Nevin Manimala

Chaos. 2024 Mar 1;34(3):031101. doi: 10.1063/5.0195042.

ABSTRACT

Detecting early warning indicators for abrupt dynamical transitions in complex systems or high-dimensional observation data are essential in many real-world applications, such as brain diseases, natural disasters, and engineering reliability. To this end, we develop a novel approach: the directed anisotropic diffusion map that captures the latent evolutionary dynamics in the low-dimensional manifold. Then three effective warning signals (Onsager-Machlup indicator, sample entropy indicator, and transition probability indicator) are derived through the latent coordinates and the latent stochastic dynamical systems. To validate our framework, we apply this methodology to authentic electroencephalogram data. We find that our early warning indicators are capable of detecting the tipping point during state transition. This framework not only bridges the latent dynamics with real-world data but also shows the potential ability for automatic labeling on complex high-dimensional time series.

PMID:38442235 | DOI:10.1063/5.0195042

Chaos. 2024 Mar 1;34(3):033108. doi: 10.1063/5.0187866.

ABSTRACT

Nonlinear dynamical systems with control parameters may not be well modeled by shallow neural networks. In this paper, the stable fixed-point solutions, periodic and chaotic solutions of the parameter-dependent Lorenz system are learned simultaneously via a very deep neural network. The proposed deep learning model consists of a large number of identical linear layers, which provide excellent nonlinear mapping capability. Residual connections are applied to ease the flow of information and a large training dataset is further utilized. Extensive numerical results show that the chaotic solutions can be accurately forecasted for several Lyapunov times and long-term predictions are achieved for periodic solutions. Additionally, the dynamical characteristics such as bifurcation diagrams and largest Lyapunov exponents can be well recovered from the learned solutions. Finally, the principal factors contributing to the high prediction accuracy are discussed.

PMID:38442234 | DOI:10.1063/5.0187866

Chaos. 2024 Mar 1;34(3):033109. doi: 10.1063/5.0186899.

ABSTRACT

Vaccination is the most effective way to control the epidemic spreading. However, the probability of people getting vaccinated changes with the epidemic situation due to personal psychology. Facing various risks, some people are reluctant to vaccinate and even prefer herd immunity. To encourage people to get vaccinated, many countries set up reward mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a disease transmission model combining vaccination behaviors based on the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model and introduce three vaccination mechanisms. We analyze the impact of the infection rate and the recovery rate on the total cost and the epidemic prevalence. Numerical simulations fit with our intuitive feelings. Then, we study the impact of vaccination rewards on the total social cost. We find that when vaccination rewards offset vaccination costs, both the total cost and the epidemic prevalence reach the lowest levels. Finally, this paper suggests that encouraging people to get vaccinated at the beginning of an epidemic has the best effect.

PMID:38442233 | DOI:10.1063/5.0186899

J Orthop Trauma. 2024 Mar 4. doi: 10.1097/BOT.0000000000002793. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the femoral neck fracture literature frequently report p-values for outcomes which have substantial implications in guiding surgical management. This study utilized the fragility index (FI), reverse fragility index (rFI), and fragility quotient (FQ) to assess the statistical stability of outcomes reported in RCTs evaluating the management and treatment of femoral neck fractures.

METHODS: Data Sources: Pubmed, Emabse, and MEDLINE were queried for RCTs (January 1, 2010 to February 28th, 2023) that evaluated surgical management/treatment of femoral neck fractures. Study Selection: RCTs with two treatment arms reporting categorical dichotomous outcomes were included. Non-RCT studies, RCTs with greater than 2 treatment arms, and RCTs without a femoral neck fracture cohort were excluded.Data Extraction and Synthesis: The FI and rFI were calculated as the number of outcome event reversals required to alter statistical significance for significant (p<0.05) and non-significant (p≥0.05) outcomes, respectively. The FQ was calculated by dividing the FI by the sample size for the study.

RESULTS: 985 articles were screened with 71 studies included for analysis. The median FI across a total of 197 outcomes was 4 (IQR 2-5) with an associated FQ of 0.033 (IQR 0.017-0.060). 47 outcomes were statistically significant with a median FI of 2 (IQR 1-4) and associated FQ of 0.02 (IQR 0.014-0.043). 150 outcomes were statistically non-significant with a median rFI of 4 (IQR 3-5) and associated FQ of 0.037 (IQR 0.019-0.065).

