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Machine learning is an effective method to predict the 90-day prognosis of patients with transient ischemic attack and minor stroke

BMC Med Res Methodol. 2022 Jul 16;22(1):195. doi: 10.1186/s12874-022-01672-z.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate factors related to the 90-day poor prognosis (mRS≥3) in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke, construct 90-day poor prognosis prediction models for patients with TIA or minor stroke, and compare the predictive performance of machine learning models and Logistic model.

METHOD: We selected TIA and minor stroke patients from a prospective registry study (CNSR-III). Demographic characteristics,smoking history, drinking history(≥20g/day), physiological data, medical history,secondary prevention treatment, in-hospital evaluation and education,laboratory data, neurological severity, mRS score and TOAST classification of patients were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed in the training set to identify predictors associated with poor outcome (mRS≥3). The predictors were used to establish machine learning models and the traditional Logistic model, which were randomly divided into the training set and test set according to the ratio of 70:30. The training set was used to construct the prediction model, and the test set was used to evaluate the effect of the model. The evaluation indicators of the model included the area under the curve (AUC) of the discrimination index and the Brier score (or calibration plot) of the calibration index.

RESULT: A total of 10967 patients with TIA and minor stroke were enrolled in this study, with an average age of 61.77 ± 11.18 years, and women accounted for 30.68%. Factors associated with the poor prognosis in TIA and minor stroke patients included sex, age, stroke history, heart rate, D-dimer, creatinine, TOAST classification, admission mRS, discharge mRS, and discharge NIHSS score. All models, both those constructed by Logistic regression and those by machine learning, performed well in predicting the 90-day poor prognosis (AUC >0.800). The best performing AUC in the test set was the Catboost model (AUC=0.839), followed by the XGBoost, GBDT, random forest and Adaboost model (AUCs equal to 0.838, 0, 835, 0.832, 0.823, respectively). The performance of Catboost and XGBoost in predicting poor prognosis at 90-day was better than the Logistic model, and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05). All models, both those constructed by Logistic regression and those by machine learning had good calibration.

CONCLUSION: Machine learning algorithms were not inferior to the Logistic regression model in predicting the poor prognosis of patients with TIA and minor stroke at 90-day. Among them, the Catboost model had the best predictive performance. All models provided good discrimination.

PMID:35842606 | DOI:10.1186/s12874-022-01672-z

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Musculoskeletal disorders in video gamers – a systematic review

BMC Musculoskelet Disord. 2022 Jul 16;23(1):678. doi: 10.1186/s12891-022-05614-0.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Video gaming is a recreational activity with yearly increasing popularity. It is mostly a sedentary behavior combined with repetitive movements of the upper limbs. If performed excessively, these movements may promote strain injuries and a sedentary lifestyle is one of the contributing factors to musculoskeletal disorders. Therefore, a systematic review was conducted to evaluate if video gaming negatively affects the musculoskeletal system of video gamers.

METHODS: PubMed, Web of Science and The Cochrane Library were systematically searched in order to identify relevant peer reviewed original articles in English published between 2000 and 2021. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method was used for the analysis. Studies were included when they contained investigations of changes of the musculoskeletal system due to video gaming in healthy individuals. Studies with participants older than 60 years or solely psychological, social or cardiovascular outcomes were excluded. An adapted version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used for the risk of bias analysis.

RESULTS: Sixteen observational studies involving a total of 62,987 participants met the inclusion criteria. A majority (11) of the studies reported statistical negative musculoskeletal changes due to video game playtime. Four studies did not report changes and one study found no effect of video game playtime on the musculoskeletal system. Out of the eleven studies, which demonstrated a negative impact of video game playtime on the musculoskeletal system, the most reported painful body parts were the neck (n = 4), shoulder (n = 4) and back (n = 3). Ten studies reported odds ratios (OR) for the dependence of the appearance of musculoskeletal disorders on video game playtime. In eight studies OR were significantly increased (1.3-5.2).

CONCLUSION: Eleven out of twelve studies demonstrated a negative impact of video game playtime on the musculoskeletal system. In particular, excessive video game playtimes (> 3 h/day) seemed to be a predictor for the appearance of musculoskeletal disorders. Due to their great popularity across multiple generations, specific and tailored prevention and health promotion programs for video gamers need to be developed to counteract this important public health issue.

