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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Design and Early Use of the Nationally Implemented Healthier You National Health Service Digital Diabetes Prevention Programme: Mixed Methods Study

J Med Internet Res. 2023 Aug 17;25:e47436. doi: 10.2196/47436.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Healthier You National Health Service Digital Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS-digital-DPP) is a 9-month digital behavior change intervention delivered by 4 independent providers that is implemented nationally across England. No studies have explored the design features included by service providers of digital diabetes prevention programs to promote engagement, and little is known about how participants of nationally implemented digital diabetes prevention programs such as this one make use of them.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to understand engagement with the NHS-digital-DPP. The specific objectives were to describe how engagement with the NHS-digital-DPP is promoted via design features and strategies and describe participants’ early engagement with the NHS-digital-DPP apps.

METHODS: Mixed methods were used. The qualitative study was a secondary analysis of documents detailing the NHS-digital-DPP intervention design and interviews with program developers (n=6). Data were deductively coded according to an established framework of engagement with digital health interventions. For the quantitative study, anonymous use data collected over 9 months for each provider representing participants’ first 30 days of use of the apps were obtained for participants enrolled in the NHS-digital-DPP. Use data fields were categorized into 4 intervention features (Track, Learn, Coach Interactions, and Peer Support). The amount of engagement with the intervention features was calculated for the entire cohort, and the differences between providers were explored statistically.

RESULTS: Data were available for 12,857 participants who enrolled in the NHS-digital-DPP during the data collection phase. Overall, 94.37% (12,133/12,857) of those enrolled engaged with the apps in the first 30 days. The median (IQR) number of days of use was 11 (2-25). Track features were engaged with the most (number of tracking events: median 46, IQR 3-22), and Peer Support features were the least engaged with, a median value of 0 (IQR 0-0). Differences in engagement with features were observed across providers. Qualitative findings offer explanations for the variations, including suggesting the importance of health coaches, reminders, and regular content updates to facilitate early engagement.

CONCLUSIONS: Almost all participants in the NHS-digital-DPP started using the apps. Differences across providers identified by the mixed methods analysis provide the opportunity to identify features that are important for engagement with digital health interventions and could inform the design of other digital behavior change interventions.

PMID:37590056 | DOI:10.2196/47436

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Association Between the Dietary Inflammatory Index and the Risk of Fracture in Chinese Adults: Longitudinal Study

JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2023 Aug 17;9:e43501. doi: 10.2196/43501.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Chronic inflammation plays a crucial role in tissue injury, osteoporosis, and fracture. The dietary inflammatory index (DII) is a tool for assessing the potential for inflammation in the diet. However, the association between the DII and fractures remains controversial from previous studies.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to explore the correlation between the DII and fracture risk in Chinese adults.

METHODS: We included 11,999 adults (5519 men and 6480 women) who were a part of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1997-2015) prospective cohort. A 3-day, 24-hour meal review method was used to calculate the DII score. The fractures were identified using a questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for fractures. Subgroup, sensitivity, and restricted cubic spline analyses were performed.

RESULTS: During the 18 years of follow-up (median follow-up 9.0 years), 463 men and 439 women developed fractures. The median DII score was 0.64 (IQR -1.74 to 1.46) for the total sample, 0.75 (IQR -1.68 to 1.50) for men, and 0.53 (IQR -1.79 to 1.42) for women. The DII score had a positive correlation with the risk of fracture among women but not among men. For men, after adjusting for covariates, the HRs for quintiles of DII were 1, 0.96 (95% CI 0.66-1.41), 1.05 (95% CI 0.74-1.49), 0.89 (95% CI 0.62-1.26), and 0.94 (95% CI 0.67-1.34; trend: P=.62). The HRs for women were 1, 1.13 (95% CI 0.72-1.79), 1.24 (95% CI 0.83-1.86), 1.51 (95% CI 1.02-2.22), and 1.62 (95% CI 1.10-2.39; trend: P=.004). The restricted cubic spline analysis showed a significant association between fracture risk and DII score in women (overall association: P=.01); as the DII scores were >0.53, HRs showed a significant upward trend. Women aged <50 years or who are nonsmokers, who are nondrinkers, or with nonabdominal obesity had a positive association between fracture risk and the DII score. In sensitivity analyses, after excluding people with diabetes or hypertension, there was still a positive association between fracture risk and the DII score in women. Among the DII components, the DII scores of protein (trend: P=.03), niacin (trend: P=.002), and iron (trend: P=.02) showed significant associations with the risk of fracture in women.

