayed cancer diagnosis.

EXPOSURE: Prevalent CVD prior to breast cancer diagnosis.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The outcome of interest was the odds of locally advanced (T3-4 or N+) or metastatic (M+) breast cancer status at diagnosis.

RESULTS: The full analytic cohort included 19 292 matched individuals, with median (IQR) age 73 (70-79) years, of whom 1676 (8.7%) were Black and 16 681 (86.5%) were White; 9478 individuals (49.1%) had prevalent CVD. Propensity score-matched, multivariable-adjusted models found that individuals with locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis had statistically significantly increased odds of prevalent CVD (odds ratio [OR], 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17; P = .007). This association was observed among hormone receptor-positive (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.19; P = .006) but not hormone receptor-negative (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.86-1.21; P = .83) breast cancer. ORs were directionally consistent when separately examining locally advanced (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.17; P = .02) and metastatic (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.94-1.54; P = .15) disease, among all receptor subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This case-control study found that individuals with more advanced breast cancer at diagnosis were more likely to have prevalent CVD. This finding may be specific to hormone receptor-positive and ERBB2-negative (formerly HER2) disease. Future studies are needed to confirm these findings and investigate interventions to improve patient outcomes, including personalized cancer screening.

PMID:39745699 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.52890

JAMA Surg. 2025 Jan 2. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2024.5920. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Growing trends in private equity acquisition of acute care hospitals in the US have motivated investigations into quality of care delivered at these health centers. While some studies have explored comparative outcomes for high-acuity medical conditions, care trends and outcomes of complex surgical procedures, such as esophagectomy, at private equity-acquired hospitals is unknown.

OBJECTIVE: To compare structural characteristics and postoperative outcomes following esophagectomy between private equity-acquired and nonacquired health centers.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective cohort study included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 to 99 years who underwent elective esophagectomy at US health centers between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2020. Health centers were designated as private equity acquired using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Compendium of US Health Systems. Data were analyzed between October 15, 2023, and March 30, 2024.

EXPOSURE: Patient cohorts were created based on whether they received care at private equity-acquired or nonacquired health centers.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was 30-day postoperative complications, mortality, failure to rescue, and readmission using summary statistics and multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS: A total of 9462 patients (mean [SD] age, 72.9 [5.6] years; 6970 male [73.7%]) underwent esophagectomy during the study period, with 517 (5.5%) receiving care at private equity-acquired institutions. Annual procedure volume was lower at private equity-acquired hospitals vs nonacquired hospitals (median, 2 [IQR, 1-4] vs 7 [IQR, 3-15] procedures per year). Compared with patients treated at nonacquired hospitals, patients treated at private equity-acquired hospitals had significantly higher 30-day mortality (8.1% [95% CI, 5.8%-10.3%] vs 4.9% [95% CI, 4.5%-5.3%]; odds ratio [OR], 1.82 [95% CI, 1.25-2.64]; P = .002), any complications (36.6% [95% CI, 32.9%-40.3%] vs 30.1% [95% CI, 29.2%-30.9%]; OR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.18-1.80]), serious complications (17.5% [95% CI, 14.5%-20.6%] vs 14.3% [95% CI, 13.7%-15.0%]; OR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.03-1.77]; P = .03), and failure to rescue (5.9% [95% CI, 3.9%-7.9%] vs 3.4% [95% CI, 3.1%-3.8%]; OR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.22-2.84]; P = .004).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that patients who undergo esophagectomy at private equity-acquired hospitals may be at risk for worse outcomes. Further understanding of the drivers of these outcomes is needed to improve performance and inform policy pertaining to care allocation for select surgical conditions.

PMID:39745696 | DOI:10.1001/jamasurg.2024.5920