PMID:35842605 | DOI:10.1186/s12891-022-05614-0

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Preliminary study of the social withdrawal (hikikomori) spectrum in French adolescents: focusing on the differences in pathology and related factors compared with Japanese adolescents

BMC Psychiatry. 2022 Jul 16;22(1):477. doi: 10.1186/s12888-022-04116-6.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Social withdrawal (hikikomori) has become an internationally recognized phenomenon, but its pathology and related factors are not yet fully known. We previously conducted a statistical case-control study on adolescent patients with hikikomori in Japan, which revealed the non-specificity of pathology in patients with hikikomori. Further, environmental factors, such as the lack of communication between parents and Internet overuse, were found to be significant predictors of hikikomori severity. Here, we aimed to conduct a similar preliminary case-control study in France and to compare the results with those from the study conducted in Japan.

METHODS: Parents of middle school students who underwent psychiatric outpatient treatment for hikikomori (n = 10) and control group parents (n = 115) completed the Child Behavior Checklist to evaluate their child’s psychopathological characteristics and the Parental Assessment of Environment and Hikikomori Severity Scales, as in our previous study in Japan. We compared the descriptive statistics and intergroup differences in France with those from the previous study conducted in Japan. In the multiple regression analysis to find predictors of hikikomori severity in French and also Japanese subjects, the same dependent and independent variables were chosen for the present study (both differed from the previous study). These were used in order to make accurate intercountry comparisons.

RESULTS: The comparisons revealed no differences in the pathology of hikikomori between Japan and France. Specifically, both studies found similarly increased scores for all symptom scales, with no specific bias. However, the statistical predictors of hikikomori severity in France (lack of communication between parents and child and lack of communication with the community) differed from those in Japan (lack of communication between parents).

CONCLUSION: Hikikomori in Japan and France could be considered essentially the same phenomenon; moreover, our findings demonstrated the universal non-specificity and unbiasedness of the hikikomori pathology. This suggests that hikikomori is not a single clinical category with a specific psychopathology; instead, it is a common phenotype with various underlying pathologies. However, different strategies may be required in each country to prevent the onset and progression of hikikomori.

PMID:35842596 | DOI:10.1186/s12888-022-04116-6

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Association between triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and three-month outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke: a second analysis based on a prospective cohort study

BMC Neurol. 2022 Jul 16;22(1):263. doi: 10.1186/s12883-022-02791-2.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Evidence regarding the relationship between serum triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-c) ratio and outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients is still mixed. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to explore the link between the TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes in patients with AIS.

METHODS: This was a second analysis based on a cohort study. The study population was 1764 patients with AIS collected from January 2010 to December 2016 at a hospital in South Korea. We used a binary logistic regression model to assess the linear association between the TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes for AIS patients. A generalized additive model (GAM) and smooth curve fitting (penalized spline method) was conducted to explore the nonlinear relationship between TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes for AIS patients. Additionally, we compute the inflection point using a recursive algorithm and then build a two-piece binary logistic regression model on both sides of the inflection point. A log-likelihood ratio test was used to determine the most appropriate model describing the association of TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes in patients with AIS.

RESULTS: The incidence rate of unfavorable outcomes was 28.2%, and the median TG/HDL-c ratio was 2.130. After adjusting covariates, the results of the binary logistic regression model suggested that the relationship between the TG/HDL-c ratio and the risk of unfavorable outcomes for AIS patients was not statistically significant. However, there was a nonlinear relationship between them, and the inflection point of the TG/HDL-c ratio was 3.515. On the left side of the inflection point, each 1-unit increase in the TG/HDL-c ratio was associated with a 22.6% lower risk of unfavorable outcomes (OR = 0.774, 95%CI:0.656 to 0.914, p = 0.002). On the right side of the inflection point, the effect size (OR) was 1.195 (95%CI:1.004 to1.423, p = 0.003).