CONCLUSIONS: Proinflammatory diet consumption increased the fracture risk in Chinese women aged <50 years. The high consumption of anti-inflammatory foods and low consumption of proinflammatory foods may be an important strategy to prevent fractures in women.

PMID:37590048 | DOI:10.2196/43501

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Patient Use, Experience, and Satisfaction With Telehealth in an Australian Population (Reimagining Health Care): Web-Based Survey Study

J Med Internet Res. 2023 Aug 17;25:e45016. doi: 10.2196/45016.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a rapid scale-up of telehealth services in Australia as a means to provide continued care through periods of physical restrictions. The factors that influence engagement in telehealth remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to understand the experience of Australian people who engaged in a telehealth consultation during the pandemic period (2020-2021) and the demographic factors that influence engagement.

METHODS: A web-based survey was distributed to Australians aged over 18 years that included 4 questions on frequency and type of clinical consultation, including with a general practitioner (GP), specialist, allied health, or nurse; 1 question on the experience of telehealth; and 2 questions on the quality of and satisfaction with telehealth. Statistical analysis included proportion of responses (of positive responses where a Likert scale was used) and regression analyses to determine the effect of demographic variables.

RESULTS: Of the 1820 participants who completed the survey, 88.3% (1607/1820) had engaged in a health care consultation of some type in the previous 12 months, and 69.3% (1114/1607) of those had used telehealth. The most common type of consultation was with a GP (959/1114, 86.1%). Older people were more likely to have had a health care consultation but less likely to have had a telehealth consultation. There was no difference in use of telehealth between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions; however, people with a bachelor’s degree or above were more likely to have used telehealth and to report a positive experience. A total of 87% (977/1114) of participants agreed or strongly agreed that they had received the information they required from their consultation, 71% (797/1114) agreed or strongly agreed that the outcome of their consultation was the same as it would have been face-to-face, 84% (931/1114) agreed or strongly agreed that the doctor or health care provider made them feel comfortable, 83% (924/1114) agreed or strongly agreed that the doctor or health care provider was equally as knowledgeable as providers they have seen in person; 57% (629/1114) of respondents reported that they would not have been able to access their health consultation if it were not for telehealth; 69% (765/1114) of respondents reported that they were satisfied with their telehealth consultation, and 60% (671/1114) reported that they would choose to continue to use telehealth in the future.

CONCLUSIONS: There was a relatively high level of engagement with telehealth over the 12 months leading up to the study period, and the majority of participants reported a positive experience and satisfaction with their telehealth consultation. While there was no indication that remoteness influenced telehealth usage, there remains work to be done to improve access to older people and those with less than a bachelor’s degree.

PMID:37590037 | DOI:10.2196/45016

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Clinical utility of shared book reading on YouTube: An analysis of metadata, evidence-based content, understandability, and actionability

Int J Speech Lang Pathol. 2023 Aug 17:1-10. doi: 10.1080/17549507.2023.2237703. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Digital content may increase parental access to training as well as the diversity of the training programs. YouTube videos may provide a platform from which professionals may adopt content for such programs. This study provides data regarding the clinical utility of YouTube videos about shared book reading (SBR) found on the United States (USA) and India channels.

METHOD: A cross-sectional analysis of videos about SBR was conducted to examine metadata, evidence-based content, understandability, and actionability. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse metadata and content. Health literacy concepts of understandability and actionability were measured, and descriptive statistics are reported.

RESULT: Of 800 videos identified, 10 included information related to storybook selection, dialogic reading, extra-textual strategies, and print-referencing strategies. These met adequate levels of understandability and actionability.