CONCLUSION: Statistical findings in femoral neck fracture RCTs are fragile with reversal of a median 4 outcomes altering significance of study findings. The authors thus recommend standardized reporting of p-values with FI and FQ metrics to aid in interpreting the robustness of outcomes in femoral neck fracture RCTs.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level I. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

PMID:38442195 | DOI:10.1097/BOT.0000000000002793

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Mar 12;121(11):e2401501121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2401501121. Epub 2024 Mar 5.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:38442177 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2401501121

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Mar 12;121(11):e2321882121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2321882121. Epub 2024 Mar 5.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:38442168 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2321882121

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Mar 12;121(11):e2321196121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2321196121. Epub 2024 Mar 5.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:38442167 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2321196121

PLoS One. 2024 Mar 5;19(3):e0300030. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0300030. eCollection 2024.

ABSTRACT

Community-based tourism (CBT) in Thailand faces challenges in adapting to COVID-19 prevention measures. The purpose of the study was to evaluate levels of knowledge, practice, and compliance regarding safety and health measures of the entrepreneur in managing CBT under the Safety and Health Administration (SHA) standard in the new normal situation. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on twenty-one entrepreneurs from three CBTs in three districts in Nakhon Si Thammarat, in the months of February-May 2021. Levels of knowledge and practice were evaluated by questionnaires and compliance level was evaluated by SHA standard checklist. The level of knowledge and practice were categorized sufficient and insufficient, while compliance level was categorized as high or low if scores met or exceeded 80%, based on Bloom’s cut-off point. Information on sociodemographic characteristics was also gathered. Fisher’s exact test with a 95% confidence level (α < 0.05) was used for statistical analysis. The findings revealed that 66.7% and 38.1% of the establishments in the study had sufficient knowledge (Mean ± SD: 46.9 ± 7.2, Max: 55.0, Min: 33.0) and sufficient practice (Mean ± SD: 40.4 ± 9.2, Max: 55.0, Min: 29.0), respectively. In addition, the study found that knowledge level was significantly associated with practice level at a p-value of 0.018. However, compliance level was not related to knowledge and practice. In conclusion, the low level of compliance was due to a lack of understanding and motivation to comply with the standard, and the budget of small establishments in CBT for bringing them up to the SHA standard was quite limited. Therefore, the related organizations should use a variety of strategies to encourage entrepreneurs, such as partnership building and resource support.

PMID:38442100 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0300030

PLoS One. 2024 Mar 5;19(3):e0299026. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0299026. eCollection 2024.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The peripheral immune system is altered in Parkinson’s disease (PD), but the causal relationship between the two remains controversial. In this study, we aimed to estimate the causal relationship between peripheral immune features and PD using a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) approach.

METHODS: Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data of peripheral blood immune signatures from European populations were used for exposure and PD summary statistics were used as results. We conducted a two-sample MR study using the inverse-variance weighted (IVW), MR-Egger, and weighted median methods to evaluate the causal association between these factors. MR-Egger and MR-PRESSO were used for sensitivity analysis to test and correct horizontal pleiotropy.

RESULTS: A total of 731 immune traits were analyzed for association with PD using three MR methods. After adjustment for FDR, we observed four peripheral immunological features associated with PD using the IVW method, including expression of CX3CR1 on monocytes [OR: 0.85, 95% CI: (0.81, 0.91), P = 6.56E-07] and CX3CR1 on CD14+CD16+ monocytes [OR: 0.87, 95% CI: (0.82, 0.93), P = 9.95E-06].

CONCLUSIONS: Our study further revealed the important role of monocytes in PD and indicated that CX3CR1 expression on monocytes is associated with a reduced risk of PD.

PMID:38442099 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0299026

PLoS One. 2024 Mar 5;19(3):e0297625. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297625. eCollection 2024.

ABSTRACT

Narcolepsy type 1 (NT1) is an enigmatic sleep disorder characterized by the selective loss of neurons producing orexin (also named hypocretin) in the lateral hypothalamus. Although NT1 is believed to be an autoimmune disease, the orexinergic neuron-specific antigens targeted by the pathogenic immune response remain elusive. In this study, we evaluated the differential binding capacity of various peptides to serum immunoglobin G from patients with NT1 and other hypersomnolence complaints (OHCs). These peptides were selected using an unbiased phage display technology or based on their significant presence in the serum of NT1 patients as identified from previous studies. Although the subtractive biopanning strategy successfully enriched phage clones with high reactivity against NT1 serum IgG, the 101 randomly selected individual phage clones could not differentiate the sera from NT1 and OHC. Compared to the OHC control group, serum from several NT1 patients exhibited increased reactivity to the 12-mer peptides derived from TRBV7, BCL-6, NRXN1, RXRG, HCRT, and RTN4 proteins, although not statistically significant. Collectively, employing both unbiased and targeted methodologies, we were unable to detect the presence of specific autoantibodies in our NT1 patient cohort. This further supports the hypothesis that the autoimmune response in NT1 patients likely stems primarily from T cell-mediated immunity rather than humoral immunity.

PMID:38442093 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0297625