CONCLUSION: There is a nonlinear relationship and threshold effect between the TG/HDL-c ratio and 3-month unfavorable outcomes in AIS patients. When the TG/HDL-c ratio is lower than 3.515, the TG/HDL-c ratio is significantly negatively related to the risk of unfavorable outcomes. When the TG/HDL-c ratio is greater than 3.515, the TG/HDL-c ratio was positively associated with the risk of unfavorable outcomes in AIS patients. This provides a reference for optimizing lipidemia intervention and promoting clinical communication in patients with AIS.

PMID:35842590 | DOI:10.1186/s12883-022-02791-2

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The influence mechanism of community-built environment on the health of older adults: from the perspective of low-income groups

BMC Geriatr. 2022 Jul 16;22(1):590. doi: 10.1186/s12877-022-03278-y.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: With the rapid development of population ageing, the international community has been paying more attention to the health problems of older adults and the age-friendly community. But there has not been enough discussion about the internal mechanism of the community-built environment that influences the health of older adults. The aim of our study was to explore the complex relationships among community-built environment, social participation, outdoor exercise, and health of older adults, as well as the differences among older adults in different income groups, particular attention was paid to the situation of low-income group.

METHODS: This study used descriptive statistical analysis and structural equation Modeling (SEM) to make a group comparison among older adults in different income groups. The data of this study came from a sample survey in Shanghai, China.

RESULTS: The study found that health difference exists among older adults in China: the lower the income, the worse the community-built environment, the worse the health. The community-built environment had an important impact on the health of older adults, especially the low-income older adults. And the community-built environment influenced the health of older adults through the intermediary role of outdoor exercise and social participation. Furthermore, the lower the income level of older adults, the stronger the direct effect of the community-built environment on their health; the higher the income level of older adults, the stronger the mediating effect of outdoor exercise and social participation on the impact of the community-built environment on their health.

CONCLUSION: Governments should pay more attention to the health and living conditions of low-income older adults and take proactive steps to help them. Community design and construction should pay more attention to the demands of low-income older adult groups, which will help to improve the health inequality of older adults, consequently enhancing older adults’ overall health.

PMID:35842581 | DOI:10.1186/s12877-022-03278-y

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Pharmacokinetic Drug-Drug Interaction Studies Between Trilaciclib and Midazolam, Metformin, Rifampin, Itraconazole, and Topotecan in Healthy Volunteers and Patients with Extensive-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Clin Drug Investig. 2022 Jul 16. doi: 10.1007/s40261-022-01179-x. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Trilaciclib is a cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibitor indicated to decrease the incidence of chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression in patients with extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer. Trilaciclib is a substrate and time-dependent inhibitor of cytochrome P450 3A4 and an inhibitor of multidrug and toxin extrusion 1, multidrug and toxin extrusion 2-K, organic cation transporter 1, and organic cation transporter 2. Here, we investigate the pharmacokinetic drug-drug interaction potential of trilaciclib.

METHODS: Two phase I studies were conducted as prospective, open-label, fixed-sequence drug-drug interaction studies in healthy subjects (n = 57, n = 20) to investigate potential interactions between intravenously administered trilaciclib (200 or 240 mg/m2) and orally administered midazolam (5 mg), metformin (1000 mg), itraconazole (200 mg), and rifampin (600 mg). A population pharmacokinetic model was fit to phase Ib/IIa data in patients with extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer (n = 114) to assess the impact of trilaciclib dose and exposure (area under the plasma concentration-time curve) on topotecan clearance.

RESULTS: Coadministration with trilaciclib had minimal effects on the exposure (area under the plasma concentration-time curve from time 0 to infinity) of midazolam (geometric least-square mean ratio [GMR] vs midazolam alone 1.065; 90% confidence interval [CI] 0.984-1.154) but statistically significantly increased plasma exposure (GMR 1.654; 90% CI 1.472-1.858) and decreased renal clearance (GMR 0.633; 90% CI 0.572-0.701) of metformin. Coadministration of trilaciclib with rifampin or itraconazole decreased trilaciclib area under the plasma concentration-time curve from time 0 to infinity by 17.3% (GMR 0.827; 90% CI 0.785-0.871) and 14.0% (GMR 0.860; 0.820-0.902), respectively, vs trilaciclib alone. Population pharmacokinetic modeling showed no significant effect of trilaciclib on topotecan clearance.

CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the drug-drug interaction and safety profiles of trilaciclib in these studies support its continued use in patients with extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Study 106: EudraCT number: 2019-002303-18; Study 114: not applicable; Study 03: Clinicaltrials.org: NCT02514447; August 2015.

PMID:35842567 | DOI:10.1007/s40261-022-01179-x

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Comparison of Efficacy of Aspirin Plus EOX vs. EOX Alone in Patients with Locally Advanced and Metastatic Gastric Cancer: a Randomized Clinical Trial

J Gastrointest Cancer. 2022 Jul 16. doi: 10.1007/s12029-022-00845-9. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The role of aspirin in cancer prevention has been well defined; the last decade revealed its therapeutic role with improved efficacy when aspirin was added to capecitabine in heavily pre-treated metastatic colorectal cancer. Aspirin affects tumour growth through the PI3K pathway, which regulates apoptosis and autophagy. The objective was to compare the efficacy of aspirin plus epirubicin, oxaliplatin, capecitabine (EOX) chemotherapy versus EOX alone in locally advanced and metastatic gastric cancer.

METHODS: All patients with advanced gastric cancer reporting to the Department of Medical oncology between March 2017 and May 2019 were screened for study eligibility. They were randomly assigned to standard EOX with or without aspirin at a daily dose of 150 mg. Tumour measurements were assessed at baseline and after 3-4 cycles by an independent blinded radiologist according to RECIST criteria 1.1. Toxicity profiles were recorded as per CTCAE v 4.03. Per-protocol group was identified as 70 patients. The primary endpoint was overall response rates in the per-protocol group (defined as patients who received a minimum of 3 cycles and had an evaluable response after randomization). The secondary endpoints included toxicity analysis, progression-free survival, and overall survival.

RESULTS: Ninety-five patients who fulfilled the study inclusion and exclusion criteria were randomized to group 1 EOX (50) or group 2 EOX plus aspirin (45). Seventy patients were included for the per-protocol analysis. The overall response rate in group 1 was 27% compared to group 2, which was 42%, P = 0.176. The median duration of follow was 29 (18.56-39.45) months. The median overall survival (n = 95) of group 1 versus group 2 was 11 (8.58-13.42) months and 10 (6.86-13.14) months, respectively, P = 0.90. There was no statistical significance in the overall survival per-protocol analysis (n = 70) between group one 12 (8.75-15.25) months versus group two 12 (6.21-17.79) months, P = 0.50.

CONCLUSIONS: There was no improvement in the response rates, progression-free survival, and overall survival on adding aspirin to EOX chemotherapy in locally advanced and metastatic gastric cancer in an unselected population. A further role of PI3K mutation as a biomarker needs to be evaluated in this setting.

PMID:35842566 | DOI:10.1007/s12029-022-00845-9

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Early and late detection of cancer in Georgia: Evidence from a population-based cancer registry, 2018-2019

Cancer Epidemiol. 2022 Jul 13;80:102216. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2022.102216. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Georgia is an upper middle-income country, which has lower cancer survival rates than most of the countries in the World Health Organization European region, as well as compared to many other post-Soviet states and upper middle-income countries. The purpose of our study was to analyse the cancer stage distribution data of Georgia as a first step towards identifying the areas of early cancer detection in the country that might need improvement or require further research.

METHODS: Descriptive analysis of the population-based cancer registry of Georgia was performed using the data for the period of 01.01.2018-31.12.2019.

RESULTS: Around 57 % of cancers in males and 56 % of cancers in females were amenable to early detection. At least 35.7 % of these cancers in males and 44.2 % in females were detected early. 15.2 % (n = 964) of male and 35.3 % (n = 3179) of female cancer patients met the age criteria for the respective cancer screening programmes. Breast, colorectal, cervical and stomach cancers contributed to 58.7 % of all late-stage cancers in females. Lung, prostate, colorectal, laryngeal and stomach cancers made up 72.4 % of all late-stage cancer cases among males. At least 83.8 % (n = 1438) of thyroid cancers in females and 84.2 % (n = 246) of thyroid cancers in males were diagnosed at stage I. Moreover, stage I thyroid cancer cases made up 50.7 % of all stage I cancer cases detected in women and 25.6 % of all stage I cancers in men. At least 42.4 % of stage I thyroid cancers in females and 37.4 % of stage I thyroid cancers in males were papillary microcarcinomas.