CONCLUSION: Results provide some direction and recommendations for parent-training programs in the USA and India. The study highlights the use of YouTube videos and suggests its utility as a supplement source within parent-training programs.

PMID:37590012 | DOI:10.1080/17549507.2023.2237703

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Application of Field Sterility to Safely Reduce Cost and Waste in Cleft Surgery

J Craniofac Surg. 2023 Aug 17. doi: 10.1097/SCS.0000000000009579. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Healthcare spending in the United States remains a major concern, requiring reforms to control spending and curtail costs. Medical supply is one of the largest expenses for hospitals and strategies should be utilized to reduce nonbeneficial service delivery, which increases cost without concomitant increase in value. Introduction of field sterility is one of the potential strategies that has been applied in several surgical disciplines to improve cost-efficiency by reducing overuse of resources and decreasing enormous medical waste. Of course, this must be applied without a diminution in safety.

METHODS: The PubMed, Medline, and Cochrane databases from 1980 to 2022 were used to review literature. Key words included “cleft surgery and field sterility,” “sterile gloves and oral surgery,” “oral surgery and field sterility,” “sterile techniques and cleft palate surgery,” “sterile versus nonsterile gloves,” “sterile and non-sterile gloves and minor surgery,” “skin laceration repair and sterile techniques,” “sterile gloves and wound suture,” “surgical site infection and field sterility,” “operating room versus clinical setting,” “operating rooms economics and hand surgery,” and “main operating room versus ambulatory.”

RESULTS: The literature search yielded 827 articles. Following evaluation of titles, abstracts, and manuscript contents, 23 articles were ultimately included, of which 10 discussed field sterility and cost-efficiency for cutaneous procedures, 9 hand surgery, and 4 oral surgery. There was no study evaluating field sterility application in cleft surgery. In the reviewed studies, no statistical significance was observed in surgical site infection (SSI) with substantial cost savings and medical waste reduction when hand procedures were performed in ambulatory settings with field sterility compared to the main operating room (OR). Furthermore, no difference was observed for SSI in wound closure, excision of skin lesions, or Mohs micrographic surgery when nonsterile gloves were used.

CONCLUSION: The incidence of infection following most cleft-related procedures remains low. As such, the application of field sterility may be ideal for this setting. The cost and waste associated with standard operating protocols are not warranted for many cleft procedures.

PMID:37590005 | DOI:10.1097/SCS.0000000000009579

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Medicaid Expansion of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and Participation of Patients With Medicaid in Cancer Clinical Trials

JAMA Oncol. 2023 Aug 17. doi: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.2800. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion resulted in increased use of Medicaid insurance nationwide. However, the association between Medicaid expansion and access to clinical trials has not been examined to date.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the implementation of ACA Medicaid expansion was associated with increased participation of patients with Medicaid insurance in cancer clinical trials.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data for this cohort study of 51 751 patients were from the SWOG Cancer Research Network. All patients aged 18 to 64 years and enrolled in treatment trials with Medicaid or private insurance between April 1, 1992, and February 29, 2020, were included. Interrupted time-series analysis with segmented logistic regression was used. The monthly unemployment rate and presidential administration were adjusted to reflect potential differences in Medicaid use associated with economic conditions and national administrative policies, respectively. Data analysis was conducted between June 22, 2021, and August 5, 2022.

EXPOSURE: Implementation of Medicaid expansion on January 1, 2014, was the independent exposure variable.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The number and proportion of patients by insurance type enrolled in cancer clinical trials over time were analyzed.

RESULTS: Overall, data for 51 751 patients were analyzed. Mean (SD) age was 50.6 (9.8) years, 67.3% of patients were female, 41.1% were younger than 50 years, and 9.1% used Medicaid. A 19% annual increase (odds ratio [OR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.28; P < .001) was identified in the odds of patients using Medicaid after the ACA Medicaid expansion, resulting in a 52% increase (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.29-1.78; P < .001) compared with what was expected in the number of Medicaid patients enrolled over time. The association was greater in states that adopted Medicaid expansion in 2014 to 2015 (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15-1.38; P < .001) compared with other states (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.96-1.21; P = .20; P = .04 for interaction). By February 2020, the proportion of patients with Medicaid insurance was 17.8% (95% CI, 15.0%-20.8%; P < .001), whereas the expected proportion had ACA Medicaid expansion not occurred was 6.9% (95% CI, 4.4%-10.3%; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Findings suggest that implementation of ACA Medicaid expansion was associated with increased participation of patients using Medicaid in cancer clinical trials. Improved participation in clinical trials for Medicaid-insured patients is critical for socioeconomically vulnerable patients seeking access to the newest treatments available in trials and for improving confidence that trial findings apply to patients of all backgrounds.

PMID:37590003 | DOI:10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.2800

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Deep Ocular Phenotyping Across Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma Genetic Burden

JAMA Ophthalmol. 2023 Aug 17. doi: 10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2023.3645. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Better understanding of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) genetics could enable timely screening and promote individualized disease risk prognostication.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate phenotypic features across genetic burden for POAG.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted from 2006 to 2010. Included participants were individuals from the UK Biobank aged 40 to 69 years. Individuals with non-POAG forms of glaucoma were excluded from the analysis. Data were statistically analyzed from October 2022 to January 2023.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: POAG prevalence based on structural coding, self-reports, and glaucoma-related traits.

RESULTS: Among 407 667 participants (mean [SD] age, 56.3 [8.1] years; 219 183 majority sex [53.8%]) were 14 171 POAG cases. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve for POAG detection was 0.748 in a model including polygenic risk score (PRS), age, sex, and ancestry. POAG prevalence in the highest decile of PRS was 7.4% (3005 of 40 644) vs 1.3% (544 of 40 795) in lowest decile (P < .001). A 1-SD increase in PRS was associated with 1.74 times higher odds of POAG (95% CI, 1.71-1.77), a 0.61-mm Hg increase in corneal-compensated intraocular pressure (IOP; 95% CI, 0.59-0.64), a -0.09-mm Hg decrease in corneal hysteresis (95% CI, -0.10 to -0.08), a 0.08-mm Hg increase in corneal resistance factor (95% CI, 0.06-0.09), and a -0.08-diopter decrease in spherical equivalent (95% CI, -0.11 to -0.07; P < .001 for all). A 1-SD increase in PRS was associated with a thinning of the macula-region retinal nerve fiber layer (mRNFL) of 0.14 μm and macular ganglion cell complex (GCC) of 0.26 μm (P < .001 for both). In the subset of individuals with fundus photographs, a 1-SD increase in PRS was associated with 1.42 times higher odds of suspicious optic disc features (95% CI, 1.19-1.69) and a 0.013 increase in cup-disc ratio (CDR; 95% CI, 0.012-0.014; P < .001 for both). A total of 22 of 5193 fundus photographs (0.4%) in decile 10 had disc hemorrhages, and 27 of 5257 (0.5%) had suspicious optic disc features compared with 9 of 5158 (0.2%) and 10 of 5219 (0.2%), respectively, in decile 1 (P < .001 for both). CDR in decile 10 was 0.46 compared with 0.41 in decile 1 (P < .001).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Results suggest that PRS identified a group of individuals at substantially higher risk for POAG. Higher genetic risk was associated with more advanced disease, namely higher CDR and corneal-compensated IOP, thinner mRNFL, and thinner GCC. Associations with POAG PRS and corneal hysteresis and greater prevalence of disc hemorrhages were identified. These results suggest that genetic risk is an increasingly important parameter for risk stratification to consider in clinical practice.