CONCLUSION: The potential of early cancer detection is underutilised in Georgia and there is a need to strengthen screening and especially early diagnosis in the country. The possibility of thyroid cancer overdiagnosis requires further investigation.

PMID:35841760 | DOI:10.1016/j.canep.2022.102216

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Prospective feasibility study of a mindfulness-based program for breast cancer patients in the southeastern US

Complement Ther Clin Pract. 2022 Jul 9;49:101639. doi: 10.1016/j.ctcp.2022.101639. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Mindfulness interventions can improve psychological distress and quality of life (QoL) in cancer survivors. Few mindfulness programs for cancer recovery exist in Southeastern U.S. The primary objective of this study was to assess the feasibility of a modified mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) program for breast cancer patients in Birmingham, Alabama. The secondary objective was to explore potential program effects on mindfulness skills and QoL.

METHODS: This study was a prospective, quasi-experimental feasibility study conducted over 10 months at a university hospital. Feasibility was achieved if 80% of eligible patients screened enrolled in the study and 70% of enrolled patients attended all 8 program sessions. Effectiveness was estimated by changes in mindfulness and QoL indicators measured with validated scales administered at 3 time points and assessed with a non-parametric Friedman test. Sessions included meditation, yoga, and an attention practice called body scan. There were 3 groups of 2-5 patients.

RESULTS: The sample totaled 12 patients. Forty-four percent (12/27) of eligible patients enrolled in the study, and two out of 12 enrolled patients completed 8 program sessions, resulting in 16.7% (2/12) retention. However, more than half (66.7%) of participants completed at least 7 sessions. Between baseline and 8-week follow-up, patients demonstrated statistically significant improvements in distress, general wellbeing, and fatigue-related QoL.

CONCLUSIONS: Feasibility objectives were not achieved. However, a majority of participants (66.7%) completed 7 of 8 program sessions. Program effects were promising for distress, fatigue, and wellbeing. Results warrant further research on MBSR-like programs for breast cancer patients in Alabama.

PMID:35841719 | DOI:10.1016/j.ctcp.2022.101639

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Patient-reported outcomes and morbidity after head and neck reconstructions: An evaluation of fibular and scapular free flaps

Oral Oncol. 2022 Jul 13;132:106019. doi: 10.1016/j.oraloncology.2022.106019. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Fibular (FFF) and scapular free flaps (SFF) are versatile tissue transfers for head and neck reconstruction. However, their relative morbidity has been sparsely studied. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the morbidity and patient-reported outcome measures of these two reconstructive options.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Case series of patients from 2017 to 2020 who underwent a FFF or SFF for head and neck ablation. Demographic and surgical outcome measures, such as Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), anesthetic time, donor site morbidity, and perioperative morbidity score (POMs) were extracted. Patients were contacted to complete the Decision Regret Scale (DRS), University of Washington Quality of Life (UW-QoL), Oral Health Impact-14, and limb specific functional outcome measures. Statistical analyses included a linear regression.

RESULTS: In total, 97 FFF (mean age 58.5, 62.9% male) and 55 SFF (mean age 64.8, 63.6% male) were included. Total surgical time was higher in the SFF group (p < 0.05) and they had more comorbidities (p < 0.01). SFF patients had lower POM scores on post-operative day three (p < 0.05) while FFF patients scored better on the UW-QoL Physical Domain (p < 0.01). The DRS for both groups (FFF mean DRS 22.7, SFF mean DRS 19.2) was similar. When adjusted for patient morbidity, however, the SFF group had less decisional regret (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: This is the largest comprehensive evaluation of patient-reported outcome measures for FFF and SFFs. SFFs required longer surgical times but had less early morbidity than FFFs. Patients who underwent either reconstructions reported mild decisional regret, proving these are generally well tolerated procedures.

PMID:35841704 | DOI:10.1016/j.oraloncology.2022.106019