PMID:37589995 | DOI:10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2023.3645

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Three-Dimensional Structural Phenotype of the Optic Nerve Head as a Function of Glaucoma Severity

JAMA Ophthalmol. 2023 Aug 17. doi: 10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2023.3315. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: The 3-dimensional (3-D) structural phenotype of glaucoma as a function of severity was thoroughly described and analyzed, enhancing understanding of its intricate pathology beyond current clinical knowledge.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the 3-D structural differences in both connective and neural tissues of the optic nerve head (ONH) between different glaucoma stages using traditional and artificial intelligence-driven approaches.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional, clinic-based study recruited 541 Chinese individuals receiving standard clinical care at Singapore National Eye Centre, Singapore, and 112 White participants of a prospective observational study at Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos, Vilnius, Lithuania. The study was conducted from May 2022 to January 2023. All participants had their ONH imaged using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography and had their visual field assessed by standard automated perimetry.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: (1) Clinician-defined 3-D structural parameters of the ONH and (2) 3-D structural landmarks identified by geometric deep learning that differentiated ONHs among 4 groups: no glaucoma, mild glaucoma (mean deviation [MD], ≥-6.00 dB), moderate glaucoma (MD, -6.01 to -12.00 dB), and advanced glaucoma (MD, <-12.00 dB).

RESULTS: Study participants included 213 individuals without glaucoma (mean age, 63.4 years; 95% CI, 62.5-64.3 years; 126 females [59.2%]; 213 Chinese [100%] and 0 White individuals), 204 with mild glaucoma (mean age, 66.9 years; 95% CI, 66.0-67.8 years; 91 females [44.6%]; 178 Chinese [87.3%] and 26 White [12.7%] individuals), 118 with moderate glaucoma (mean age, 68.1 years; 95% CI, 66.8-69.4 years; 49 females [41.5%]; 97 Chinese [82.2%] and 21 White [17.8%] individuals), and 118 with advanced glaucoma (mean age, 68.5 years; 95% CI, 67.1-69.9 years; 43 females [36.4%]; 53 Chinese [44.9%] and 65 White [55.1%] individuals). The majority of ONH structural differences occurred in the early glaucoma stage, followed by a plateau effect in the later stages. Using a deep neural network, 3-D ONH structural differences were found to be present in both neural and connective tissues. Specifically, a mean of 57.4% (95% CI, 54.9%-59.9%, for no to mild glaucoma), 38.7% (95% CI, 36.9%-40.5%, for mild to moderate glaucoma), and 53.1 (95% CI, 50.8%-55.4%, for moderate to advanced glaucoma) of ONH landmarks that showed major structural differences were located in neural tissues with the remaining located in connective tissues.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study uncovered complex 3-D structural differences of the ONH in both neural and connective tissues as a function of glaucoma severity. Future longitudinal studies should seek to establish a connection between specific 3-D ONH structural changes and fast visual field deterioration and aim to improve the early detection of patients with rapid visual field loss in routine clinical care.

PMID:37589980 | DOI:10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2023.3315

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Effect of a Nutrition Intervention on Mediterranean Diet Adherence Among Firefighters: A Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial

JAMA Netw Open. 2023 Aug 1;6(8):e2329147. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.29147.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: US firefighters are a working population at risk of chronic diseases, including obesity, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. This risk may be mitigated by a healthy diet.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of a Mediterranean nutrition intervention using a behavioral/environmental approach (firefighter/fire station/home) at the individual participant level.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This 12-month cluster randomized clinical trial included US career firefighters from fire stations and homes within 2 Indiana fire departments. Participants were randomized by fire station to either Mediterranean diet or control (usual care). The study was conducted from October 2016 to December 2019, and data were analyzed in November 2022.

INTERVENTION: For the first 12 months of the study, firefighters located at fire stations randomized to the intervention group were provided with access to supermarket discounts and free samples of Mediterranean diet foods, online nutrition education platforms, email announcements and reminders, family and peer education and support, and chef demonstrations. Firefighters in fire stations allocated to the control group received no intervention and were instructed to follow their usual diet.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Change in dietary habits at 12 months as measured by a modified Mediterranean diet score (range, 0 to 51 points) at baseline and 6-month and 12-month follow-up. Cardiometabolic parameters were secondary outcomes.

RESULTS: Of 485 included firefighters, 458 (94.4%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 47 (7.5) years. A total of 241 firefighters (27 fire stations) were randomized to the Mediterranean nutrition intervention, and 244 (25 fire stations) were randomized to usual diet. Outcomes were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models for modified Mediterranean diet score at 6 months (n = 336) and 12 months (n = 260), adjusting for baseline age, sex, race and ethnicity, fire department, physical activity, and waist circumference. In the intervention group compared with the control group, the modified Mediterranean diet score significantly increased by 2.01 points (95% CI, 0.62-3.40; P = .005) at 6 months and by 2.67 points (95% CI, 1.14-4.20; P = .001) at 12 months. Among secondary outcomes, changes in cardiometabolic risk factors were not statistically significant at 1 year. Results from analyses with multilevel multiple imputation for missingness were similar.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this Mediterranean nutrition intervention of multicomponent behavioral/environmental changes, career firefighters had increased adherence to a Mediterranean diet.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02941757.

PMID:37589978 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.29147

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Adjusting FRAX Estimates of Fracture Probability Based on a Positive Vertebral Fracture Assessment

JAMA Netw Open. 2023 Aug 1;6(8):e2329253. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.29253.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: FRAX is the most widely used and validated fracture risk prediction tool worldwide. Vertebral fractures, which are an indicator of subsequent osteoporotic fractures, can be identified using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) vertebral fracture assessment (VFA).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the calibration of FRAX and develop a simple method for improving FRAX-predicted fracture probability in the presence of VFA-identified fracture.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prognostic study analyzed the DXA and VFA results of all individuals who underwent a VFA between March 31, 2010, and March 31, 2018, who were included in the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density Registry. These individuals were randomly assigned to either the development cohort or validation cohort. A modified algorithm-based qualitative approach was used by expert readers to code VFAs as positive (≥1 vertebral fractures detected) or negative (0 vertebral fracture detected). Statistical analysis was conducted from August 7, 2022, to May 22, 2023.

EXPOSURES: FRAX scores for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture were calculated with or without VFA results.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident fractures and death were ascertained using linked population-based health care provincial data. Cumulative incidence curves for MOF and hip fracture were constructed, including competing mortality, to predict the 10-year observed risk of fracture. The observed probability was compared with FRAX-predicted fracture probability with and without VFA results and recalibrated FRAX from derived multipliers.

RESULTS: The full cohort of 11 766 individuals was randomly allocated to the development cohort (n = 7854; 7349 females [93.6%]; mean [SD] age, 75.7 [6.8] years) or the validation cohort (n = 3912; 3713 females [94.9%]; mean [SD] age, 75.5 [6.9] years). Over a mean (SD) observation time of 3.8 (2.3) years, with the longest observation at 7.5 years, FRAX was well calibrated in subgroups with negative VFA results. For individuals without a prior clinical fracture but with a positive VFA result, the 10-year FRAX-predicted MOF probability was 16.3% (95% CI, 15.7%-16.8%) without VFA information and 23.4% (95% CI, 22.7%-24.1%) with VFA information. The observed 10-year probabilities were 26.9% (95% CI, 26.0%-27.8%) and 11.2% (95% CI, 10.3%-12.1%), respectively, resulting in recalibration multipliers of 1.15 (95% CI, 0.87-1.43) for MOF and 1.31 (95% CI, 0.75-1.87) for hip fracture. For individuals with a prior clinical fracture and a positive VFA result, the 10-year FRAX-predicted probabilities were 25.0% (95% CI, 24.2%-25.7%) for MOF and 9.3% (95% CI, 8.7%-10.0%) for hip fracture. The observed 10-year probabilities were 38.1% (95% CI, 37.0%-39.1%) for MOF and 16.4% (95% CI, 15.4%-17.4%) for hip fracture, resulting in a recalibration multiplier of 1.53 (95% CI, 1.10-1.96) for MOF and 1.76 (95% CI, 1.17-2.35) for hip fracture. Good calibration (>0.90) was confirmed using the derived multipliers in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Results of this prognostic study suggest that FRAX underestimated fracture risk in patients with VFA-identified fractures. Simple multipliers could recover FRAX calibration in individuals with VFA-identified fractures.

PMID:37589976 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.29253